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Insider's Vegas NFL wiseguy picks every game against the spread
LAS VEGAS – Welcome to "Tuley's Take -- Take 2" as we break down each week's NFL games from an against-the-spread standpoint and Vegas point of view.
Last season, I went a solid 72-58-2 (55.4 percent) against the spread, though it was a little disappointing after hovering around 75 percent for the first five weeks. But this is meant as a realistic look at the betting market, and no one can maintain a winning percentage like that. I'll happily take 55 percent every season (just wish it was that easy).
To be clear, I'm a journalist first and a handicapper second. I don't pretend to be a professional bettor, but I approach sports betting using the lessons I've learned covering the race and sports books in Vegas since 1998 for various publications and websites, including GamingToday (a weekly Vegas newspaper), Daily Racing Form (the horseplayer's bible) and my own ViewFromVegas.com website.
Each week, we'll list every game along with the current spread, taking a look at the public's perception of the matchup, the wiseguys' view and then my own "take" on the game. Just like the sharps in Vegas, I don't bet every game, but rather try to pick my spots. Due to popular demand, I'll give a "pool play" for those looking for an opinion of some sort.
I'm a "dog-or-pass" bettor -- more than even most wiseguys. Some people take that to mean I like every underdog, but that's not true, as I pass on many underdogs if I don't think I'm getting enough points in that particular matchup. Hopefully you weren't with me on the Ravens in Thursday night's opener. That won't be tracked as part of our purposes here, but I gave it out on the "Thursday Night Primer" piece and will contribute to that each week.
This season, my aim is to provide more insight into how the pros here in Vegas view the games, and to pick more winners along the way (again, 55 percent is an attainable goal). Good luck in Week 1!
Last Year: 72-58-2 ATS (55.4 percent)
Note: Public Consensus Pick percentages from ESPN Insider's PickCenter as of late Thursday.
Matchup: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Current spread: Patriots minus-9.5 Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Patriots
Public perception: The public loves to bet the Patriots at any price. There's also the sentiment out there that it's a lot to ask for a rookie quarterback like EJ Manuel to make his first NFL start against Bill Belichick. There's some evidence to back that up, with the Boston Herald reporting the Pats are 13-4 straight up against rookie quarterbacks in the Belichick era. They're also 4-0 SU and 3-1 against the spread against first-time starters.
Wiseguys' view: Laying more than a touchdown on the road in the NFL is the quickest way to the poorhouse, so the wiseguys know it's "dog or pass" here. In fact, over the last three years, home dogs of 8 or more points are 24-3 ATS.
Tuley's Take: I've been on a lot of those big home dogs and can't resist this one either. I'm also not so sure the Patriots can just "flip the switch" after a rough offseason and preseason with Tom Brady breaking in a whole new offense. The pick: Bills
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Current spread: Steelers minus-7 Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Titans
Public perception: This might be Exhibit A about how the public doesn't automatically back the favorite anymore. The Steelers have long been a popular team, but even the public is thinking that a full touchdown is too many points for them to lay here.
Wiseguys' view: There was some early sharp money this summer to push this from the opening number of 6.5, but it has pretty much just sat there ever since.
Tuley's Take: I think the Steelers have been passed by the Bengals and are the third-best team in their division, but I haven't seen enough from the Titans to get me to bet them in this spot. I feel my only hope would be a close game and cheering for the Tennessee defense to keep the Steelers from extending a late lead or praying for a back-door cover. And I wouldn't feel too confident in either scenario. The pick: Pass (pool play: Titans)
Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Current spread: Saints minus-3 Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Falcons
Public perception: Everyone is expecting the Saints (at least on offense) to revert to form with Sean Payton back from his year-long suspension. The Falcons are getting slightly more support right now, but that should swing the other way over the weekend.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps know that as great as the Saints' offense should be, the defense will be just as bad. If this line gets pushed to 3.5 (and there's some books with added juice on the Saints minus-3), expect the sharps to snap those up pretty quick.
Tuley's Take: Atlanta's offense, with Steven Jackson upgrading the running game to go with the that passing attack, should be just as potent as New Orleans'. And the Falcons' defense should be more capable of a stop or two as the Saints' already sieve-like defense has also lost Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith to injuries. The pick: Falcons
Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Current spread: Buccaneers minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Buccaneers
Public perception: No team is reviled by the public (and the New York tabloids) these days more than the Jets. Even being at home and playing a middle-of-the-road team like the Bucs (and getting more than a field goal), 70 percent of the public is on the Bucs on PickCenter, and I've seen higher percentages at other bet-tracking sites this week.
Wiseguys' view: The home dog will be tempting for some sharps, especially as the line continues to climb.
Tuley's Take: I'll be kicking myself if the Jets win or cover, because I believe that as much as the organization is in disarray and the fact they're starting rookie Geno Smith (probably before he's ready due to the Mark Sanchez injury), I still don't think they should be a dog of more than a field goal to the Bucs. I love home dogs, but it's hard to pull the trigger here. The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets)
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Current spread: Chiefs minus-4 Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Chiefs
Public perception: It's no surprise that the public is loading up on the Chiefs, since they rarely back the Jaguars no matter the spread, and that's worked out fine -- Jacksonville has had only one winning record ATS over the past five seasons (9-7 in 2010) and was 2-6 ATS at home last season, when it was a favorite on only one occasion.
Wiseguys' view: The Chiefs are one of the wiseguys' favorite teams heading into the season, as some think they're the second-best team in the AFC West behind the Broncos. The mix of sharp and square money should only send this line higher.
Tuley's Take: I'm not as high on the Chiefs as others here in Vegas, but I'll wait for my spots to back the Jaguars and hope they get blown out here to escalate the inflated prices against them down the road (and also hopefully inflate the Chiefs' line so I can fade them in coming weeks). The pick: Pass (pool play: Chiefs)
Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Current spread: Bears minus-3 Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: The Bengals have made the playoffs the past two seasons, so the public has taken notice and they're not afraid to back them. The "Hard Knocks" factor is likely adding to their popularity as well.
Wiseguys' view: As alluded to in the Steelers' breakdown, the Bengals are the co-favorites with the Ravens to win the AFC North, and many sharps think the Bengals should be favored. This line isn't expected to go any higher, so most wiseguys have either grabbed the plus-3 or passed.
Tuley's Take: The Bengals should be strong on both sides of the ball this season. A lot of people have these two teams in their power rankings, but I have the Bengals a few points higher and think this line should be closer to pick-em, even with the Bears having home-field advantage. The Bengals have shown they can take their show on the road the last two years, as they're 10-4-2 ATS (not including playoff trips to Houston). The pick: Bengals
Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Current spread: Pick-em Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Browns
Public perception: This game opened Dolphins minus-1 back in the spring and has hovered around "pick-em" status. We're seeing more support come on the Browns, but this will be one of the lowest-handle games on the Week 1 card.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game, as both teams are regarded as under-the-radar teams who could see betting value throughout the year.
Tuley's Take: I'm in the camp that likes both of these teams as live underdogs. Assuming Brandon Weeden continues to improve under offensive coordinator Norv Turner (who is more suited for this role than head coach), I think the Browns are better overall and should be favored by a little more. But I'll sit this one out and watch for better opportunities. The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns)
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Current spread: Seahawks minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: The Panthers have a lot of people on their bandwagon after they won and covered five of their final six games last year, but it's still nothing compared to how many people like the Seahawks heading into this season.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are high on both these teams as well and not likely to take a consensus side.
Tuley's Take: The Seahawks were good to me last year, but they're certainly not going to be offering as much betting value -- at least early this season. But in order to fade them, as I expect to do when they're sure to be overpriced at home, I would need more points here. The pick: Pass (pool play: Seahawks)
Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Current spread: Lions minus-5 Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Lions
Public perception: The action has been pretty split on this game. The public is set to fade the Vikings as Minnesota is not expected to repeat last season's playoff run, but they're not confident enough in the Lions to load up on them.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are also looking to fade the Vikings, so it's a little surprising that this number hasn't steamed higher. Like the public, maybe the presence of superstar Adrian Peterson makes them reluctant to pull the trigger.
Tuley's Take: I definitely wish the Vikings had opened as a favorite against a lesser team so I'd be able to fade them right away. But I'm not going to lay the points with the Lions. The pick: Pass (pool play: Lions)
Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Current spread: Colts minus-9.5 Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Colts
Public perception: The public loved the Chuck Pagano feel-good story last year, but the amount of people on them this week is probably more due to fading the Raiders.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps aren't cutting in line to bet the Raiders, so those who are high on Andrew Luck & Co. are helping to push this line higher toward double digits.
Tuley's Take: Like the Vikings, I'm ready to fade the Colts this season, but even though I'll be cheering for Darren McFadden to have a big day for my fantasy team, this isn't enough points for me to take the Raiders. The pick: Pass (pool play: Colts, but only slightly, as I'd flip to the Raiders at plus-10.5)
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Current spread: Rams minus-4.5 Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Cardinals
Public perception: The East Coast will mostly ignore this game featuring two lesser teams in the NFC West, but there's been a little more hype on the Cardinals with Carson Palmer hooking up with Larry Fitzgerald and the defense looking improved in the preseason.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys loved the Rams last season, as they were 11-5 ATS (second only to the Redskins at 12-4), but that was mostly as underdogs and they're not as likely to back them as favorites. The sharps are also high on the Cardinals, as they're one of the biggest future-book liabilities at some sports books.
Tuley's Take: I was hoping the Cardinals would fly further under the radar to present some more value early in the season, but instead we've seen this line drop from the opener of St. Louis minus-6 back in April. Still, with it above Rams minus-4, I think there's value as there's not much difference between these two teams, especially if the Cards' defense keeps up its ball-hawking ways exhibited in the preseason. The pick: Cardinals
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Current spread: 49ers minus-4.5 Public consensus pick: 57 percent on Packers
Public perception: I was surprised to see the percentage so high on the Packers (even with them being a public team, and I'm not talking about their stockholders), but that's probably just due to the line being more than a field goal and more likely to head in their direction than toward a touchdown for the 49ers.
Wiseguys' view: This is one of the marquee matchups of the week, but that doesn't mean the wiseguys will get involved if they don't see value. Both teams are in the top echelon of the league, and the sharps just wish they were in a position to back them as a spoiler instead of having them play each other.
Tuley's Take: It's rare to get the Packers as an underdog, but I can't get on them here. Visions of them being unable to contain Colin Kaepernick & Co. in their 45-31 divisional loss keep running through my head. The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers)
Matchup: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Current spread: Cowboys minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Giants
Public perception: Are the Cowboys even "America's Team" anymore? I don't think so as bettors have had no problem fading them in recent years. Plus, the Giants always get their share of support.
Wiseguys' view: The NFC East is pretty evenly matched, so the sharps have no problem seeing value in getting three points plus the hook. I would expect this to close on three.
Tuley's Take: The Giants have been great on the road in the Eli Manning era and are 4-0 in the new Cowboys Stadium. The Cowboys haven't had any kind of home-field advantage, as they were 0-6 ATS as home (chalk) last year. I'd probably be on them even if the line was less than a field goal, but the hook is a bonus. The pick: Giants
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Current spread: Redskins minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 59 percent picks Redskins
Public perception: As mentioned above, the Redskins were money last year at 12-4 ATS, so it's not surprising that the public is right back on them with Robert Griffin III cleared to play.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps bet this down from an opener of Washington minus-5.5 over the summer. Part of that was due to the uncertainty whether RGIII would be back in time, but also with the Eagles' stock on the rise.
Tuley's Take: I'm high on the Eagles, at least on the offensive side of the ball with Chip Kelly bringing his hurry-up style to Philly. The only reason this won't be in my SuperContest 5 is because if RGIII is ready, this style of sandlot football is right up his alley, which concerns me a little. But I think Philly is the right side. The pick: Eagles
Matchup: Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers
Current spread: Texans minus-4 Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Texans
Public perception: The amount of support on the Texans will likely result in just as many people fading the Chargers as the public has soured on San Diego after several years of underachievement.
Wiseguys' view: There doesn't appear to be any clear-cut side that the wiseguys will land on here, though home underdogs on Monday night are always tempting (though it's more of a 50-50 proposition in recent years after being a big money-making play back in the days of Howard Cosell, Frank Gifford and "Dandy" Don Meredith).
Tuley's Take: I'm not as down on the Chargers as a lot of people and, in fact, expect them to improve in the post-Norv Turner era. The key will be if the defense can do enough to contain the Texans' high-powered offense as the Chargers should be able to put points on the board as well. The pick: Chargers
LAS VEGAS – Welcome to "Tuley's Take -- Take 2" as we break down each week's NFL games from an against-the-spread standpoint and Vegas point of view.
Last season, I went a solid 72-58-2 (55.4 percent) against the spread, though it was a little disappointing after hovering around 75 percent for the first five weeks. But this is meant as a realistic look at the betting market, and no one can maintain a winning percentage like that. I'll happily take 55 percent every season (just wish it was that easy).
To be clear, I'm a journalist first and a handicapper second. I don't pretend to be a professional bettor, but I approach sports betting using the lessons I've learned covering the race and sports books in Vegas since 1998 for various publications and websites, including GamingToday (a weekly Vegas newspaper), Daily Racing Form (the horseplayer's bible) and my own ViewFromVegas.com website.
Each week, we'll list every game along with the current spread, taking a look at the public's perception of the matchup, the wiseguys' view and then my own "take" on the game. Just like the sharps in Vegas, I don't bet every game, but rather try to pick my spots. Due to popular demand, I'll give a "pool play" for those looking for an opinion of some sort.
I'm a "dog-or-pass" bettor -- more than even most wiseguys. Some people take that to mean I like every underdog, but that's not true, as I pass on many underdogs if I don't think I'm getting enough points in that particular matchup. Hopefully you weren't with me on the Ravens in Thursday night's opener. That won't be tracked as part of our purposes here, but I gave it out on the "Thursday Night Primer" piece and will contribute to that each week.
This season, my aim is to provide more insight into how the pros here in Vegas view the games, and to pick more winners along the way (again, 55 percent is an attainable goal). Good luck in Week 1!
Last Year: 72-58-2 ATS (55.4 percent)
Note: Public Consensus Pick percentages from ESPN Insider's PickCenter as of late Thursday.
Matchup: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Current spread: Patriots minus-9.5 Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Patriots
Public perception: The public loves to bet the Patriots at any price. There's also the sentiment out there that it's a lot to ask for a rookie quarterback like EJ Manuel to make his first NFL start against Bill Belichick. There's some evidence to back that up, with the Boston Herald reporting the Pats are 13-4 straight up against rookie quarterbacks in the Belichick era. They're also 4-0 SU and 3-1 against the spread against first-time starters.
Wiseguys' view: Laying more than a touchdown on the road in the NFL is the quickest way to the poorhouse, so the wiseguys know it's "dog or pass" here. In fact, over the last three years, home dogs of 8 or more points are 24-3 ATS.
Tuley's Take: I've been on a lot of those big home dogs and can't resist this one either. I'm also not so sure the Patriots can just "flip the switch" after a rough offseason and preseason with Tom Brady breaking in a whole new offense. The pick: Bills
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Current spread: Steelers minus-7 Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Titans
Public perception: This might be Exhibit A about how the public doesn't automatically back the favorite anymore. The Steelers have long been a popular team, but even the public is thinking that a full touchdown is too many points for them to lay here.
Wiseguys' view: There was some early sharp money this summer to push this from the opening number of 6.5, but it has pretty much just sat there ever since.
Tuley's Take: I think the Steelers have been passed by the Bengals and are the third-best team in their division, but I haven't seen enough from the Titans to get me to bet them in this spot. I feel my only hope would be a close game and cheering for the Tennessee defense to keep the Steelers from extending a late lead or praying for a back-door cover. And I wouldn't feel too confident in either scenario. The pick: Pass (pool play: Titans)
Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Current spread: Saints minus-3 Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Falcons
Public perception: Everyone is expecting the Saints (at least on offense) to revert to form with Sean Payton back from his year-long suspension. The Falcons are getting slightly more support right now, but that should swing the other way over the weekend.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps know that as great as the Saints' offense should be, the defense will be just as bad. If this line gets pushed to 3.5 (and there's some books with added juice on the Saints minus-3), expect the sharps to snap those up pretty quick.
Tuley's Take: Atlanta's offense, with Steven Jackson upgrading the running game to go with the that passing attack, should be just as potent as New Orleans'. And the Falcons' defense should be more capable of a stop or two as the Saints' already sieve-like defense has also lost Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith to injuries. The pick: Falcons
Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Current spread: Buccaneers minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Buccaneers
Public perception: No team is reviled by the public (and the New York tabloids) these days more than the Jets. Even being at home and playing a middle-of-the-road team like the Bucs (and getting more than a field goal), 70 percent of the public is on the Bucs on PickCenter, and I've seen higher percentages at other bet-tracking sites this week.
Wiseguys' view: The home dog will be tempting for some sharps, especially as the line continues to climb.
Tuley's Take: I'll be kicking myself if the Jets win or cover, because I believe that as much as the organization is in disarray and the fact they're starting rookie Geno Smith (probably before he's ready due to the Mark Sanchez injury), I still don't think they should be a dog of more than a field goal to the Bucs. I love home dogs, but it's hard to pull the trigger here. The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets)
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Current spread: Chiefs minus-4 Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Chiefs
Public perception: It's no surprise that the public is loading up on the Chiefs, since they rarely back the Jaguars no matter the spread, and that's worked out fine -- Jacksonville has had only one winning record ATS over the past five seasons (9-7 in 2010) and was 2-6 ATS at home last season, when it was a favorite on only one occasion.
Wiseguys' view: The Chiefs are one of the wiseguys' favorite teams heading into the season, as some think they're the second-best team in the AFC West behind the Broncos. The mix of sharp and square money should only send this line higher.
Tuley's Take: I'm not as high on the Chiefs as others here in Vegas, but I'll wait for my spots to back the Jaguars and hope they get blown out here to escalate the inflated prices against them down the road (and also hopefully inflate the Chiefs' line so I can fade them in coming weeks). The pick: Pass (pool play: Chiefs)
Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Current spread: Bears minus-3 Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: The Bengals have made the playoffs the past two seasons, so the public has taken notice and they're not afraid to back them. The "Hard Knocks" factor is likely adding to their popularity as well.
Wiseguys' view: As alluded to in the Steelers' breakdown, the Bengals are the co-favorites with the Ravens to win the AFC North, and many sharps think the Bengals should be favored. This line isn't expected to go any higher, so most wiseguys have either grabbed the plus-3 or passed.
Tuley's Take: The Bengals should be strong on both sides of the ball this season. A lot of people have these two teams in their power rankings, but I have the Bengals a few points higher and think this line should be closer to pick-em, even with the Bears having home-field advantage. The Bengals have shown they can take their show on the road the last two years, as they're 10-4-2 ATS (not including playoff trips to Houston). The pick: Bengals
Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Current spread: Pick-em Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Browns
Public perception: This game opened Dolphins minus-1 back in the spring and has hovered around "pick-em" status. We're seeing more support come on the Browns, but this will be one of the lowest-handle games on the Week 1 card.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game, as both teams are regarded as under-the-radar teams who could see betting value throughout the year.
Tuley's Take: I'm in the camp that likes both of these teams as live underdogs. Assuming Brandon Weeden continues to improve under offensive coordinator Norv Turner (who is more suited for this role than head coach), I think the Browns are better overall and should be favored by a little more. But I'll sit this one out and watch for better opportunities. The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns)
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Current spread: Seahawks minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: The Panthers have a lot of people on their bandwagon after they won and covered five of their final six games last year, but it's still nothing compared to how many people like the Seahawks heading into this season.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are high on both these teams as well and not likely to take a consensus side.
Tuley's Take: The Seahawks were good to me last year, but they're certainly not going to be offering as much betting value -- at least early this season. But in order to fade them, as I expect to do when they're sure to be overpriced at home, I would need more points here. The pick: Pass (pool play: Seahawks)
Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Current spread: Lions minus-5 Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Lions
Public perception: The action has been pretty split on this game. The public is set to fade the Vikings as Minnesota is not expected to repeat last season's playoff run, but they're not confident enough in the Lions to load up on them.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are also looking to fade the Vikings, so it's a little surprising that this number hasn't steamed higher. Like the public, maybe the presence of superstar Adrian Peterson makes them reluctant to pull the trigger.
Tuley's Take: I definitely wish the Vikings had opened as a favorite against a lesser team so I'd be able to fade them right away. But I'm not going to lay the points with the Lions. The pick: Pass (pool play: Lions)
Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Current spread: Colts minus-9.5 Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Colts
Public perception: The public loved the Chuck Pagano feel-good story last year, but the amount of people on them this week is probably more due to fading the Raiders.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps aren't cutting in line to bet the Raiders, so those who are high on Andrew Luck & Co. are helping to push this line higher toward double digits.
Tuley's Take: Like the Vikings, I'm ready to fade the Colts this season, but even though I'll be cheering for Darren McFadden to have a big day for my fantasy team, this isn't enough points for me to take the Raiders. The pick: Pass (pool play: Colts, but only slightly, as I'd flip to the Raiders at plus-10.5)
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Current spread: Rams minus-4.5 Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Cardinals
Public perception: The East Coast will mostly ignore this game featuring two lesser teams in the NFC West, but there's been a little more hype on the Cardinals with Carson Palmer hooking up with Larry Fitzgerald and the defense looking improved in the preseason.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys loved the Rams last season, as they were 11-5 ATS (second only to the Redskins at 12-4), but that was mostly as underdogs and they're not as likely to back them as favorites. The sharps are also high on the Cardinals, as they're one of the biggest future-book liabilities at some sports books.
Tuley's Take: I was hoping the Cardinals would fly further under the radar to present some more value early in the season, but instead we've seen this line drop from the opener of St. Louis minus-6 back in April. Still, with it above Rams minus-4, I think there's value as there's not much difference between these two teams, especially if the Cards' defense keeps up its ball-hawking ways exhibited in the preseason. The pick: Cardinals
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Current spread: 49ers minus-4.5 Public consensus pick: 57 percent on Packers
Public perception: I was surprised to see the percentage so high on the Packers (even with them being a public team, and I'm not talking about their stockholders), but that's probably just due to the line being more than a field goal and more likely to head in their direction than toward a touchdown for the 49ers.
Wiseguys' view: This is one of the marquee matchups of the week, but that doesn't mean the wiseguys will get involved if they don't see value. Both teams are in the top echelon of the league, and the sharps just wish they were in a position to back them as a spoiler instead of having them play each other.
Tuley's Take: It's rare to get the Packers as an underdog, but I can't get on them here. Visions of them being unable to contain Colin Kaepernick & Co. in their 45-31 divisional loss keep running through my head. The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers)
Matchup: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Current spread: Cowboys minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Giants
Public perception: Are the Cowboys even "America's Team" anymore? I don't think so as bettors have had no problem fading them in recent years. Plus, the Giants always get their share of support.
Wiseguys' view: The NFC East is pretty evenly matched, so the sharps have no problem seeing value in getting three points plus the hook. I would expect this to close on three.
Tuley's Take: The Giants have been great on the road in the Eli Manning era and are 4-0 in the new Cowboys Stadium. The Cowboys haven't had any kind of home-field advantage, as they were 0-6 ATS as home (chalk) last year. I'd probably be on them even if the line was less than a field goal, but the hook is a bonus. The pick: Giants
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Current spread: Redskins minus-3.5 Public consensus pick: 59 percent picks Redskins
Public perception: As mentioned above, the Redskins were money last year at 12-4 ATS, so it's not surprising that the public is right back on them with Robert Griffin III cleared to play.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps bet this down from an opener of Washington minus-5.5 over the summer. Part of that was due to the uncertainty whether RGIII would be back in time, but also with the Eagles' stock on the rise.
Tuley's Take: I'm high on the Eagles, at least on the offensive side of the ball with Chip Kelly bringing his hurry-up style to Philly. The only reason this won't be in my SuperContest 5 is because if RGIII is ready, this style of sandlot football is right up his alley, which concerns me a little. But I think Philly is the right side. The pick: Eagles
Matchup: Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers
Current spread: Texans minus-4 Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Texans
Public perception: The amount of support on the Texans will likely result in just as many people fading the Chargers as the public has soured on San Diego after several years of underachievement.
Wiseguys' view: There doesn't appear to be any clear-cut side that the wiseguys will land on here, though home underdogs on Monday night are always tempting (though it's more of a 50-50 proposition in recent years after being a big money-making play back in the days of Howard Cosell, Frank Gifford and "Dandy" Don Meredith).
Tuley's Take: I'm not as down on the Chargers as a lot of people and, in fact, expect them to improve in the post-Norv Turner era. The key will be if the defense can do enough to contain the Texans' high-powered offense as the Chargers should be able to put points on the board as well. The pick: Chargers