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DALLAS -- Despite the fact that Oklahoma is again the preseason favorite in the Big 12, the conference has a rather wide-open feel to it in 2012. The additions of West Virginia and TCU, both double-digit-win teams a year ago, provide two additional contenders. Throw in reigning champ Oklahoma State, albeit a weaker version without Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden, and the Big 12 includes three 2011 conference champions. That has to be unprecedented.
The reason about half of the league conceivably could win its BCS berth is due in part to question marks for each favorite's cause. Here are the chief concerns of the Big 12's top six contenders, in order of their projected finish from last week's media vote.
Oklahoma Sooners
Concern: Surrendering too many big plays versus pass
The scene became far too familiar for the Sooners and their fans in 2011. At least once a game, and several times against Baylor, the ball would sail over the safety's head and into the arms of a wide-open receiver.
Javon Harris was often the goat, but miscommunication and a failure to properly transfer responsibility from the linebacker to safety sometimes miscast Harris as the villain. (But sometimes it was his fault.) OU had just three games in which it allowed 300-plus yards, but they were doozies, including 452 and 485 in losses against Texas Tech and Baylor, respectively.
New-slash-old defensive coordinator Mike Stoops already has brought change, shifting Harris from free to strong safety and moving strongside linebacker Tony Jefferson to free safety, a more natural spot. Aaron Colvin's move from strong to corner should smooth out the loss of Jamell Fleming.
"We've tried a different attitude. Our mentality has changed," said corner Demontre Hurst, the only member of the secondary not in a new spot.
During his visit to the league's media days, Hurst said he was asked a lot about the return of Stoops.
"He has said, 'Do you want to be like last year?' " Hurst said. "We're like, 'No.' He's on a mission. We're on a mission to get better ourselves."
The good news for the Sooners is that as bad as their yardage totals were at certain points, they ranked in the top third of the country in both pass-efficiency defense and yards per attempt allowed -- proof that if they can cut down on their bigger coverage lapses, the potential to be a very good passing defense is there.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Concern: Rushing offense's continual slide
Granted, a lot of things, including coaches and philosophies, have changed since 2007, but it's worth noting that the Mountaineers went from third in the country in rushing in 2008 to 92nd by 2011. (They have regressed each season, going from 15th in 2008 to 24th in 2009 to 50th in 2010.)
As pass-happy as Dana Holgorsen might be philosophically, Oklahoma State was still 36th in rushing in 2010, his one season as offensive coordinator there. Another Big 12 coach said Monday that he always had respect for Holgorsen's ability to balance an offense and run the ball, to the point that it finally made Mike Gundy's teams a tough out in the league. Without it, he said, Gundy's screens and short passes were more easily defendable.
Establishing that balance in Morgantown can only help Geno Smith and West Virginia's talented receivers, especially as they enter the Big 12. The Mountaineers have three returning starters on the offensive line. They also get back veteran guard Josh Jenkins, who was lost last summer with a knee injury. Dustin Garrison averaged 5.5 yards a carry as a freshman and only figures to improve with experience (the Mountaineers will need him to; they average only 3.8 yards per rush as a team last season). The Pearland, Texas, native should run into a number of his friends on opposing teams.
Texas Longhorns
Concern: Too many giveaways for quarterbacks
Coach Mack Brown has said David Ash and Case McCoy were "more careful" with the ball in the spring than they were in their first seasons. "They were much more comfortable, much more confident," he said. "I feel like we've made great progress."
Last season, the Texas QBs -- also including Garrett Gilbert, now at SMU -- combined for 14 interceptions in 349 passing attempts, or one every 24.9 throws.
For the sake of comparison, last year's model for QB efficiency in the NCAA, Wisconsin's Russell Wilson, had four interceptions in 309 throws -- one every 77.3 attempts. Coordinators Major Applewhite and Bryan Harsin aren't asking for that necessarily, but somewhere closer to one every 50 attempts would be a reasonable goal -- most notably for Ash -- this year.
It wasn't just picks, either. Ash laid the ball on the turf an additional four times, something he will have to cut out because his mobility is part of his offering at the position. The model for Texas this season is to play smart offense and great defense -- and the only way that plan will work is if the Longhorns take good care of the football (the ground attack will be important as well).
The QB position is still a concern, Brown conceded this week. He said quarterback and kicker were the only spots where UT could use an upgrade. He is hopeful Ash becomes that upgrade, developing with time.
TCU Horned Frogs
Concern: Handling the physicality of the new league
This extends to West Virginia as well, but particularly to the Frogs, because they arrive from the Mountain West.
It's only fair to wonder how they will hold up physically down the stretch.
"We'll see how they do when they have to play good teams every week," Texas Tech safety Terrance Bullitt said.
And Tech (5-7 last season) isn't even one of the teams of chief concern to the Frogs, who close the season by facing the other five teams from this list of league title contenders. TCU travels to Oklahoma State and West Virginia, hosts Kansas State, takes a breather, then goes to Texas and closes out with Oklahoma at home. That would potentially do in even proven teams in the conference. And when you factor in that the Frogs are returning only five starters from a defense that last year allowed more than 21 points per game -- after three straight seasons of allowing fewer than 13 points a game -- there is legitimate concern as to how TCU will adjust to Big 12 offenses in Year 1.
No coach prepares better than Gary Patterson, but there's only so much he can do in light of attrition and wearing down in November. "We don't really know yet," Patterson said, when asked about his team's sustainability. "It's just something we'll have to see about."
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Concern: Counting too much on takeaways
Whether it's intentional or not, the Cowboys have constructed a strange-looking road to defensive success: 107th in total defense, first in takeaways. Is that strategy? Or is it counting on something that's extremely difficult to control? In 2011, it was the former, but can that dice-rolling style of play lead to problems in 2012?
"It worked last year," one Big 12 assistant said, "but is that a guarantee it would work again? And again? Maybe, but seems risky to me."
Adding to the risk is that Oklahoma State will be starting a true freshman quarterback in Wes Lunt, which could cause the Cowboys' own turnovers to rise (and at 62nd in the country in giveaways last season, they weren't in great shape to begin with). No matter how good Lunt is, it's unrealistic to think he'll take perfect care of the football in his first year in college (Matt Barkley's TD-to-INT ratio as a true freshman for USC was 15-to-14).
Led by corners Brodrick Brown and Justin Gilbert and safety Daytawion Lowe, Oklahoma State has the returning defensive personnel to be very good on that side of the ball this season. But a repeat of last year's 44 turnovers forced (for comparison's sake, national champion Alabama only forced 20 last season) is unlikely.
Kansas State Wildcats
Concern: Offense gets too one-dimensional
K-State is the anti-Big 12 team these days in terms of how it moves the ball. The Wildcats and Collin Klein averaged 152 passing yards a game last season -- about half of the combined average (301) of the other five teams on this list in 2011.
That's not to say Klein isn't effective with his legs, given his 1,147 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground, but at some point he has to prove he can keep opposing defenses honest with his arm. He seems to believe the Wildcats can do that in 2012.
"We want balance," Klein said Monday. "We'll do whatever we need to do to be balanced. If we throw 50 times, if we're in a shootout and need to do that, we can do that."
Perhaps Tyler Lockett (246 yards and three touchdowns last season as a freshman) can continue the Lockett family tradition of receiving at K-State, giving Klein a reliable target in the process. Anything that helps the Wildcats improve upon their way-too-low 6.8 yards per pass attempt figure from last season will be a plus.
DALLAS -- Despite the fact that Oklahoma is again the preseason favorite in the Big 12, the conference has a rather wide-open feel to it in 2012. The additions of West Virginia and TCU, both double-digit-win teams a year ago, provide two additional contenders. Throw in reigning champ Oklahoma State, albeit a weaker version without Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden, and the Big 12 includes three 2011 conference champions. That has to be unprecedented.
The reason about half of the league conceivably could win its BCS berth is due in part to question marks for each favorite's cause. Here are the chief concerns of the Big 12's top six contenders, in order of their projected finish from last week's media vote.
Oklahoma Sooners
Concern: Surrendering too many big plays versus pass
The scene became far too familiar for the Sooners and their fans in 2011. At least once a game, and several times against Baylor, the ball would sail over the safety's head and into the arms of a wide-open receiver.
Javon Harris was often the goat, but miscommunication and a failure to properly transfer responsibility from the linebacker to safety sometimes miscast Harris as the villain. (But sometimes it was his fault.) OU had just three games in which it allowed 300-plus yards, but they were doozies, including 452 and 485 in losses against Texas Tech and Baylor, respectively.
New-slash-old defensive coordinator Mike Stoops already has brought change, shifting Harris from free to strong safety and moving strongside linebacker Tony Jefferson to free safety, a more natural spot. Aaron Colvin's move from strong to corner should smooth out the loss of Jamell Fleming.
"We've tried a different attitude. Our mentality has changed," said corner Demontre Hurst, the only member of the secondary not in a new spot.
During his visit to the league's media days, Hurst said he was asked a lot about the return of Stoops.
"He has said, 'Do you want to be like last year?' " Hurst said. "We're like, 'No.' He's on a mission. We're on a mission to get better ourselves."
The good news for the Sooners is that as bad as their yardage totals were at certain points, they ranked in the top third of the country in both pass-efficiency defense and yards per attempt allowed -- proof that if they can cut down on their bigger coverage lapses, the potential to be a very good passing defense is there.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Concern: Rushing offense's continual slide
Granted, a lot of things, including coaches and philosophies, have changed since 2007, but it's worth noting that the Mountaineers went from third in the country in rushing in 2008 to 92nd by 2011. (They have regressed each season, going from 15th in 2008 to 24th in 2009 to 50th in 2010.)
As pass-happy as Dana Holgorsen might be philosophically, Oklahoma State was still 36th in rushing in 2010, his one season as offensive coordinator there. Another Big 12 coach said Monday that he always had respect for Holgorsen's ability to balance an offense and run the ball, to the point that it finally made Mike Gundy's teams a tough out in the league. Without it, he said, Gundy's screens and short passes were more easily defendable.
Establishing that balance in Morgantown can only help Geno Smith and West Virginia's talented receivers, especially as they enter the Big 12. The Mountaineers have three returning starters on the offensive line. They also get back veteran guard Josh Jenkins, who was lost last summer with a knee injury. Dustin Garrison averaged 5.5 yards a carry as a freshman and only figures to improve with experience (the Mountaineers will need him to; they average only 3.8 yards per rush as a team last season). The Pearland, Texas, native should run into a number of his friends on opposing teams.
Texas Longhorns
Concern: Too many giveaways for quarterbacks
Coach Mack Brown has said David Ash and Case McCoy were "more careful" with the ball in the spring than they were in their first seasons. "They were much more comfortable, much more confident," he said. "I feel like we've made great progress."
Last season, the Texas QBs -- also including Garrett Gilbert, now at SMU -- combined for 14 interceptions in 349 passing attempts, or one every 24.9 throws.
For the sake of comparison, last year's model for QB efficiency in the NCAA, Wisconsin's Russell Wilson, had four interceptions in 309 throws -- one every 77.3 attempts. Coordinators Major Applewhite and Bryan Harsin aren't asking for that necessarily, but somewhere closer to one every 50 attempts would be a reasonable goal -- most notably for Ash -- this year.
It wasn't just picks, either. Ash laid the ball on the turf an additional four times, something he will have to cut out because his mobility is part of his offering at the position. The model for Texas this season is to play smart offense and great defense -- and the only way that plan will work is if the Longhorns take good care of the football (the ground attack will be important as well).
The QB position is still a concern, Brown conceded this week. He said quarterback and kicker were the only spots where UT could use an upgrade. He is hopeful Ash becomes that upgrade, developing with time.
TCU Horned Frogs
Concern: Handling the physicality of the new league
This extends to West Virginia as well, but particularly to the Frogs, because they arrive from the Mountain West.
It's only fair to wonder how they will hold up physically down the stretch.
"We'll see how they do when they have to play good teams every week," Texas Tech safety Terrance Bullitt said.
And Tech (5-7 last season) isn't even one of the teams of chief concern to the Frogs, who close the season by facing the other five teams from this list of league title contenders. TCU travels to Oklahoma State and West Virginia, hosts Kansas State, takes a breather, then goes to Texas and closes out with Oklahoma at home. That would potentially do in even proven teams in the conference. And when you factor in that the Frogs are returning only five starters from a defense that last year allowed more than 21 points per game -- after three straight seasons of allowing fewer than 13 points a game -- there is legitimate concern as to how TCU will adjust to Big 12 offenses in Year 1.
No coach prepares better than Gary Patterson, but there's only so much he can do in light of attrition and wearing down in November. "We don't really know yet," Patterson said, when asked about his team's sustainability. "It's just something we'll have to see about."
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Concern: Counting too much on takeaways
Whether it's intentional or not, the Cowboys have constructed a strange-looking road to defensive success: 107th in total defense, first in takeaways. Is that strategy? Or is it counting on something that's extremely difficult to control? In 2011, it was the former, but can that dice-rolling style of play lead to problems in 2012?
"It worked last year," one Big 12 assistant said, "but is that a guarantee it would work again? And again? Maybe, but seems risky to me."
Adding to the risk is that Oklahoma State will be starting a true freshman quarterback in Wes Lunt, which could cause the Cowboys' own turnovers to rise (and at 62nd in the country in giveaways last season, they weren't in great shape to begin with). No matter how good Lunt is, it's unrealistic to think he'll take perfect care of the football in his first year in college (Matt Barkley's TD-to-INT ratio as a true freshman for USC was 15-to-14).
Led by corners Brodrick Brown and Justin Gilbert and safety Daytawion Lowe, Oklahoma State has the returning defensive personnel to be very good on that side of the ball this season. But a repeat of last year's 44 turnovers forced (for comparison's sake, national champion Alabama only forced 20 last season) is unlikely.
Kansas State Wildcats
Concern: Offense gets too one-dimensional
K-State is the anti-Big 12 team these days in terms of how it moves the ball. The Wildcats and Collin Klein averaged 152 passing yards a game last season -- about half of the combined average (301) of the other five teams on this list in 2011.
That's not to say Klein isn't effective with his legs, given his 1,147 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground, but at some point he has to prove he can keep opposing defenses honest with his arm. He seems to believe the Wildcats can do that in 2012.
"We want balance," Klein said Monday. "We'll do whatever we need to do to be balanced. If we throw 50 times, if we're in a shootout and need to do that, we can do that."
Perhaps Tyler Lockett (246 yards and three touchdowns last season as a freshman) can continue the Lockett family tradition of receiving at K-State, giving Klein a reliable target in the process. Anything that helps the Wildcats improve upon their way-too-low 6.8 yards per pass attempt figure from last season will be a plus.