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Top 50 NFL Free Agents for 2012

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  • Top 50 NFL Free Agents for 2012

    ESPN

    With free agency beginning at 4 p.m. on Tuesday, it seemed appropriate to rank the top 50 unrestricted free agents this year.

    There are some elite free agents out there, including potential franchise-altering quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn, both of whom are probably ranked lower than you think. Even though several wideouts were franchised, there is still talent available at WR, with eight players appearing on the list. The defensive tackle position also has eight players, while there are six linebackers and six defensive tackles.

    Remember, while this list factors in age, upside and other factors, it's primarily based on each free agent's value right now.



    1. DE Mario Williams: The Texans' defense was excellent this year, even with Williams out of the lineup, and they have two young starting outside linebackers that look to be fine players in their own right. Plus, Houston doesn't have a lot of money to spend after re-signing Arian Foster. Williams could end up being the most sought after free agent in this class. Maybe the Patriots, Titans or Jaguars will step up for his services.



    2. G Carl Nicks: Nicks is definitely in the conversation as the best guard in the NFL. He has size, power, feet, nastiness and is excellent both in protection and mashing his opponent in the run game. The Saints need him, but there are a ton of teams out there that would do cartwheels to land this guy. Dallas is one team that comes to mind immediately.



    3. WR Vincent Jackson: There is a lot of consistency issues with Jackson and he isn't as young as many tend to think, but he is big, fast and extremely talented. Jackson is a perfect match in San Diego, with Philip Rivers' deep passing skills, but he could make an offense like New England's utterly unstoppable.



    4. QB Peyton Manning: Yes, Manning is going to be 36 years old and his neck surgeries are gigantic red flags, but he also is in the conversation as the best quarterback who ever lived -- and last we saw of him, Manning was still fantastic. Will he get back to that level? Even if he can't replicate his greatness exactly, if I were the 49ers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Seahawks or several others, I would be extremely interested.



    5. LB Stephen Tulloch: One of the best middle linebackers in the game and improving yearly, Tulloch will be more sought after than many fans realize. He covers ground, is a punishing downhill force and keeps getting better as a coverage player. Detroit needs to bring this guy back, but a team like Philadelphia might have something to say about that.



    6. C Chris Myers: Houston doesn't have a ton to spend, but Myers is more valuable to the Texans than any other team. He is perfect for what they do on offense, but he is also sure to garner an awful lot of attention -- possibly from teams like Dallas, Tennessee and Green Bay.



    7. DT Red Bryant: This is a very good football player that too few know people about. He is the type of valuable defensive lineman that can line up all over a defensive front. Seattle does have plenty of room under the cap and considering how well Bryant fits their scheme, the Seahawks would be wise to bring him back.



    8. DT Paul Soliai: Soliai was franchised last year, but the Dolphins are going to more of a 4-3 scheme, and Soliai is pretty much a pure 3-4 nose tackle. He isn't young, but a space-eating interior defensive lineman can play a long time and he will rarely be on the field when the defense is in nickel.



    9. DT Sione Pouha: Tough, powerful and durable, Pouha is exactly what you look for at nose tackle in the 3-4. Although he is an older guy, Pouha doesn't have as much wear and tear on his body as most players his age, since he is just a three-year starter. Kansas City might be a good destination for Pouha or Soliai.



    10. WR Brandon Lloyd: The best two seasons of Lloyd's career have come over the past two years, despite the nightmarish conditions in St. Louis. He has always been able to make the spectacular catches, but he's become much more consistent. Josh McDaniels would love to get Lloyd to New England, where he could make the Patriots' offense complete.



    11. DE John Abraham: Abraham probably can't handle the workload that he once did, and he might be just a designated pass rusher going forward, but he still presents a lot of problems for opposing protection schemes. Look for a contender in need of a last piece or two to be very intrigued by Abraham.



    12. CB Brandon Carr: The Chiefs have ample room under the cap, but they are notoriously frugal and recently signed Stanford Routt, so it's now unlikely that Carr returns to Kansas City. However, Carr is going to be very attractive on the open market and many teams could use a starting cornerback with his abilities.



    13. CB Cortland Finnegan: This is a controversial player who plays with aggression and nastiness, but he also had a good season even without the help of much of a pass rush. I could see New England or Oakland being very interested in him. Cincinnati is another team that makes a lot of sense, but the frontrunners in my mind are Detroit or St. Louis, both of whom now have direct ties to Finnegan in Tennessee.



    14. WR Marques Colston: Colston can line up all over the field and despite his big body, is very effective out of the slot. He is also excellent in the red zone and catches everything thrown his way. But Colston isn't a quick-twitch guy, benefits a ton from his surrounding cast and has an extensive medical history. New Orleans is the best place for him.



    15. CB Carlos Rogers: A year ago, San Francisco signed Rogers to a one-year deal. He was an excellent acquisition and had a very good year on an exceptional defense. Of course his supporting cast helped his cause, but Rogers' stock has certainly climbed noticeably since the free agency process one year ago.



    16. DT Brodrick Bunkley: Bunkley is a much better player than many realize and did a great job for the Broncos in 2011. A pure run-stuffer that fits the 4-3 much better than the 3-4, Bunkley could be a hot commodity. The Broncos have plenty to spend under the cap and should make it a high priority to bring Bunkley back to Denver.



    17. QB Matt Flynn: I understand the allure, but Flynn scares me -- especially considering how much cash it will most likely take to get him signed. Very heady and a good anticipatory thrower, Flynn is extremely ordinary in terms of his physical skill set compared to other NFL starters. So everything needs to be ideal for him -- which is much easier to pull off with Green Bay's offense than where he most likely inevitably ends up. Miami seems like Flynn's most likely destination, but Cleveland and Seattle also could be in the market if Manning goes to the Dolphins.



    18. S LaRon Landry: Injuries have been a real problem for Landry, but there aren't many safeties in the NFL with his blend of size and speed. He could be a decent answer for covering all these tall, athletic tight ends that are all the rage right now, but really, he is much better suited near the line of scrimmage than away from it.



    19. DE Kendall Langford: A true 3-4 defensive end, Langford will have much more value to teams that run such a scheme than many might realize. Miami is moving to a 4-3, so like Soliai, Langford could end up on a defense that better fits his skills.



    20. RB Michael Bush: I have some doubts if Bush can be a true bell cow runner that gets a high number of carries week after week for the next few years, but he has been quite impressive when Darren McFadden has been out of the lineup -- which has been often. Cincinnati or Denver could be an excellent landing spot for Bush.



    21. WR Reggie Wayne: Wayne has put together a Hall of Fame résumé and is one of the best wideouts of this generation. He was a difficult guy to evaluate in 2011 because of the awful supporting cast around him in Indianapolis, but in the right situation, Wayne could have several productive seasons left. He also has value as a mentor for a young player at the position.



    22. LB Curtis Lofton: A foundation of Atlanta's defense and possessing the skill set to play in either a 4-3 or 3-4, Lofton seems destined to return to Atlanta as a leader of the defense. But the Falcons do have huge decisions to make with their spending and inside linebacker isn't a premium position.



    23. LB David Hawthorne: Although not a household name, Hawthorne is an active and productive linebacker. He can line up in multiple spots on the second level and could fit either a 3-4 or 4-3 defense, which makes him quite marketable.



    24. G Evan Mathis: Maybe the least known player on my list, Mathis has been extremely effective when given the chance to start. He is a technically sound guard and will be a great asset to any offensive line. He helped make up a fantastic left side of the line in Philadelphia next to Jason Peters.



    25. DE Andre Carter: Carter played very well for the Patriots last year before getting hurt. His career path is very distinct in that he plays very well when playing defensive end in a 4-3 and struggles at outside linebacker in a 3-4, which is a role he has unfortunately been thrust into at times. It seems likely that Carter is back in New England.



    26. G Ben Grubbs: Grubbs isn't an elite starting guard, but he is very solid and talented. He would be an upgrade for just about any team in the league. Baltimore recently invested heavily in another guard, Marshal Yanda, and might be reluctant to have that much money tied up in the position.



    27. RB Peyton Hillis: Hillis had an extremely uneven 2011 season -- mostly because of injury, but not exclusively -- after an outstanding 2010. He does a lot of things well and could certainly still help a running game quite a bit, but to me, he needs to be paired with another change-of-pace running back.



    28. C Scott Wells: Although he doesn't get talked about with all the star power on the Packers' roster, Wells is one of the better centers in the league. He and the Packers have a very good thing going with each other, but it sounds as though Green Bay is prepared to go in another direction, which surprises me.



    29. WR Mario Manningham: Coming off a huge performance on the greatest of stages, Manningham is sure to get a lot of attention on the open market. The Giants are tight up against the cap and likely won't be able to afford the luxury of bringing back their No. 3 receiver. There are a lot of inconsistencies in Manningham's game, but to me, he is a fine second wideout opposite a true No. 1. Tampa Bay could be a landing spot.



    30. WR Pierre Garcon: He's a player who's difficult to count on. He can have some maddening drops, but his talent is undeniable, especially as a downfield target. If he goes to the right team as a No. 2 wideout, he could be quite successful. He is, however, a risky signing for the amount of money he's sure to command.



    31. OT Jared Gaither: Gaither has had a roller-coaster career and could start the 2012 season with his fourth NFL team. However, he is talented and can be a franchise left tackle. He has had success at this level, but again, there is a ton of risk in signing Gaither for big money.



    32. OT Demetrius Bell: The Bills have a fair amount of money to spend and Bell should be exactly the type of player they look to keep and build around. He was a project at left tackle and has developed nicely. Bell's best play is still yet to come.



    33. DT Jason Jones: Jones had a down year in 2011, but he was often miscast as a defensive end in the Titans' 4-3 scheme. Still young with excellent penetration skills, Jones can be one of the better interior pass-rushers in the league. Some 3-4 teams might also consider him at DE.



    34. DE Jeremy Mincey: He doesn't get a lot of publicity playing in Jacksonville, but Mincey is a very solid all-around 4-3 defensive end. He should have a lot of value on the open market, but the Jaguars have a lot to spend. If the Jaguars can't re-sign Mincey, they would be extremely weak at defensive end.



    35. WR Laurent Robinson: Robinson came on huge for the Cowboys in 2011. Durability has been a gigantic problem for him, but he's difficult to cover and looks like a fine No. 2 wideout who can exploit single coverage. Robinson is very fast and scored 11 touchdowns in 2011.



    36. QB Alex Smith: The 49ers used the franchise tag on Dashon Goldson, so they must feel confident Smith will return to San Francisco. In 2011, Smith had the best season of his career. He is the ultimate game-manager -- in a best and worst sense of the term. San Francisco should at least kick the tires on Peyton Manning before locking up Smith long-term.



    37. CB Tracy Porter: Not the biggest or most physical corner around, but very adept in man-to-man coverage. Because of that, Porter will be coveted in this passing league. He can start for just about any of the 32 clubs. There will be a wave of corners who get quickly scooped up in free agency, and then Porter will be next in line.



    38. LB London Fletcher: An oldie, but still a goodie, Fletcher would have been much higher on this list if it weren't for his advanced age. But he can still play. The Eagles should do everything possible to pluck Fletcher, a leader on and off the field, away from the divisional-rival Redskins.



    39. DT Shaun Rogers: It seemed like a down year for the massive defensive tackle in New Orleans, but he did damage in what was a rather limited role. Stamina can be a problem for Rogers, but he is still capable of dominating as an interior pass rusher or run stuffer. He fits a variety of schemes.



    40. LB Erin Henderson: Erin should now officially be out of the shadow of big brother E.J. Henderson. His best fit is as an outside linebacker in a 4-3, but I think he could handle the middle in that scheme, if properly protected, and could handle the weak inside spot in a 3-4. Henderson will be coveted. To really improve his overall value, Henderson needs to show he can perform on every down, but I think he has that ability.


    41. DT Antonio Garay: Garay isn't at an ideal age (32) to hit the free agent market and he does have a worrisome injury history, but he can be a real handful in the middle of a defense. Garay played much better in 2010 than in 2011, but a defense that wants a tough and penetrating nose tackle (like Houston) would love to add him.



    42. WR Robert Meachem: There has been a fair amount of inconsistency in Meachem's career, but the former first-round pick does have an awful lot of ability. Much of the reason for his inconsistent production is that he has been around so many other high-quality pass-catchers who demand the football. With a rash of wideouts off the market already due to the franchise tag, receiver-starved teams like Jacksonville should be really active after Meachem.



    43. LB Jarret Johnson: Johnson has quietly been an essential part of many great Ravens defenses. He isn't nearly as flashy as some of those teammates, but Johnson can line up in many spots and is one of the very best in the league as an edge run defender.


    44. OT Vernon Carey: The Dolphins' offensive line was a bit of a mess in 2011 -- and Carey didn't help that cause. But for some reason, Miami asked Carey to play guard instead of his usual right tackle position. Kansas City has a gaping hole at right tackle, as do the Jets. Both teams should be all over Carey, who excelled at that position not all that long ago.



    45. DE Mark Anderson: Pass rushers are at a premium in the NFL and Anderson showed this past season in New England that he can disrupt an opposing passing game from either his customary end spot in a 4-3 or at outside linebacker in an odd front. Every team could use a player with such qualities.



    46. RB Mike Tolbert: Tolbert is much more than a powerful, short-yardage runner. He also catches the ball very well and does possess some lateral agility. With Ryan Mathews on board in San Diego, Tolbert was never able to fully show his value, but I still think he is best paired with a smaller runner in a committee situation. Also, despite his brutal running style, Tolbert doesn't have a lot of wear and tear on his bowling-ball body.



    47. DT Aubrayo Franklin: After a terrific 2010 season with the 49ers, Franklin lasted on the free agent market for quite a while before being signed by New Orleans. He wasn't the same player in the Saints' 4-3 as he was with a better supporting cast in San Francisco's 3-4. While that raises concerns, 3-4 defenses looking for a pure nose tackle, like Kansas City for example, should be very interested.



    48. C Matt Birk: It would be very surprising if Birk left Baltimore. Even at his age (35), he is one of the better centers in the league. He is very intelligent and knows every trick of the trade. Signing him to a one-year deal would be the most logical move.



    49. C Todd McClure: Much like Birk, McClure is an advanced-aged free-agent pivot who doesn't have a lot of football left, but is also playing quite well. And also like Birk, his intangibles are very strong, so he could be of great help to a young line in need of some leadership.



    50. QB Jason Campbell: I can't say I am a true Campbell supporter, but he has been handed the short end of the stick at times throughout his career and he has a lot of ability. If I were in charge of the Jets, Jaguars or Broncos, Campbell would be dead in my sights. Campbell might surprise, and at worst he would be one of the best backups in the league.

  • #2
    Best fits for top NFL free agents

    We're just a few days away from the start of NFL free agency. It won't be as fast and furious as last year, but some quality big-name players will be changing teams. We're spending a lot of time trying to figure out who will end up where, so Football Outsiders decided to take some time to figure out who should end up where.

    There are many considerations in figuring out the best fit for a free agent. It needs to be a team with a hole at the position; it needs to be a team where the player fits the scheme; it needs to be a team with some cap space; and most free agents would certainly prefer, all other things (i.e., money) being equal, to sign with a team that's a playoff contender.

    It was hard to pick the top free agents, and we know that some good players, such as DeSean Jackson and Paul Soliai, were left off our list. We didn't consider players who were franchised or re-signed by their current teams, such as Matt Forte, Drew Brees and Wes Welker. We also left out restricted free agents, although it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see a few teams willing to lose a first-round pick in order to bring in Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace.

    One other thing to remember: Neither the Giants nor the Patriots spent money on one of the top free agents of the 2011 offseason. They filled holes with cheaper players such as David Baas and Andre Carter. So you don't need to sign one of these guys to make it to Super Bowl XLVII.


    DE Mario Williams: Tennessee Titans

    It's hard to find a team that wouldn't be a fit for Williams, the best defensive free agent of this offseason and one of the best ever. New Orleans and New England are strong Super Bowl contenders that need pass-rush help, but these teams may have to spend too much re-signing players to make room under the cap for Williams. Green Bay finished dead last in adjusted sack rate last season, but Williams really fits best in a 4-3 scheme. So how about the team that finished next to last in ASR? The Titans desperately need a pass rush from the outside. Last season, their only defender with more than four sacks was rookie defensive tackle Karl Klug. They have plenty of cap room and finished 9-7 in a division that's completely up in the air for 2012, especially if the second-place Titans can steal the best defensive player off the first-place Texans.



    G Carl Nicks: Chicago Bears

    The Bears have a strong defense. They have a good quarterback. They will have a great running back if they franchise Forte. And they have a terrible, terrible offensive line. The Bears finished 24th in our adjusted line yards metric and 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed. No one lineman stood out as deficient in 2011 because they pretty much all were, except for veteran Roberto Garza, who was playing out of position at center. The Bears should have no problem kicking either Chris Williams or Chris Spencer out of the starting lineup to make room for Nicks, and a line that adds Nicks and Gabe Carimi, who missed most of his rookie season with injury, might give Forte actual holes to run through. A big free-agent signing would help Chicago take advantage of the fact that it is the only NFC North team with actual cap space.



    WR Vincent Jackson: Chicago Bears

    Is it cheating to say that the top two offensive free agents fit best in the same city? When your team finishes fourth in Football Outsiders' ratings for defense and first in special teams but 30th in offense, it's pretty clear where the problem lies. It's highly unlikely the Bears could sign both Jackson and Nicks, but Jackson solves Chicago's other offensive problem, which is that the team has no true No. 1 receiver. He's a huge target who can stretch the field vertically, exactly what the Bears are looking for in their offense. Of course, if the Bears signed Jackson instead of Nicks, Jay Cutler might not stay upright long enough to get it to Jackson. If Jackson is more concerned with getting paid than winning games, he would also fit nicely with Jacksonville, a team with a ton of cap space and a receiving corps even worse than Chicago's.



    WR Marques Colston: San Francisco 49ers

    The 49ers' biggest hole was blatantly obvious when their wide receivers combined for just one catch in the NFC Championship Game. So what do you get a coach who needs a first-rate pass-catcher for his Bill Walsh-influenced offense? How about a first-rate route-running technician who has at least 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in five of his six NFL seasons? The only problem with signing Colston would be that the 49ers' top two receivers (Colston and Michael Crabtree) would be shorter-route possession guys, but that actually fits Alex Smith's strengths. The 49ers can always stretch the field with Vernon Davis and Kyle Williams in the slot.



    QB Matt Flynn: Miami Dolphins

    This one is so blatantly obvious that you've seen Flynn connected to the Dolphins all over the Internet. It's pretty simple: Miami needs a quarterback. The biggest worry about Flynn is that he'll be unable to succeed if he isn't in Green Bay's offensive system, but Miami hired Green Bay's offensive coordinator, Joe Philbin, as its head coach and is installing Green Bay's offensive system. Actually, if Philbin doesn't want Flynn as his quarterback in Miami, it should make other teams wary of handing Flynn big money. Unless the Dolphins pass up Flynn for Peyton Manning, but we'll get to that in a bit.



    G Ben Grubbs: Tennessee Titans

    Grubbs gets to be the consolation prize for teams chasing after Nicks. No, he's not an All-Pro, but he's a solid guard who has been starting since his rookie year and will be just 28 this season. The Titans are looking to rebuild their interior line this offseason, because Jake Scott is a free agent and Leroy Harris is nothing special. You would have to believe that coach Mike Munchak, a Hall of Fame guard, would make a pretty good sales pitch to free agents at his own position. Cincinnati and San Diego would also make good landing spots for Grubbs.



    Bonus free agent

    Peyton Manning: Seattle Seahawks

    The best fit for Manning probably depends on what he's looking for. Does he want a team more likely to make a Super Bowl run or a team where he can put up big numbers with a great receiver? If it's the latter, the clear choice is Arizona, where he can play with Larry Fitzgerald. However, even in the NFC West, the Cardinals don't seem particularly close to a playoff appearance. Many observers believe that Manning fits best in Washington, because the Redskins have a good, young defense that could pair with a Manning-led offense to make a Super Bowl run. However, that's not a good reason for Manning to pick Washington over Seattle or Miami. Based on Football Outsiders ratings, the Redskins' defense was ranked 14th last season, lower than Seattle (10th) or Miami (11th) -- and they play in the NFC East. Since the Seahawks have about twice as much cap space as the Dolphins and Flynn fits Miami as a cheaper, lesser alternative, we'll send Manning out West where he can try to teach Zach Miller how to be Dallas Clark.

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