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Trending: College Football Week 1 Trends
While college football had its own set of off-the-field issues this past offseason, one thing we could all be sure of was that the university presidents and athletic directors would not be locking out their student-athletes and the season would begin as scheduled the first week of September. Our summer school project was to examine Week 1 results from the last three seasons. Here is a list of 10 situations for Week 1 games that have proven to be very profitable.
NOTE: All stats are based on Week 1 results from 2008-2010. If a school played its first game of the season in Week 2, that game is not reflected in this study.
1. In all games with extremely high totals – over 60 – the UNDER is a whopping 12-3 (80%).
Potential plays for 2011: UCLA AT HOUSTON, WESTERN MICHIGAN AT MICHIGAN, SOUTH CAROLINA AT EAST CAROLINA, TULSA AT OKLAHOMA
2. In all games with very low totals – 43 or under – the OVER is a strong 8-2 (80%).
Potential plays for 2011: NONE
3. When the road team is favored by between 10 and 20 points, these away teams are a near perfect 9-1 ATS (90%).
Potential plays for 2011: SOUTH CAROLINA, KENTUCKY
4. When the home team is favored by between 20 and 30 points, home teams are a solid 15-8 ATS (65%).
Potential plays for 2011: AUBURN, USC, STANFORD, TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA STATE, WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA TECH
5. SEC teams hosting non-BCS schools are an impressive 9-2 ATS (82%).
Potential plays for 2011: AUBURN, ALABAMA, FLORIDA, SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA
6. SEC teams are 7-4 ATS (64%) vs. members of other BCS conferences. However, LSU is 0-2 ATS.
Potential plays for 2011: OLE MISS, LSU
7. Mountain West teams are just 4-7 ATS (36%) vs. members of BCS conferences.
Potential plays AGAINST for 2011: UNLV, TCU, BOISE STATE
8. Teams ranked in the top-5 in the preseason AP poll are a healthy 7-4 ATS (64%).
Potential plays for 2011: OKLAHOMA, ALABAMA, BOISE STATE (NOTE: OREGON AND LSU ARE PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER)
9. Teams ranked 6 through 10 in the preseason AP poll are just 3-9 ATS (25%).
Potential plays AGAINST for 2011: FLORIDA STATE, STANFORD, TEXAS A&M, OKLAHOMA STATE, NEBRASKA
10. All teams that finished the previous season ranked 6 through 10 in the final AP poll are 3-8 ATS (27%).
Potential plays AGAINST for 2011: OKLAHOMA, WISCONSIN, LSU, BOISE STATE, ALABAMA
While college football had its own set of off-the-field issues this past offseason, one thing we could all be sure of was that the university presidents and athletic directors would not be locking out their student-athletes and the season would begin as scheduled the first week of September. Our summer school project was to examine Week 1 results from the last three seasons. Here is a list of 10 situations for Week 1 games that have proven to be very profitable.
NOTE: All stats are based on Week 1 results from 2008-2010. If a school played its first game of the season in Week 2, that game is not reflected in this study.
1. In all games with extremely high totals – over 60 – the UNDER is a whopping 12-3 (80%).
Potential plays for 2011: UCLA AT HOUSTON, WESTERN MICHIGAN AT MICHIGAN, SOUTH CAROLINA AT EAST CAROLINA, TULSA AT OKLAHOMA
2. In all games with very low totals – 43 or under – the OVER is a strong 8-2 (80%).
Potential plays for 2011: NONE
3. When the road team is favored by between 10 and 20 points, these away teams are a near perfect 9-1 ATS (90%).
Potential plays for 2011: SOUTH CAROLINA, KENTUCKY
4. When the home team is favored by between 20 and 30 points, home teams are a solid 15-8 ATS (65%).
Potential plays for 2011: AUBURN, USC, STANFORD, TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA STATE, WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA TECH
5. SEC teams hosting non-BCS schools are an impressive 9-2 ATS (82%).
Potential plays for 2011: AUBURN, ALABAMA, FLORIDA, SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA
6. SEC teams are 7-4 ATS (64%) vs. members of other BCS conferences. However, LSU is 0-2 ATS.
Potential plays for 2011: OLE MISS, LSU
7. Mountain West teams are just 4-7 ATS (36%) vs. members of BCS conferences.
Potential plays AGAINST for 2011: UNLV, TCU, BOISE STATE
8. Teams ranked in the top-5 in the preseason AP poll are a healthy 7-4 ATS (64%).
Potential plays for 2011: OKLAHOMA, ALABAMA, BOISE STATE (NOTE: OREGON AND LSU ARE PLAYING AGAINST EACH OTHER)
9. Teams ranked 6 through 10 in the preseason AP poll are just 3-9 ATS (25%).
Potential plays AGAINST for 2011: FLORIDA STATE, STANFORD, TEXAS A&M, OKLAHOMA STATE, NEBRASKA
10. All teams that finished the previous season ranked 6 through 10 in the final AP poll are 3-8 ATS (27%).
Potential plays AGAINST for 2011: OKLAHOMA, WISCONSIN, LSU, BOISE STATE, ALABAMA
