The Bum's 2011 NFL Previews of Teams !

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NFL Season Preview: Buffalo Bills


BUFFALO BILLS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-12
ATS Record: 7-7-2
Over/Under: 7-9
Points Scored: 17.7 PPG (28th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 26.6 PPG (28th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC East: 30/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 75/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 150/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 5.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Head coach Chan Gailey brought an aggressive spread passing game to Buffalo in his first season as head coach in 2010, going four-wide early and often. Flanker Stevie Johnson should again be the clear-cut No. 1 receiver for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick who won’t have last year’s second option Lee Evans. On the ground, Buffalo made more of a commitment to zone blocking in their first year under Gailey. It’s a running scheme that’s more about finesse and deception, and Fred Jackson figures to lead their running back committee again. C.J. Spiller was asked to run only outside as a rookie—they don’t trust him between the tackles yet.

Defense:
Defensively, the team is looking to first-round pick Marcell Dareus to vastly improve what was the NFL’s worst run defense a year ago. The plan is to have Dareus slide inside next to Kyle Williams in the Bills’ 4-3 defense, which will theoretically make it difficult for opposing teams to run the ball up the gut as effectively as they were able to in 2010, as the Buffalo allowed a league-most 170 rushing yards per game. The Bills added ILB Nick Barnett from Green Bay, but departed with two of the top five tacklers in the entire league in LB Paul Posluszny (151 tackles) and S Donte Whitner (140 tackles).

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
QB Tyler Thigpen (from Dolphins)
WR/KR Brad Smith (from Jets)
WR Buster Davis (from Chargers)
LB Nick Barnett (from Packers)
DE Lionel Dotson (from Dolphins)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Trent Edwards (Raiders)
WR Lee Evans (Ravens)
TE Jonathan Stupar (Ravens)
DT Marcus Stroud (released)
LB Paul Posluszny (Jaguars)
S Donte Whitner (49ers)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 22.25 (2nd toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Kansas City
Week 2 - Oakland
Week 3 - New England
Week 4 - at Cincinnati
Week 5 - Philadelphia
Week 6 - at New York Giants
Week 7 - BYE WEEK
Week 8 - Washington (in Toronto)
Week 9 - New York Jets
Week 10 - at Dallas
Week 11 - at Miami
Week 12 - at New York Jets
Week 13 - Tennessee
Week 14 - at San Diego
Week 15 - Miami
Week 16 - Denver
Week 17 - at New England

******* Take: The Bills should be able to turn their luck around a bit in 2011 despite the difficult schedule. They lost three overtime games last year to playoff teams (Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City), and dropped three other contests by eight points or less. The Bills offense will continue to improve under Fitzpatrick and the home schedule has many beatable opponents (Oakland, Washington, Tennessee, Miami and Denver).
Prediction: OVER 5.5 wins (-125).

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NFL Season Preview: Miami Dolphins


MIAMI DOLPHINS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-9
ATS Record: 8-8
Over/Under: 7-9
Points Scored: 17.1 PPG (30th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 20.8 PPG (14th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC East: 8/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 20/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 40/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 7.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The Dolphins offense will have a different look this year, with former Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Brian Daboll taking that position in Miami. He’ll try to get some production out of a lousy passing game, which could once again be led by scattershot QB Chad Henne. Matt Moore was brought in from Carolina to compete for the job. The off-field problems of top receiver Brandon Marshall this offseason, and the likely ascension of rookie RB Daniel Thomas to the top of the depth chart only add more questions around this unit. Oft-injured Reggie Bush was Miami’s big offseason signing, but he’s hardly the right man to replace the two productive backs they lost in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. With a short offseason to install the new offense, there could be issues.

Defense:
The defense remains very strong though, especially with OLB Cameron Wake emerging as a pass-rushing superstar. The secondary was shaky early last year, but came on strong later in the year and could take another step forward with cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith entering their third seasons. They’re also strong up the middle, with ILB Karlos Dansby and newly-acquired ILB Kevin Burnett anchoring the run defense behind underrated nose tackle Paul Soliai.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
QB Matt Moore (from Panthers)
RB Reggie Bush (from Saints)
T Marc Colombo (from Cowboys)
T Ray Willis (from Seahawks)
DT Ronald Fields (from Broncos)
LB Kevin Burnett (from Chargers)
LB Jason Taylor (from Jets)
LB Jason Trusnik (from Browns)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Tyler Thigpen (Bills)
RB Ronnie Brown (Eagles)
RB Ricky Williams (Ravens)
FB Deon Anderson (released)
T Pat McQuistan (Titans)
DE Lionel Dotson (Bills)
LB Channing Crowder (Retired)
LB Tim Dobbins (Texans)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 21.63 (6th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - New England
Week 2 - Houston
Week 3 - at Cleveland
Week 4 - at San Diego
Week 5 - BYE WEEK
Week 6 - at New York Jets
Week 7 - Denver
Week 8 - at New York Giants
Week 9 - at Kansas City
Week 10 - Washington
Week 11 - Buffalo
Week 12 - at Dallas
Week 13 - Oakland
Week 14 - Philadelphia
Week 15 - at Buffalo
Week 16 - at New England
Week 17 - New York Jets

******* Take: This is a very difficult schedule, especially on the road where the Dolphins visit the Browns, Chargers, Giants, Chiefs and Cowboys outside of divisional play. They also have to travel to face AFC East foes Buffalo and New England in what will surely be frigid temperatures in December. Miami has only finished .500 or better once in the past five seasons, and with the offense in such disarray, there is little reason to expect the Fins to reach eight wins in 2011.
Prediction: UNDER 7.5 wins (-135).

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NFL Season Preview: New England Patriots


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 14-3
ATS Record: 10-6-1
Over/Under: 14-3
Points Scored: 32.4 PPG (1st in NFL)
Points Allowed: 19.6 PPG (8th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC East: 10/17
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 5/2
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 6/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 11.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Obviously, everything the Patriots do on offense is based on and off of Tom Brady, but they won’t hesitate to give a heavy dose of their power running game. They have an underrated run-blocking line and added another slashing runner in second-round pick Shane Vereen and a pure power runner in third-rounder Stevan Ridley. New England ran it on 46% of their offensive snaps last year, the eighth-highest percentage in the NFL. It’s all set up by Brady and their spread passing game. They went underneath more after the departure of Randy Moss, using Wes Welker and their stable of tight ends on short and intermediate routes. With Brady under center, they’re one of the few teams capable of consistently sustaining long drives, and the addition of WR Chad Ochocinco gives him another reliable target.

Defense:
Their overall run defense is strong, but the Patriots biggest offseason question mark was finding a consistent pass rush. They traded for massive DL Albert Haynesworth to man the left side of the 3-4 front, and also grabbed three veteran DEs that have all had their share of career sacks -- Shaun Ellis (72.5), Andre Carter (66) and Mark Anderson (25.5). Aside from star CB Devin McCourty, their secondary is weak (30th in NFL in pass defense), but the linebacking corps is improving with the NFL’s leading tackler ILB Jerod Mayo leading the unit.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
WR Chad Ochocinco (from Bengals)
DT Albert Haynesworth (from Redskins)
DE Shaun Ellis (from Jets)
DE/LB Andre Carter (from Redskins)
DE Mark Anderson (from Texans)
LB Niko Koutouvides (from Buccaneeers)

SUBTRACTIONS
TE Alge Crumpler (released)
T Nick Kaczur (released)
G Stephen Neal (retired)
G Quinn Ojinnaka (Rams)
DE Ty Warren (Broncos)
LB Tully Banta-Cain (released)
S Jarrad Page (Eagles)
PK Shayne Graham (released)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 20.50 (14th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Miami
Week 2 - San Diego
Week 3 - at Buffalo
Week 4 - at Oakland
Week 5 - New York Jets
Week 6 - Dallas
Week 7 - BYE WEEK
Week 8 - at Pittsburgh
Week 9 - New York Giants
Week 10 - at New York Jets
Week 11 - Kansas City
Week 12 - at Philadelphia
Week 13 - Indianapolis
Week 14 - at Washington
Week 15 - at Denver
Week 16 - Miami
Week 17 - Buffalo

******* Take: The Patriots have a rather easy start to the season before their Week 7 bye, with only one 2010 playoff team looming (Jets) in those first six games. After the bye, they play three of the best teams in the NFL on the road during a five-week stretch (Steelers, Jets and Eagles), but conclude the season with four games against teams with a combined 21-43 (.328) record from last year. The Patriots have averaged more than 12 wins per season since 2005, and should be able to retain this rate with at least a dozen victories in 2011.
Prediction: OVER 11.5 wins (-105).

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NFL Season Preview: New York Jets


NEW YORK JETS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 13-6
ATS Record: 11-8
Over/Under: 14-5
Points Scored: 22.9 PPG (14th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 19.0 PPG (6th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC East: 8/5
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 5/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 12/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 10

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The Jets have been all about ball control offense and strong defense since Rex Ryan came in, and this year should be no different. The theme of the offseason has been a heavy workload for RB Shonn Greene, who was relegated to a part-time role in his first two seasons because of fumble problems. He’s a power runner behind an elite run-blocking line, with LaDainian Tomlinson set to take third down duties. QB Mark Sanchez has been more of a game-manager to this point in his career, working off a lot of play-action. With so much changeover among his receiving corps (Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason in, Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery out), the Jets will surely keep it conservative on offense.

Defense:
Defensively, the ability of CB Darrelle Revis to take away one half of the field is a huge advantage, and makes up for their lack of a consistent pass rush. Despite Rex Ryan’s exotic blitz schemes, they’re unable to generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They haven’t missed a beat since losing nose tackle Kris Jenkins the last two seasons, thanks to the emergence of NT Sione Pouha and DE Mike Devito. Jenkins retired this offseason after being released by the team.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
WR Plaxico Burress
WR Derrick Mason (from Ravens)
CB Donald Strickland (from Chargers)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Kellen Clemens (Redskins)
WR Braylon Edwards (49ers)
WR Jerricho Cotchery (Steelers)
WR/KR Brad Smith (Bills)
TE Ben Hartsock (Panthers)
T Damien Woody (retired)
NT Kris Jenkins (retired)
DE Shaun Ellis (Patriots)
DE Vernon Gholston (Bears)
LB Jason Taylor (Dolphins)
CB Drew Coleman (Jaguars)
P Steve Weatherford (Giants)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 20.94 (10th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Dallas
Week 2 - Jacksonville
Week 3 - at Oakland
Week 4 - at Baltimore
Week 5 - at New England
Week 6 - Miami
Week 7 - San Diego
Week 8 - BYE WEEK
Week 9 - at Buffalo
Week 10 - New England
Week 11 - at Denver
Week 12 - Buffalo
Week 13 - at Washington
Week 14 - Kansas City
Week 15 - at Philadelphia
Week 16 - New York Giants
Week 17 - at Miami

******* Take: For a team that made the AFC Championship game, this schedule is pretty manageable. The Jets only face three 2010 playoff squads (Patriots twice and Ravens) in the first 13 weeks of the season. Although the NFC East is strong and the AFC West is improving, the only super tough road game they play in these two divisions is at Philadelphia. Trips to Oakland, Denver and Washington should all be successful ones.
Prediction: OVER 10 wins (-120).

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NFL Season Preview: Baltimore Ravens


BALTIMORE RAVENS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 13-5
ATS Record: 9-8-1
Over/Under: 8-10
Points Scored: 22.3 PPG (16th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 16.9 PPG (3rd in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC North: 6/5
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 13/2
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 15/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 10.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The Ravens are still searching for an identity offensively. Despite bringing in big-money possession receiver Anquan Boldin for QB Joe Flacco last offseason, they lacked a perimeter threat who can stretch the defense. Baltimore fans are hoping Lee Evans, acquired from Buffalo, can be that deep option. Rookie Torrey Smith could potentially fill that role too, but is likely a year away from being a major contributor. The struggles of Michael Oher after switching from right to left tackle last season doesn’t bode well for Flacco either. Ray Rice and the running game (which replaced Willis McGahee with Ricky Williams) could get back on track against a weaker slate of defenses this year.

Defense:
Baltimore is still a great defensive team thanks to its ability to stuff the run. NT Haloti Ngata is arguably the NFL’s best interior lineman and LB Ray Lewis has been ageless. The Ravens are still searching for a second pass rusher to go along with Terrell Suggs. Ball-hawking safety Ed Reed needs to stay on the field for this unit to be elite; he’s 32, but is relatively healthy for the first time in years. The rest of their secondary is weak; their defensive numbers were skewed by 2010’s early season schedule of putrid opposing QBs. The addition of Houston safety Bernard Pollard will help, but they’re rolling the dice that first-round pick Jimmy Smith, a talented CB with character concerns, can be a major contributor.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
RB Ricky Williams (from Dolphins)
FB Vonta Leach (from Texans)
WR Lee Evans (from Bills)
TE Jonathan Stupar (from Bills)
TE Kris Wilson
S Bernard Pollard (from Texans)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Marc Bulger (retired)
RB Willis McGahee (Broncos)
FB Le’Ron McClain (Chiefs)
FB Jason McKie (released)
WR Derrick Mason (Jets)
WR Donte’ Stallworth (Redskins)
TE Todd Heap (Cardinals)
T Jared Gaither (Chiefs)
T Tony Moll (Jaguars)
G Chris Chester (Redskins)
NT Kelly Gregg (Chiefs)
CB Josh Wilson (Redskins)
CB Fabian Washington (Saints)
S Dawan Landry (Jaguars)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 18.38 (26th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Pittsburgh
Week 2 - at Tennessee
Week 3 - at St. Louis
Week 4 - New York Jets
Week 5 - BYE WEEK
Week 6 - Houston
Week 7 - at Jacksonville
Week 8 - Arizona
Week 9 - at Pittsburgh
Week 10 - at Seattle
Week 11 - Cincinnati
Week 12 - San Francisco
Week 13 - at Cleveland
Week 14 - Indianapolis
Week 15 - at San Diego
Week 16 - Cleveland
Week 17 - at Cincinnati

******* Take: There’s no denying this is one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. With the exception of their annual trip to Pittsburgh, the Ravens could be favored in every single game this season. Baltimore has the good fortune of playing the weak NFC West and only faces two road opponents that posted a winning record last year (Pittsburgh and San Diego). With S Ed Reed and LB Ray Lewis looking ageless as the leaders of a formidable defense, the Ravens have to be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Prediction: OVER 10.5 wins (+105).

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Season Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

CINCINNATI BENGALS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-12
ATS Record: 7-9
Over/Under: 8-8
Points Scored: 20.1 PPG (22nd in NFL)
Points Allowed: 24.7 PPG (24th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC North: 20/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 100/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 200/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 5.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Whether franchise QB Carson Palmer is traded or forced into retirement, he has sworn he’ll never play another game for the Bengals. He’ll likely be replaced by second-round pick Andy Dalton, a heady pocket passer with questionable arm strength. Cincy also brought in former Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski to compete for the job. The Bengals will be operating a new offense, as the team fired long-time offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and will replace his aggressive vertical passing game with new OC Jay Gruden’s West Coast attack. Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco are both gone, so Cincinnati will also be breaking in a young, new group of receivers, including No. 4 overall pick A.J. Green and fourth-year WR Jerome Simpson on the outside and second-year slot receiver Jordan Shipley. It’s a lot of youth, and West Coast systems tend to require a steeper learning curve, so there could be major growing pains for this unit.

Defense:
Defensively, the Bengals have some decent young talent, including second-year DE Carlos Dunlap, and a good coordinator in Mike Zimmer, but this unit isn’t good enough to carry the load. The loss of Johnathan Joseph to free agency will hurt, as Joseph is one of the elite cornerbacks in the NFL. He will be replaced by former 49ers CB Nate Clements, who is a quality cover man, but certainly not the caliber of Joseph.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
QB Bruce Gradkowski (from Raiders)
TE Bo Scaife (from Titans)
G Max Jean-Gilles (from Eagles)
LB Manny Lawson (from 49ers)
CB Nate Clements (from 49ers)

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Chad Ochocinco (Patriots)
TE Reggie Kelly (Falcons)
G Evan Mathis (Eagles)
T Kirk Chambers (Lions)
DE Antwan Odom (released)
DT Tank Johnson (released)
CB Johnathan Joseph (Texans)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 17.94 (29th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Cleveland
Week 2 - at Denver
Week 3 - San Francisco
Week 4 - Buffalo
Week 5 - at Jacksonville
Week 6 - Indianapolis
Week 7 - BYE WEEK
Week 8 - at Seattle
Week 9 - at Tennessee
Week 10 - Pittsburgh
Week 11 - at Baltimore
Week 12 - Cleveland
Week 13 - at Pittsburgh
Week 14 - Houston
Week 15 - at St. Louis
Week 16 - Arizona
Week 17 - Baltimore

******* Take: After winning the division in 2009, the Bengals again look like a total mess with a rookie QB working with young receivers, and a defense that doesn’t offer much more by way of proven talent. Although the schedule is the fourth-easiest in the league, Cincinnati doesn’t figure to be favored more than two times this year (vs. 49ers and vs. Bills). The Bengals will really take a beating coming out of their bye with a six-game stretch comprised of four tough road trips and two division home games.
Prediction: UNDER 5.5 wins (-140).

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NFL Season Preview: Cleveland Browns


CLEVELAND BROWNS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 5-11
ATS Record: 5-10-1
Over/Under: 9-7
Points Scored: 16.9 PPG (31st in NFL)
Points Allowed: 20.8 PPG (13th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC North: 8/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 30/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 60/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 6.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The Browns will transition to a full-fledged West Coast under new head coach Pat Shurmur. He had success with rookie QB Sam Bradford in St. Louis last season, and QB Colt McCoy has the mobility and accuracy to fit a West Coast scheme. But this offense will still be heavily based on the run. Peyton Hillis wore down as last year went on, but the return of Montario Hardesty (who Cleveland traded up to draft in the second round of the 2010 Draft) will allow the Browns to get Hillis some needed rest. Brandon Jackson, signed from Green Bay, also figures to get a handful of touches each game. Josh Cribbs’ ability in the return game will be one of their biggest advantages.

Defense:
After playing a 3-4 defense under former head coach Eric Mangini, the Browns will switch to a 4-3 front with more of a Cover-2 feel under new defensive coordinator Dick Jauron. They lost DT Shaun Rogers, but added DT Phil Taylor and DE Jabaal Sheard in the first and second rounds, respectively, on draft day. However, Cleveland still doesn’t have ideal personnel for its front seven. The secondary is also a weakness; the Browns need a huge leap forward from second-year CB Joe Haden, their only starting-caliber corner.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
RB Brandon Jackson (from Packers)
G John Greco (from Rams)
CB Dimitri Patterson (from Eagles)
S Usama Young (from Saints)
P Richmond McGee (from Bears)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Jake Delhomme (released)
RB Mike Bell (Lions)
FB Lawrence Vickers (Texans)
TE Robert Royal (released)
WR Chansi Stuckey (Cardinals)
C Billy Yates (retired)
T Floyd Womack (Cardinals)
T John St. Clair (released)
DE Kenyon Coleman (Cowboys)
DT Shaun Rogers (Saints)
LB Matt Roth (Jaguars)
LB Eric Barton (released)
LB David Bowens (released)
LB Jason Trusnik (Dolphins)
LB Blake Costanzo (49ers)
S Abram Elam (Cowboys)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 19.31 (19th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Cincinnati
Week 2 - at Indianapolis
Week 3 - Miami
Week 4 - Tennessee
Week 5 - BYE WEEK
Week 6 - at Oakland
Week 7 - Seattle
Week 8 - at San Francisco
Week 9 - at Houston
Week 10 - St. Louis
Week 11 - Jacksonville
Week 12 - at Cincinnati
Week 13 - Baltimore
Week 14 - at Pittsburgh
Week 15 - at Arizona
Week 16 - at Baltimore
Week 17 - Pittsburgh

******* Take: The Browns have a great opportunity to start the year strong with four winnable home games (Bengals, Dolphins, Titans and Seahawks) in their first six contests. This could give Cleveland the confidence to be more competitive in the remainder of its games, which are mostly tough. This final stretch is certainly the hardest, where the Browns play division opponents in five of their final six games. This team has only surpassed six wins once in the past eight seasons, and does not have the talent level to accomplish seven victories in 2011.
Prediction: UNDER 6.5 wins (+110).

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Season Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers


PITTSBURGH STEELERS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 14-5
ATS Record: 12-7
Over/Under: 10-9
Points Scored: 23.4 PPG (12th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 14.5 PPG (1st in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC North: 4/5
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 4/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 10/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 10.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians and QB Ben Roethlisberger are ready to air it out this season. Even with WR Hines Ward entering the twilight of his career, they have plenty of talent in the receiving corps. Mike Wallace is an emerging star, second-year talents Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown are solid, and Heath Miller is still one of the league’s best two-way tight ends. The offense could go as far as their offensive line allows them to go. It’s a big question mark after a season of injuries and ineffectiveness. To free up salary cap space, Pittsburgh released two veteran tackles in the offseason in Flozell Adams and Max Starks.

Defense:
Whether the defense is very good or great will depend on the health of S Troy Polamalu, who has been hampered by injuries in recent years. The front seven is outstanding. They added depth to an aging defensive line with first-round pick Cameron Heyward, and still have the best pass-rushing tandem in the NFL in James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who each had double-digit sacks last year.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
WR Jerricho Cotchery (from Jets)
TE John Gilmore (from Buccaneers)
CB Kevin Dockey (from Rams)
S Macho Harris

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Antwaan Randle-El (released)
WR Limas Sweed (released)
TE Matt Spaeth (Bears)
T Max Starks (released)
T Flozell Adams (released)
DE Nick Eason (Cardinals)
LB Keyaron Fox (Redskins)
CB Anthony Madison (Lions)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 18.13 (28th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Baltimore
Week 2 - Seattle
Week 3 - at Indianapolis
Week 4 - at Houston
Week 5 - Tennessee
Week 6 - Jacksonville
Week 7 - at Arizona
Week 8 - New England
Week 9 - Baltimore
Week 10 - at Cincinnati
Week 11 - BYE WEEK
Week 12 - at Kansas City
Week 13 - Cincinnati
Week 14 - Cleveland
Week 15 - at San Francisco
Week 16 - St. Louis
Week 17 - at Cleveland

******* Take: This is in an incredibly easy schedule with the NFC West and AFC South opponents. Pittsburgh only plays five teams that posted a winning record last year (Ravens twice, Colts, Patriots and Chiefs) and should be favored by at least a touchdown in each of its final five games. The Steelers’ offensive strength is in the passing game, and they will face five of the six worst passing defenses in the league last year (Texans, Patriots, Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks), and none of the top-12 NFL pass defenses from 2010. Although Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs following its past two Super Bowl appearances, this cake schedule should produce at least a dozen wins.
Prediction: OVER 10.5 wins (-145)

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NFL Season Preview: Indianapolis Colts


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 10-7
ATS Record: 8-8-1
Over/Under: 10-6-1
Points Scored: 27.2 PPG (4th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 24.3 PPG (22nd in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC South: 5/7
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 9/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 15/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 9.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The entire organization lives and dies with QB Peyton Manning. The good news is that he’ll get All-Pro TE Dallas Clark back in the lineup after missing most of 2010 with a neck injury. The injuries, and resulting rotating door of personnel at wide receiver and tight end, were a big reason for Manning’s erratic play last season. Though the fact that he’s 35 and had minor offseason neck surgery is a reminder that he can’t play at an elite level forever. The Colts added offensive linemen with their first two picks (Anthony Castonzo in the first, Ben Ijalana in the second) to try and upgrade an o-line that can’t run block.

Defense:
The defense has a lot of different personnel this year, but has the same strengths and weaknesses it’s had for seemingly the past decade. They have an elite pass rush with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the edges, helping compensate for a mediocre secondary. But their emphasis on speed over size leaves them vulnerable against the run, especially against bigger backs.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
QB Dan Orlovsky (from Texans)
DE Jamaal Anderson (from Falcons)
DE Tyler Brayton (from Panthers)
DT Tommie Harris (from Bears)
LB Ernie Sims (from Eagles)

SUBTRACTIONS
T Charlie Johnson (Vikings)
DE Keyunta Dawson (Lions)
DT Daniel Muir (Rams)
LB Clint Session (Jaguars)
CB Kelvin Hayden (released)
S Bob Sanders (Chargers)
S Aaron Francisco (Lions)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 20.56 (13th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Houston
Week 2 - Cleveland
Week 3 - Pittsburgh
Week 4 - at Tampa Bay
Week 5 - Kansas City
Week 6 - at Cincinnati
Week 7 - at New Orleans
Week 8 - at Tennessee
Week 9 - Atlanta
Week 10 - Jacksonville
Week 11 - BYE WEEK
Week 12 - Carolina
Week 13 - at New England
Week 14 - at Baltimore
Week 15 - Tennessee
Week 16 - Houston
Week 17 - at Jacksonville

******* Take: The Colts have a pretty challenging non-divisional road schedule with visits to Tampa Bay, New Orleans and back-to-back contests at New England and Baltimore, two of the best teams in the league. However, these latter two games will be the only cold-temperature tilts for Indy, whose offense thrives in ideal weather conditions. Considering the Colts have won at least 10 games for nine straight seasons, this manageable schedule provides no reason to think the streak will end in 2011.
Prediction: OVER 9.5 wins (-155)

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NFL Season Preview: Houston Texans


HOUSTON TEXANS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 6-10
ATS Record: 5-10-1
Over/Under: 11-5
Points Scored: 24.4 PPG (9th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 26.7 PPG (29th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC South: 7/5
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 12/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 25/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 8.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The Texans finally have a complete offense with their offensive line evolving into an elite zone-blocking unit and Arian Foster stepping up as a perfect one-cut back behind them. Foster could be hurt by the loss of FB Vonta Leach, a premier lead blocker. Their passing game is still one of the best, built around the Matt Schaub-Andre Johnson connection. TE Owen Daniels is finally 100 percent again after struggling in his first year back from a torn ACL.

Defense:
There will be wholesale changes to the struggling defense, though. Houston brought in former Dallas Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips to rebuild the defense, which will include a switch to a 3-4 front. The Texans drafted DE J.J. Watt 11th overall to step onto the defensive line, with All-Pro Mario Williams becoming a supersized (6-foot-6, 290-pound) outside linebacker. The real upgrade was done in the secondary, which was the NFL’s worst last season. Houston signed prized free agent Johnathan Joseph who is one of the top cover corners in the league. The Texans also grabbed heady safety Danieal Manning from Chicago. An upgraded pass rush in Phillips’ blitz-heavy scheme, as well as improved play from second-year CB Kareem Jackson, could make this defense above-average in 2011.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
RB Javarris Williams
FB Lawrence Vickers (from Browns)
WR Devard Darling
LB Tim Dobbins (from Dolphins)
CB Johnathan Joseph (from Bengals)
S Danieal Manning (from Bears)
P Brad Maynard (from Bears)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Dan Orlovsky (Colts)
FB Vonta Leach (Ravens)
WR Andre’ Davis (released)
WR David Anderson (Broncos)
DE Mark Anderson (Patriots)
DT Amobi Okoye (Bears)
LB Zac Diles (Rams)
LB Darnell Bing (released)
S Bernard Pollard (Ravens)
S Eugene Wilson (released)
P Matt Turk (Jaguars)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 20.25 (15th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Indianapolis
Week 2 - at Miami
Week 3 - at New Orleans
Week 4 - Pittsburgh
Week 5 - Oakland
Week 6 - at Baltimore
Week 7 - at Tennessee
Week 8 - Jacksonville
Week 9 - Cleveland
Week 10 - at Tampa Bay
Week 11 - BYE WEEK
Week 12 - at Jacksonville
Week 13 - Atlanta
Week 14 - at Cincinnati
Week 15 - Carolina
Week 16 - at Indianapolis
Week 17 - Tennessee

******* Take: Houston’s schedule is very top-heavy, with its three toughest matchups coming in a four-game span (at Saints, vs. Steelers and at Ravens) from Week 3 to Week 6. The rest of the way is pretty smooth sailing with the only potential cold-weather game coming Week 14 at Cincinnati – arguably the NFL’s worst team. The Texans are still thin in pass defense, but they will only face three of the top-12 passing offenses in the NFL from last year (Colts twice and Saints).
Prediction: OVER 8.5 wins (-125)

[hunter121]

Thanks man!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Season Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-8
ATS Record: 9-7
Over/Under: 11-5
Points Scored: 22.1 PPG (18th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 26.2 PPG (27th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC South: 12/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 30/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 60/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 6.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The Jags have a quarterback controversy brewing after drafting Blaine Gabbert to eventually unseat veteran David Garrard. Regardless of who’s under center, this offense will be built around the running game. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is the centerpiece of the offense, even though he started to break down physically last year, and they have quality depth in Rashad Jennings. If Garrard hangs onto the starting job, they’ll continue to get creative with him in the running game, including some classic option plays. Mike Sims-Walker departed, weakening an already thin receiving corps.

Defense:
Defensively, there are plenty of question marks. They’re undersized in the front seven, leading to problems against the run. Tackling machine LB Paul Posluszny was signed from Buffalo to man the middle while former Indy OLB Clint Session will play the weak side linebacker. And they have issues against the pass. Their secondary added Ravens FS Dawan Landry and Jets corner Drew Coleman, but it is still not a great unit. They need a healthy return of star DE Aaron Kampman, who’s coming off a second torn ACL, to energize a pass rush that has few other threats.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
G Jason Spitz (from Packers)
T Tony Moll (from Ravens)
LB Paul Posluszny (from Bills)
LB Clint Session (from Colts)
LB Matt Roth (from Browns)
LB Gerris Wilkinson (from Giants)
CB Drew Coleman (from Jets)
S Dawan Landry (from Ravens)
P Matt Turk (from Texans)

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Mike Sims-Walker (Rams)
G Vincent Manuwai (released)
G Justin Smiley (retired)
T Jordan Black (Saints)
DE Derrick Harvey (Broncos)
LB Justin Durant (Lions)
CB Tyron Brackenridge (released)
S Sean Considine (Panthers)
P Adam Podlesh (Bears)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 21.69 (4th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Tennessee
Week 2 - at New York Jets
Week 3 - at Carolina
Week 4 - New Orleans
Week 5 - Cincinnati
Week 6 - at Pittsburgh
Week 7 - Baltimore
Week 8 - at Houston
Week 9 - BYE WEEK
Week 10 - at Indianapolis
Week 11 - at Cleveland
Week 12 - Houston
Week 13 - San Diego
Week 14 - Tampa Bay
Week 15 - at Atlanta
Week 16 - at Tennessee
Week 17 - Indianapolis

******* Take: This schedule is brutal with nine games against teams with winning records in 2010 (Colts twice, Jets, Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Buccaneers and Falcons). On the flip side, the Jaguars also draw the Panthers, Bengals and Browns, and only play two outdoor road games after Week 6 (Week 11 at Cleveland and Week 16 at Tennessee). Jacksonville has surpassed six wins in six of the past seven seasons, but with a subpar offense and a defense that allowed the most yards per play last year (6.3), don’t expect the Jags to win seven games on this most difficult schedule.
Prediction: UNDER 6.5 wins (-125)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Season Preview: Tennessee Titans


TENNESSEE TITANS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 6-10
ATS Record: 8-8
Over/Under: 9-7
Points Scored: 22.3 PPG (17th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 21.2 PPG (15th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC South: 8/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 30/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 60/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 7

2011 Preview:
Offense:
For the first time since Jack Pardee was leading the Houston Oilers in 1994, this franchise will not have Jeff Fisher on the sidelines. Former offensive line coach Mike Munchak takes over, and he’ll have new quarterbacks under center in Matt Hasselbeck and raw rookie Jake Locker (the No. 8 pick of the draft) and a new offensive coordinator in Chris Palmer (who has a shaky track record with his last two rookie QBs: Tim Couch and David Carr). They’ll have a short offseason to get the new passing game installed, so the offense will rely heavily on Chris Johnson again. Munchak has said he’ll make it a point to get Johnson the ball in space more often, something Tennessee didn’t do often in the past. However, Johnson has not attended training camp yet because of an ongoing contract dispute with the Titans. The team has not even made an offer to Johnson because they are so far apart with the parameters of a new contract.

Defense:
The defensive staff is also undergoing changes, with former Seahawks secondary coach Jerry Gray taking over as defensive coordinator. Perhaps the biggest loss on the coaching staff was defensive line coach Jim Washburn, now with the Eagles, who generated an outstanding pass rush despite middling personnel on the defensive line. Tennessee also lost its leading tackler, LB Stephen Tulloch (160 tackles), and top sack man, DE Jason Babin (12.5 sacks) to free agency. The Titans did pick up some solid free agents in DT Shaun Smith and LB Barrett Ruud who they hope will plug the middle of the field. CB Frank Walker and safeties Jordan Babineaux and Anthony Smith will provide depth to a pretty solid secondary.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
QB Matt Hasselbeck (from Seahawks)
TE Daniel Graham (from Broncos)
T Pat McQuistan (from Dolphins)
T Adam Terry
DT Shaun Smith (from Chiefs)
LB Barrett Ruud (from Buccaneers)
CB Frank Walker (from Vikings)
S Jordan Babineaux (from Seahawks)
S Anthony Smith (from Packers)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Kerry Collins (retired)
QB Vince Young (Eagles)
WR Randy Moss (retired)
TE Bo Scaife (Bengals)
DE Jason Babin (Eagles)
DT Tony Brown (released)
LB David Thornton (retired)
LB Stephen Tulloch (Lions)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 19.63 (18th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Jacksonville
Week 2 - Baltimore
Week 3 - Denver
Week 4 - at Cleveland
Week 5 - at Pittsburgh
Week 6 - BYE WEEK
Week 7 - Houston
Week 8 - Indianapolis
Week 9 - Cincinnati
Week 10 - at Carolina
Week 11 - at Atlanta
Week 12 - Tampa Bay
Week 13 - at Buffalo
Week 14 - New Orleans
Week 15 - at Indianapolis
Week 16 - Jacksonville
Week 17 - at Houston

******* Take: This schedule is much harder in the first half of the season, which doesn’t bode well for a team with so many coaching and key personnel changes. Tennessee will likely only be favored once (vs. Denver) in its first eight games. There are too many question marks on both sides of the ball to expect this team to finish .500 or better for the fifth time in six seasons.
Prediction: UNDER 7 wins (-160)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Season Preview: Denver Broncos


DENVER BRONCOS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-12
ATS Record: 6-10
Over/Under: 10-6
Points Scored: 21.5 PPG (19th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 29.4 PPG (Last in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC West: 10/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 30/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 100/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 5.5

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Denver brings in another new head coach, with former Panthers head man John Fox taking over. Unlike Josh McDaniels, Fox typically runs a conservative, ball-control offense complemented by a strong defense. Tim Tebow is likely to get his shot to be Fox’s franchise QB. He showed the ability to make plays with his feet last year, but the jury is still very much out on his ability in the passing game. Kyle Orton will likely begin the season as the starter. They’re still trying to figure out how heavily they can lean on injury-prone RB Knowshon Moreno, but Willis McGahee was signed from Baltimore to lighten Moreno’s workload.

Defense:
Denver was a train wreck defensively last season, especially because of their weak pass rush. The return of Elvis Dumervil, who will play defensive end in Fox’s 4-3 defense, and the arrival of No. 2 overall pick Von Miller at outside linebacker should improve on that. The Broncos also grabbed four defensive linemen this offseason in Ty Warren, Derrick Harvey, Jeremy Jarmon and Brodrick Bunkley.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
RB Willis McGahee (from Ravens)
WR David Anderson (from Broncos)
TE Dante Rosario (from Panthers)
TE Daniel Fells (from Rams)
DE Ty Warren (from Patriots)
DE Derrick Harvey (from Jaguars)
DE Jeremy Jarmon (from Redskins)
DT Brodrick Bunkley (from Eagles)

SUBTRACTIONS
RB LenDale White (released)
RB Correll Buckhalter (released)
WR Jabar Gaffney (Redskins)
TE Daniel Graham (Titans)
T Ryan Harris (Eagles)
DT Jamal Williams (released)
DT Justin Bannan (Rams)
DT Ronald Fields (Dolphins)
S Renaldo Hill (released)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 22.19 (3rd toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Oakland
Week 2 - Cincinnati
Week 3 - at Tennessee
Week 4 - at Green Bay
Week 5 - San Diego
Week 6 - BYE WEEK
Week 7 - at Miami
Week 8 - Detroit
Week 9 - at Oakland
Week 10 - at Kansas City
Week 11 - New York Jets
Week 12 - at San Diego
Week 13 - at Minnesota
Week 14 - Chicago
Week 15 - New England
Week 16 - at Buffalo
Week 17 - Kansas City

******* Take: It figures to be another long season in Denver who didn’t do much to improve its NFL-worst scoring defense (29.4 PPG) and total defense (391 YPG). This schedule is brutal. Although the Broncos actually have some manageable games in the first half of the season (vs. Bengals and Lions; at Titans and Dolphins), they’ll be hard-pressed to win any of the final eight contests. The second half of the slate features three division road games and home tilts against the Jets, Bears and Patriots. Expecting this team to win six games is much too optimistic.
Prediction: UNDER 5.5 wins (+125)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Season Preview: Kansas City Chiefs


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 10-7
ATS Record: 9-8
Over/Under: 7-10
Points Scored: 22.9 PPG (13th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 20.4 PPG (11th in NFL)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win AFC West: 4/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 20/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVI: 40/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 8

2011 Preview:
Offense:
The Chiefs took some steps forward last year, making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. But they also took advantage of one of the weakest schedules in recent memory. During the regular season, they played only three games against teams who finished with winning records (a split with the Chargers and a loss to the Colts) before getting trounced by Baltimore at home in the playoffs. They’ll continue to ride the ground game in 2011, and head coach Todd Haley has hinted towards a much bigger load for star RB Jamaal Charles. Even with drop-prone WR Dwayne Bowe now one of the league’s best big-play threats, the jury is still very much out on QB Matt Cassel despite 27 TD and only 7 INT last year. K.C. drafted a physical complement to Bowe in first-rounder Jon Baldwin, and hopes to get more production out of second-year weapons like slot receiver Dexter McCluster and TE Tony Moeaki.

Defense:
Defensively, their front seven is shaky aside from stud pass-rusher Tamba Hali. Their defensive line will be tested against a slate of better running games this fall. New NT Kelly Gregg will help the Chiefs for this test, as will LB Brandon Siler who was signed from San Diego.

Key Offseason Moves
ADDITIONS
FB Le’Ron McClain (from Ravens)
WR Steve Breaston (from Cardinals)
WR Keary Colbert
T Jared Gaither (from Ravens)
NT Kelly Gregg (from Ravens)
DT Amon Gordon (from Seahawks)
LB Brandon Siler (from Chargers)

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Chris Chambers (released)
C Rudy Niswanger (Lions)
G Brian Waters (released)
DT Ron Edwards (Panthers)
DT Shaun Smith (Titans)
LB Mike Vrabel (retired)

2011 Schedule:
2011 Schedule Strength: 22.81 (1st toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Buffalo
Week 2 - at Detroit
Week 3 - at San Diego
Week 4 - Minnesota
Week 5 - at Indianapolis
Week 6 - BYE WEEK
Week 7 - at Oakland
Week 8 - San Diego
Week 9 - Miami
Week 10 - Denver
Week 11 - at New England
Week 12 - Pittsburgh
Week 13 - at Chicago
Week 14 - at New York Jets
Week 15 - Green Bay
Week 16 - Oakland
Week 17 - at Denver

******* Take: The Chiefs have the hardest schedule in all of football, despite a pretty easy pair of games opening the season against the lowly Bills and Lions. Week 11 to Week 15 is an absolutely killer five-game stretch (at Patriots, Steelers, at Bears, at Jets, Packers). Before last year’s 10-win season against what amounted to the 24th-toughest schedule in the league, K.C. had four straight seasons of eight wins or less. The 2011 campaign should also end with a losing record.
Prediction: UNDER 8 (-160)