College Football Preview (All Teams)

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College Football Preview: Michigan State


MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 11-2 (7-1 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 7-6
Over/Under: 6-6
Points Scored: 29.5 PPG
Points Allowed: 22.3 PPG
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win Big Ten Championship: 8/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 100/1

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
On the heels of a shared Big Ten title and 11 wins, expectations are running high for Spartans fans. QB Kirk Cousins (217 pass YPG, 20 TD, 10 INT) will start for the third straight season. He has plenty of playmakers remaining on offense, most notably RBs Edwin Baker (1,201 rush yds, 13 TD) and Le’Veon Bell (605 rush yds, 8 TD), and WR B.J. Cunningham (611 rec yds, 9 TD). There is legitimate concern about blocking, as the revamped offensive line lost three starters.

Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 6
The defense needs to figure out how to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks after ranking 90th in sacks per game (1.5) and T-91st in TFL per game (5.1). The unit is also seeking replacements for graduated stud LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, who combined for 198 tackles, 16.5 TFL and four forced fumbles. The best defenders left in East Lansing are junior DT Jerel Worthy (4 sacks, 8 TFL), senior FS Trenton Robinson (4 INT, 8 PD) and junior CB Johnny Adams (3 INT, 7 PD).

2011 Schedule:
Fri, Sept. 2 – Youngstown State
Sat, Sept. 10 – Florida Atlantic
Sat, Sept. 17 – at Notre Dame
Sat, Sept. 24 – Central Michigan
Sat, Oct. 1 – at Ohio State
Sat, Oct. 15 – Michigan
Sat, Oct. 22 – Wisconsin
Sat, Oct. 29 – at Nebraska
Sat, Nov. 5 – Minnesota
Sat, Nov. 12 – at Iowa
Sat, Nov. 19 – Indiana
Fri, Nov. 25 – at Northwestern

******* Take: There is certainly some favorable elements to the Spartans schedule with seven home games and the possibility of going unbeaten both September and November. However, October will show just how good Michigan State is when they face the top three teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, Wisconsin and Nebraska). MSU’s entire road schedule is difficult with games at Notre Dame, Iowa and Northwestern to finish the season. Prediction: 8-4 record.

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College Football Preview: Minnesota


MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 3-9 (2-6 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 6-5-1
Over/Under: 6-5
Points Scored: 23.2 PPG
Points Allowed: 33.0 PPG
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win Big Ten Championship: 100/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 50/1 (Field)

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Jerry Kill is the new head coach at Minnesota after three straight bowl seasons at Northern Illinois. QB Adam Weber, has graduated, but Kill likes what he sees from dual-threat QB MarQueis Gray who played receiver with Weber under center. WR Da’Jon McKnight (750 rec yds, 10 TD) and TE Eric Lair (39 rec, 526 yds) provide reliable senior targets. Kill will use multiple RBs, but senior Duane Bennett (529 rush yds, 4.3 YPC) and redshirt freshman Lamonte Edwards should get the most touches. The offensive line is suspect with four starters gone.

Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 8
Minnesota had the fewest sacks in the nation last year (nine), but will incorporate a more aggressive scheme under new DC Tracy Claeys. Senior MLB Gary Tinsley (90 tackles, 9.5 TFL) leads a serviceable LB unit. The secondary loses both safeties, but Kim Royston (76 tackles, 6 PD in 2009) returns from a broken leg that cost him the 2010 season.

2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – at USC
Sat, Sept. 10 – New Mexico State
Sat, Sept. 17 – Miami Ohio
Sat, Sept. 24 – North Dakota St
Sat, Oct. 1 – at Michigan
Sat, Oct. 8 – at Purdue
Sat, Oct. 22 – Nebraska
Sat, Oct. 29 – Iowa
Sat, Nov. 5 – at Michigan State
Sat, Nov. 12 – Wisconsin
Sat, Nov. 19 – at Northwestern
Sat, Nov. 26 – Illinois

******* Take: Despite having seven home games, this schedule is quite a bear. They start the year at USC and take on defending MAC champion Miami Ohio two weeks later. The Gophers don’t play Ohio State or Penn State, but they also don’t have Indiana on the schedule, which was the only school to finish below them in the 2010 Big Ten standings. Minnesota draws all three of its weakest conference opponents on the road (Michigan, Purdue and Northwestern) and plays its two toughest Big Ten teams at home in Nebraska and Wisconsin. Minnesota will be fortunate to escape Big Ten play with one win this year. Prediction: 3-9 record.

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College Football Preview: Ohio State


OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 12-1 (7-1 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 10-2-1
Over/Under: 8-5
Points Scored: 38.8 PPG
Points Allowed: 14.3 PPG
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win Big Ten Championship: 7/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 50/1

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
With the Memorial Day resignation of Jim Tressel, assistant Luke Fickell takes over as the Buckeyes head coach. He’s not expected to change much with the schemes, but he no longer has Terrelle Pryor (31-4 in career) as his QB. Three star offensive players (WR DeVier Posey, RB Dan Herron and LT Mike Adams) are suspended for the first five games. Senior QB Joe Bauserman (16-22, 174 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT) is expected to start for this offense that should remain dominant, after ranking 11th among FBS schools last year with 38.8 PPG.

Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 4
The defense ranked in the nation’s top five in yardage (262 YPG) and points (14.3 PPG), but lost seven starters. DE Nathan Williams (4.5 sacks, 8.5 TFL) and DT John Simon (8.5 TFL) are strong returnees, but OSU’s top two LBs and corners have departed. LB Andrew Sweat (41 tackles) and SS Orhian Johnson (50 tackles) are the other two starters remaining.

2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Akron
Sat, Sept. 10 – Toledo
Sat, Sept. 17 – at Miami (FL)
Sat, Sept. 24 – Colorado
Sat, Oct. 1 – Michigan State
Sat, Oct. 8 – at Nebraska
Sat, Oct. 15 – at Illinois
Sat, Oct. 29 – Wisconsin
Sat, Nov. 5 – Indiana
Sat, Nov. 12 – at Purdue
Sat, Nov. 19 – Penn State
Sat, Nov. 26 – at Michigan

******* Take: The Buckeyes are fortunate that their suspended players will only miss one road game, which will be quite a challenge at Miami (FL). But they will have to assimilate quickly as October is a killer month with games versus the three best Big Ten teams (Michigan State, at Nebraska and Wisconsin). OSU has too many question marks, especially at head coach and quarterback, to finish ahead of both Wisconsin and Penn State in the Leaders Division. Prediction: 8-4 record.

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College Football Preview: Purdue


PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-8 (2-6 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 4-7-1
Over/Under: 5-6
Points Scored: 19.7 PPG
Points Allowed: 28.8 PPG
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win Big Ten Championship: 100/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 50/1 (Field)

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Spread - Starters Returning: 8
RB Ralph Bolden (935 rush yds, 11 total TD in 2009) has recovered from tearing his ACL last year and will be a key to improving the 104th ranked offense (312 YPG). QB Robert Marve also tore his ACL, but probably will not regain his starting role over Rob Henry (1,543 total yds, 8 pass TD, 7 INT). WR Keith Smith, who had 1,100 receiving yards in ‘09, also suffered a season-ending knee injury, but was a denied a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA. The good news is four starters return on the O-Line.

Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 9
The defense only lost two starters, but one of those was All-American DE Ryan Kerrigan. The front seven will remain very good with DT Kawann Short (6 sacks, 12.5 TFL) and MLB Dwayne Beckford (84 tackles) up the middle. The secondary remains intact with CB Ricardo Allen (2 TD ret.) and S Logan Link (91 tackles).

2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Middle Tennessee State
Sat, Sept. 10 – at Rice
Sat, Sept. 17 – Southeast Missouri State
Sat, Oct. 1 – Notre Dame
Sat, Oct. 8 – Minnesota
Sat, Oct. 15 – at Penn State
Sat, Oct. 22 – Illinois
Sat, Oct. 29 – at Michigan
Sat, Nov. 5 – at Wisconsin
Sat, Nov. 12 – Ohio State
Sat, Nov. 19 – Iowa
Sat, Nov. 26 – at Indiana

******* Take: The Boilermakers catch a break with not having to face Legends contenders Nebraska and Michigan State this year. Other than the annual Notre Dame game, the non-conference schedule is very soft. However, all four Big Ten road games will be a bear (Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin and rival Indiana) and the Boilers will be hard-pressed to beat anybody in conference other than Minnesota. Prediction: 5-7 record.

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College Football Preview: Wisconsin


WISCONSIN BADGERS

2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 11-2 (7-1 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 8-5
Over/Under: 8-4
Points Scored: 41.5 PPG
Points Allowed: 20.5 PPG
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win Big Ten Championship: 7/5
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 15/1

2011 Preview:
Offense:
Pro Style - Starters Returning: 5
Wisconsin had three 70-point games last year and returns the powerful two-headed rushing monster of James White (1,052 rush yds, 14 TD) and Montee Ball (996 rush yds, 18 TD). But the O-Line lost three starters. Former NC State QB Russell Wilson (76 pass TD, 267 total YPG in career), is a huge addition, but he’ll need some receivers to step up in a big way, namely senior WR Nick Toon (36 rec, 459 yds, 3 TD).

Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 6
DE J.J. Watt is now in the NFL, but the team expects bigger things from senior Louis Nzegwu (3 sacks, 7.5 TFL). OLB Chris Borland (10.5 TFL, 5 FF in ‘09) missed most of last season with shoulder problems, but is poised for a huge year with fellow OLB Mike Taylor (58 tackles, 8 TFL). The top two pass defenders also return, in CB Antonio Fenelus (4 INT, 7 PD) and FS Aaron Henry (7 PD, 3 total TD).

2011 Schedule:
Thu, Sept. 1 – UNLV
Sat, Sept. 10 – Oregon State
Sat, Sept. 17 – vs. Northern Illinois (in Chicago)
Sat, Sept. 24 – South Dakota
Sat, Oct. 1 – Nebraska
Sat, Oct. 15 – Indiana
Sat, Oct. 22 – at Michigan State
Sat, Oct. 29 – at Ohio State
Sat, Nov. 5 – Purdue
Sat, Nov. 12 – at Minnesota
Sat, Nov. 19 – at Illinois
Sat, Nov. 26 – Penn State

******* Take: With only four true road games on the schedule, Wisconsin should be the conference favorite. The Badgers are not as strong defensively as Nebraska, but they will face the Huskers on their home turf this year. They should win this marquee matchup in what could be the first of two meetings on the year, if both schools reach the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game. The only other two danger spots are back-to-back road games at Ohio State and Michigan State. Prediction: 11-1 record.

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Defensive Analysis

August 8, 2011

Returning Starters - Focus on Defense

Anyone who has followed my handicapping of college football on Vegas Insider over the years knows that one of my favorite angles to use during the first couple of weeks of the season is returning starters. (access my 2011 returning starters chart here)The logic behind this angle is fairly straightforward: The team with a greater number of returning starters should have an advantage in the early part of the season over its opponent, who have more players still learning to deal with the pressure, expectations, and performance that comes with being a starter in Division 1-A (or FBS) college football.

But even a theory this simple can be misleading at times unless you really dig into the numbers and understand what you are dealing with. For instance, on paper, both Boise State and Utah State have 14 returning starters and so if these two teams were to face each other in the first few weeks of the season (they don't), one would assume neither has an advantage when it comes to returning experience. However, take a look at the composition of those 14 returning starters and you'll notice that Boise brings back seven starters on defense, a unit which finished #2 in total defense in the nation last year, allowing just over 12 points a game. Compare that to the five starters the Aggies return on defense, a unit which finished 100th in total defense in 2010. Clearly, the Broncos have an edge over Utah State with the experience they return on the defensive side of the ball.

Over the next few weeks, I'll perform this type of analysis, looking at returning starters on defense, offense, and the all important quarterback position. In this piece, I'll breakdown the defensive units returning the most starters, the least starters, and the ones who should have the most talent in 2011.

Defensive Units with the Most Returning Starters in 2011

San Jose State: Returning starters on defense - 11. During Dick Tomey's tenure at San Jose (2005-09), the Spartans were known to be pretty stingy on defense. That hasn't been the case under Coach Mike MacIntyre, who enters his second season at San Jose State in 2011. This unit was awful in 2010 - 117th in the nation in total defense to be exact. Often times, returning a lot of starters from a bad unit can just mean more of the same the next season. However, at least part of the poor performance last year can be attributed to a system change with the new coach. There is talent here and obviously all the starters are back. I look for San Jose to be much stronger on defense in 2011.

Virginia: Returning starters on defense - 10. Under Al Groh, Virginia ran a 3-4 defense, a scheme he used with much success in the NFL but one that is not seen much on the college level. When Mike London took over the program in 2010, one of his first moves was to replace the 3-4 with the more traditional collegiate defensive formation, the 4-3. After two consecutive years of 11 total returning starters, the Cavaliers will return nearly that many on the defensive side alone. That fact, with the comfort of a year under London, should pay big dividends for this unit. After allowing over 28 points a game in 2010 - their most in years - look for that number to shrink dramatically as Virginia returns its top five tacklers, and many others, in 2011.

Alabama: Returning starters on defense - 10. A quick glance at the preseason USA Today coaches' poll and it's clear there are high expectation for Bama. But while Oklahoma got the nod as the #1 team in that preseason poll, there is really no dispute who has the best defense heading into this season. The totals should be pretty low all season for games involving the Crimson Tide. The top seven tacklers return from 2010, including ball hawking SS Mark Barron. Points will come at a premium against Nick Saban's crew.

Kentucky: Returning starters on defense - 10. After a couple of decent years on defense in 2008 & 2009, the Wildcats regressed last season under new Coach Joker Phillips. Kentucky allowed 11 opponents to score at least 20 points in 2010 and while they do return their top 11 tacklers from last season, the fact that this unit will start to weave in a 3-4 look in certain situations, going back to the 4-3 in others, makes me think Kentucky fans might see a repeat of 2010…or worse. This much is sure, Wildcats LB Danny Trevathan is a tackling machine and will be in the middle of most plays.

Cincinnati: Returning starters on defense - 10. Cincy returns their top 11 tacklers from 2010 but that is from a unit that was their worst defense in five seasons. The D-line and linebacking groups should be improved but unless the secondary can take a step - make that two or three steps - in the right direction, the Bearcats might again be relying on their offense to win games. Cincy was 88th against the pass in 2010 and will need to be ready fairly quickly as they visit Tennessee, with QB Tyler Bray, on Sept. 10.

Defensive Units with the Least Returning Starters in 2011

Buffalo: Returning starters on defense - 3. Only two of the top ten tacklers from 2010 return but on the plus side this will be the second year running the 3-4 defense so overall this unit should step forward this year. The Bulls will definitely be tested with visits to Pittsburgh and Tennessee in the first half of the season.

Middle Tennessee: Returning starters on defense - 3. The Blue Raiders were a little softer on defense in 2010 than in years past, allowing over 28 points a game. From that perspective, it might not be such a bad thing that only three of the top ten tacklers return. However, considering that Coach Rick Stockstill decided to switch defensive coordinators, my gut says 2011 will be a learning year for this unit. Translation: any success Middle Tennessee has this year will likely stem from its offense. Take the over.

Navy: Returning starters on defense - 3. Throw out the 2007 in which Navy surrendered points in record setting fashion, and this hasn't been a bad unit in years past. Typically, disciplined teams who are well coached - and Navy is surely that - have less trouble replacing starters than other teams. The Middies will have to hope that is the case as they look to replace seven of their top ten tacklers. A red flag is that the Navy secondary - traditionally their weakest spot - will return only one starter meaning teams will again look to air it out against the Middies.

Auburn: Returning starters on defense - 3. Make no mistake, Auburn didn't win the national championship behind the strength of their defense in 2010. From that perspective, returning only one of their top seven tacklers from last year won't hurt that much. (the loss of starters on offense and particularly at the quarterback position will be much more significant) They do lose a monster presence along the D-line as Nick Fairley moves on the NFL but the real question is whether this unit will have the knack for the big stops in key situations - as was certainly the case last season. Even with only three starters returning, this unit won't be any worse in 2011.

Northern Illinois: Returning starters on defense - 2. No team in the FBS returns fewer starters on defense than the Huskies. Making matters worse is that No. Ill will be operating under a new coach as Dave Doeren takes over the program. This has been a very stout unit over the past three years but with fresh faces and a new coach, I look for a "learning year" (translation: lots of points) in 2011.

Top Defensive Units in 2011

#1 Alabama: Returning starters on defense - 10. See above. Will be awfully tough to dent.

#2 Florida State: Returning starters on defense - 8. Could the Noles be returning to the form that marked this program during a dominating run in the 90's? This FSU defensive line will not surrender yards easily.

#3 Boise State: Returning starters on defense - 7. Losing three of their top six tacklers from 2010, this unit will have a hard time replicating the suffocating defense from a year ago but make no mistake, the Boise program is clearly at a level now where they simply reload. Accordingly, look for the Broncos defense to again be one of the best this season.

#4 Penn State: Returning starters on defense - 7. Joe Pa will miss 2010 top tackler Chris Colasanti, but the top five behind him all return. I look for this unit to make dramatic improvements over the 2010 edition, which uncharacteristically allowed nearly 24 points a game.

#5 Nebraska: Returning starters on defense - 7. This might be a little reach but I have a feeling the move to the Big 10 is going to suit Bo Pelini's quite well. The "Blackshirts" defense should be very strong along the defensive line which will play nicely in a conference that prefers the run over the pass. They lose four of their top seven tacklers from 2010 but have a crop of youngsters who have quality in-game experience ready to step up.

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Pac-12 South Breakdown

August 4, 2011

Pac 12 North Schedule Breakdown
College football is just a few weeks away and this year we have a few new divisions to think about. The Pac-12 added two teams this season and split into two divisions and those moves will bring about big changes. The biggest difference is the scheduling as the Pac-10 will no longer feature a true round-robin schedule, and with a nine-game conference slate there are some big disparities in the various schedules. Here is a look at the Pac-12 South and how scheduling could impact the final standings.

Arizona Wildcats: After years of struggling the Wildcats have made three consecutive bowl trips but they have also been blown out in the last two postseason appearances. Arizona took a small step back last season at just 7-6 after back-to-back 8-5 seasons and it will be difficult to change the trajectory of that trend given the 2011 schedule. With the nine-game conference schedule Arizona is playing five Pac-12 road games and with a very tough non-conference game at Oklahoma State added to the mix the Wildcats will have one of the nation's most difficult sets of road games. Arizona's home slate is no picnic either as they host Stanford and Oregon in back-to-back weeks to open the conference season in late September. With only ten starters back Arizona could get off to a terrible start with a 1-5 record heading into the mid-season bye week as a very realistic possibility. Arizona also is one of two teams in the South division that will not get to play Washington State from the North division and the Cougars are expected to be one of the worst teams in the conference again. After a couple of years of modest success Arizona has been hungry for a big breakthrough season but it will not happen this year and if the Wildcats make it to a bowl game Mike Stoops will have done a heck of a job.

Arizona State Sun Devils: In the spring Arizona State looked like possibly the best team in the new South division but injuries have crippled what was once a veteran team with a 15 returning starters. The Sun Devils do return decent talent this season and the schedule will provide some opportunities. Arizona State will not have to play Stanford which is a big bonus this year and the Sun Devils have five of the nine conference games at home. The Sun Devils have to play at Oregon this year but overall the road schedule is about as favorable as one could ask for. The non-conference schedule does present two challenging games with a Friday night home game against Missouri and a road trip to Illinois and those two games could set the tone for the Pac-12 season. Arizona State has not been to a bowl game since Dennis Erickson's first season in Tempe and this year's team should be good enough to best last year's 6-6 record and with USC ineligible to represent the Pac-12 South in the conference championship game, the Sun Devils have as good of a shot as any team in this division to get there.

Colorado Buffaloes: Moving to the Pac-12 may eventually be good for the Colorado program but in 2011 Buffaloes fans likely will be longing for the Big XII North. Colorado is playing a 13-game schedule with no bye week and only five games will be played in Boulder this season, leaving seven road games and a neutral site contest. As if the locations and travel were not difficult enough, Colorado faces brutally tough non-conference opponents featuring Hawaii, Colorado State, Ohio State, and California. Cal is obviously in the Pac-12 but since the game was on the schedule prior to Colorado's move to the conference it was kept and will be designated as a non-conference game. The only team in the Pac-12 that Colorado will not play is Oregon State. Only three teams in this division play both Stanford and Oregon, the favorites in the North, and Colorado is one of them. Colorado will also be on the road for several of the tougher games in this division, playing at Arizona State, at UCLA, and at Utah, getting only two home games within the division. Colorado has one of the nation's toughest schedules this season, a difficult task with a new coach and a schedule filled with unfamiliar teams. There are 16 starters back on a fairly experienced team but it will be tough for the Buffaloes to have a great start in the new conference.

UCLA Bruins: After going just 4-8 last season it may be a critical fourth season for Coach Neuheisel at UCLA. The Bruins have some quality talent in place but continue to battle inconsistency. The schedule has Houston and Texas both on the non-conference schedule just like last season but UCLA won both of those games last year and lowly San Jose State completes the non-conference slate. Five of the nine Pac-12 games will be road games including three games within the division so the Bruins will likely struggle to move towards the top of the standings. UCLA does not have to play Oregon or Washington so the Bruins get a little bit of a break on the schedule and the bye week is centrally timed before a big stretch of games that will likely make of break the season. UCLA is a team that could get some momentum early in the year and emerge as a real player in this division race but a few early losses could also send the season in the opposite direction. The schedule is far from easy overall but it rates in the middle of the teams in this division and that is likely where the Bruins will fall.

USC Trojans: The Trojans are on probation and will be ineligible for the Pac-12 title game or a bowl game but they could still be the best team in this division. USC will play Minnesota and Syracuse early in the year while heading to Notre Dame in October to complete the non-conference schedule. USC has a tough Pac-12 draw with both Stanford and Oregon on the map and Washington State off the schedule so the Trojans will play perhaps the toughest conference schedule in the division, although five of the nine games are at home. The season for USC will be about whether or not the team relishes the spoiler role and can shoot for a strong season even knowing that the reward possibilities are limited. USC will likely be favored in at least nine of twelve games so the Trojans are certainly a force to be reckoned with and should improve on the disappointing 8-5 mark in last year's transition season.

Utah Utes: The move to the Pac-12 will benefit Utah tremendously in terms of revenue and exposure and it could be a fine first season for the Utes even taking a big step up in terms of the overall schedule this year. Utah plays at BYU and at Pittsburgh in the non-conference schedule so it will be a huge step in class overall this year with none of the breaks with weak opponents that the Mountain West offered. In terms of the Pac-12 schedule however Utah got the best schedule it could have possibly asked for with the two teams in the conference missing from the schedule being Oregon and Stanford. Utah will play five of nine conference games at home where they have been historically very tough and other than the early season game at USC, none of the road contests are overly threatening, getting to play at California in the de facto home stadium for the Bears in San Francisco and also playing at Washington State where the Utes should be able to win. Utah has had double-digit wins in each of the last three seasons and that mark will likely be tough to reach this year but Utah has a good chance to make a relatively smooth transition to the big stage and have another productive bowl season with a favorable schedule to thank.