To hedge or not to hedge! That is the question!

[bryce]

Okc and Dallas. I have a futures bet to win on Okc

Ticket #: 95929867
TO WIN 2010-2011 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE
Placed: *04/16/2011 @ 09:41 AM
Starting 05/16/2011@06:10 PM
TNT - [13158] OKLAHOMA CITY +610
Risking: *50.00
To Win: *305.00

I think I know what I am going to do but wanted to generate some conversation from the board as to what you would do.
Dallas is -220. More than likely I will throw 66 to win 30 on Dallas. So I either win 250 or loose (club) 20. I can always make up 20 bucks in the series once I see how this series is going anyway. I would leave it alone but OKC just had a draining series with Memphis and open tomorrow night. Don't see them pulling out a W tomorrow night in Dallas.

Let me know your thoughts!

[tech fan]

Bryce what about putting something on the Dallas ml tonight and playing that bet.if it wins you win tonight of it loses then play a little something on Dallas to win series.If Oklahoma city wins game 1 the line from 66 to win 30 will be more like 66 to win 66.


I would bet 20 tonight on Dallas ml and let it roll.That way u still have a shot at winning both bets.And if okc wins game 1 then u will get better odds onDallas to win.Would hate for u to only win 20 when u had a chance at 350.You would get a lot better odds on Dallas to win series if okc wins game 1 so don't waste your hedge bet on a for sure loser bet 20 ml on Dallas if it wins bet 20 ml Dallas ml game 2 and so on.You can turn this bet into a lot of $$$

[savage1]

Although personally I would probably do nothing at this point, as a conservative strategy, is seems ok to me to try to buy back part of your bet.
Also, sometimes but obviously not always, being in tough series like Ok. City, can actually be a plus(meaning the momentum carries over to at least the first game) as opposed to a team like Dallas which hasn't played in some time and coming off a sweep and may be flat(even though it was against the Lakers).
JMHO

[bryce]

Good thoughts here Jerry! The game is tomorrow.
I didn't even think about the ml on the first game. That is good and I will rethink what I was going to do! Very good idea and that is why I wanted some feed back from you guys.everyone tries to be a smart gambler but asking advice never hurts anyone!

Thanks!

[bryce]

Although personally I would probably do nothing at this point, as a conservative strategy, is seems ok to me to try to buy back part of your bet.
Also, sometimes but obviously not always, being in tough series like Ok. City, can actually be a plus(meaning the momentum carries over to at least the first game) as opposed to a team like Dallas which hasn't played in some time and coming off a sweep and may be flat(even though it was against the Lakers).
JMHO

Very true. I really want to leave this baby alone but just think Dallas punches up game 1. Good points savage thank you for the response.

[Watchtower76]

Personally I hate hedging...You made the bet with the anticipation of a OKYST vs. Lakers show down, hence why you got it at +610....It's $50 and let it go, don't waste your money on hedges, you have risking about $10 a game if it goes to a game 5..

OKYST will win in 6

Okyst is quick and young and will exploit a slower Dallas team, just like the mavs did to the lakers, I think okyst matches up great against Dallas...

We'll see, but it's $50 and vegas expects them to lose both games in Dallas, should they steal one game, they'll be even money...

Bulls vs. OKYST (NBA)
TB vs. Vancouver (hockey)

[bryce]

Thanks watchtower! Appreciate the input! Very good thoughts!

[tech fan]

Bryce what did u do buddy

[bryce]

Hedged half of it or 75 to win 30. As the way things are going I am glad I did.
Dallas is looking for real here. Yep its only game one but......

[flarendep1]

You are a hedge pussy.

[bryce]

You are a hedge pussy.

I know I tried not to do it but the closer it got to game time my butt hole puckered up. I saw way to many people loving okc on espn today and when are they ever right??
Okc isn't out of this yet but they need some answers for Dirk and company...just can't see them stealing one in Dallas.

[bryce]

What will the series price now be? Do you think it will stay around -220 to -250 or with Dallas needing to steal one back in OKC does that price drop?