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  • All You Need To Know About The Dance !

    Time To Dance

    March 14, 2011


    Wow! Misplaced aggression, perhaps? We can only wonder what sort of reaction UAB and Virginia Commonwealth would have received from the talking heads at ESPN and elsewhere if they had actually done something wrong, like break NCAA rules. Or perhaps rob a bank. As it was, however, their mere inclusion into the NCAA's Big Dance field of 68 inspired quite a stream of vitriol from the analysts, the sort we have rarely seen on Selection Sundays past.

    "It's an injustice!," cried Dick Vitale regarding Colorado's exclusion from the field of 68. "Are you kidding me?," continued Dickie V. "UAB, or Virginia Commonwealth, over Colorado, to make the field? That's like a beauty contest between Roseanne Barr vs. Scarlett Johansson!" The resident Dookie on the ESPN set, Jay Bilas, continued the theme. "These are horrible decisions," said Bilas of the inclusions of the Blazers and Rams into the field of 68. "Do Selection Committee members know the ball is round?"

    Although we thought the best line of all in the Selection Sunday special on ESPN was offered by none other than Hubert Davis, who didn't seem quite as personally offended as were Bilas and Vitale about UAB and VCU having their Big Dance tickets punched. When Vitale went off on another rant and campaigned for the creation of a new "Commissioner of College Basketball" job, nominating Bilas for the post, he mentioned being "young" as one of Bilas' top the qualifications, which prompted Davis into action. "Young!?!?!", bellowed Davis, and the room broke up laughing, even Bilas. As did I at home, recalling the long-ago days when I was a referee, and worked some of young Bilas' high school games three decades ago when he was at Rolling Hills High in Southern California. Bilas might seem young to Vitale, but the ex-Dookie is no spring chicken any more, as Hubert Davis reminded us all.

    Those who believed the expansion of the field to 68 teams might eliminate some of the past controversies on Selection Sunday had forgotten about one constant in such formats; there will always be debates about which teams should make the field, if the tournament were expanded to 96, 128, or 256 teams. Even in the latter, teams 257, 258, and 259 are going to feel jilted. Always. And thank goodness we didn't go to the 96-team format that was seriously discussed last spring before a more-realistic expansion of three teams to 68; imagine if it would have been a 96-team field, where we would have been debating the merits of Hofstra, Ole Miss, Duquesne, and Valparaiso on the "cut-line" instead of UAB and VCU. Although it might have been quite a kick to hear Vitale spew venom at the Selection Committee for keeping Kent State out of the field of 96.

    Still, we have some questions about the Selection Committee's work as well; indeed, we much preferred the Bracketology puzzle that we put together prior to the official announcement. We knew the Big East was going to get 11 teams into the field, but we thought that one of the long-standing seeding requirements was to make sure that teams from the same conference could never meet until the Sweet 16 at the earliest. Yet, Big East reps UConn and Cincy are in the same pod at the Washington, D.C. sub-regional as West seeds 3 and 6, respectively, which means they would meet in the round of 32 (now called the "third round") if both win their openers. That's not supposed to happen, and we (and ESPN's "Saint Joe's" Lunardi) made sure our brackets kept the Big East reps apart until the Sweet 16 at the earliest. Which should have been easy enough for the Selection Committee to do as well.

    And upon further inspection, we really have to wonder about the qualifications of the Selection Committee, with only a handful of legit basketball people (including UC Riverside AD Stan Morrison, and Utah State AD Scott Barnes) in the group of ten mostly administrative-types who compose its membership. We are also not terribly impressed with Ohio State AD Gene Smith, the former Notre Dame DE and new Chairman of the Selection Committee, who hardly articulated with much clarity when defending the Committee's selections with CBS' Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg. Smith was also the first Committee Chairman to ever remotely suggest that "style points" were indeed a factor in the selection process, which right off the bat suggests the group of ten didn't watch Penn State's 36-33 win over Wisconsin in Friday Big Ten Tourney action. Unless it was actually consulting old coaches such as Boyd Grant and Bob Knight, or the ghost of Ray Mears, sorts that would have found that Nittany Lions-Badgers game to be pure bliss.

    We don't want to get too bogged down in the Selection Sunday minutiae; we've got games to discuss and analyze for this week. Still, we thought last year's work by the Committee (which featured 8 of the 10 involved in this year's decision, including Gene Smith himself) displayed a lot more consistency, opting as it did, among other things, to reward champions of mid-major level leagues who lost in conference tourney action. Agree or disagree, at least the Committee seemed to be following some sort of guideline for its decisions a year ago. This year, it was hard to tell what sort of criteria was being emphasized to make the final decisions at the edge of the field. Was it RPI? Strength of Schedule? Last 10 games? Quality wins? Bad losses?

    Granted, the Committee was presented with a choice between quite a few frogs (and we don't mean TCU Horned Frogs) this season. To wit: 13 teams enter with 11+ losses, by far the most since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Seven teams enter with 13+ defeats (the previous high was a mere three). And five teams enter with 14 losses or more; there had been a grand total of six of those in the 25 previous Big Dances between 1985-2010.

    If this is an inexact science (as it most surely is), we would rather have the Committee members (and especially its Chairman Gene Smith) simply admit as much, rather than acting as if there is some divine formula known only to this collection of well-paid pencil-pushers. We were also a bit surprised by a few developments, which included:

    Virginia Commonwealth...Not to belabor the Rams' inclusion in the field, but even we, as supporters of the CAA, were a bit surprised to see VCU make the final cut. The Rams rallied to make the Colonial Tourney final, but still enter the Dance having lost 5 of their last 8. RPI and SOS numbers were decent, but the only non-conference win of note was over UCLA. Apparently, the Committee had the CAA ranked much stronger than other mid-major loops. Either that or the dreaded BracketBusters results from three weeks ago turned out to be the deciding factor; curiously, winners of some key Busters games such as VCU were rewarded, while some of the higher-profile Buster losers (Wichita State, Missouri State, Saint Mary's) were kept out of the field.

    Was it possible that most Committee members didn't bother to pay close attention to the mid-major ranks until the BracketBusters?

    UAB...We indeed had UAB included in our field of 68. And this selection was consistent with last year's apparent criteria that rewarded the regular-season champions from mid-major league that lost in conference tourney action. But where as all such teams were invited a year ago, this year the Blazers from C-USA were the only such squad, while the likes of Missouri Valley regular-season champ Missouri State and WCC counterpart Saint Mary's (both having reached the finals of their respective conference tourneys, unlike UAB, which was KO'd in its first game by so-so East Carolina) were each denied. Perhaps C-USA was simply rated a bit higher than the other leagues, but the Blazers' only non-conference win of note came against VCU, with losses to the likes of Arizona State (Arizona State!) and Georgia, as well as a no-shame setback at Duke. UAB did have an RPI in the mid-20s (how, we wonder?) to eventually justify its selection, although Gene Smith spewed then usual platitudes instead of mentioning the strong RPI when defending the Blazers' choice to Nantz and Kellogg.

    (The inclusions of VCU and UAB, as noted, drew the most scorn from the TV analysts, although we must point out that none other than Bilas admitted that both were capable of winning multiple games if things broke correctly for each in the Dance.)

    Illinois...The Illini's inclusion, as a nine-seed to boot, speaks to the influence the Big Ten must hold over the Committee. Either that or the Committee simply decided to reward non-conference work over all other factors when it came to the Illini (which would be inconsistent with any VCU or UAB rationale, would it not?). The win over North Carolina in the ACC-Big Ten challenge in the very early part of the season (when the Tar Heels hardly resembled their eventual selves) was obviously a nice chip for the Illini to cash on Selection Sunday. We had thought that Illinois' 10 losses in its last 16 games (that's basically the last half of the season) made a much better case to keep it out of the field.

    Southern Cal...We were thinking that the numerous unsightly losses on the Trojan profile (Bradley, TCU, Oregon State, Oregon...twice, plus a 20-point beatdown courtesy middling Metro-Atlantic entry Rider), and six defeats overall to sub-100 teams, would cancel out the many high-profile scalps (Texas, Tennessee, UCLA, Arizona, Washington) that SC claimed. Plus HC Kevin O'Neill's suspension for a verbal altercation (and we have the specifics) with Arizona fans prior to the Pac-10 semis vs. the Wildcats last week. O'Neill has been reinstated, but we thought it was simply too difficult of an at-large case to make for SC with all of ugly losses and 14 overall defeats.

    Colorado...At the risk of offending Vitale, we didn't have the Buffs in our field of 68, either, although they were most definitely our first team out of the mix. To put CU under the microscope, we must note that two of CU's three wins over Kansas State came while the Wildcats were performing in a funk this season, and there were plenty of warts on the Buff profile, including a recent loss at Big XII cellar-dweller Iowa State on the heels of the Texas upset. Losses to Georgia, San Francisco, Harvard, and New Mexico in non-conference play, and the lack of a signature non-league win (we're not sure the 90-83 win over state rival Colorado State suffices) didn't help, either. But we also have to wonder about Committee politics; maybe there were no advocates for the Buffs, who are about to bolt the Big XII for the Pac-10 (soon to be Pac-12), despite the presence of Big XII commish Dan Beebe in the group of ten. Perhaps the Committee collectively decided that the Buffs deserved a snub for breaking ranks with Beebe's conference?

    Virginia Tech...Poor Seth Greenberg, again denied on Selection Sunday. We had the Hokies into our field, but there was some rationale to keep VPI on the wrong side of the cut-line, too. Despite that high-profile win over Duke two weeks ago, VPI was still only 4-4 in its last eight games. And the Hokies lost most of their significant non-conference contests, although they did score a 10-point win over Penn State. It was apparent that the Committee didn't think much of the ACC outside of Duke and North Carolina. The only other loop member to receive invites were Florida State, downgraded to a 10 seed in the Southwest, and Clemson, forced to participate in one of the 12 vs. 12 play-in games. Meanwhile, the Big Ten was given every benefit of the doubt with its 7 entries, although we did have Michigan and Michigan State correctly pegged on the 8th and 10th lines, respectively. The Hokies' win over Penn State apparently didn't help.

    When the smoke finally cleared, we missed on three at-large entries, keeping Southern Cal, VCU, and Illinois out of our final projected field of 68, instead with Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, and Alabama making our final cut. Although we are genuinely excited about a collection of "live" lower seeds that could cause some trouble this weekend. Among the most notably would include...

    Belmont (SE 13)...Coach Rick Byrd's Bruins have made some noise in the Dance before, nearly scoring a major first-round upset over Duke a few years ago. And regional observers believe this is Byrd's best of many good Belmont teams, one that rolled through the Atlantic Sun and blew out the North Florida Ospreys by 41 in the conference tourney finale. Belmont likes to go uptempo and enters the Dance very hot, having won 12 in a row, and note its 18.4 ppg win margin this season. Good balance with the nation's 11th-best scoring offense (80.4 ppg), led by soph G Ian Clark, who hits 44% of his triples, and ample depth to better help Byrd's fast-paced style (nine players average at least 14 minutes). Competitive in losses to crosstown Vanderbilt and in a pair vs. Tennessee, including a narrow 1-point setback vs. the Vols. Perhaps the biggest style clash of all first-round matchups when going against Wisconsin.

    Wofford (SE 14)...Remember the Terriers from last season? Coach Mike Young's SoCon Tourney champs returns much of the same team that almost upset Wisconsin in the first round last year and enters the Dance on the ascent, with 8 straight wins. The Terriers played a tough non-conference slate, losing to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, and Xavier (all competitively), and beating George Mason, with their "Minnesota connection" led by 6'6 PF Noah Dahlman (20 p pg). This senior-heavy lineup could cause problems for opening-round foe BYU.

    Oakland (W 13)...The Golden Grizzlies also return to the field fr om a year ago, when they lost to Pitt in the first round. Oakland likes to run and has the added advantage of a legit big, 6'11 C Keith Benson (18 ppg & 10 rpg), on the blocks, while UMKC Kangaroos transfer PG Reggie Hamilton (17.4 ppg) ignites the transition games. The Raiders, er, Golden Grizzlies, won at Tennessee and played Michigan State to within a point at East Lansing, but lost by double-digit margins vs. West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, and Ohio State. Does Oakland have enough defense to cope with Texas in their opener at Tulsa on Friday? Now in its 27th season under the watchful eye of vet HC Greg Kampe.

    Morehead State (SW 13)...The Ohio Valley Tourney champs cannot contain their excitement at getting a crack at in-state Louisville in the first round at Denver on Thursday, hoping to avenge a defeat to Rick Pitino's Cardinals at the same stage two years ago. Pony-tailed leading scorer (17.6 ppg; 64.4% FGs) and nation's top rebounder (14.5 rpg) 6'8 PF Kenneth Faried has drawn the attention of NBA scouts, while jr. G Deonte Harper added 27 points and 11 rebounds in the OVC title game vs. Tennessee Tech. The Eagles were competitive in spread-covering losses at Florida and Ohio State early in the season.

    Northern Colorado (W 15)...Under-the-radar Big Sky champ makes its first-ever Big Dance appearance after moving up to Division I ranks just four years ago, with what was the nation's worst RPI. The no-nonsense, senior-laden lineup has helped build the program from the ground up, first under HC Tad Boyle (now at Colorado) and now under B.J. Hill, promoted from his assistant's position after Boyle moved to Boulder last spring. One of the seniors, G Devon Beitzel (21.4 ppg), is a well-kept secret in the region, and the Bears can be dangerous if the triples are falling (three of the five starters hit better than 34% beyond the arc).

    Stay tuned...
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Opening Round Angles

    March 14, 2011

    The 2011 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let's take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

    Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

    NCAA TOURNEY - MOST RECENT TRENDS


    #1 Seeds are 80-0 SU (45-34-1 ATS) vs. #16 Seeds
    #2 Seeds are 76-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs. #15 Seeds
    Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS L2Y)
    Favorites of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-30-1 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
    Favorites of 4 > & < 12 pts playing an opponent off BB SU dog wins are 41-15-1 ATS (30-7-1 ATS L10Y)
    Favorites of 20 > pts are 3-12 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
    Favorites of > 7 pts who scored 100 > pts in last Conference Tourney game are 11-2 ATS
    Dogs of 4 > pts playing off a SU Conference Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 5-26-1 ATS last 11 years
    Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 5-1 ATS

    Because it's my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let's take a look at some of the more relevant Most Recent Trend results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:

    FIRST ROUND NOTES

    #1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favorties of < 25 pts are 14-2 ATS
    #2 Seeds are 7-21-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win
    #3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 30-1 SU & 22-8-1 ATS (6-1 L4Y)
    #4 Seeds are 26-13 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (9-3 L5Y)
    #9 Seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 > pts
    Favorites of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs. a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)

    ATS records of Conference Tournament Champions in this round

    ACC: 2-5
    Atlantic 10: 0-4
    Big 10: 2-4
    Big 12: 3-7
    Big East: 4-13
    Big West: 2-4
    Colonial: 13-5
    C-USA: 0-4
    Horizon: 5-1
    MAC: 4-1
    Missouri Valley: 2-4
    Mountain West: 3-7
    Pac-10: 4-1
    Sun Belt: 3-2
    SEC: 3-2
    WAC: 2-4
    West Coast: 2-4

    Best Team SU records in this round

    Purdue: 12-0
    Maryland: 10-0
    North Carolina: 8-0
    Missouri: 5-0
    Pittsburgh: 5-0
    Texas A&M: 5-0
    Kansas: 4-0
    Kentucky: 16-1
    Duke: 13-1
    Cincinnati: 10-1

    Worst Team SU records in this round

    Utah St: 0-5
    Clemson: 0-4
    BYU: 1-7
    San Diego St.: 0-3

    Best Team ATS records in this round

    Xavier: 6-0-2
    Texas A&M: 5-0
    Washington: 3-0
    Butler: 6-1
    West Virginia: 5-1
    Boston College: 4-1
    Georgetown: 4-1
    Pittsburgh: 4-1
    Purdue: 4-1

    Worst Team ATS records in this round

    Clemson: 0-4
    Temple: 0-3
    Tennessee: 1-9
    Gonzaga: 1-5
    Ohio State: 1-5
    Connecticut: 1-4
    Duke: 1-4

    Best Conference ATS records in this round

    MAC: 7-2
    Big 12: 12-4
    Horizon: 9-3
    Colonial: 8-4
    Missouri Valley: 10-5

    Worst Conference ATS records in this round

    CUSA: 1-5
    Ivy: 2-10
    Big 10: 2-9
    Mountain West: 3-7

    If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you may be seriously in need of a cardiologist. I'll be back Saturday with a look at 2nd Round action. Now, let the games begin!
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Vegas ready for Madness

      March 14, 2011

      This year’s college basketball tournament has the potential to set all-time highs in handle throughout Nevada sportsbooks thanks to the new television contract which debuts this week with staggered start times. The deal between the NCAA, CBS Sports and Turner Sports now allows bettors more time to get to the windows which should in turn create a significant increase in volume.
      Under the old scenario, bettors would play their group of games during what the start times dictated. If three games were going off within 10 minutes of each other, a popular betting strategy from regular bettors would be to play a two or three team parlay on those games and link those up in parlays with a few of the other 33 games starting later. Because most play with a limited bankroll, their allotment on straight bets may go to only one or two games during that stretch while they waiting to see if they won or not.

      With the new staggered format, bettors will now be able to cash without missing opportunities on the next wave of games and roll some of that money over, or if it goes bad, know that they have to go to the ATM and get more cash because a decision is in. Either way, the bettor now has time to regroup or press the action that wasn’t always available in the past.

      The true value to the sportsbooks is hard to forecast without having seen it all unwind before, but Thursday and Friday’s action is expected to exceed what they did last year just because of a longer time frame for the public.

      “I think it’s going to be good for our handle,“ said veteran Lucky’s Sportsbook Director Jimmy Vaccaro. “We should see us get an increase of about 5% over last years handle. When all the games start at relatively the same time, many of the bettors miss out. Now they’ll all have plenty of time to get action on the next game.“

      One of the biggest problems with games starting while others are ending so close together is just being able to make the bet on time as Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay explains.

      “Even when some of those games would end in enough time for bettors to get down, a lot of them would get shutout no matter how many windows we had open,“ Kornegay said. “Bettors like to cash immediately after games and then you have others who like to bet just before the game, so when you have both sides doing the both thing in a small window of opportunity, having some of them getting shutout is inevitable. Hopefully the staggered schedule negates some of that.”

      Most of the average Joe’s like to bet one game at a time -- or a wave of games in parlays -- seeing how their bankroll goes. Betting a 4:00 p.m. game at 9:00 a.m. with their early plays is rarely seen. These bettors want immediate action and they want immediate cash when they win. It’s part of what makes the first weekend of action so exciting in a Las Vegas sportsbook. There’s an exhilarating rush of hustling through a crowd to get action in at the last minute, kind of like the frenzy that goes off at a race track with two minutes to post.

      Because of the layers in betting opportunities, Coast Resorts Sports Book Director Bob Scucci certainly thinks handle will be up, but he isn’t necessarily sure about the win percentage being equally increased.

      “This is far more advantageous for the player than us because they have more opportunities to re-group over the course of the day and come up with another game plan should they lose, whereas before they were forced to do a lot of their betting all at once,” Scucci said. “It’s kind of like the NFL on Sunday’s, but with many more levels, with parlays on each level generating more and more outstanding risk.”

      On Sunday nights during the NFL season, even if the players have a mediocre day, no matter what a sportsbook does, it‘s hard to even out the liability because most of the extended risk is paying out 10, 20, or 40/1 odds on parlays. No matter how creative the bookmaker is, they can’t reduce that risk by much by taking straight bets paying 11-to-10 odds. Increasing a money-line on the late game to make it attractive for sharp bettors for large money is one way to help, but it still doesn’t come close to leveling off what some of the payouts are.

      While the handle alone on Thursday and Friday looks to exceed anything done in the past, the staggered schedule on Saturday and Sunday is still up for debate. On each of these days, half the games will start after 3:00 p.m. making the annual routine altered a bit for many Las Vegas visitors. Whether it’s show or dinner reservations, there are a lot of other variables that come into play for making the late Saturday game not as attractive in the past.

      Most guests check out Sunday afternoon and either drive home to California or have to catch a flight meaning that there’s a chance several of these players on the strip will be leaving before the games are over. On a normal Sunday in the second round the games would be over by 4:00 p.m. This year, four games will be going or will have yet to begun by that time.

      It’s likely that the rise in handle from Thursday and Friday will outweigh any decrease from Saturday or Sunday’s games that may occur and Vaccaro’s estimate of a 5% increase will be right on the money.

      No More Yelling at the Sportsbooks

      Another aspect of the new TV deal is that the sportsbook staff is likely to take less abuse from a crowd that, lets just say is usually a bit intoxicated after two hours of watching the game. The number one abuse taken by the staff is always about games being taken of the air by the network.

      “We’ll have a group watching their game where the spread may be 18-points and the national CBS feed thinks a 20-point game with five minutes to go isn’t competitive and then switches it to another game we already had the feed on,“ says Kornegay, “These fans start yelling like an angry mob at us as if we intentionally changed the game, not knowing that we can’t control what the network does.”

      With four different networks going at the same time on Thursday and Friday, much of the past obscenities thrown at the staff should be at a minimum this year. With the ability to get more bets in with less shut-outs, this could be the best handle Nevada has ever seen for the tournament. If we see some angry drinkers yelling and screaming, it will likely now only be because of picking the wrong side.

      Contests All Over Las Vegas

      To show just how meaningful the NCAA Tournament is to Las Vegas sportsbooks, all you have to do is look at all the contests being offered at several of the casinos. A sports book marketing budget generally is spread across the year with about 80% going towards the football season and the other 20% spent for March Madness. The tournament grabs bettors’ attention like only football can and in order for most books to funnel the majority of the bets their way, contests with all entries fees returned or huge overlays are the way to do it.

      Station Casinos is once again going with their popular “Last Man Standing” contest that paid out over $41,000 to one winner last season. This year, Stations is guaranteeing $40,000 no matter how many entries are taken, up from the $25,000 guaranteed last year. The entry fee is $25 and if you buy four, you get one free. All you have to do is pick one winner a day against the spread. If your entry is the last one standing, you win.

      Station sportsbooks are also enticing guests with value for the month by offering $1 Budweisers and hot dogs on days that the tournament is being played. The combination of getting that value as well as watching the games in any of their beautiful books certainly makes it a hard deal to pass up.

      Another local favorite, Coast Resorts, has a deal that is hard to pass up as well. In addition to having a great viewing experience for all the games, they are offering a free contest that pays one winner $10,000 at the end of the contest. 100 contestants will get paid in this no-points contest that pays a total of $16,000. The best thing about the contest is that is done out of their convenient kiosk. The only thing that is required is that you have one of their players card. It’s free money out there waiting to be taken. All you have to do is get there and pick some winners.

      If playing at the contest at the Orleans, they also have a deal that could win you more cash just by making your bets there. Every $50 bet gets you a drawing ticket to win up to $10,000 which they’ll be doing the first four days of the tournament. If you’re going to make bets, you might as well enter this contest and get your chance at free money.

      Lucky’s sportsbooks will be running their contest for the second consecutive year with $6,000 guaranteed for a $10 entry fee. There is also a bonus of $1,000 for whoever has the best record during the first four days of the tournament.

      Leroy’s sportsbooks have their “Three ‘n Out” contest running again for a $25 entry fee with all entry fees returned as prize money. The only way you get eliminated is to lose three times during the tournament picking one game a day against the spread. The deadline for entry is Mar. 5th at 5:00 p.m. PST.

      The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book is another great place to watch the games in their Hoops Central showroom. The best thing about it is that your in an environment kind of like being at an arena with all the ooh’s and ahh’s on every play that help give the tournament a life of it‘s own.

      Hilton Updated Odds

      The updated Tournament odds at the Hilton have top seed Ohio State as the 7/2 favorite followed by Duke 9/2, Kansas 5/1, and Pittsburgh 8/1. After those four, the next in line is San Diego State at 12/1 and North Carolina at 15/1. After doing my brackets early on, I kept having Michigan State making it to the Final Four and they are currently 100/1. If anyone believes in UNLV getting past Illinois, and then Kansas in the next round, the Rebels are 200/1 to win it all.

      Along with Michigan State, I have Ohio State, Kansas and San Diego State making the Final Four in my own bracket. It's not exactly going out on a limb, but I do have Utah State, Gonzaga and Richmond all making the Sweet 16.

      Jimmy Vaccaro on the on importance of the Tournament

      “You only get a few cracks at having big weeks in a year and these next few weeks will be the last until football starts with a small spike of activity late in the NBA playoffs. After not doing as well as we would have liked in the Super Bowl, it’s very important for us to make the most of this month.”
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Bracket Analysis

        March 13, 2011

        The brackets are out for the 2011 NCAA Tournament and as always, we aren’t without controversy. Let’s begin our discussion with the bubble teams that got in and the ones that got shafted.

        UAB and VCU’s inclusions in the field were the biggest shockers. The Blazers won the Conference USA regular-season title, but they went down against East Carolina in the C-USA Tournament quarterfinals. VCU (23-11 straight up, 13-20 against the spread) lost five of its last eight games and was beaten seven times in Colonial play.

        The Rams are in one of the play-in games against Southern Cal. These teams will square off in Dayton on Wednesday. The winner will be slotted as a No. 11 seed against Georgetown, a team that has lost four in a row.

        Most books opened USC as a four-point favorite vs. VCU. The Trojans will have head coach Kevin O’Neill back after he was suspended during the Pac-10 Tournament for a verbal incident with an Arizona fan.

        The other play-in game for at-large teams will pit Clemson against UAB. Most betting shops have installed the Tigers as five-point favorites. They nearly knocked off North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals, only to blow a big lead and lose in overtime.

        There are a slew of teams, most notably Saint Mary’s, Colorado, Va. Tech, Alabama and Harvard, who feel like they got snubbed. Yes, I said Harvard, which I clearly think had a better year than both UAB and VCU. My votes would’ve gone to Saint Mary’s and Colorado instead of VCU and UAB.

        The top seeds are Ohio State, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh. I think the Panthers have the toughest path to Houston with potential opponents including the Butler-ODU winner, Kansas State, St. John’s and Florida. The Red Storm beat the Panthers a few weeks ago.

        Ohio St. will get a tough game from Kentucky in the Sweet 16, but I think its opponent to get to the Final Four will come against a No. 6 seed, Xavier. I have the Buckeyes getting to the Final Four with only one major hurdle (UK).

        John Calipari’s team has caught fire at the right time, winning six in a row including a pair of wins over second-seeded Florida. The Wildcats have talent galore with future lottery picks in Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones, but they lack depth with only six players getting major minutes.

        Duke bounced back from its loss at North Carolina in the regular-season finale to thump the Tar Heels in the finals of the ACC Tournament. The defending champs won’t have it easy in the second round against the Tennessee-Michigan winner. Both teams have fabulous freshman players in Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr.

        Duke’s region probably has the most talented No. 4 seed in Texas for a potential Sweet 16 game. However, the Longhorns slumped down the stretch and face a dangerous Oakland team in the first round.

        **Déjà vu**

        --In the 2003 NCAA Tournament, Florida was a No. 2 seed and was sent to Tampa to play in its home state. That same year, Michigan State had a disappointing campaign and was a No. 10 seed. The Spartans beat Temple in their first-round game and then got the Gators in the second round. Tom Izzo’s team dominated Matt Bonner, David Lee and Co. and cruised to a blowout victory over UF. Sparty also bested Florida in the national-title game in 2000. In other words, UF fans weren’t happy to see Michigan St. as a potential foe.

        --West Va. upset top-seeded Kentucky in the Elite Eight last season. If form holds, these teams will square off in a second-round matchup in Tampa.

        --Josh Pastner has Memphis back in the NCAA Tournament to face the team he played for during his collegiate days, Arizona. Pastner also served as an assistant under Lute Olson.

        --Lon Kruger left Illinois to take the head-coaching job with the Atlanta Hawks back in 2000. He’ll face his former team when UNLV takes on the Illini in an 8/9 matchup. Bruce Weber really needs to win this game. Most spots have tabbed the Rebels as 1 ½-point favorites.

        --The Selection Committee is making UConn play on a Thursday even though it just played five days in a row while winning the Big East Tournament. Likewise, the committee did Georgia a similar injustice following its wild run through the SEC Tournament in 2006. Due to a tornado in Atlanta, UGA had to play a doubleheader on Saturday and also play on Sunday. Nevertheless, the Dawgs were forced to play on Thursday at noon Eastern. They predictably faded down the stretch, letting an eight-point halftime lead get away in a loss to Xavier.

        --UConn will face 14th-seeded Bucknell, which was also a No. 14 seed when it upset Kansas in the first round of the 2005 NCAA Tournament.

        **Wild Cards**

        --If Duke freshman point guard Kyrie Irving can return and be productive, the Blue Devils’ chances of repeating will go up exponentially. Irving, who has been out since November with a toe injury, averaged 17.4 points, 5.1 assists and 3.8 rebounds in eight games before being sidelined. His status remains very iffy but he was seen doing conditioning drills and shooting around at the ACC Tourney.

        --Will Georgetown’s Chris Wright be his normal self when the sixth-seeded Hoyas take the court against the USC-VCU winner? If not, John Thompson III’s team will be in trouble. Georgetown comes into the tournament on a four-game losing streak, but it deserves the No. 6 seed if Wright is back at 100 percent.

        --Watch out for Michigan’s ultra-talented backcourt. If Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. play their best games, Duke will need its A-Game to get past the Wolverines, who I think will knock off Tennessee in an intriguing first-round showdown. Michigan comes into the tournament on an incredible 12-1 ATS roll.

        --When you have the best point guard in America, you’ve got a shot against anybody. On that note, Xavier is going to be a dangerous out with Tu Holloway running the show. I believe the Musketeers would’ve been a No. 4 seed had they won the A-10 Tournament, but they got upset by Dayton. That loss doesn’t concern me, though. Xavier will upset Syracuse behind Holloway’s 3-point shooting against the Orange’s zone defense. When you have range like Holloway (and me), you can shoot over zones by using your range. Chris Mack’s squad will also take down second-seeded North Carolina. This program keeps rolling along through coaching changes and gut-wrenching losses in the NCAA Tournament. Xavier lost to eventual runner-up Ohio St. in overtime of the 2007 tourney only after the Buckeyes hit a late 3-ball to force the extra session. In 2009, the Musketeers led Pitt in the final minute of their Sweet 16 showdown, but LeVance Fields made all the plays on the final possessions to propel the Panthers to victory. Then last year, Holloway and Jordan Crawford led a furious second-half rally to force overtime before falling to Kansas St. in yet another crushing defeat.

        --How much gas does UConn have left in the tank after playing five consecutive days? The Huskies are playing great, as evidenced by their improbable run through the Big East Tournament. Kemba Walker averaged 26.0 points per game to lead the way, doing his best Gerry McNamara impersonation in the process. UConn is a No. 3 seed that’ll face Bucknell as an 11-point ‘chalk.’

        **B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

        --Arkansas fired John Pelphrey after four seasons and is reportedly poised to target Missouri head coach Mike Anderson, who was Nolan Richardson’s top assistant during the program’s glory days in the 1990s. As I’ve been prone to point out many times through the years, Richardson took a lot of heat for the way he forced the school’s hand in dismissing him in 2002. He essentially dared the school to get rid of him by saying, “they can pay me my money.” Well, here we are nine years later and the Razorbacks have one combined win in the NCAA Tournament since handing Richardson his pink slip. In other words, Nolan was right all along. His thinking was basically this: If they think they can find a coach to provide as much success as me, then good luck. Obviously, Arkansas has had no such luck but if Anderson returns, he’ll bring back the 40 Minutes of Hell Philosophy. Most importantly, he'll more than likely be able to keep a stellar incoming recruiting class together. If Anderson takes the job and keeps this class that's ranked as the nation's third-best, something tells me Bud Walton Arena will be rocking again soon.

        --According to SportsByBrooks, Wyoming is trying to hire former Oregon head coach Ernie Kent and the leading candidate for the Texas Tech job is Billy ‘Clyde’ Gillispie, the much-maligned former head coach at Texas A&M and Kentucky.

        --Georgia head coach Mark Fox’s wife is a graduate of the University of Washington. The Dawgs will take on the Huskies in a first-round contest. Most books opened Washington as a 5 ½-point ‘chalk.’

        --It’s too easy making ESPN analyst Doug Gottlieb look like a clown. He went to great lengths last year to rip West Va. guard Joe Mazzulla for his lack of punch offensively going into the Mountaineers’ Elite Eight game against Kentucky. Mazzulla was replacing starting point guard Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant, who was out with a broken foot. I quickly broke out Gottlieb’s abysmal shooting numbers from 3-point land and at the free-throw line during his playing career at Oklahoma St. All Mazzulla did was dominate John Wall on both ends of the floor and score a career-high 17 points in WVU’s upset win over UK. This time around, Gottlieb has irked this space by calling Florida ‘the most overrated team in the tournament.’ For starters, let’s clarify to readers that UF is the team that ended Gottlieb’s playing career in a blowout win at the Carrier Dome in the Elite Eight of the 2000 NCAA Tournament. Let’s also note UF’s stellar 11-3 record against RPI Top 50 teams and 17-4 mark against RPI Top 100 squads. The Gators own a 13-3 record against teams in the NCAA field.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Buckeyes favored to win NCAA tournament

          March 13, 2011


          LAS VEGAS (AP) - Sports books in Las Vegas casinos made Ohio State the favorite to win the NCAA tournament despite a tough draw that includes North Carolina, Syracuse and Kentucky in the same bracket.

          The race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton made Ohio State a 7-2 favorite to win the tournament, Executive Director Jay Kornegay said Sunday shortly after the selections for the tournament were announced.

          But Kornegay said the Buckeyes got a more difficult bracket than fellow No. 1 seed Pittsburgh, which has Florida, BYU and Wisconsin as the next-highest seeds in its region.

          ``Actually, Pittsburgh and Ohio State should be switching spots,'' Kornegay said. ``It's unusual for a No. 1 seed to have to deal with that kind of competition or those kind of teams that have the potential of playing very well and being competitive.''

          Kornegay and others still think Ohio State is the best team in the country.

          The Buckeyes finished the season 33-2, winning the Big Ten tournament and regular-season titles to reach the NCAA tournament for the fifth time in seven years. They will play the winner of the Texas-San Antonio-Alabama State game in Cleveland on Friday.

          Oddsmaker Tony Sinisi of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which provides betting lines to more than 90 percent of casinos in Nevada, said the firm planned to set its lines Sunday night but sees Ohio State as a 5-2 favorite.

          Mike Colbert, race and sports director for Cantor Gaming, which runs four sports books in Las Vegas, said Ohio State's tough draw was enough to put it on par with Kansas as 6-1 favorites to win the title.

          ``There's four legit - legit - national champion contenders in the same bracket,'' said Colbert, who runs books at the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, M Resort, Hard Rock Hotel & Casino and Tropicana. ``It's a loaded bracket.''

          If the high seeds all win, the Buckeyes would have to beat Kentucky in the round of 16 and North Carolina in the round of eight to win its bracket. Conversely, Pittsburgh would have to beat Wisconsin and Florida.

          The Hilton gave Pittsburgh 12-1 to win the title, Kornegay said. The other No. 1 seeds, Kansas and Duke, were each 5-1 to win the tournament.

          Cantor gave Duke 9-1 odds and Pittsburgh 10-1 odds, Colbert said.

          Among No. 2 seeds, Colbert said San Diego State got the easiest draw in the western region, with Duke at the top and Connecticut the No. 3 seed.

          ``I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them get into the Final Four,'' he said.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            OSU, KU, Pitt and Duke get top seeds

            March 13, 2011


            Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh and defending champion Duke have been awarded the top seeds in this year's NCAA tournament, an expanded version of March Madness that will include 68 teams.

            The Buckeyes defeated Penn State 71-60 in the Big Ten tournament final on Sunday and were named the top seed in the entire field. They'll play in the East region.

            The tournament - and America's most-celebrated office pool - starts Tuesday with the first of four first-round games - the ``First Four,'' as it's being called by the NCAA. Two of those games will pit the last of 37 at-large teams to make it into the field, an increase of three teams over years past.

            Kansas is the Big 12 champion and will play in the Southwest, while Pitt earned a top seed despite losing in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament and will play in the Southeast.

            Duke beat North Carolina to win the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament and edge out Notre Dame for the last No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils, seeking to become the first repeat champion since Florida in 2006-07, will have to travel West to make the Final Four; that regional is set for Anaheim, Calif.

            The tournament concludes with the Final Four in Houston on April 2 and 4.

            In the East region, Ohio State will open against the winner of an opening-round game between 16th seeds Texas-San Antonio and Alabama State. No. 8 George Mason will play No. 9 Villanova. No. 4 Kentucky will play No. 13 Princeton and No. 5 West Virginia will play the winner of a First Four matchup between No. 12 seeds UAB and Clemson.

            No. 2 North Carolina will play No. 15 Long Island and No. 7 Washington will play No. 10 Georgia, a bubble team. No. 3 Syracuse will play Larry Bird's alma mater, No. 14 Indiana State and No. 6 Xavier will play No. 11 Marquette, one of four Big East teams in the East region.

            In the West, Duke will start its journey near home in Charlotte, with a second-round game against No. 16 Hampton, while No. 8 Michigan will play No. 9 Tennessee. No. 5 Arizona will play No. 12 Memphis, the Conference USA champion, and No. 4 Texas plays No. 13 Oakland.

            No. 2 San Diego State plays No. 15 Northern Colorado and No. 7 Temple meets No. 10 Penn State, which made the tournament despite 14 losses. Rounding out that part of the bracket, No. 3 Connecticut, the Big East tournament champion, plays No. 14 Bucknell and No. 6 Cincinnati plays No. 11 Missouri.

            In the Southwest, No. 1 Kansas will open play against No. 16 Boston University and Lon Kruger will lead No. 8 UNLV against a team he used to coach, No. 9 Illinois. No. 5 Vanderbilt will play No. 12 Richmond and No. 4 Louisville will play No. 13 Morehead State.

            Second-seeded Notre Dame will play 15th-seeded Akron and No. 7 Texas A&M faces No. 10 Florida State; No. 3 Purdue, winner of 10 of its last 12 games, will play the 14th-seeded St. Peter's Peacocks, while No. 6 Georgetown will play the winner of a First Four matchup between 11th-seeded Southern Cal and Virginia Commonwealth.

            In the Southeast, No. 1 Pittsburgh plays the winner of 16th-seeded UNC-Ashville and Arkansas-Little Rock and last year's runner-up, No. 8 Butler, plays No. 9 Old Dominion. No. 5 Kansas State plays No. 12 Utah State and No. 4 Wisconsin plays No. 13 Belmont.

            The second-seeded Florida Gators play No. 15 UC-Santa Barbara and No. 7 UCLA returns to the tournament to play No. 10 Michigan State. No. 3 Brigham Young plays No. 14 Wofford, while No. 11 Gonzaga plays No. 6 St. John's - the 11th team from the Big East placed in the bracket.

            The Big Ten was next with seven teams, while the Big 12 and SEC had five each. There were seven at-large teams from the so-called mid-majors - one fewer than last year, even though there were three more spots to dole out.

            Among those who couldn't make it despite the bigger field were Harvard, St. Mary's, Alabama, perennial bubble team Virginia Tech and Colorado, which beat Kansas State for a third time this season en route to its first trip to the Big 12 semifinals.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              BYU earns No. 3 seed, faces Wofford

              March 13, 2011


              PROVO, Utah (AP) - BYU players were excited, not disappointed, at receiving a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament and facing the Wofford Terriers in a second-round game Thursday in Denver.

              ``We had a great year this year and the selection committee saw that and wanted to reward us for that,'' point guard Jimmer Fredette said of playing fairly close to home. ``This is the highest seed since I've been here and we have a good opportunity to do some things in the tournament with our talent and the confidence we have. I look forward to going out with a bang in my senior year.''

              Two weeks ago, the Cougars (30-4) harbored hopes of a No. 1 seed after climbing to a No. 3 ranking only to have leading rebounder Brandon Davies booted off the team for violating the school's honor code. They dropped two of their last five, including a 72-54 loss Saturday to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference tournament finals.

              ``Obviously you would love to have a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, but no matter what seed, you have to beat teams to advance,'' BYU guard Jackson Emery said.

              ``I think it's good placement for us,'' forward Noah Hartsock added. ``We have a great fan base out in Denver and I think that's really going to help with all the support.''

              Despite the double-digit loss to the Aztecs, a team BYU beat twice during the regular season, Fredette said the eighth-ranked Cougars' psyche isn't damaged.

              ``We've been good about when we lose a game, coming back and getting a win right afterward,'' said Fredette, the nation's leading scorer and Player of the Year candidate.

              The key will be getting some rest after playing three physical games in three days.

              Fredette admitted he was a ``little sore,'' but promised it was nothing to worry about. Hartsock was still hoarse after taking a shot to his throat against San Diego State. And senior forward Logan Magnusson, one of the players asked to pick up the slack since Davies' departure, has a sore back.

              ``It's important now to settle into the routine of this week,'' BYU coach Dave Rose said. ``We've got some guys that have been through this before. Monday and Tuesday practices will be important for us for preparation and also to recover from a tough game. The mindset first and foremost with our guys is while it's an NCAA tourney game, it's a bounce-back game for us. We need to get back on the winning track.''

              They face a Wofford team that is playing in its second straight NCAA tournament and riding an eight-game winning streak.

              It can only help the Cougars that the game is in Denver, where the thin air of the Mile High City should help a team used to playing an uptempo style at high altitude.

              If BYU gets past the Terriers (21-12), the Cougars will face the winner of the St. Johns-Gonzaga game on Saturday.

              Many figure BYU will only go as far as Fredette can carry them.

              Last year, Fredette scored 37 points as BYU upset Florida, 99-92, in double-overtime to advance to the NCAA's second round under the old format. It was the Cougars' first NCAA tournament win in 17 years, but they lost to No. 2 seed Kansas State, 84-72, in the second round when Fredette hit just 5 of 13 shots for 21 points.

              This year he leads the nation, averaging 28.3 points.

              He scored 52 in a payback win over New Mexico in the conference tourney semifinals on Friday but saw his shooting percentage drop as the Aztecs tried to make the rest of the Cougars beat them in the finals.

              They couldn't.

              ``We had good looks the other night, but for whatever reason we had a hard time getting them (to fall),'' Rose said. ``This can be a really consistent offensive rebounding team and when we're in the right mindset and playing with the right energy, we can get a lot of second and third possessions with how active we are.''

              Without Davies, the Cougars are just 3-2, and their lack of experience inside could hurt most if they advance deeper into the tourney.

              Though Davies will not be allowed to play again this season, he was allowed to accompany the team to Las Vegas for the conference tournament. Rose said it has yet to be determined whether Davies will be allowed to travel with the team to Denver.

              Fredette isn't worried about outside distractions, or the spotlight being on him.

              ``I'm pretty used to it and I don't worry about what other people's expectations are - mine are usually bigger,'' he said.

              Players said there was no animosity that San Diego State received the No. 2 seed in the West.

              ``I don't think there's an easy road in the tournament,'' Fredette said. ``Even a No. 1 seed has got to play an 8 or 9 seed and some are ready to go.''

              This will be BYU's fifth straight NCAA tourney appearance, and the fourth for Fredette in four years.

              ``We advanced last year and hopefully we'll advance even further this year,'' Fredette said. ``It's do or die. I just have to go out there and play with those type of expectations.''

              This will be BYU's 26th appearance in the NCAA tournament. The No. 3 seed matches the highest the Cougars have ever been seeded in the NCAAs. They were a No. 3 seed in 1980, when the Cougars earned a first-round bye then fell to No. 6 seed Clemson in the second round.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #8
                Princeton to face Kentucky in opener

                March 13, 2011


                PRINCETON, N.J. (AP) - Princeton is back in the NCAA tournament after a six-year absence and, as usual, one of college basketball's giants stands in its way - a situation followers of the Tigers are familiar with.

                One day after beating Harvard in a playoff game on Doug Davis' buzzer beater, the Ivy League champion was given a 13th seed Sunday and will meet fourth-seeded Kentucky (25-6) on Thursday in a second-round game in the East Regional.

                Kentucky beat Princeton 72-58 in a first-round game in 1977, the only other NCAA meeting between the schools

                Under coach Pete Carril, Princeton was famous for scaring major programs in the NCAA tournament. The most famous is still a one-point loss to top-seeded Georgetown in 1989 and there was also near-wins over Arkansas and Villanova.

                The Tigers beat defending champion UCLA in 1996, Carril's final year. Current head coach Sydney Johnson played in that game, which occurred 15 years ago Monday.

                Johnson, who was satisfied with the 13th seed, hopes a new generation can duplicate such magic.

                ``We've got to make our own history,'' the fourth-year coach said. ``I've challenged our guys. Obviously, we've done some nice things in the tournament. But those teams have done that by, every year, stepping up to their challenge and that's what we have to do.''

                The game will be a marked contrast in style and philosophy.

                Princeton is the academic powerhouse whose players grow up in the Tigers' deliberate system of precise ball movement. Kentucky coach John Calipari recruits blue chippers into his up-tempo program and often loses them to the NBA after one year.

                Johnson's immediate concerns were Kentucky freshmen Terrence Jones and Brandon Knight.

                ``Knight controls the game and he can shoot it,'' Johnson said. ``Terrence Jones is obviously an NBA talent.''

                Dictating tempo will be a key.

                ``We have to play our style of basketball and I think we'll be fine,'' Davis said. ``Those guys want to get up and down the court. But we're not going to back down.''

                If Princeton has one advantage, it's the vaunted system incorporated by Carril and tweaked by his successors.

                ``I think no matter who you are in the country you've heard about the Princeton offense, but I don't think a lot understand it fully, so we'll try to take them by surprise,'' said sophomore Ian Hummer, who averages a team-leading 13.9 points. ``Sometimes I even get confused.''

                Princeton is making an Ivy League-record 24th NCAA appearance, but its first since 2004, the Tigers' longest drought since 1970-75. Princeton went to the tournament nine times in 16 years before going 38-45 with no postseason appearances under Joe Scott from 2004-2007.

                After two rebuilding seasons under Johnson, Princeton went 22-9, finished second in the Ivy and went to the semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational last year.

                Princeton's 25 wins are the most since the 1997-98 team won a school-record 27.

                Johnson said there was never a timetable to get back in the tournament.

                ``I just wanted us to compete as hard as we could and try to win every basketball game,'' he said. ``Finally, we've been able to turn the corner.''

                Johnson is one of three former Tiger players to coach a team into the NCAAs this year, along with Georgetown's John Thompson III and Richmond's Chris Mooney. Johnson played with Mooney and coached under Thompson before coming to Princeton.

                ``I hope we're getting the program back to where it was when Coach J played,'' senior Dan Mavraides said. ``We have a lot of confidence in ourselves with what we've done this year, the teams we've beaten and how we played. We're definitely ready for this challenge.''
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #9
                  Defending champ Duke gets West No. 1 seed

                  March 13, 2011


                  GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) - Duke's path to a second straight national championship will take the Blue Devils west.

                  The lingering question is whether injured point guard Kyrie Irving will be back at some point to run the show.

                  The Atlantic Coast Conference champions claimed the No. 1 seed in the West Regional on Sunday night when the NCAA announced its 68-team tournament field.

                  The Blue Devils (30-4) will stay close to home in the state of North Carolina for the opening weekend. They will face Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champion Hampton in the second round Friday in Charlotte.

                  If they get past the 16th-seeded Pirates and the Michigan-Tennessee winner, they'll be headed to Anaheim, Calif., for the West Regional semifinals.

                  Duke beat rival North Carolina earlier Sunday to win the ACC tournament title for the third straight year, and that helped the Blue Devils edge out Notre Dame for the fourth No. 1 seed.

                  After the game, Irving told reporters in the locker room that there was a chance he could return from his toe injury during the NCAA tournament. Coach Mike Krzyzewski later downplayed that, saying ``we're far away from that decision.'' The coach said he thought Irving simply got caught up in the emotion of missing out on the ACC championship.

                  Irving has been sidelined for more than three months with an injured big toe on his right foot. He said he injured bones in the toe when it was bent back in the Butler win Dec. 4, and it has taken time for the tissue that connects the bones to heal. He was seen performing drills with team staff members in shorts and sneakers on the court before the ACC quarterfinal win against Maryland, but switched to street clothes for the games.

                  ``He's worked out here every day and we're not trying to hide anything,'' Krzyzewski said. ``We've tried to show, first of all, that we have a guy named Kyrie and secondly that he's progressing well.''

                  Duke managed to earn a top seed without the floor general.

                  The Blue Devils are a No. 1 seed for the second straight year and the 12th time overall. They are in the tournament for the 27th time in 28 years and for the 16th straight season.

                  Shortly after Duke's 75-58 victory for the ACC title in Greensboro, forward Mason Plumlee said he felt his team deserved a No. 1 seed.

                  ``But at the same time, it doesn't matter where we end up,'' he said. ``We're just looking forward to the tournament. One seed, 2 seed, 3 seed, we'll be ready to play.''

                  Krzyzewski agreed, saying after the win against UNC that he didn't know how the seeding was going to play out.

                  ``We're 30-4 and we won the ACC. We probably should be (a No. 1),'' he said, ``but if we're not, we're not. I'm OK. Let's just ... figure out where the heck we're going and start 0-0 again.''

                  Among the biggest obstacles to his 12th Final Four and fifth national championship include possible regional semifinal opponent Texas, the No. 4 seed.

                  A pair of other powerful conference champions - No. 2 seed and Mountain West winner San Diego State, and No. 3 seed and Big East champ Connecticut - are in the other half of the West bracket and loom as potential regional final opponents.

                  The Blue Devils hope they can follow their ACC title with another national championship, just as they did last year when that late-peaking group got hot down the stretch and rolled to Indianapolis. They held off Butler - and the Bulldogs' halfcourt heave at the buzzer - to win their fourth title, all since 1991.

                  Two starters from that team - Kyle Singler, the most outstanding player at the Final Four, and Nolan Smith, this year's ACC player of the year - helped propel the Blue Devils to their ACC-record 19th league tournament crown with three convincing wins in three days at the Greensboro Coliseum. That came after they lost two of three to close the regular season, including one at North Carolina that gave the outright regular-season title to the Tar Heels.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NCAA Tournament Odds: Duke, Ohio St. top list

                    Ohio State and Duke share plus-400 futures odds to win the 2011 NCAA Tournament.
                    Selection Sunday was not without its normal drama as the field of 68 teams for this year’s NCAA Men’s Tournament was unveiled. Despite the fact the field was extended by three teams this season to form an eight-team first round play-in, controversy still surrounded the inclusion of UAB and VCU at the expense of Colorado and Virginia Tech.

                    Regardless of the rationale behind the selection committee’s decisions, the field is set and futures odds for each team’s chances to win this year’s championship have been set.

                    While everyone loves the bracket busters and Cinderella’s that are lurking out there, the reality is that past history tells us there are just a handful of teams that have a legitimate shot at winning the national title. The lowest seed to ever win this tournament was Villanova in 1985 as a No.8, and while it is rare that all four No.1 seeds advance to the Final Four, there is always a good chance that at least one or two of them will get there.

                    Speaking of No.1 seeds, the Ohio State Buckeyes are the top team for this year’s tournament. They have also been opened as the co-favorite to win it all at plus 400. The defending champion Duke Blue Devils, who just so happen to be one of the other four No.1 seeds, share the plus 400 odds.

                    Ohio State will anchor the East Region and should have a clear path to the Sweet 16 with a potential matchup against Kentucky (plus 1600) in that round. Assuming the Buckeyes take care of the Wildcats, they will most likely face the winner of No.3 Syracuse (plus 2500) versus No.2 North Carolina (plus 1800) game to advance to the Final Four. Either of these teams would be a stern test, but it is hard to see Ohio State bowing out at this point.

                    Duke will come out of the West Region and should advance to the Sweet 16 with relative ease. The No.4 Texas Longhorns (plus 1800) could prove to be an obstacle in this round if they can regain their midseason form, but stick with the Blue Devils to make it into the Elite Eight where things could unravel for the Blue Devils if No. 3 Connecticut continues to play like it did in the Big East Tournament.

                    Right now the big question for the Huskies at plus 2500 is how much did playing five games in five days take out of them? If Kemba Walker and Co. have anything left in the tank, then UConn has to be considered one of the most dangerous teams in the field.

                    The Kansas Jayhawks, seeded No.1 Southwest Region, are the third-favorite to win it all at plus 450. Look for them to tangle with No. 4 seed Louisville (plus 2500) in the Sweet 16 and No.2 seed Notre Dame (plus 1800) in the Elite Eight. Kansas will get by the Cardinals before running into a highly experienced and motivated Irish team that is out to prove it should have been a No.1 seed.

                    The final No.1 seed and fourth-favorite at plus 600 is Pittsburgh. The Panthers will have to navigate their way through the Southeast Region, which is filled with potential traps after the first round. No.9 Old Dominion (plus 12500) matches up extremely well with the Panthers in the second round and No.5 Kansas State (plus 3300) can present a serious challenge in the Sweet 16.

                    Assuming that Pitt survives those two games, it actually has pretty smooth sailing all the way to the Final Four with a depleted No.3 BYU (plus 2800) and an overrated No.2 Florida (plus 2500) standing in its way.

                    The teams that offer the greatest value in this tournament are Notre Dame and Connecticut. Both schools are deep in talent and well-coached. Most importantly, coming out of the highly competitive Big East they are battle-tested and have already proven they can stand toe-to-toe with the best teams in the country.

                    If you want to stick with a favorite, then ride Ohio State all the way to a national title. It has been the most consistent team all season long and offers the best value of any of the top four teams.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      NCAA Tournament Analyzing Early Upsets


                      We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
                      Overall Trends

                      This column focuses on the Recent Round of 64, which is now referred to as the Second Round because of the inclusion of the First Four games.


                      Analyzing the Recent Round of 64 Upsets
                      After three years of favorites dominating the NCAA Tournament, last year saw a lot more upsets (worse seeds winning) throughout the tournament. From 2007-2009, there were only 23 total first-round upsets, but in 2010, there were 10 defeats of higher-seeded teams. Below are some other upset characteristics over these past four NCAA Tournaments that will hopefully win you some money this year.
                      1) Almost half the upsets (16 of 33) came in the 7-10 or 8-9 games.

                      2) Of the 33 upsets, 23 came in games with point spreads of 3.5 or less. In five of them, the lesser seed was favored by oddsmakers. Only two were 10-point underdogs, including #14 Ohio beating #3 Georgetown last year.

                      3) Mountain West teams were 2-6 vs. “A” level opponents, while the Pac-10 was 4-5 versus other power-conference schools.

                      4) Power-conference schools playing as seeds 9 through 12 are 16-17 SU in the first round over the past four years. These are teams that likely played their way off the bubble and into the tournament field late in the season and entered the tournament on a high note.

                      5) The OVER has a record of 22-10-1 (69%) in the 33 lower-seed victories since 2007, with the winning team scoring a hefty 76.0 PPG. Lower seeded teams that have scored at least 76 points in their first-round game are 18-4. Look for spots where the underdog plays an up-tempo game, either by their fast-paced offense or opponent’s suspect defense.

                      6) This last portion is credited to Peter Tiernan at BracketScience.com:He indicates, in the opening round, to look for senior-led, guard-dominant longshots with a strong starting unit and solid records that handily beat opponents – but aren’t playing favorites too close to home. Restrict your choice of first-round Cinderellas to teams that:
                      --Have a winning record better than 60%.
                      --Have won more than three of their past 10 games.
                      --Get more than 25% of their points from guards.
                      --Get more than 67% of their points from their top five scorers.
                      --Score more than 71 and beat teams by more than 6.0 PPG.
                      --Have at least one senior starter.
                      --And are not facing a favorite within 300 miles of the favorite’s campus.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                      • #12
                        NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Trends


                        We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
                        Overall Trends
                        Analyzing Early Upsets
                        This column focuses on the Round of 64, which is now referred to as the Second Round because of the inclusion of the First Four games. The first section provides trends for the entire round, and section two is separated by each matchup in terms of seed numbers.


                        Round of 64
                        As well as favorites usually fare in the first round, the underdog is an identical 17-13-2 ATS (57%) in each of the past two years. Also, 10 lower seeds have escaped the first round in each of the past two tournaments, which includes four #12 seeds, two #13 seeds and one #14 seed.

                        Underdogs of less than 10 points are 10-9 SU in each of the past two years and a combined 24-13-1 ATS (65%).

                        The majority of first round tournament upsets from 2005-2009 had occurred in the Friday games, by a ratio of 24-16 compared to Thursday. But last year’s tournament had seven lower seeded teams win on Thursday and just three upsets on Friday.

                        Seed Matchup Results
                        #1 vs. #16: As I’m sure you’re aware, a #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed outright in the NCAA Tournament. The #1s have covered 12 of 16 games (75%) in the past four years with an average winning margin of approximately 30.0 PPG. The OVER is 10-6 (63%) in these four years.

                        #2 vs. #15: No #2 seed has lost to a #15 outright since 2001, but over the last six years, the #15 owns a 60% ATS advantage (12-8-4). All four #2 vs. #15 games finished UNDER last year.

                        #3 vs. #14: The #3 seeds went 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS (83%) with a 15.1 PPG scoring margin from 2007-2009, but last year was a different story. #14 Ohio crushed #3 Georgetown by 14 points and 14-seeds Montana and Sam Houston State lost by five and nine points respectively to win ATS. The UNDER is 10-6 (63%) in the past four years and 22-10 (69%) dating back to 2003.

                        #4 vs. #13: The #4 seed is 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in the past five years. Last year, #13 Murray State beat #4 Vanderbilt outright.

                        #5 vs. #12: The #12 seed has gone 11-17 SU vs. the #5 seed in the past seven tournaments. With the general public in love with the 12 seeds, last year saw three #5 seeds favored by three points or less (#5 Butler -2.5 vs. #12 UTEP, #5 Texas A&M -2.5 vs. #12 Utah St. and #5 Temple -3 vs. #12 Cornell). “A” level conference teams are on a 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS (83%) run on the #12 line.

                        #6 vs. #11: Even with the spreads in last year’s 6-11 games all three points or less, the #6 seeds only went 1-2-1 ATS with the two losses also being SU defeats (#6 Marquette lost to #11 Washington and #6 Notre Dame lost to #11 Old Dominion). #6 seeds are now 12-8 SU & 9-10-1 ATS since 2006. Since 1998, when #6 seeds are favored by five points or less, they are usually a good bet, at 18-9-1 ATS (67%). On the flip side, #6 seeds giving more than five points are a dismal 8-16 ATS (33%) over this same span.

                        #7 vs. #10: Three #10 seeds have won outright in each of the past two years, but #10 seeds are still just 14-22 ATS (39%) since 2002. The straight-up winner in the 7-10 matchup has also covered the spread in 52 straight games dating back to 1998.

                        #8 vs. #9: This series remains as close as one would expect, with the #9 seeds owning a slight 25-23 SU and 25-21-2 ATS advantage in the past 12 years. Although these four games were split 2-2 in terms of SU, ATS and Over/Under last year, the OVER is 23-13 (64%) since 2002.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Trends


                          We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
                          Overall Trends
                          Analyzing Early Upsets
                          Round of 64 Trends
                          This column focuses on the Round of 32, which is now referred to as the Third Round because of the inclusion of the First Four games.


                          Round of 32
                          After a 2009 tournament that saw only one second-round upset, there were six lower seeded teams that advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2010. #14 Murray State covered the spread in a two-point loss to #5 Butler to give lower seeded teams a 7-9 ATS mark in last year’s second round. The OVER had a slight 9-7 edge in these games last year after going 12-4 in 2009.

                          The six upsets were split 3/3 in terms of Saturday and Sunday, but Sunday is usually the bigger upset day with 39 of the 67 lower-seed wins (58%) happening then. The Sunday lower seeds are 39-53 SU (42%) and 50-46 ATS (52%).

                          Northern Iowa’s stunning upset of Kansas last year as an 11.5-point underdog broke a string of 23 straight SU wins for double-digit favorites in Round 2. Teams laying 10+ points are now 17-7 ATS (71%) since 2001.

                          The #3 seed had survived the first weekend in all eight instances from 2008-2009, going 7-1 ATS. But only one of the four #3 seeds (Baylor) reached the Sweet 16 last year. The #3 seed game is 10-4-1 OVER (71%) the total since 2007.

                          Only one #4 seed reached the Sweet 16 last year, which makes them 17-20 SU & 12-25 ATS (32%) since 1998.

                          First-round upset winners were 5-5 ATS in the second round last year, but were only 4-11 ATS (27%) when going for back-to-back wins over better seeds in the previous two years.

                          In second-round games where a double-digit seed has faced a team seeded #6 or worse, the better seed is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS over the last 12 years. There was only one instance of this last year, as #14 Ohio was crushed by #6 Tennessee 83-68 in Round 2.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            NCAA Tournament Conference Trends: ACC


                            We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
                            Overall Trends
                            Analyzing Early Upsets
                            Round of 64 Trends
                            Round of 32 Trends
                            This column begins our run of Conference Trends, and we start with the ACC, which has four teams in the 2011 NCAA Tournament field:
                            #1 DUKE
                            #2 NORTH CAROLINA
                            #10 FLORIDA STATE
                            #12 CLEMSON


                            Tournament Trends by Conference
                            Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various level conferences, followed by specific trends for each league. ******* recognizes the ACC with an “A” rating.

                            In matchups where an “A” team is seeded better than a “B” school, the “A” team is 33-21-2 ATS (61%) since 2005.

                            “A” vs. “D” matchups have been dominated by the “A” teams to the tune of 36-3 SU and 25-11-3 ATS (69%) over the past four years.

                            Thirteen of the last 17 (76%) matchups between better seeded “B” teams and worse seeded “A” teams have finished OVER the total.

                            When “B” conferences have been favored over “A” schools since 1999, the OVER is 26-14 (65%).

                            ACC Trends
                            Over the past four tournaments, North Carolina is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS. All other ACC teams are a combined 18-20 SU & 15-22-1 ATS (41%).

                            As favorites of five points or less in the NCAA Tournament, ACC schools are 2-11 ATS (15%) and 3-10 SU in the past 13 instances. The UNDER is 8-5 in these games.

                            ACC teams are 52-1 SU, but 25-26-2 ATS as double-digit favorites in NCAA Tournament games since 1998. The UNDER is 35-16-2 (69%) in this 53-game sample.

                            When the Big East and ACC match up in the tourney, UNDERDOGS are 9-14 SU, but 15-7-1 ATS (68%). The Big East holds the 13-10 SU & 13-9-1 ATS advantages.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • #15
                              NCAA Tournament Conference Trends: A-10


                              We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
                              Overall Trends
                              Analyzing Early Upsets
                              Round of 64 Trends
                              Round of 32 Trends
                              Conference Trends: ACC
                              This column continues our run of Conference Trends, featuring the Atlantic 10, which has three teams in the 2011 NCAA Tournament field:
                              #6 XAVIER
                              #7 TEMPLE
                              #12 RICHMOND


                              Tournament Trends by Conference
                              Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various level conferences, followed by specific trends for each league. ******* recognizes the Atlantic 10 with a “B” rating.

                              In matchups where an “A” team is seeded better than a “B” school, the “A” team is 33-21-2 ATS (61%) since 2005.

                              Thirteen of the last 17 (76%) matchups between better seeded “B” teams and worse seeded “A” teams have finished OVER the total.

                              In matchups between two “B” level schools, the better seeds are 7-2 SU & 7-1-1 ATS (88%) in the past nine instances. The only ATS loss here was #8 UNLV losing to #9 Northern Iowa last year.

                              When “B” conference schools play as better seeds against lesser conference teams, they are just 8-18 ATS (31%) since 2000, including 0-3 ATS last year.

                              When “B” conferences have been favored over “A” schools since 1999, the OVER is 26-14 (65%).

                              Atlantic 10 Trends
                              Xavier is 11-6 SU & 14-1-2 ATS (93%) in the NCAAs since 2004, but all other A-10 teams are 5-12 SU & 3-13-1 ATS (19%) in this same time frame.

                              The last seven tournament games between the Atlantic-10 and Big East have been covered by underdogs (6-1 SU).

                              Entering last year, favorites were on a run of 17-2 SU & 12-5-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament games.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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