2010-2011 CBB Preview Top 25 !

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2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 7 Kansas

#7 KANSAS JAYHAWKS

2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 92% (33-3)
ATS Record: 44% (14-18-1)
Over (Total): 47% (15-17)
Points Scored: 81.6 PPG
Points Allowed: 64.2 PPG
Scoring Margin: 17.4 PPG
BACKCOURT
A three-year starter and one of the nation’s top freshman point guards will form the nucleus of the Kansas backcourt. Junior Tyshawn Taylor (7.2 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.4 RPG) started in 25 of the Jayhawks 36 games last season, and could be one of the fastest players in the Big 12. Taylor will combo with Josh Selby, a 6-foot-2 playmaker out of Baltimore. Selby is being touted as the highest-rated point guard ever signed in the Bill Self era. As good as Sherron Collins was at the point, Selby is bigger, quicker, and in time maybe better, given his skill set. Selby will have a variety of weapons to involve in the offense just among the guards. Seniors Brady Morningstar (4.1 PPG, 2.9 APG) and Tyrel Reed (5.1 PPG, 47.3% three-point FG) will provide valuable offense off the bench. Mario Little, a senior who redshirted last season, could also work himself into a backcourt rotation that is deep.

FRONTCOURT
It’s never easy replacing a big man who leaves to become an NBA lottery pick like Cole Aldrich did last summer. Self is confident that the Morris twins will be up to the task. Six-foot-8 Marcus Morris (12.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 57.0 FG%) has an offensive game that is one of the most lethal in the conference. Lost in his improving numbers is his 37.5 FG% from beyond the arc. Twin brother Markieff came off the bench last year to average 6.8 PPG, and 5.3 RPG while shooting a very impressive 56.6% from the floor. With the taller Markieff starting in the middle, Marcus will be freed up to play power forward, a position that should help his offensive game considerably. Sophomores Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey should provide strength and length off the bench. With additional playing time this season, Withey’s shot-blocking ability could help fill the defensive void left by the departure of Aldrich.

OUTLOOK
They were 33-2, a No. 1 seed with a conference title and a 15-1 regular season mark earned in the brutal Big 12. They had NCAA Championship experience, playmakers on the inside and outside, size, speed, swagger, and Northern Iowa waiting for them in the second round of the tournament. Poof. Forty minutes later they were headed back home to Lawrence after one of the seminal moments of the 2010 NCAA Tournament. The shocking two-point defeat left many questions for Jayhawk fans. How to fill the holes left by the departures of early draft entrants Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry, along with senior Sherron Collins left more questions for this season. But when you are Bill Self, overseeing a program that has averaged 31 victories over the past five seasons, you begin to answer those lingering doubts with talent. That depth of talent starts with the Morris twins, who will team up in the starting lineup to form a brotherly 1-2 punch that will be second to none. The twins combined for 19.6 PPG and 11.4 RPG last season. With both of them starting now, those numbers are sure to soar. Third year starter Tyshawn Taylor will continue to develop, but someone will need to fill that “Mr. Clutch” void handled so masterfully the past four years by the cool Sherron Collins. Self will turn to freshman Josh Selby to run his offense with the confidence that the star recruit can do it, and the hope that he will stay beyond his freshman year. This year’s team has a lot of impressive numbers to live up to. Kansas led the Big 12 in scoring, scoring defense, FG Pct., three point FG Pct., and rebounding margin en route to outscoring its opponents by 17.4 PPG. How good this year’s team is at matching last year’s performance, and how much they are motivated by the words “Northern Iowa” will determine how good their chances are of taking the floor in Reliant Stadium on the first Saturday in April.

While going undefeated at home (18-0 SU) the Jayhawks were 7-8 ATS. Against Big 12 conference opponents, Kansas was 18-1 SU, but 8-10-1 ATS.

Sportsbook.com Odds to Win NCAA Championship: 20-to-1

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2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 6 Villanova


#6 VILLANOVA WILDCATS


2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 76% (25-8)
ATS Record: 56% (18-14)
Over (Total): 56% (18-14)
Points Scored: 81.8 PPG
Points Allowed: 72.8 PPG
Scoring Margin: 9.0 PPG

BACKCOURT
With the graduation of Scottie Reynolds and his 2,222 career points, head coach Jay Wright will turn to senior mainstays Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes to carry the scoring and leadership mantle for the Wildcats. Fisher (13.3 PPG, 3.9 APG) is the top returning scorer and assist man for Wright and hopes to repeat his 39.6% three-point FG performance from last season. Stokes (9.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG) will swing between the guard and forward positions. He also shot very impressively from beyond the arc (38.3%). Sophomores Maalik Wayns (6.8 PPG, 15.0 MPG) and Dominic Cheek (4.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG) each proved that they could fill it up last year coming off the bench. Wayns was named to the Big East All-Rookie Team.

FRONTCOURT
Villanova was expecting a major splash last season from 6-foot-10 Mouphataou Yarou, but a Hepatitis-B diagnosis forced him to miss seven weeks of the season, and limited his effectiveness and minutes in the 21 games he did play. This season, Wright gets Yarou (4.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG) healthy from day one, where he will man the starting center spot and move the feisty Antonio Pena (10.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) back to the power forward slot. Sophomore big man Maurice Sutton looks to lend shot-blocking ability off the bench, while Isaiah Armwood and McDonald’s All-American JayVaughn Pinkston look to crack the rotation in a big way.

OUTLOOK
Last season Villanova won 20 of its first 21 games and were looking like a Big East team that would surely challenge for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. What happened after that is not exactly known, but something went missing from Jay Wright’s squad. Seven losses in its last 12 games were highlighted by a first-round loss in the Big East Tournament, and a first-round overtime escape in the NCAA Tournament over No. 15 seed Robert Morris. By the time 10th-seeded Saint Mary’s sent them home in the second round it was clear the needle on ’Nova’s gas tank had long since passed Empty. With greater depth, size and a blend of youth and experience (three senior starters), Jay Wright has the pieces in place for a seventh straight 20-win season and accompanying NCAA berth. The key is Fisher, who is poised to replace Reynolds with his own mix of penetration, playmaking, and perimeter shooting. Additionally everyone around the program is excited to see what a healthy Yarou can produce in the paint. Circle December 30 on Villanova’s schedule. That’s when the Wildcats will look to avenge their first loss of last season when they play crosstown rival Temple. What makes this contest must see TV? Simple: In Philadelphia, Big 5 rivalry games aren’t life and death. They’re bigger than that.

Villanova was 12-2 SU at home, and 8-5 ATS. As a favorite they were 21-6 SU, but 15-12 ATS. The Wildcats ranked 14th in the Big East in scoring defense (72.8 PPG), and 4th in rebounding margin (+4.7 RPG).

Sportsbook.com Odds to Win NCAA Championship: 25-to-1

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2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 3 Kansas State


#3 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS


2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 78% (29-8)
ATS Record: 68% (21-10-1)
Over (Total): 55% (17-14)
Points Scored: 79.7 PPG
Points Allowed: 69.8 PPG
Scoring Margin: 9.9 PPG

BACKCOURT
The success of Kansas State basketball will all begin, and in all likelihood end, with how successful preseason All-American pick Jacob Pullen is at duplicating his performance of last year. Pullen (19.3 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.6 RPG) will receive even more attention this season as he moves over to the point for head coach Frank Martin. Pullen will need some help with the scoring slack. That help is expected to come from either sophomores Nick Russell, Martavious Irving or Rodney McGruder (3.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 41.9 three-point FG%). Incoming freshmen Shane Southwell or Will Spradling could also earn a shot at contributing. Out of these options, Martin expects to find those second and third scoring threats to make his backcourt complete, as well as complementing the superb Pullen.

FRONTCOURT
With transition often comes promotion. That will be the case up front for the Wildcats as last season’s Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Jamar Samuels (11.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 23.2 MPG) prepares to move into the starting lineup. He will team with senior forward Curtis Kelly (11.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG) the team’s top returning player on the boards as well as its second leading scorer. Kelly stepped it up during K-State’s NCAA run, averaging 15 points and 5.8 boards over four tournament games. Freddy Aspirilla, a transfer from Florida International where he averaged 13.7 PPG and 9.2 RPG as a freshman two years ago, is eligible to play for the ’Cats. Wally Judge (3.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG as a freshman) is looking forward to increasing his numbers in his sophomore season.

OUTLOOK
In three seasons as the head man in Manhattan, KS Frank Martin has twice lead the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 24 wins per season. Last year’s second place finish in the Big 12 was the highest for the program since joining the conference. K-State ultimately was just one win away from reaching the Final Four. But if you think Martin is satisfied with his resume, think again. The fiery coach bemoans the fact that his team did not win the Big 12 and did not reach the Final Four. That’s the new normal these days in Manhattan: winning is an expectation, and so are championship dreams. With arguably the nation’s best guard in Jacob Pullen manning the point, it’s easy to believe that the Wildcats will play for conference championships, and then some, this year. Add to that the experience of Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels and the additional depth provided by newcomer Freddy Aspirilla and you can see why many believe this year’s team might be better. The sooner Martin finds out who will be the Robin to Pullen’s Batman in the backcourt, the better. Kansas State will play highly-ranked Gonzaga November 22 in the CBE Classic in Kansas City. A win there could set up a showdown with defending national champion Duke. Now that’s what we call an early-season measuring stick.

K-State was the ninth-best free-throw shooting team (66.8%) in the Big 12, and the eighth-best team (36%) when it came to shooting the three ball. Against non-conference opposition, Kansas State was 16-2 SU and an impressive 9-3-1 ATS. In neutral site games, the Wildcats were 8-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS.

Sportsbook.com Odds to Win NCAA Championship: 20-to-1

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2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 2 Michigan State


#2 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS


2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 76% (28-9)
ATS Record: 42% (15-21)
Over (Total): 46% (15-18-1)
Points Scored: 71.8 PPG
Points Allowed: 63.8 PPG
Scoring Margin: 8.0 PPG

BACKCOURT
The Spartans may have to wait a little this season before its experienced backcourt reaches its maximum potential. That’s because top point guard Kalin Lucas (14.8 PPG, 4.0 APG, 45.3 FG%) will likely not be at 100 percent when the season begins, still recovering from the torn Achilles tendon he suffered in last March’s second-round tournament victory over Maryland. Befitting the mentality of Tom Izzo’s teams, Durrrell Summers (11.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG) picked it up when Lucas went down. Summers started drilling the three-pointer with much greater efficiency (17-of-34 from beyond the arc over five games) as the Spartans got deeper into the tournament. Izzo hopes to keep Summers focused on a nightly basis. Junior Korie Lucious saved Michigan State’s season in the game Lucas was injured, drilling the three-pointer at the buzzer to beat Maryland, and keeping the Spartans on the road to the Final Four. With senior Chris Allen kicked off the team, Lucious should have many more opportunities to contribute clutch performances. Senior Mike Kebler and junior Austin Thornton will provide depth which could be more important than usual depending on the status of Lucas.

FRONTCOURT
If the success of a football team begins in the trenches, the success of an Izzo basketball team begins in the frontcourt, where the banging takes place. Having dropped a few pounds in the offseason, Draymond Green (9.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.0 APG) will be a lean mean Spartan machine in the paint. Last season Green was one of the best bench players in the nation. This year he may be the team’s best all-around player, with room for his game to grow. Delvon Roe (6.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) started 30 games last year and hopes to put up bigger numbers with a move to his more natural power-forward position. Sophomores Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman, along with freshman Adreian Payne, will battle for minutes at center. If one had to guess, whomever is most willing to sacrifice his body for that one extra rebound will likely earn the minutes, as well as the admiration of Izzo.

OUTLOOK
No basketball program in America is characterized more by its football persona than Michigan State. Looking back at the signature win of its 2010 tournament run might explain why. Michigan State lost its best player to injury as an upstart Maryland team tenaciously fought back. Before they had time to panic, Durrell Summers responded with his best tournament performance ever, and Korie Lucious’ buzzer-beating three-pointer saved the day. No excuses, just responses. When a teammate goes down, another one steps in and steps up. That’s the Izzo way. Its earned the program six trips to the Final Four in the past 12 years, with a seventh berth very possible. The Spartans will need to see Lucas regain his First Team All-Big Ten form, as well as keep Durrell Summers hungry on a nightly basis. The experienced, physical frontline will need to continue its development. If Green and Roe can dominate the glass and help State repeat its league-leading performance in rebound margin (+8.6 RPG), the Spartans D should shine. Do those things, and remind Tom Izzo when March arrives, and it should be first down and goal to go for a third straight trip to the Final Four.

The Spartans were the second-best shooting team in the Big Ten (47.1 FG%) but ranked 11th in the league in free throws (68.5%). On its home floor, State was 15-2 SU but only 5-11 ATS. As a favorite, Sparty was 23-5 straight up, but 11-17 ATS. They were 14-4 SU vs. non-conference opponents, but 6-11 ATS.

Sportsbook.com Odds to Win NCAA Championship: 20-to-1

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2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 1 Duke


#1 DUKE BLUE DEVILS


2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 88% (35-5)
ATS Record: 61% (23-15-1)
Over (Total): 42% (16-22-1)
Points Scored: 77.0 PPG
Points Allowed: 61.0 PPG
Scoring Margin: 16.0 PPG

BACKCOURT
“Kyrie will be very, very good right away. There’s absolutely no question about that. He’s that good a basketball player”. Those are the words of head coach Mike Krzyzewski describing the freshman who will take over the point-guard duties for defending national champion Duke. No pressure there Kyrie Irving. The top freshman point guard in this year’s class should garner almost as much attention as preseason All-American pick Kyle Singler. While the scrutiny may not be a welcome dilemma, Irving will have a lot of weapons around him to ease his transition to the collegiate game. Returning wing Nolan Smith (17.4 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.8 RPG, 35.5 MPG) continued his steady improvement and penchant for hitting big shots. Smith shot 39.2% from beyond the arc and scored 29 points in the Elite Eight victory over Baylor that sent the Blue Devils to the Final Four. Sophomore Andre Dawkins (4.4 PPG) was also potent from downtown, and should continue to offer a boost off the bench. Seth Curry (brother of Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry), will be eligible to play this year after sitting out his transfer season. A pure scorer while at Liberty, Curry could be an offensive X factor for Coach K.

FRONTCOURT
There were many people pulling for Kyle Singler (17.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 39.9% three-point FG) to enter the NBA Draft after Duke won its title last spring. We suspect most of those people were opposing players tired of trying to guard him. Singler is back to try and become that rare starter on a back-to-back NCAA Championship team. Joining him in the frontcourt will be the brothers Plumlee, Mason (3.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 14.1 MPG) and Miles (5.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG). While departed big men Lance Thomas and Greg Zoubek were effective, high-effort guys, the Plumlees bring more athleticism and finishing ability to those starting lineup spots. Bulked-up sophomore Ryan Kelly and freshman Josh Hairston will spell Singler and the Plumlees off the bench.

OUTLOOK
How does a defending national champion lose its leading scorer, three senior starters, and still come back the next year as a preseason number one? Well, for starters, this is Duke, and Mike Krzyzewski isn’t heavy-handed because he has a Type A personality. He’s heavy-handed because four championship rings can make your hand heavier than you think. If anyone knows exactly what it will take to earn championship ring number five, it’s Coach K. Krzyzewski’s one-two punch of Singler and Smith are as experienced and clutch as any combo in the country. The addition of brothers Mason and Miles Plumlee to the starting lineup should position Duke to play a faster, more up-tempo offensive style. Until he is tested playing under one of the most intense microscopes in all of collegiate sports, Kyrie Irving will be an unproven commodity. Nonetheless, when you are already drawing comparisons to former Blue Devil great Jason Williams before playing your first game, and your Hall-of-Fame coach believes in you, there must be something to the hype. Just for fun, block out Wednesday night, December 1 on your schedule. Michigan State travels to Durham to play the Blue Devils. Thankfully since college basketball is not a BCS monarchy, this is a great matchup fans can enjoy early in the season without fear of seeing the loser’s title hopes ruined by one loss. Who knows, this one just might be the undercard for the real heavyweight match to come next April in the city of Houston.

Duke was tops in the ACC in free throws (75.9%), three-point FG (38.5%) and rebounding margin (+6.2 RPG). Duke was a perfect 13-0 SU in neutral-site games, and a strong 9-4 ATS. The Blue Devils were just 5-5 SU (3-6-1 ATS) on the road, but at home, the Blue Devils were a perfect 17-0 SU, and covered 69% of those games (11-5 ATS).

Sportsbook.com Odds to Win NCAA Championship: 3-to-1