Check out the total on San-Fran vs. Florida.

[griswold]

It's 6.

6!! Very rare.

Wow.

Both starters are good but I'd sure worry about a reliever screwing it up.

[bryce]

Insight on this Gris? I see an under written all over this but will I touch it? He'll no!!

[BigWeiner]

I won't be surprised if Josh Johnson goes the distance and gives up 1 or 2 runs. He is nasty right now. Cain has been pitching well of late also. It could very well be a 3 or 4 total IMO.

[BigWeiner]

JJohnson is 7-2, 0.89 in his last thirteen starts. Cain is 2-0, 1.20 in his last couple starts.

[BigWeiner]

FLORIDA at SAN FRANCISCO, 10:15 PM ET
JOHNSON: 7-0 OVER in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
CAIN: SAN FRANCISCO 15-7 OVER after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base

[BigWeiner]

2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)



JOSH JOHNSON vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
JOHNSON is 0-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.185.
His team's record is 0-4 (-5.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)



MATT CAIN vs. FLORIDA since 1997
CAIN is 3-0 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.089.
His team's record is 5-1 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-4. (-2.5 units)

[griswold]

I won't be surprised if Josh Johnson goes the distance and gives up 1 or 2 runs. He is nasty right now. Cain has been pitching well of late also. It could very well be a 3 or 4 total IMO.

Here's why I hate unders. let's suppose it's 1-1 in the seventh. SF could pinch hit for Cain and the reliever could get shelled.

If Florida is down 2-0, at some point they'll bat for Johnson. I think these unders are less risky in the AL where pinch hitting doesn't come into play for pitchers

[wayne1218]

I think these unders are less risky in the AL where pinch hitting doesn't come into play for pitchers

I don't get that thinking at all. Less risky? Unders are more risky in the A.L. when you have a DH and a Ortiz or Vlad batting 2 or 3 times each instead of a pitcher.

[BigWeiner]

I'd take under 3.5 first 5

[wayne1218]

The Top 5 teams in MLB based on runs scored are all from the A.L. and the top 6 teams in MLB based on team batting avg. are all also from the A.L.

"Park Factor" - Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher.

1 Yankee Stadium (New York, NY) 1.259
2 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.255
3 Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.241
4 Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (Arlington, Texas) 1.122
5 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 1.113
6 Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 1.090
7 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.083
8 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 1.071
9 Sun Life Stadium (Miami, Florida) 1.067
10 Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) 1.065
11 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.038
12 PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 1.012
13 Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia) 1.011
14 Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri) 1.007
15 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 0.997
16 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 0.993
17 Petco Park (San Diego, California) 0.987
18 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 0.986
19 Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota) 0.969
20 Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin) 0.944
21 Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) 0.927
22 Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio) 0.909
23 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California) 0.906
24 Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California) 0.902
25 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 0.898
26 Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California) 0.863
27 Citi Field (New York, NY) 0.856
28 Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington) 0.855
29 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida) 0.853
30 AT&T Park (San Francisco, California) 0.797


There is a reason why totals at this Park are lower on average than any other place in baseball. Add in 2 hot pitchers and the total shouldn't shock or surprise anybody. It is right on the money imo and if you bet the over, your best chance may be to say a prayer that it gets tied up at 3 at some point or you may be screwed getting to 7.