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Having just completed this year’s ******* Edge Annual, football is fresh on my mind. In addition to that, the NFL lines for Week 1 have been out for a few weeks now and it’s never too early to start looking at getting a jump on the oddsmakers. Let’s take a first look at what’s on tap for the NFL opening week of the 2010 season, from both a background and betting perspective. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.
Thursday, September 9
MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (-4, 52)
The season kicks off as usual on Thursday night, September 9th, with the defending Super Bowl Champions hosting the contest. This time around, it’s a rematch of the NFC Championship game between the Vikings and Saints. New Orleans won that thriller back in January in overtime, 31-28, en route to a first ever Super Bowl title. These teams were the top two teams in the NFL last year in points scored and thus the lofty total of 52 is well justified, although it is 1-1/2 points below last year’s title game total. The pointspread is identical. Of course so much of what happens in this game comes down to whether or not Brett Favre returns under center for Minnesota. Some notes to consider about this contest…the defending Super Bowl champ has opened at home the follow-up season the last six years. In those games, that host is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh field goal win over Tennessee the only pointspread blemish. The last three games have gone UNDER the total.
Sunday, September 12
CAROLINA at NY GIANTS (-7, 40)
Carolina visited the Giants two days after Christmas last season and humiliated them, winning 41-9 as an 8-point underdog. The Panthers were directed by Matt Moore at quarterback for that and four other contests down the stretch when they went 4-1. He is expected to be the starter in 2010 but the Carolina defense will be minus Julius Peppers. In this contest, the Panthers open as TD underdogs to a Giants team that is expected to be better, especially on defense, if for no other reason than they can’t much worse. New York yielded 40 points in five different games during their 3-8 skid down the stretch. A trend to note here, home favorites of -6 to -9.5 own an impressive 26-6 SU & 19-13 ATS (59%) in the opening week of the NFL season this decade. However, the ******* Power Ratings indicate Carolina should be a 3-point favorite. This will be the first ever regular season game at the Giants New Meadowlands home.
MIAMI (-3/-115, 38) at BUFFALO
Miami made a big offseason acquisition to obtain wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Broncos to improve a pass offense that gained just 5.23 yards per attempt last season, 23rd in the NFL. The Dolphins will be visiting a Buffalo team that from all intents and purposes seems to be in rebuilding mode. Miami is a 3-point road favorite and has gone 10-2 ATS on the road vs. conference foes over the last two seasons. The Bills ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yardage last season but hope that Chan Gailey, their new Head Coach, can engineer a turnaround. The trend to consider in this game is that all divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
ATLANTA (-1, 40) at PITTSBURGH
The first game in the suspension being served by Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger brings the Falcons to Pittsburgh, and it’s quite evident that oddsmakers have put huge stock in his absence, as Atlanta is the 1-point road favorite. Both teams were 9-7 a year ago, and Pittsburgh boasts the way stronger defense, thus the pointspread still seems like a potential overreaction. Still, the following trend would suggest the Falcons are the correct side to back: Road Favorites in NFL Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 13-8 ATS (62%) run. One other thing to consider, Atlanta was one of the best poinstpread-covering teams in the NFL in 2010, going 11-5 ATS, while Pittsburgh was one of the worst, 5-10-1 ATS. Expect either Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich to step in for Roethlisberger to start the season.
DETROIT at CHICAGO (-6½, 42½)
Considering that Detroit has only won two games over the last two seasons, and Chicago comes off a 7-9 campaign, the first in the Jay Cutler era, it’s unusual to see more optimism surrounding the Lions’ franchise. However, an offseason of encouraging young acquisitions along with the expected continued growth of Matt Stafford at quarterback has Lions fans thinking bigger in 2010. Chicago meanwhile, didn’t have a first or second round pick in April’s draft, and has put many of its eggs in two baskets, that of Cutler, and this past offseason prized acquisition, DE Julius Peppers. Realistically still, Detroit was 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 in division play a year ago and probably further away than people are giving credit for, at least out of the gate. Chicago won its final two games of 2009, both SU & ATS but will be fighting a trend that finds road underdogs of 3-1/2 points or more in divisional games of NFL’s opening week at 7-21 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) since 2000.
CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND (-6, 44)
The two losers of the wildcard round playoffs games in the AFC last January meet to open the 2010 season. There is a general line of thinking that the Patriots’ home playoff loss to the Ravens is signaling the end of the decade-long dominant regime, but there are enough other believers that as long as Tom Brady is under center and Bill Belichick is at the controls, that New England will be just fine. Oddsmakers seem to be cautiously leaning towards the latter, installing the Pats as 6-point favorites to a defending playoff team. Keep in mind that the Baltimore game was New England’s only home loss of the 2009 season. Cincinnati was also ousted at home in the postseason, by the Jets, but was stellar as an underdog, 7-2 ATS. Here is a trend concerning a possible play on the total of 44…When two Winning Teams from the prior year have played in Week 1, UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since ’03.
CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY (-2, 36)
Two of the league’s struggling franchises go head-to-head in Week 1, and the good news for one of them is that they’ll start 2010 off with a victory. If you consider the close to the 2009 season as an indicator, that team will likely be Cleveland, who won its last four games outright, and its last seven ATS. The Browns will be starting anew with Jake Delhomme at quarterback and Mike Holmgren as the new boss of football happenings. Tampa Bay played reasonably well down the stretch but not at the level of the Browns. They will be favored for the first time since the ’08 season, laying 2-points in this game. On that note, home favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-4 SU & ATS (71%) since 2001.
DENVER at JACKSONVILLE (-1½, 41)
Denver and Jacksonville combined to go just 2-8 in December last season, with each fading out of the AFC wildcard picture. One of them will at least get off to a good start for this fall. Head coach Josh McDaniels’ team is without its primary weapon of the last few years, WR Brandon Marshall. The Jaguars don’t have a plethora of offensive weapons to speak of overall. In that sense, perhaps the total is the way to go here. If you are looking at taking a side, consider Jack Del Rio’s team’s recent plight as the chalk…JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 5*)
INDIANAPOLIS (-3/-115, 47) at HOUSTON
Houston has its sights set on a first playoff berth in franchise history. The Texans seem to be right on the cusp of reaching that goal. However, unless something drastic changes this year, it would have to be as a wildcard, as the Colts remain the primary obstacle in winning the AFC South Division. Perhaps a win in the home opener can give HC gary Kubiak’s team the confidence and momentum it needs to become a contender. The Texans can score, and they come off a season in which they led the NFL in passing yardage. The Colts though do nearly everything well and as long as Peyton Manning is at quarterback, will always have a chance of winning the division. Indianapolis has won six straight games over the Texans and was 7-1 ATS on the road in the 2009 regular season. Keep an eye on this trend…All favorites of exactly 3-points boast a 29-10 SU & 21-12-5 ATS (64%) mark in Week 1 since 2000.
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (-7, 41)
Optimism reigns in both Oakland and Tennessee heading into the 2010 season. The Raiders, for once, had an offseason that is being widely regarded by the so-called experts. The biggest move they made was to trade for former Washington QB Jason Campbell, who always boasted decent numbers but could never get over the hump of being an elite quarterback. He has a decent running game behind him with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Speaking of good running games, the Titans have the best one in the NFL, with 2000+ yard rusher Chris Johnson. Assuming nothing negative comes out of his contract squabble, he’ll be back minus crutch Lendale White for 2010. Tennessee turned a 0-6 start into an 8-8 finish last season. Because they didn’t make the postseason, there is still work to be done. Oakland has covered five of the last six games between these teams and is actually 12-6 ATS on the road versus conference foes since 2006.
GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA (PK, 46)
Two of the perennial powers of the NFC over the last decade will get together in what should be a huge barometer for where each stands heading into 2010. On paper, Green Bay looks as good as anyone, with MVP-candidate Aaron Rodgers emerging into one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Games aren’t played on paper though, and the Packers will be looking to snap a 6-game losing skid in the City of Brotherly Love (1-5 ATS). Fortunately, the Pack has been very good on the road under Mike McCarthy, going 22-10 ATS. Philadelphia enters its first season in a long time without Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, or Brian Dawkins as the team leaders. McNabb has been replaced by Kevin Kolb, who Eagles management hopes will develop similarly to the way Rodgers did when he replaced Brett Favre. He has perhaps the most dynamic set of skill position players in the league at his disposal. Oddsmakers don’t know quite what to make of Philly at this point, setting this line up as a pick em’.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2, 38) at SEATTLE
Most NFL experts believe that there will be a changing of the guard in the NFC West after two years of Arizona rule. The two most likely beneficiaries are the 49ers and Seahawks. San Francisco is the odds-on-favorite to win the division in 2010, coming off a season in which it went 8-8 but lost six games by a touchdown or less. HC Mike Singletary’s club was 9-4 ATS and among the league leaders defensively in several key categories. Their success will hinge upon the performance of #1 pick Alex Smith at quarterback, who may finally be ready to take over the club as the bonafide leader. Seattle is set at quarterback with Matt Hasselbeck, but he is aging and may not have all that much left in the tank. Off a 5-11 season, new head coach Pete Carroll has transformed the roster to his liking. How it does out of the gate is a big concern though. With San Francisco playing as a 2-point road favorite, recall the trend from earlier, divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
ARIZONA (-3½, 41) at ST. LOUIS
The NFC West Division is in head-to-head mode on Week 1, and the Rams have a chance to make a huge statement against an Arizona team that could be in a transitional year. The Cardinals are starting anew at quarterback after the retirement of Kurt Warner, and will be without a number of defensive contributors from their back-to-back division title teams as well. Perhaps a new start was in order anyway after HC ken Whisenhunt’s team allowed 90 points in two playoff games last January. The Rams hopefully hit rock bottom last year and will be on their way back up. With six wins in the last three years combined I don’t think things can get much worse. Getting better in division play is a must for them (8-22 ATS L5 seasons). St. Louis could be led by this April’s first overall draft pick, QB Sam Bradford. His early development will have a lot to do with how much ground this team can make up in 2010. Oddsmakers seem a bit leery of Arizona at this point, installing the Cardinals as just 3-1/2 point favorites. St. Louis will be look to get off to a better start than recent years, 1-10 ATS in the L3 September’s.
DALLAS (-3/-125, 43) at WASHINGTON
Donovan McNabb’s first season with Washington gets off to a potentially very interesting start when he and the Redskins host Dallas on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Of course, McNabb isn’t the only new face in town, as HC Mike Shanahan arrives after taking the year off from football following a great run with Denver. The Redskins were just 4-12 last season and failed to even win a single divisional game. They will be fired up to be taking on what it believed to be a Super Bowl favorite in Dallas. The Cowboys were finally able to get over the playoff drought that had stricken the franchise for 15 years, as they beat Philly in a wildcard game last January. The so-called monkey may be off Tony Romo’s back. Not only do these teams not like one another, but the fact that McNabb moved from a team that was an equal rival to Dallas makes this contest very intriguing. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS run in this head-to-head series.
Monday, September 13
BALTIMORE at NY JETS (-3/-105, 37½)
The first of two Monday Night Football games on ESPN is an absolute dandy, as two of the expected favorites in the AFC go head-to-head. The Jets and Ravens both made noise in the playoffs last season, and each had made some noteworthy moves to take the next step this winter. On offense, the Ravens added wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Not to be outdone, the Jets traded for WR Santonio Holmes and picked up RB Ladanian Tomlinson. Not only that, but two of the league’s best defensive units will take the field. History shows that 58% of Week 1 games have gone UNDER the total over the last decade. This one certainly has the potential. Judging by the numbers, oddsmakers place these teams on equal levels, with only the 3-points for home field advantage separating them. The Jets are playing their first game in their New Meadowlands home.
SAN DIEGO (-6, 45) at KANSAS CITY
The nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader, and the game that wraps up the Week 1 slate pits San Diego versus Kansas City in an AFC West Division duel at Arrowhead Stadium. San Diego is going for its fifth straight divisional title this season and is an overwhelming favorite to do so. The Chargers have much bigger goals though, and they concern the postseason, where success has been harder to come by. Of course, it might help for Norv Turner’s team to get off to a better start than it has recently, as they were 2-3 after five games in each of the past three seasons. Kansas City hasn’t beaten San Diego since October ’07, a span of five games, and would like nothing more than to make a huge statement in front of a national audience. The Chiefs are expected to be improved after a 3-year run of winning just 10 games combined. Charlie Weis has joined HC Todd Haley’s staff to run the offense while Romeo Crennel takes the reigns of the defense. While it may be tough to stomach taking K.C. here as the 6-point dog, note that when the difference in the teams’ PPG Margin from the prior year is 10.0 or greater, the team with the worse differential owns an 19-12 ATS (61%) record in Week 1 since 2001.
Thursday, September 9
MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (-4, 52)
The season kicks off as usual on Thursday night, September 9th, with the defending Super Bowl Champions hosting the contest. This time around, it’s a rematch of the NFC Championship game between the Vikings and Saints. New Orleans won that thriller back in January in overtime, 31-28, en route to a first ever Super Bowl title. These teams were the top two teams in the NFL last year in points scored and thus the lofty total of 52 is well justified, although it is 1-1/2 points below last year’s title game total. The pointspread is identical. Of course so much of what happens in this game comes down to whether or not Brett Favre returns under center for Minnesota. Some notes to consider about this contest…the defending Super Bowl champ has opened at home the follow-up season the last six years. In those games, that host is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh field goal win over Tennessee the only pointspread blemish. The last three games have gone UNDER the total.
Sunday, September 12
CAROLINA at NY GIANTS (-7, 40)
Carolina visited the Giants two days after Christmas last season and humiliated them, winning 41-9 as an 8-point underdog. The Panthers were directed by Matt Moore at quarterback for that and four other contests down the stretch when they went 4-1. He is expected to be the starter in 2010 but the Carolina defense will be minus Julius Peppers. In this contest, the Panthers open as TD underdogs to a Giants team that is expected to be better, especially on defense, if for no other reason than they can’t much worse. New York yielded 40 points in five different games during their 3-8 skid down the stretch. A trend to note here, home favorites of -6 to -9.5 own an impressive 26-6 SU & 19-13 ATS (59%) in the opening week of the NFL season this decade. However, the ******* Power Ratings indicate Carolina should be a 3-point favorite. This will be the first ever regular season game at the Giants New Meadowlands home.
MIAMI (-3/-115, 38) at BUFFALO
Miami made a big offseason acquisition to obtain wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Broncos to improve a pass offense that gained just 5.23 yards per attempt last season, 23rd in the NFL. The Dolphins will be visiting a Buffalo team that from all intents and purposes seems to be in rebuilding mode. Miami is a 3-point road favorite and has gone 10-2 ATS on the road vs. conference foes over the last two seasons. The Bills ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yardage last season but hope that Chan Gailey, their new Head Coach, can engineer a turnaround. The trend to consider in this game is that all divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
ATLANTA (-1, 40) at PITTSBURGH
The first game in the suspension being served by Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger brings the Falcons to Pittsburgh, and it’s quite evident that oddsmakers have put huge stock in his absence, as Atlanta is the 1-point road favorite. Both teams were 9-7 a year ago, and Pittsburgh boasts the way stronger defense, thus the pointspread still seems like a potential overreaction. Still, the following trend would suggest the Falcons are the correct side to back: Road Favorites in NFL Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 13-8 ATS (62%) run. One other thing to consider, Atlanta was one of the best poinstpread-covering teams in the NFL in 2010, going 11-5 ATS, while Pittsburgh was one of the worst, 5-10-1 ATS. Expect either Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich to step in for Roethlisberger to start the season.
DETROIT at CHICAGO (-6½, 42½)
Considering that Detroit has only won two games over the last two seasons, and Chicago comes off a 7-9 campaign, the first in the Jay Cutler era, it’s unusual to see more optimism surrounding the Lions’ franchise. However, an offseason of encouraging young acquisitions along with the expected continued growth of Matt Stafford at quarterback has Lions fans thinking bigger in 2010. Chicago meanwhile, didn’t have a first or second round pick in April’s draft, and has put many of its eggs in two baskets, that of Cutler, and this past offseason prized acquisition, DE Julius Peppers. Realistically still, Detroit was 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 in division play a year ago and probably further away than people are giving credit for, at least out of the gate. Chicago won its final two games of 2009, both SU & ATS but will be fighting a trend that finds road underdogs of 3-1/2 points or more in divisional games of NFL’s opening week at 7-21 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) since 2000.
CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND (-6, 44)
The two losers of the wildcard round playoffs games in the AFC last January meet to open the 2010 season. There is a general line of thinking that the Patriots’ home playoff loss to the Ravens is signaling the end of the decade-long dominant regime, but there are enough other believers that as long as Tom Brady is under center and Bill Belichick is at the controls, that New England will be just fine. Oddsmakers seem to be cautiously leaning towards the latter, installing the Pats as 6-point favorites to a defending playoff team. Keep in mind that the Baltimore game was New England’s only home loss of the 2009 season. Cincinnati was also ousted at home in the postseason, by the Jets, but was stellar as an underdog, 7-2 ATS. Here is a trend concerning a possible play on the total of 44…When two Winning Teams from the prior year have played in Week 1, UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since ’03.
CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY (-2, 36)
Two of the league’s struggling franchises go head-to-head in Week 1, and the good news for one of them is that they’ll start 2010 off with a victory. If you consider the close to the 2009 season as an indicator, that team will likely be Cleveland, who won its last four games outright, and its last seven ATS. The Browns will be starting anew with Jake Delhomme at quarterback and Mike Holmgren as the new boss of football happenings. Tampa Bay played reasonably well down the stretch but not at the level of the Browns. They will be favored for the first time since the ’08 season, laying 2-points in this game. On that note, home favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-4 SU & ATS (71%) since 2001.
DENVER at JACKSONVILLE (-1½, 41)
Denver and Jacksonville combined to go just 2-8 in December last season, with each fading out of the AFC wildcard picture. One of them will at least get off to a good start for this fall. Head coach Josh McDaniels’ team is without its primary weapon of the last few years, WR Brandon Marshall. The Jaguars don’t have a plethora of offensive weapons to speak of overall. In that sense, perhaps the total is the way to go here. If you are looking at taking a side, consider Jack Del Rio’s team’s recent plight as the chalk…JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 5*)
INDIANAPOLIS (-3/-115, 47) at HOUSTON
Houston has its sights set on a first playoff berth in franchise history. The Texans seem to be right on the cusp of reaching that goal. However, unless something drastic changes this year, it would have to be as a wildcard, as the Colts remain the primary obstacle in winning the AFC South Division. Perhaps a win in the home opener can give HC gary Kubiak’s team the confidence and momentum it needs to become a contender. The Texans can score, and they come off a season in which they led the NFL in passing yardage. The Colts though do nearly everything well and as long as Peyton Manning is at quarterback, will always have a chance of winning the division. Indianapolis has won six straight games over the Texans and was 7-1 ATS on the road in the 2009 regular season. Keep an eye on this trend…All favorites of exactly 3-points boast a 29-10 SU & 21-12-5 ATS (64%) mark in Week 1 since 2000.
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (-7, 41)
Optimism reigns in both Oakland and Tennessee heading into the 2010 season. The Raiders, for once, had an offseason that is being widely regarded by the so-called experts. The biggest move they made was to trade for former Washington QB Jason Campbell, who always boasted decent numbers but could never get over the hump of being an elite quarterback. He has a decent running game behind him with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Speaking of good running games, the Titans have the best one in the NFL, with 2000+ yard rusher Chris Johnson. Assuming nothing negative comes out of his contract squabble, he’ll be back minus crutch Lendale White for 2010. Tennessee turned a 0-6 start into an 8-8 finish last season. Because they didn’t make the postseason, there is still work to be done. Oakland has covered five of the last six games between these teams and is actually 12-6 ATS on the road versus conference foes since 2006.
GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA (PK, 46)
Two of the perennial powers of the NFC over the last decade will get together in what should be a huge barometer for where each stands heading into 2010. On paper, Green Bay looks as good as anyone, with MVP-candidate Aaron Rodgers emerging into one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Games aren’t played on paper though, and the Packers will be looking to snap a 6-game losing skid in the City of Brotherly Love (1-5 ATS). Fortunately, the Pack has been very good on the road under Mike McCarthy, going 22-10 ATS. Philadelphia enters its first season in a long time without Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, or Brian Dawkins as the team leaders. McNabb has been replaced by Kevin Kolb, who Eagles management hopes will develop similarly to the way Rodgers did when he replaced Brett Favre. He has perhaps the most dynamic set of skill position players in the league at his disposal. Oddsmakers don’t know quite what to make of Philly at this point, setting this line up as a pick em’.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2, 38) at SEATTLE
Most NFL experts believe that there will be a changing of the guard in the NFC West after two years of Arizona rule. The two most likely beneficiaries are the 49ers and Seahawks. San Francisco is the odds-on-favorite to win the division in 2010, coming off a season in which it went 8-8 but lost six games by a touchdown or less. HC Mike Singletary’s club was 9-4 ATS and among the league leaders defensively in several key categories. Their success will hinge upon the performance of #1 pick Alex Smith at quarterback, who may finally be ready to take over the club as the bonafide leader. Seattle is set at quarterback with Matt Hasselbeck, but he is aging and may not have all that much left in the tank. Off a 5-11 season, new head coach Pete Carroll has transformed the roster to his liking. How it does out of the gate is a big concern though. With San Francisco playing as a 2-point road favorite, recall the trend from earlier, divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
ARIZONA (-3½, 41) at ST. LOUIS
The NFC West Division is in head-to-head mode on Week 1, and the Rams have a chance to make a huge statement against an Arizona team that could be in a transitional year. The Cardinals are starting anew at quarterback after the retirement of Kurt Warner, and will be without a number of defensive contributors from their back-to-back division title teams as well. Perhaps a new start was in order anyway after HC ken Whisenhunt’s team allowed 90 points in two playoff games last January. The Rams hopefully hit rock bottom last year and will be on their way back up. With six wins in the last three years combined I don’t think things can get much worse. Getting better in division play is a must for them (8-22 ATS L5 seasons). St. Louis could be led by this April’s first overall draft pick, QB Sam Bradford. His early development will have a lot to do with how much ground this team can make up in 2010. Oddsmakers seem a bit leery of Arizona at this point, installing the Cardinals as just 3-1/2 point favorites. St. Louis will be look to get off to a better start than recent years, 1-10 ATS in the L3 September’s.
DALLAS (-3/-125, 43) at WASHINGTON
Donovan McNabb’s first season with Washington gets off to a potentially very interesting start when he and the Redskins host Dallas on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Of course, McNabb isn’t the only new face in town, as HC Mike Shanahan arrives after taking the year off from football following a great run with Denver. The Redskins were just 4-12 last season and failed to even win a single divisional game. They will be fired up to be taking on what it believed to be a Super Bowl favorite in Dallas. The Cowboys were finally able to get over the playoff drought that had stricken the franchise for 15 years, as they beat Philly in a wildcard game last January. The so-called monkey may be off Tony Romo’s back. Not only do these teams not like one another, but the fact that McNabb moved from a team that was an equal rival to Dallas makes this contest very intriguing. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS run in this head-to-head series.
Monday, September 13
BALTIMORE at NY JETS (-3/-105, 37½)
The first of two Monday Night Football games on ESPN is an absolute dandy, as two of the expected favorites in the AFC go head-to-head. The Jets and Ravens both made noise in the playoffs last season, and each had made some noteworthy moves to take the next step this winter. On offense, the Ravens added wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Not to be outdone, the Jets traded for WR Santonio Holmes and picked up RB Ladanian Tomlinson. Not only that, but two of the league’s best defensive units will take the field. History shows that 58% of Week 1 games have gone UNDER the total over the last decade. This one certainly has the potential. Judging by the numbers, oddsmakers place these teams on equal levels, with only the 3-points for home field advantage separating them. The Jets are playing their first game in their New Meadowlands home.
SAN DIEGO (-6, 45) at KANSAS CITY
The nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader, and the game that wraps up the Week 1 slate pits San Diego versus Kansas City in an AFC West Division duel at Arrowhead Stadium. San Diego is going for its fifth straight divisional title this season and is an overwhelming favorite to do so. The Chargers have much bigger goals though, and they concern the postseason, where success has been harder to come by. Of course, it might help for Norv Turner’s team to get off to a better start than it has recently, as they were 2-3 after five games in each of the past three seasons. Kansas City hasn’t beaten San Diego since October ’07, a span of five games, and would like nothing more than to make a huge statement in front of a national audience. The Chiefs are expected to be improved after a 3-year run of winning just 10 games combined. Charlie Weis has joined HC Todd Haley’s staff to run the offense while Romeo Crennel takes the reigns of the defense. While it may be tough to stomach taking K.C. here as the 6-point dog, note that when the difference in the teams’ PPG Margin from the prior year is 10.0 or greater, the team with the worse differential owns an 19-12 ATS (61%) record in Week 1 since 2001.
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