Public is on fire right now

[NoCashMcgraff]

Over the course of the last 2 weeks the public has been on absolute fire..it is pretty sickening for people like myself who typically play the other side..

Look for this to turn around in a MAJOR way come conference tourny time..It is my opinion that if you typically side w the general public now is the time to start pressing your action. Once the conference tourny begins you should probably tone it done.

For those of you like myself, it is incredibly tough, but I am seriously considering taking a mini break (i know it isnt long) until conference tournys begin (the major ones that is) and then start pressing the action..and it should carry through march madness..

I just cant believe how brutal it has been lately

[BettorsChat]

What makes you think the public has been on fire?

[ChitownZ]

My name is John Q. and I have been getting my ass kicked for the last week !

[diesel]

I have a question and maybe someone can answer this for me. Can someone explain to me if playing against the public on every single game no matter the matchup is actually a betting philosophy that someone uses that will actually end up ahead at the end of the year.

[NoCashMcgraff]

What makes you think the public has been on fire?

I don't want to throw Greek under the bus and I dont want it to appear as if I am because I am not. Greek and I both have the same wagering style. I am also certain he would agree w me if he were to read this thread but just for arguments sake, we all know Greek fades the public for the most part. If you take a look at his card just for tonight he lost all of his 20*s and had a pretty bad night overall.

I know this is just 1 day and I claimed it has been a 2 weeks but I do not have factual evidence for the other days as I do for today. As I stated, I am sure Greek will agree w me if he sees this thread. Again, this thread has NOTHING to do w Greek and I do not want this to appear as if it does. You asked me why I think the public is on fire and to make it easy to explain, I am using Greeks plays because we all know he fades the public.

All in all I am positive the ship will right itself come conference tourny time and the big tourny.

I am going to even apologize for using Greek in this thread ahead of time because it probably wasn't right of me to use his plays as an example but it was about all I could think of.

[bryce]

Just my two cents---fading the public doesn't always win...being a square doesn't mean you always lose...gambling IMO is very trendy and goes in cycles...I for one love playing home dogs getting points in hoops and Football--regardless of Pro or college...I try to be a one track mind type of bettor...I have ripped off 15 straight wins but in the same respect ripped off 15 losses...it is a choice to be square one night and a Fade the public type of guy the next---either way you won't get rich either way..to say SQUAReS lose all the time or fading the public all the time makes you a winner is ridiculous..I mean seriously does the oddmakers set this up as if to say all these squares will be on this SIDE if we make this line THIS??? DOn't you think that after all these years people catch on and say---uh WAIT a minute it is time to go against Joe Public and then all of us fade the public bettors WIN..Odd makers are good---know there business but are not infallible---we could go round and round all day long about this but to think we have a blind public eye when we refer to squares is dead wrong... I have been betting for 20+ years...have faded---have been joe public...been there done that etc..you have to be versatile---know when to fade---be square...lay off---it isn't that ez is it...Greek gets beat up---the public gets beat up---again all comes down to any given day...that is why money management is so key to this whole thing---you can can live off of FADING the public...or for that matter being a favorite square bettor..Personally I try to stay away from the favorite and over type plays--I think oddsmakers guard against that play the most...JMO guys!

[BigWeiner]

Just my two cents---fading the public doesn't always win...being a square doesn't mean you always lose...gambling IMO is very trendy and goes in cycles...I for one love playing home dogs getting points in hoops and Football--regardless of Pro or college...I try to be a one track mind type of bettor...I have ripped off 15 straight wins but in the same respect ripped off 15 losses...it is a choice to be square one night and a Fade the public type of guy the next---either way you won't get rich either way..to say SQUAReS lose all the time or fading the public all the time makes you a winner is ridiculous..I mean seriously does the oddmakers set this up as if to say all these squares will be on this SIDE if we make this line THIS??? DOn't you think that after all these years people catch on and say---uh WAIT a minute it is time to go against Joe Public and then all of us fade the public bettors WIN..Odd makers are good---know there business but are not infallible---we could go round and round all day long about this but to think we have a blind public eye when we refer to squares is dead wrong... I have been betting for 20+ years...have faded---have been joe public...been there done that etc..you have to be versatile---know when to fade---be square...lay off---it isn't that ez is it...Greek gets beat up---the public gets beat up---again all comes down to any given day...that is why money management is so key to this whole thing---you can can live off of FADING the public...or for that matter being a favorite square bettor..Personally I try to stay away from the favorite and over type plays--I think oddsmakers guard against that play the most...JMO guys!

I agree 100%, it should be used as tool that's it.

[KazDog]

I don't think linesmakers take into consideration sharps or squares when setting a line. I think for the most part, they base their lines on statistical information. I believe it's why lines are so far off at the beginning of the season for an individual sport because they haven't had a chance to compile enough statistical information on a particular team. Lines tighten up a lot as the season goes on and the stats become more accurate or averaged.

I also think that gives an advantage during March Madness as it's a little harder to project an accurate line during that time as teams from different conferences face off.

Just my 2 cents...

KAZ

[mavskidd02]

I have a question and maybe someone can answer this for me. Can someone explain to me if playing against the public on every single game no matter the matchup is actually a betting philosophy that someone uses that will actually end up ahead at the end of the year.

No, you still need to handicap. The public does not lose every game, and fading them will not win every game. For the most part the public is the public and all that means is they hit 50%. If they hit 50%, fading them will get you the same number.

It is true, that the public loses money. But, that's due to VIG and poor BR management (see Brandon Lang). By that same token I don't think fading the public will make you any money as much as it will cost you vig. It's not as easy as looking at the percentages and picking the one with the smaller number. You have to handicap, no matter what.

I'm not a square, I'm not a sharp, so take that for what it's worth.

[grandmama]

i hate to break everyones bubble, but we are the public. I realized this a few months back, and I've been doing a lot better. who do we think we are? just because we handicap a few hours a day and go to this posting forum-which I love, means that we are somehow privy to loads of information that we're not? We are the public.

[BOBBY5ACES]

all hail bettorschat forum

[Spark]

Just my two cents---fading the public doesn't always win...being a square doesn't mean you always lose...gambling IMO is very trendy and goes in cycles...I for one love playing home dogs getting points in hoops and Football--regardless of Pro or college...I try to be a one track mind type of bettor...I have ripped off 15 straight wins but in the same respect ripped off 15 losses...it is a choice to be square one night and a Fade the public type of guy the next---either way you won't get rich either way..to say SQUAReS lose all the time or fading the public all the time makes you a winner is ridiculous..I mean seriously does the oddmakers set this up as if to say all these squares will be on this SIDE if we make this line THIS??? DOn't you think that after all these years people catch on and say---uh WAIT a minute it is time to go against Joe Public and then all of us fade the public bettors WIN..Odd makers are good---know there business but are not infallible---we could go round and round all day long about this but to think we have a blind public eye when we refer to squares is dead wrong... I have been betting for 20+ years...have faded---have been joe public...been there done that etc..you have to be versatile---know when to fade---be square...lay off---it isn't that ez is it...Greek gets beat up---the public gets beat up---again all comes down to any given day...that is why money management is so key to this whole thing---you can can live off of FADING the public...or for that matter being a favorite square bettor..Personally I try to stay away from the favorite and over type plays--I think oddsmakers guard against that play the most...JMO guys!

I agree with this post ... You can not just go against public, line movement, etc .... But I always try to be on the side of the book ... every night I ask my book who he needs ,, If he says he needs a play that I am giving him I feel more comfortable with it .. I will help him many times by giving him action on sides he needs .. if he says he needs ND, valpo and illinois big tonight I will say ok give me all 3 for $$$ ... unless I am on the other side ... trust me when I say it works out well for me ...

[vols fan]

all hail bettorschat forum

Short and sweet Bobby5.Thats how you should keep it

[Spark]

Short and sweet Bobby5.Thats how you should keep it

Sweet and Bobby in the same sentence does not look right vols ... 99% of his posts are vulgar and full of hate ...