Tweet
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
Submitted by nick on Thu, 2010-01-21 02:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
We're down to the Final Four in pro football, with the NFC and AFC Championship games scheduled for this Sunday.
It's been a mixed performance for sharps so far this postseason. Generally, if underdogs are doing well, sharps are doing well. That meant success in the first week, when underdogs Arizona, Baltimore, and the NY Jets all won their games outright (don't forget that many sharps loved Dallas that first week two in their blowout of Philly). But, last week was a headache for many because underdogs got waxed until the weekend's final game.
Arizona started well, but faded quickly in their blowout loss to New Orleans. Guys who had been finding success with the Cardinals finally hit a wall. There are also many old-school guys who play Under any total in the 50's they see. This game went over 57-58 even when it limped to a 45-14 finish. There are some sharps who "bet the bye" because histories used to rule this particular weekend. They did well.
Baltimore was outclassed by favored Indianapolis Saturday Night. Most sharps liked the defensive dog here, particularly against a Colts team that has a poor history after byes. They knew they were in trouble early because Baltimore was getting such shaky quarterback play. Only guys betting the bye won here. Under money cashed easily though, which helped soften the blow for many sharps.
Dallas was a popular sharp play because the Cowboys had been on such a roll. I told you a lot of guys loved the Cowboys to go the distance because of their recent form. That talk stopped by halftime. A lot of the guys who had been standing tall during the Philadelphia blowout were suddenly nowhere to be seen. A lot of posturing in Nevada during the football playoffs!
The NY Jets/San Diego game got very interesting. You probably heard that a well known high roller named Billy Walters was supposedly betting the favored Chargers hand over fist. He had provided a head fake earlier in the week on the Jets to bring the line down to -7. Over the weekend, he came back over the top big on San Diego. That line just kept going higher and higher because of his money, and all the bandwagon bettors who wanted to ride the steam. Sharps who liked dogs gladly took the extra points. Once the score was in the books, the richest guy in sports betting had taken a big loss, but many other dog and Under loving sharps had easy winners.
For the weekend:
Favorites went 3-1 ATS (with easy covers)
Unders went 3-1 ATS (with easy covers)
What do the sharps think about this weekend's conference championship games? Let's take a look...
NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts have been getting early money, with an opener of Indy -7 being bet up to -7½ and -8. Some of that is position-taking to set up a teaser play. Just remember that San Diego KILLED a lot of teasers last week! I can't tell you how many Dallas/San Diego teasers were bet by smart players last week...only to see neither team cover the more favorable line. I do expect some Jets money to come in over the weekend. This is one of those games where favorite money comes in at the low opener...while dog money waits until the last second to see how many points they can get. So, ONLY the Indy money has hit the board so far.
The total has been bet Under, opening at 41 before dropping to 39½ as I write this. Both of these teams played Unders last week, landing on 23 and 31. The Jets played to a 38 in their playoff opener at Cincinnati. When these teams played late in the regular season, it was 15-10 in the third quarter when the starters were pulled...but the Jets TD was on a kickoff return. So, it was more like a 15-3 game. A lot of Under indicators needless to say. The math guys and the system guys liked Under anything at 40 or more. The total seems "bet out" now, so it may not drop further unless there's injury news. Weather won't be an issue with Indy's retractable roof.
They bye teams earned respect last week with strong showings triggered by fresh legs on both sides of the ball. I expect that to minimize the normal dog passion we see from sharps. Indy is still fresh as can be. The Jets are running on emotions right now given their recent challenges. Wildcard teams running on emotions HAVE reached the Super Bowl...so a Colts victory is far from a done deal.
For now, I'd say the Under is a clear sharp play. We'll have to see what happens on game day in terms of underdog money before determining what the sharp team side is. Last week's game day buzz showed the danger of drawing firm midweek conclusions.
MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line here opened New Orleans -4½, and has been bet down to -3½. It's interesting that we didn't see a move all the way down to a field goal. If you liked Minnesota, why would you stop betting at +3½? I think what's happened here is that sportsbooks know they'll get flooded with money on New Orleans -3 if they drop any further. There will be middle shooters from the early position-takers. And, the public tends to like cheap home favorites in big TV games. Should the public break form and bet Brett Favre as an underdog, this line will definitely drop further. If they back the Saints, that would set up a tug-of-war between squares (the public) on the cheap home favorite, and sharps on the quality road underdog getting more than a field goal.
The total has dropped from 54 down to 52½ You know old school guys like taking the Unders at high lights. Given last week's scores, there's an assumption that defense and running the clock are going to make it tough to fly by this number. We've only had one wild and crazy shootout so far (Arizona/Green Bay). The media was suggesting before the playoffs began that we'd be seeing mostly that type of game. Instead, it's mostly been defense and ball control. You'd think the media would hire some sharps to teach them a little about playoff football!
Maybe we'll find out that there's another high roller head fake in play, and that big money will come over the top on New Orleans at -3. For now, I think the dog and Under are probably the sharp plays. That's a safe assessment about most any betting game in all of sports.
Submitted by nick on Thu, 2010-01-21 02:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
We're down to the Final Four in pro football, with the NFC and AFC Championship games scheduled for this Sunday.
It's been a mixed performance for sharps so far this postseason. Generally, if underdogs are doing well, sharps are doing well. That meant success in the first week, when underdogs Arizona, Baltimore, and the NY Jets all won their games outright (don't forget that many sharps loved Dallas that first week two in their blowout of Philly). But, last week was a headache for many because underdogs got waxed until the weekend's final game.
Arizona started well, but faded quickly in their blowout loss to New Orleans. Guys who had been finding success with the Cardinals finally hit a wall. There are also many old-school guys who play Under any total in the 50's they see. This game went over 57-58 even when it limped to a 45-14 finish. There are some sharps who "bet the bye" because histories used to rule this particular weekend. They did well.
Baltimore was outclassed by favored Indianapolis Saturday Night. Most sharps liked the defensive dog here, particularly against a Colts team that has a poor history after byes. They knew they were in trouble early because Baltimore was getting such shaky quarterback play. Only guys betting the bye won here. Under money cashed easily though, which helped soften the blow for many sharps.
Dallas was a popular sharp play because the Cowboys had been on such a roll. I told you a lot of guys loved the Cowboys to go the distance because of their recent form. That talk stopped by halftime. A lot of the guys who had been standing tall during the Philadelphia blowout were suddenly nowhere to be seen. A lot of posturing in Nevada during the football playoffs!
The NY Jets/San Diego game got very interesting. You probably heard that a well known high roller named Billy Walters was supposedly betting the favored Chargers hand over fist. He had provided a head fake earlier in the week on the Jets to bring the line down to -7. Over the weekend, he came back over the top big on San Diego. That line just kept going higher and higher because of his money, and all the bandwagon bettors who wanted to ride the steam. Sharps who liked dogs gladly took the extra points. Once the score was in the books, the richest guy in sports betting had taken a big loss, but many other dog and Under loving sharps had easy winners.
For the weekend:
Favorites went 3-1 ATS (with easy covers)
Unders went 3-1 ATS (with easy covers)
What do the sharps think about this weekend's conference championship games? Let's take a look...
NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts have been getting early money, with an opener of Indy -7 being bet up to -7½ and -8. Some of that is position-taking to set up a teaser play. Just remember that San Diego KILLED a lot of teasers last week! I can't tell you how many Dallas/San Diego teasers were bet by smart players last week...only to see neither team cover the more favorable line. I do expect some Jets money to come in over the weekend. This is one of those games where favorite money comes in at the low opener...while dog money waits until the last second to see how many points they can get. So, ONLY the Indy money has hit the board so far.
The total has been bet Under, opening at 41 before dropping to 39½ as I write this. Both of these teams played Unders last week, landing on 23 and 31. The Jets played to a 38 in their playoff opener at Cincinnati. When these teams played late in the regular season, it was 15-10 in the third quarter when the starters were pulled...but the Jets TD was on a kickoff return. So, it was more like a 15-3 game. A lot of Under indicators needless to say. The math guys and the system guys liked Under anything at 40 or more. The total seems "bet out" now, so it may not drop further unless there's injury news. Weather won't be an issue with Indy's retractable roof.
They bye teams earned respect last week with strong showings triggered by fresh legs on both sides of the ball. I expect that to minimize the normal dog passion we see from sharps. Indy is still fresh as can be. The Jets are running on emotions right now given their recent challenges. Wildcard teams running on emotions HAVE reached the Super Bowl...so a Colts victory is far from a done deal.
For now, I'd say the Under is a clear sharp play. We'll have to see what happens on game day in terms of underdog money before determining what the sharp team side is. Last week's game day buzz showed the danger of drawing firm midweek conclusions.
MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line here opened New Orleans -4½, and has been bet down to -3½. It's interesting that we didn't see a move all the way down to a field goal. If you liked Minnesota, why would you stop betting at +3½? I think what's happened here is that sportsbooks know they'll get flooded with money on New Orleans -3 if they drop any further. There will be middle shooters from the early position-takers. And, the public tends to like cheap home favorites in big TV games. Should the public break form and bet Brett Favre as an underdog, this line will definitely drop further. If they back the Saints, that would set up a tug-of-war between squares (the public) on the cheap home favorite, and sharps on the quality road underdog getting more than a field goal.
The total has dropped from 54 down to 52½ You know old school guys like taking the Unders at high lights. Given last week's scores, there's an assumption that defense and running the clock are going to make it tough to fly by this number. We've only had one wild and crazy shootout so far (Arizona/Green Bay). The media was suggesting before the playoffs began that we'd be seeing mostly that type of game. Instead, it's mostly been defense and ball control. You'd think the media would hire some sharps to teach them a little about playoff football!
Maybe we'll find out that there's another high roller head fake in play, and that big money will come over the top on New Orleans at -3. For now, I think the dog and Under are probably the sharp plays. That's a safe assessment about most any betting game in all of sports.
Comment