What would you do

[larryonion]

Not sure if I am posting in the right place. But I have an interesting (I think) question.

Tonight, one of the number sets I use thought that there was a 64% change Charlotte would cover the 2.5 spread. The same set of numbers suggested that Charlotte had a 73% chance to cover the money line. The money line was priced at 135 while the point spread was priced at 110.

So, on a $100 bet, you were buying 2.5 points for 25 bucks. In basketball, where the standard point unit is 2 points, would you take the ML with a 73% chance, or the points with a 64% chance.

I'll get into the assumption you only pay the juice when you win in another post....

Anyone interested in sharing their thoughts on this? For the record, I took the points...

[poskid]

According to my math the expected Return On Investment (ROI) is 11.6% for the points and 15.5% for the ML. According to this you should have taken the ML. Since you are playing the favorite the varience calculations should be in favor of playing the ML as well. Supposedly you gave up ~4% ROI and gave yourself a likely higher standard of deviation by taking the points over playing the ML.

PK

[mavskidd02]

Also to be noted, is that I am fairly certain a 2.5 point in the NBA is worth more than 25 cents. So to get it at that is a steal. PK's got the math down, however.