Tweet
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK 16 IN THE NFL
Time once again to see what the sharps are thinking about the week's NFL action. We have one game Friday this week (Christmas Night), then everything else is Sunday and Monday. Games are presented in rotation order for your convenience.
FRIDAY
SAN DIEGO AT TENNESSEE: The line opened at Tennessee at -2.5, and jumped to -3 because Tennessee is seen as needing the game more. Also, sportsbooks afraid of teasers plays would rather have the number sitting on 3 than 2.5. Though, it should be pointed out that a lot of the 'basic strategy' teaser guys are coming off bad weeks. Eight point favorites New Orleans and Minnesota lost their games outright. Some guys used Washington this past Monday Night and got spanked as well. Not much happening with the total. Weather on game day could change that.
SUNDAY
SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: There was early interest on Green Bay at -13.5, but that may have been from guys taking a position near the critical number. The line moved only to -14 and not beyond. Sharps are hoping the line goes up higher because Green Bay needs to win in its battle for a Wildcard spot. Seattle's been so bad on the road this year that sharps might not step in too aggressively if the line does make it to 14.5 or 15. The early position takers are looking to have something riding on the middle. The total has dropped a half a point from 42 to 41.5. I think that's just guys anticipating weather rather than a sharp move. If weather is going to be an issue, the number will come down further.
OAKLAND AT CLEVELAND: Not much interest yet. This is actually an interesting game to handicap. Both teams were abysmal earlier this season, but have been playing better lately. Oakland just upset Denver on the road last week. Cleveland did the same at Kansas City as a much smaller dog. I think sharps would take the three either way if there's a line move (taking the dog at +3.5, the favorite at -2.5). Hard to love either side given their full season performances though. Can you trust Cleveland as a favorite? Do you want a California team with nothing at stake playing in Ohio in late December? Sharps hit Over 37.5 early to take the line to 38 (a key number on totals). Weather could cause that line to fall.
KANSAS CITY AT CINCINNATI: Very little interest in this game so far, even from position takers. The line is sitting at -13.5 as I write this. Cincinnati is not a blowout team lately, struggling even to win straight up against some poor opposition. Kansas City hasn't played well for awhile. Hard to like them in a lame duck spot. This may be one of the least bet games of the day. The public isn't interested. Only a line move from public action would get the sharps involved. If weather is an issue this week, Under will be a play out of respect for Cincinnati's defense and their tendency to sit on leads when they get them.
BUFFALO AT ATLANTA: Atlanta got hit pretty hard at the opener of -7. It's up to -9 now. That's a reflection of quarterback news with the Bills, and the fact that sportsbooks just don't want to see any lines in the 7.5 to 8.5 range! Nine is the new 7.5! Any sort of support for a TD favorite will see that line shoot way up because basic strategy teaser guys will REALLY like the favorite at -1.5 or -2 in teasers if they like them at -7 for the game. No action on the total at all.
HOUSTON AT MIAMI: We're seeing Miami -3, and it's going to take a lot of money to move off the number. Typically, in evenly matched games that matter to both teams, the favorite by three is a very common final score. You saw that with Miami/Tennessee last week, which sat on three for awhile before getting support on the favorite. The game ultimately landed on three in overtime. Any move to 2.5 or 3.5 in this game will most likely see support come in on the other side. If it doesn't, well, you'll know who the sharps like! The total dropped from 46 to 45.
CAROLINA AT NY GIANTS: Nothing has happened in this one yet. The Giants are -7 and 41.5 as we go to press. Carolina is getting respect because of its play since the QB change. The Giants need the game very badly though...meaning public money on New York. My best guess here is that the sharps like Carolina, and are waiting to see if they can get +7.5 or better on game day. If they can't, they'll settle for the field goal. Carolina just covered against New England and Minnesota the last two weeks. They've shown they can be competitive vs. quality.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: The Saints opened at -16, and the line came right down to -14. Oddsmakers keep pricing New Orleans like they're New England of two years ago, but the Saints can live up to those expectations. Sharps have noticed, and have done well taking dogs against New Orleans lately. They stepped in here at the outset because they couldn't see the public driving the line up to -17. The public's been burned enough with the Saints. The total dropped a tick from 50 down to 49.5.
JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ENGLAND: Not much interest here yet. This is another quality dog from the South visiting a favorite of about a TD from the North...just like Carolina/NY Giants. The difference here is that Jacksonville is still in the playoff picture and has a lot of motivation. Also, they have extra rest and preparation time since they played last Thursday against Indianapolis. I get the same feel here that I had in the other one. Sharps want the dog, and are hoping the public will give them extra value before kickoff. Note that some places are posting New England -9 to avoid teaser play. I think a lot of sharps will be rooting for New England -2 in teasers, and Jacksonville plus whatever they can get on the team side. They'd tell you both are +EV.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: Early support for Pittsburgh -2, as sharps were impressed with the comeback for Pittsburgh in the final minutes last week. We're seeing -3 most everywhere now. That's also a line where fear of teasers pushed some places off the two at the outset. They don't want anyone rooting for Baltimore +8 in teasers because three and seven are such common final margins. I do know a lot of sharps who think Baltimore is the better team. They'll take +3 or better on game day. We had our first really big totals jump of the week here. An opener of 39 went up to 42. Given how Pittsburgh has been playing at home lately (no defense, a lot of passing), a number like 39 was a very poor opener. Maybe weather or turnovers will bail out the oddsmakers. How could anyone watch Pittsburgh beat Green Bay 37-36 then post a 39 for the whole game against Baltimore?
DENVER AT PHILADELPHIA: Denver's getting a lot of support here, which is a little surprising since they couldn't beat Oakland as a 14-point favorite last week! The opener of -8 fell to -7. I've even seen a 6.5 out there. I hate to keep repeating this, but we have a lot of openers in the teaser window. That opener of 8 wasn't going to be available at the places who are afraid of teasers. They would either go up to 9, or down to 7. It was clear early on that support would be for the dog from sharps, so the line came down. Not much interest on the total yet.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: No interest here. We have another favorite near two TD's that hasn't been playing all that great lately. Arizona looked awful at San Francisco two weeks ago, then barely got by lowly Detroit last week at this same high spread. The public won't lay points with a sluggish favorite...and they sure won't bet the dog. Sharps will hope to get more than two TD's. They might come in on the dog before kickoff at +14 just because so many have had success over the years with double digit underdogs. Note that Dallas, Detroit, St. Louis, Oakland, and Carolina all covered as dogs of +8 or better last week. Only Baltimore was able to cover a tall spread...and that was against the imploding Chicago Bears. Dogs have had a hot several weeks, they'll continue to get sharp support.
DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO: Minimal early support at -11.5 for San Francisco, as we see a line now of -12 everywhere. Hard to say that was position-taking because we're not near a 10 or a 14. I think some guys liked the matchup of San Francisco's turnover-forcing defense against the questionable quarterback situation in Detroit. The total has dropped a point from 42 down to 41 at most places.
NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS: A lot of support for the NY Jets and the Under. Sharps figure Indianapolis won't be playing their starters the whole way because they've clinched home field through the playoffs. Indy is in trouble at the backup QB position because Jim Sorgi is out with an injury. The Jets defense just abuses bad QB's. Sharps are hoping the Colts are more worried about staying healthy than they are about going 16-0 in the regular season. The team side line dropped from Jets +7 to Jets +5. The total dropped from 42.5 to 40.5. That's a lot of money hitting one game!
DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: Dallas moved from -6 up to -6.5 off the horrible Monday Night performance from the Redskins. I think that was position-taking though in hopes that the public would take the line to -7 and beyond. Sharps are skeptical a team with the talent of the Redskins would play two horrible home games in a row in the division. I'd expect to see support on the TV home underdog at +7 or better. Actually, a lot of really big name sharps LOVED Washington +3 last week against the Giants. They're less afraid to come back to the well after a big loss than the public is.
MONDAY
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: We're seeing lines in the range of Minnesota -7 to -7.5 here. Stores afraid of teasers will keep it at -7. The Vikings have looked so bad in their last two road games (at Carolina and Arizona, also on prime time TV), that the public may not be very motivated to get involved. Who's going to bet on the Bears as bad as they've been playing? Sportsbooks want action in a big Monday Night game, so they might get creative and take a stand on one team. Sharps will play this one by ear on Monday, knowing they can always pass if they don't see an edge.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK 16 IN THE NFL
Time once again to see what the sharps are thinking about the week's NFL action. We have one game Friday this week (Christmas Night), then everything else is Sunday and Monday. Games are presented in rotation order for your convenience.
FRIDAY
SAN DIEGO AT TENNESSEE: The line opened at Tennessee at -2.5, and jumped to -3 because Tennessee is seen as needing the game more. Also, sportsbooks afraid of teasers plays would rather have the number sitting on 3 than 2.5. Though, it should be pointed out that a lot of the 'basic strategy' teaser guys are coming off bad weeks. Eight point favorites New Orleans and Minnesota lost their games outright. Some guys used Washington this past Monday Night and got spanked as well. Not much happening with the total. Weather on game day could change that.
SUNDAY
SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: There was early interest on Green Bay at -13.5, but that may have been from guys taking a position near the critical number. The line moved only to -14 and not beyond. Sharps are hoping the line goes up higher because Green Bay needs to win in its battle for a Wildcard spot. Seattle's been so bad on the road this year that sharps might not step in too aggressively if the line does make it to 14.5 or 15. The early position takers are looking to have something riding on the middle. The total has dropped a half a point from 42 to 41.5. I think that's just guys anticipating weather rather than a sharp move. If weather is going to be an issue, the number will come down further.
OAKLAND AT CLEVELAND: Not much interest yet. This is actually an interesting game to handicap. Both teams were abysmal earlier this season, but have been playing better lately. Oakland just upset Denver on the road last week. Cleveland did the same at Kansas City as a much smaller dog. I think sharps would take the three either way if there's a line move (taking the dog at +3.5, the favorite at -2.5). Hard to love either side given their full season performances though. Can you trust Cleveland as a favorite? Do you want a California team with nothing at stake playing in Ohio in late December? Sharps hit Over 37.5 early to take the line to 38 (a key number on totals). Weather could cause that line to fall.
KANSAS CITY AT CINCINNATI: Very little interest in this game so far, even from position takers. The line is sitting at -13.5 as I write this. Cincinnati is not a blowout team lately, struggling even to win straight up against some poor opposition. Kansas City hasn't played well for awhile. Hard to like them in a lame duck spot. This may be one of the least bet games of the day. The public isn't interested. Only a line move from public action would get the sharps involved. If weather is an issue this week, Under will be a play out of respect for Cincinnati's defense and their tendency to sit on leads when they get them.
BUFFALO AT ATLANTA: Atlanta got hit pretty hard at the opener of -7. It's up to -9 now. That's a reflection of quarterback news with the Bills, and the fact that sportsbooks just don't want to see any lines in the 7.5 to 8.5 range! Nine is the new 7.5! Any sort of support for a TD favorite will see that line shoot way up because basic strategy teaser guys will REALLY like the favorite at -1.5 or -2 in teasers if they like them at -7 for the game. No action on the total at all.
HOUSTON AT MIAMI: We're seeing Miami -3, and it's going to take a lot of money to move off the number. Typically, in evenly matched games that matter to both teams, the favorite by three is a very common final score. You saw that with Miami/Tennessee last week, which sat on three for awhile before getting support on the favorite. The game ultimately landed on three in overtime. Any move to 2.5 or 3.5 in this game will most likely see support come in on the other side. If it doesn't, well, you'll know who the sharps like! The total dropped from 46 to 45.
CAROLINA AT NY GIANTS: Nothing has happened in this one yet. The Giants are -7 and 41.5 as we go to press. Carolina is getting respect because of its play since the QB change. The Giants need the game very badly though...meaning public money on New York. My best guess here is that the sharps like Carolina, and are waiting to see if they can get +7.5 or better on game day. If they can't, they'll settle for the field goal. Carolina just covered against New England and Minnesota the last two weeks. They've shown they can be competitive vs. quality.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: The Saints opened at -16, and the line came right down to -14. Oddsmakers keep pricing New Orleans like they're New England of two years ago, but the Saints can live up to those expectations. Sharps have noticed, and have done well taking dogs against New Orleans lately. They stepped in here at the outset because they couldn't see the public driving the line up to -17. The public's been burned enough with the Saints. The total dropped a tick from 50 down to 49.5.
JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ENGLAND: Not much interest here yet. This is another quality dog from the South visiting a favorite of about a TD from the North...just like Carolina/NY Giants. The difference here is that Jacksonville is still in the playoff picture and has a lot of motivation. Also, they have extra rest and preparation time since they played last Thursday against Indianapolis. I get the same feel here that I had in the other one. Sharps want the dog, and are hoping the public will give them extra value before kickoff. Note that some places are posting New England -9 to avoid teaser play. I think a lot of sharps will be rooting for New England -2 in teasers, and Jacksonville plus whatever they can get on the team side. They'd tell you both are +EV.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: Early support for Pittsburgh -2, as sharps were impressed with the comeback for Pittsburgh in the final minutes last week. We're seeing -3 most everywhere now. That's also a line where fear of teasers pushed some places off the two at the outset. They don't want anyone rooting for Baltimore +8 in teasers because three and seven are such common final margins. I do know a lot of sharps who think Baltimore is the better team. They'll take +3 or better on game day. We had our first really big totals jump of the week here. An opener of 39 went up to 42. Given how Pittsburgh has been playing at home lately (no defense, a lot of passing), a number like 39 was a very poor opener. Maybe weather or turnovers will bail out the oddsmakers. How could anyone watch Pittsburgh beat Green Bay 37-36 then post a 39 for the whole game against Baltimore?
DENVER AT PHILADELPHIA: Denver's getting a lot of support here, which is a little surprising since they couldn't beat Oakland as a 14-point favorite last week! The opener of -8 fell to -7. I've even seen a 6.5 out there. I hate to keep repeating this, but we have a lot of openers in the teaser window. That opener of 8 wasn't going to be available at the places who are afraid of teasers. They would either go up to 9, or down to 7. It was clear early on that support would be for the dog from sharps, so the line came down. Not much interest on the total yet.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: No interest here. We have another favorite near two TD's that hasn't been playing all that great lately. Arizona looked awful at San Francisco two weeks ago, then barely got by lowly Detroit last week at this same high spread. The public won't lay points with a sluggish favorite...and they sure won't bet the dog. Sharps will hope to get more than two TD's. They might come in on the dog before kickoff at +14 just because so many have had success over the years with double digit underdogs. Note that Dallas, Detroit, St. Louis, Oakland, and Carolina all covered as dogs of +8 or better last week. Only Baltimore was able to cover a tall spread...and that was against the imploding Chicago Bears. Dogs have had a hot several weeks, they'll continue to get sharp support.
DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO: Minimal early support at -11.5 for San Francisco, as we see a line now of -12 everywhere. Hard to say that was position-taking because we're not near a 10 or a 14. I think some guys liked the matchup of San Francisco's turnover-forcing defense against the questionable quarterback situation in Detroit. The total has dropped a point from 42 down to 41 at most places.
NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS: A lot of support for the NY Jets and the Under. Sharps figure Indianapolis won't be playing their starters the whole way because they've clinched home field through the playoffs. Indy is in trouble at the backup QB position because Jim Sorgi is out with an injury. The Jets defense just abuses bad QB's. Sharps are hoping the Colts are more worried about staying healthy than they are about going 16-0 in the regular season. The team side line dropped from Jets +7 to Jets +5. The total dropped from 42.5 to 40.5. That's a lot of money hitting one game!
DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: Dallas moved from -6 up to -6.5 off the horrible Monday Night performance from the Redskins. I think that was position-taking though in hopes that the public would take the line to -7 and beyond. Sharps are skeptical a team with the talent of the Redskins would play two horrible home games in a row in the division. I'd expect to see support on the TV home underdog at +7 or better. Actually, a lot of really big name sharps LOVED Washington +3 last week against the Giants. They're less afraid to come back to the well after a big loss than the public is.
MONDAY
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: We're seeing lines in the range of Minnesota -7 to -7.5 here. Stores afraid of teasers will keep it at -7. The Vikings have looked so bad in their last two road games (at Carolina and Arizona, also on prime time TV), that the public may not be very motivated to get involved. Who's going to bet on the Bears as bad as they've been playing? Sportsbooks want action in a big Monday Night game, so they might get creative and take a stand on one team. Sharps will play this one by ear on Monday, knowing they can always pass if they don't see an edge.