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NFL total bias: Betting over gets very simple
By DAVE CAREY
Chicks dig the long ball and this NFL season, bettors can dig the over.
The over has a slight advantage against the under this fall, going 74-68 overall.
Last week, we saw offenses break free and light up the score boards at a staggering pace. The over went a solid 9-6 last week, making bettors who wagered on high-scoring games searching for a common thread to build on the success this week.
Don’t worry – I found it.
Games featuring both quarterbacks passing for at least 175 yards went 9-2 over/under, while games featuring just one or none, all fell below the number. And these aren’t always easy to predict.
Ben Roethlisberger fell just short, passing for 174 yards, but the stat held true, as the Steelers’ field-goal fest against the Bengals failed to even come close to the total.
And don’t even ask about Alex Smith, Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell. Yeesh.
It sounds simple, but the best way to pick a game to go over the total is to select a pair of teams that are both capable of lighting up the scoreboard. And last week, games that featured a pair of teams with at least mediocre passing games were able to score enough to push the number over the total.
So who can we count on to chuck the pigskin around this weekend? Let’s take a closer look at our passing matchups.
The Colts-Ravens game seems poised for a points explosion. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has passed for at least 175 yards in each game this season prior to last week against the Browns, and Indianapolis depends on the arm of quarterback Peyton Manning to win games.
The Eagles-Bears game also should feature more scoring then a frat house hosting a freshman mixer. Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb averages 240 yards per game and Jay Cutler might be a turnover machine, but he still throws for more than 260 yards per game.
And what game should you stay away from? How about Cincinnati at Oakland.
The Bengals proved last week that they are willing to win ugly. Very ugly. And Oakland claims to run passing plays, but it seems more like the team throws up jump balls and hopes for the best. Also, again with the JaMarcus Russell factor. He's so bad, Bruce Gradkowski is getting loose right now.
So this week, look for the passing game to lead to points, and the over to lead to cash in your wallet.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 44)
The Colts have scored at least 24 points in three of their past four meetings against the vaunted Ravens defense, including lighting the unit up for 31 in an early-season meeting last year.
The difference this time is that the Ravens offense is poised to put more points up on the board. Joe Flacco is becoming an elite passer and Ray Rice is a fantastic receiver out of the backfield and a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the ball.
The Colts have scored at least 20 points seven times this year and will continue to do the same this week. The only difference is that this time, the Ravens should keep up.
Pick: Over
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 41.5)
The 49ers try to win every game in grind-it-out fashion and don’t care about style points. The team has also had great success shutting down high-powered passing attacks such as the Colts and Cardinals, holding both potent aerial games to fewer than 20 points.
The only problem? First name Alex, last name Smith. San Francisco’s offense is woeful and after what the Packers did to a vastly superior offense against the Cowboys last week, do you really think that the 49ers can do a whole lot better?
Green Bay will have to work for their points, but not much the 49ers do will enable them to reach the endzone and push the score over the total.
Pick: Under
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-6.5, 46)
Both these teams love scoring this season, going a combined 11-6-1 over/under this year.
And with Falcons running back Michael Turner injuring his knee last week, expect Atlanta to put the ball in the air even more than normal to try to put points on the board. He should find success against a beleaguered Giants defense that has allowed at least 20 points in four straight games – all loses.
Expect Eli Manning and receiver Steve Smith to keep clicking, moving the Giants up and down the field and finding the goal line.
Look for the ball to be in the arm and points to be on the board.
Pick: Over
By DAVE CAREY
Chicks dig the long ball and this NFL season, bettors can dig the over.
The over has a slight advantage against the under this fall, going 74-68 overall.
Last week, we saw offenses break free and light up the score boards at a staggering pace. The over went a solid 9-6 last week, making bettors who wagered on high-scoring games searching for a common thread to build on the success this week.
Don’t worry – I found it.
Games featuring both quarterbacks passing for at least 175 yards went 9-2 over/under, while games featuring just one or none, all fell below the number. And these aren’t always easy to predict.
Ben Roethlisberger fell just short, passing for 174 yards, but the stat held true, as the Steelers’ field-goal fest against the Bengals failed to even come close to the total.
And don’t even ask about Alex Smith, Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell. Yeesh.
It sounds simple, but the best way to pick a game to go over the total is to select a pair of teams that are both capable of lighting up the scoreboard. And last week, games that featured a pair of teams with at least mediocre passing games were able to score enough to push the number over the total.
So who can we count on to chuck the pigskin around this weekend? Let’s take a closer look at our passing matchups.
The Colts-Ravens game seems poised for a points explosion. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has passed for at least 175 yards in each game this season prior to last week against the Browns, and Indianapolis depends on the arm of quarterback Peyton Manning to win games.
The Eagles-Bears game also should feature more scoring then a frat house hosting a freshman mixer. Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb averages 240 yards per game and Jay Cutler might be a turnover machine, but he still throws for more than 260 yards per game.
And what game should you stay away from? How about Cincinnati at Oakland.
The Bengals proved last week that they are willing to win ugly. Very ugly. And Oakland claims to run passing plays, but it seems more like the team throws up jump balls and hopes for the best. Also, again with the JaMarcus Russell factor. He's so bad, Bruce Gradkowski is getting loose right now.
So this week, look for the passing game to lead to points, and the over to lead to cash in your wallet.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 44)
The Colts have scored at least 24 points in three of their past four meetings against the vaunted Ravens defense, including lighting the unit up for 31 in an early-season meeting last year.
The difference this time is that the Ravens offense is poised to put more points up on the board. Joe Flacco is becoming an elite passer and Ray Rice is a fantastic receiver out of the backfield and a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the ball.
The Colts have scored at least 20 points seven times this year and will continue to do the same this week. The only difference is that this time, the Ravens should keep up.
Pick: Over
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 41.5)
The 49ers try to win every game in grind-it-out fashion and don’t care about style points. The team has also had great success shutting down high-powered passing attacks such as the Colts and Cardinals, holding both potent aerial games to fewer than 20 points.
The only problem? First name Alex, last name Smith. San Francisco’s offense is woeful and after what the Packers did to a vastly superior offense against the Cowboys last week, do you really think that the 49ers can do a whole lot better?
Green Bay will have to work for their points, but not much the 49ers do will enable them to reach the endzone and push the score over the total.
Pick: Under
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-6.5, 46)
Both these teams love scoring this season, going a combined 11-6-1 over/under this year.
And with Falcons running back Michael Turner injuring his knee last week, expect Atlanta to put the ball in the air even more than normal to try to put points on the board. He should find success against a beleaguered Giants defense that has allowed at least 20 points in four straight games – all loses.
Expect Eli Manning and receiver Steve Smith to keep clicking, moving the Giants up and down the field and finding the goal line.
Look for the ball to be in the arm and points to be on the board.
Pick: Over