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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING
ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL
We've reached Week 11 already in the NFL. It seems like just a few weeks ago that we were desperately waiting for the start of the season to finally arrive. Sportsbooks and sharps are coming off a couple of very big weeks in pro football. Whenever underdogs are covering, the squares (the general public) is losing, and Nevada is winning.
Sharps are back in the swing of things and aggressively betting underdogs once again. You regulars know many will wait until kickoff to get the best possible line. So, you have to read the early betting action very carefully to get a true sense of what's going on. Let's take our shot at that again this week. Games are presented for your convenience in rotation order.
Here's what the sharps are thinking about this week's games in the NFL...
MIAMI AT CAROLINA: This is the Thursday Night game this week. If you're not reading this until after Thursday, skip ahead to the next game! The totals guys got involved here pretty aggressively at the opener of 45. Under betting has driven the number all the way down to 42.5. Many are expecting this game to have a playoff feel to it because both teams are 4-5 but still in the Wildcard race. Totals guys tend to bet Unders in playoff style football. Nothing's happened on the team side. It will take a lot of money to move a TV game off the three. We saw that last Sunday Night with New England very late, and the steam won. You should probably respect any last second steam you see here too.
CLEVELAND AT DETROIT: Moving to Sunday, the opener of Detroit by 4.5 has come down to 3.5. It's hard to believe that Cleveland's horrible play Monday Night inspired much betting! What's happening here is that nobody believes Detroit should be favored by that much over anybody. The Lions are still a very bad team. Many sharps believe these teams are equally helpless and want the points. They don't see the public coming in on Detroit on Sunday in non-marquee game like this that will hardly be televised anywhere. Might as well get the Browns early before other sharps step in and take the value away. The total has dropped from 39 to 38 because Cleveland has been playing Unders with a decent defense but no offense.
BUFFALO AT JACKSONVILLE: There was an early line move from Jacksonville -8 up to Jacksonville -9. I think that was a defensive move from sportsbooks though who didn't want to deal with teaser bets. If the line is -8, then everyone takes the Jaguars down to -2 in two-team teasers. With Buffalo changing coaches this week, that's a very appealing play for sharps. Maybe some money came in on the Jags when it was announced that Dick Jauron was fired. Sharps would much prefer Jacksonville -2 in teasers to Jacksonville -8 straight up though. Sportsbooks have gotten very cagey about dodging those basic strategy teasers when they don't like the situation. The total is up a half a point from 42 to 42.5, probably on the feeling that Buffalo's offense will score more with Jauron out of the way.
PITTSBURGH AT KANSAS CITY: Early support for Pittsburgh here at the opener of -9.5. I'm seeing -10 or -10.5 out there. Generally that's sharps taking an early position on the favorite because they know the public will come in big on the favorite over the weekend. They want to set up a middle around a key number like -10. If the sharps like the dog at a game day line of +11 or better, they'll come back over the top for more than their initial position (that's the preferred strategy with a play like this). Sharps tend not to lay high lines on the road, particularly when dogs are covering like they have been lately. That early Pittsburgh money was a bit of a head fake in terms of knowing who the sharps really like. It's the smart way to play around key numbers.
INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE: There hasn't been much betting interest yet. Sharps are still trying to get a read for how the public will bet the Colts this week. Traditional handicapping would suggest Baltimore as the side because Indy will be drained and in a letdown spot from that big comeback. Key numbers aren't involved right now though. And, the public tends to bet 'hot' teams rather than 'letdowns.' I believe sharps are waiting to see what they might get with the Ravens. No reason to act early...so this hasn't been a heavily bet game. I think it will be come Sunday because of all the TV attention.
ATLANTA AT NY GIANTS: The Giants got a lot of early support as an opener of -5.5 shot up to -6.5. Favorites off a bye have a good recent history, and many sharps are betting that blind on the openers. They can always come back on the dog if the line moves too much. And, I would expect to see some middle takers on Atlanta if we see a +7. Note that the Giants really need a win badly here, while Atlanta has struggled on the road vs. good teams all season. Sharps may just accept that early position on NYG and let it ride as a result. There would be some buyback from some guys at +7 or better just because of the math involved. The total is down a half a point from 46.5 to 46.
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Green Bay also shot up from -5.5 to -6.5, though they're not a favorite off a bye week. The Packers finally looked good vs. a good team last week vs. Dallas (boy the squares were surprised by THAT result...Dallas was supposed to kill Green Bay according to every square I talked to). San Francisco's offense is in big trouble of late. Sharps figured Green Bay would get support this week, and took early position beneath the key number of 7 to set up middle potential. Sharps have generally liked the bye favorites enough to keep their positions, but have been more prone to buy back for middles otherwise. San Francisco's defense will get a lot of support should this line move up to Green Bay -7. The totals guys are watching closely, because they'll LOVE an Under if weather arrives to help these defenses. We've seen a drop from 43.5 down to 42 already and it's midweek as I write this.
SEATTLE AT MINNESOTA: Only interest so far here has been on the total, which dropped from 48 down to 46.5. Minnesota played to just a 37 vs. Detroit last week. Many expect a replay because Seattle isn't positioned well for a big effort after a divisional loss to Arizona last week. Minnesota just wants to win and get the game finished. So, support for the Under so far...no interest on either team yet. The big dogs have been covering enough that I'd expect game day support from many old-school guys on Seattle. Though, Seattle was one of the few dogs not to cover last week.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: Early support for the big dog Washington at the opener of +12.5. It's already down to +10.5 or +11 in most places. Normally sharps will wait for Dallas money to come in if they like the underdog so they can maximize their position. As we've seen already today and a lot this year, they would actually bet DALLAS early at -12.5 figuring the public would drive the line to 13.5 or 14. Well, that DIDN'T happen here...which suggests that sharps felt that 12.5 was already way too high and they didn't want other sharps to step in and take it away from them. Squares lost a lot of money with Dallas last week anyway, and might not wan to lay such a high spread. A unique case here where sharps didn't want to give anything away to other sharps, and took what they could get early with a big dog that has a strong defense.
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Something similar has happened here, with an opener of New Orleans -12.5 coming down to -11.5. New Orleans has stopped covering spreads, so sharps figured the squares might be done betting them. If you want the big home dog, and the public isn't going to help you over the weekend, you might as well take what you can get now. There's more respect for Washington than Tampa Bay right now because sharps like defense, and TB's defense has struggled. They have been winning by betting against the Saints though...so this is a big dog they wanted. Note how position-taking on favorites gets very aggressive when favorites are winning, but less-so after the public has lost so much money that they can't drive the line up with game day action.
ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest yet in this game. The line is sitting around Arizona -9, and the sportsbooks just don't want to drop it into the teaser window. Sharps will probably take a shot at the home dog on game day, particularly if the public drives the line any higher. That may not be likely given Arizona's inconsistency and the lack of TV interest in this game. Mostly a dead spot on the board given the other options.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Not much action yet here, though I expect that to change closer to kickoff. We have a New York team involved, and one of the most high profile teams in the league playing at home. I think people are afraid to bet the Colts and Patriots games right now because they don't know how the teams are going to respond to the finish. It's like an earthquake hit, and everyone's waiting for the ground to stop shaking. With a line of New England by 10.5, the most likely scenario is that the sharps will take the dog at whatever they can get. They're hoping for +11 or better thanks to square money on the Patriots on game day. It may not come in though, so +10.5 might be the best they can get. Sharps like big dogs, divisional dogs, and big divisional dogs!
CINCINNATI AT OAKLAND: A little interest on the Over, as the total moved up from 35 to 36. The totals guys have noticed that a defensive war like the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh game is often followed by a letdown. Sharps are looking to bet the Raiders but are hoping to see +10 before they get involved. And, it's the RAIDERS, so they won't be too aggressive knowing the caliber of quarterback they're dealing with. This is a situational spot that usually gets sharps attention though...going against a big favorite in a letdown spot that's playing outside of its time one. Sharps will take the Raiders here, they're just hoping for a better line on game day.
SAN DIEGO AT DENVER: As we go to press Nevada hasn't been interested in posting a number until the status of Kyle Orton is confirmed. There's a big drop off from him to backup Chris Simms, as you saw in the second half of the Washington game last week. There's no betting line yet. Sharps generally prefer divisional underdogs, which may come into play once a line does go up.
PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: This game nudged from Philly -2.5 up to Philly -3 fairly quickly. That could have been more defense against teasers, because a 2.5 is begging teaser guys to take Chicago up to +8.5. Given Philly's inconsistent play of late, that would be a popular choice (especially if weather becomes a factor). There is generally more affection for Philly though amongst sharps, as Donovan McNabb is seen as much better than Jay Cutler now. So, possibly some position-taking there as well near the critical number. If you like Philly, you definitely want to lay less than a field goal. If you want to set up a middle, you take Philly early and Chicago late. If you like Chicago, there's no reason to bet early so you might as well wait to see what you can get. There's just no way, all things considered, that this line was going to stay at 2.5! The total has dropped from 45.5 to 45, but would come down much further with any forecast for defensive weather.
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON: Early support for Houston here as the opener of -3.5 has moved up to -4.5 and -5. I was a bit surprised because sharps generally don't trust Houston as a favorite. The Texans have been holding their own of late though...so maybe this is real support. It's not like position taking is important in this range...and it's unlikely the public would drive Houston all the way up to -7. I'd have to say that we have some good evidence here that some sharps at least really like Houston. Given the early action though, the guys who liked Tennessee were bound to wait to see what they could get by kickoff. Only the Houston money has spoken in the markets so far. We'll see Tennessee money have it's input closer to kickoff.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING
ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL
We've reached Week 11 already in the NFL. It seems like just a few weeks ago that we were desperately waiting for the start of the season to finally arrive. Sportsbooks and sharps are coming off a couple of very big weeks in pro football. Whenever underdogs are covering, the squares (the general public) is losing, and Nevada is winning.
Sharps are back in the swing of things and aggressively betting underdogs once again. You regulars know many will wait until kickoff to get the best possible line. So, you have to read the early betting action very carefully to get a true sense of what's going on. Let's take our shot at that again this week. Games are presented for your convenience in rotation order.
Here's what the sharps are thinking about this week's games in the NFL...
MIAMI AT CAROLINA: This is the Thursday Night game this week. If you're not reading this until after Thursday, skip ahead to the next game! The totals guys got involved here pretty aggressively at the opener of 45. Under betting has driven the number all the way down to 42.5. Many are expecting this game to have a playoff feel to it because both teams are 4-5 but still in the Wildcard race. Totals guys tend to bet Unders in playoff style football. Nothing's happened on the team side. It will take a lot of money to move a TV game off the three. We saw that last Sunday Night with New England very late, and the steam won. You should probably respect any last second steam you see here too.
CLEVELAND AT DETROIT: Moving to Sunday, the opener of Detroit by 4.5 has come down to 3.5. It's hard to believe that Cleveland's horrible play Monday Night inspired much betting! What's happening here is that nobody believes Detroit should be favored by that much over anybody. The Lions are still a very bad team. Many sharps believe these teams are equally helpless and want the points. They don't see the public coming in on Detroit on Sunday in non-marquee game like this that will hardly be televised anywhere. Might as well get the Browns early before other sharps step in and take the value away. The total has dropped from 39 to 38 because Cleveland has been playing Unders with a decent defense but no offense.
BUFFALO AT JACKSONVILLE: There was an early line move from Jacksonville -8 up to Jacksonville -9. I think that was a defensive move from sportsbooks though who didn't want to deal with teaser bets. If the line is -8, then everyone takes the Jaguars down to -2 in two-team teasers. With Buffalo changing coaches this week, that's a very appealing play for sharps. Maybe some money came in on the Jags when it was announced that Dick Jauron was fired. Sharps would much prefer Jacksonville -2 in teasers to Jacksonville -8 straight up though. Sportsbooks have gotten very cagey about dodging those basic strategy teasers when they don't like the situation. The total is up a half a point from 42 to 42.5, probably on the feeling that Buffalo's offense will score more with Jauron out of the way.
PITTSBURGH AT KANSAS CITY: Early support for Pittsburgh here at the opener of -9.5. I'm seeing -10 or -10.5 out there. Generally that's sharps taking an early position on the favorite because they know the public will come in big on the favorite over the weekend. They want to set up a middle around a key number like -10. If the sharps like the dog at a game day line of +11 or better, they'll come back over the top for more than their initial position (that's the preferred strategy with a play like this). Sharps tend not to lay high lines on the road, particularly when dogs are covering like they have been lately. That early Pittsburgh money was a bit of a head fake in terms of knowing who the sharps really like. It's the smart way to play around key numbers.
INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE: There hasn't been much betting interest yet. Sharps are still trying to get a read for how the public will bet the Colts this week. Traditional handicapping would suggest Baltimore as the side because Indy will be drained and in a letdown spot from that big comeback. Key numbers aren't involved right now though. And, the public tends to bet 'hot' teams rather than 'letdowns.' I believe sharps are waiting to see what they might get with the Ravens. No reason to act early...so this hasn't been a heavily bet game. I think it will be come Sunday because of all the TV attention.
ATLANTA AT NY GIANTS: The Giants got a lot of early support as an opener of -5.5 shot up to -6.5. Favorites off a bye have a good recent history, and many sharps are betting that blind on the openers. They can always come back on the dog if the line moves too much. And, I would expect to see some middle takers on Atlanta if we see a +7. Note that the Giants really need a win badly here, while Atlanta has struggled on the road vs. good teams all season. Sharps may just accept that early position on NYG and let it ride as a result. There would be some buyback from some guys at +7 or better just because of the math involved. The total is down a half a point from 46.5 to 46.
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Green Bay also shot up from -5.5 to -6.5, though they're not a favorite off a bye week. The Packers finally looked good vs. a good team last week vs. Dallas (boy the squares were surprised by THAT result...Dallas was supposed to kill Green Bay according to every square I talked to). San Francisco's offense is in big trouble of late. Sharps figured Green Bay would get support this week, and took early position beneath the key number of 7 to set up middle potential. Sharps have generally liked the bye favorites enough to keep their positions, but have been more prone to buy back for middles otherwise. San Francisco's defense will get a lot of support should this line move up to Green Bay -7. The totals guys are watching closely, because they'll LOVE an Under if weather arrives to help these defenses. We've seen a drop from 43.5 down to 42 already and it's midweek as I write this.
SEATTLE AT MINNESOTA: Only interest so far here has been on the total, which dropped from 48 down to 46.5. Minnesota played to just a 37 vs. Detroit last week. Many expect a replay because Seattle isn't positioned well for a big effort after a divisional loss to Arizona last week. Minnesota just wants to win and get the game finished. So, support for the Under so far...no interest on either team yet. The big dogs have been covering enough that I'd expect game day support from many old-school guys on Seattle. Though, Seattle was one of the few dogs not to cover last week.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: Early support for the big dog Washington at the opener of +12.5. It's already down to +10.5 or +11 in most places. Normally sharps will wait for Dallas money to come in if they like the underdog so they can maximize their position. As we've seen already today and a lot this year, they would actually bet DALLAS early at -12.5 figuring the public would drive the line to 13.5 or 14. Well, that DIDN'T happen here...which suggests that sharps felt that 12.5 was already way too high and they didn't want other sharps to step in and take it away from them. Squares lost a lot of money with Dallas last week anyway, and might not wan to lay such a high spread. A unique case here where sharps didn't want to give anything away to other sharps, and took what they could get early with a big dog that has a strong defense.
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Something similar has happened here, with an opener of New Orleans -12.5 coming down to -11.5. New Orleans has stopped covering spreads, so sharps figured the squares might be done betting them. If you want the big home dog, and the public isn't going to help you over the weekend, you might as well take what you can get now. There's more respect for Washington than Tampa Bay right now because sharps like defense, and TB's defense has struggled. They have been winning by betting against the Saints though...so this is a big dog they wanted. Note how position-taking on favorites gets very aggressive when favorites are winning, but less-so after the public has lost so much money that they can't drive the line up with game day action.
ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest yet in this game. The line is sitting around Arizona -9, and the sportsbooks just don't want to drop it into the teaser window. Sharps will probably take a shot at the home dog on game day, particularly if the public drives the line any higher. That may not be likely given Arizona's inconsistency and the lack of TV interest in this game. Mostly a dead spot on the board given the other options.
NY JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Not much action yet here, though I expect that to change closer to kickoff. We have a New York team involved, and one of the most high profile teams in the league playing at home. I think people are afraid to bet the Colts and Patriots games right now because they don't know how the teams are going to respond to the finish. It's like an earthquake hit, and everyone's waiting for the ground to stop shaking. With a line of New England by 10.5, the most likely scenario is that the sharps will take the dog at whatever they can get. They're hoping for +11 or better thanks to square money on the Patriots on game day. It may not come in though, so +10.5 might be the best they can get. Sharps like big dogs, divisional dogs, and big divisional dogs!
CINCINNATI AT OAKLAND: A little interest on the Over, as the total moved up from 35 to 36. The totals guys have noticed that a defensive war like the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh game is often followed by a letdown. Sharps are looking to bet the Raiders but are hoping to see +10 before they get involved. And, it's the RAIDERS, so they won't be too aggressive knowing the caliber of quarterback they're dealing with. This is a situational spot that usually gets sharps attention though...going against a big favorite in a letdown spot that's playing outside of its time one. Sharps will take the Raiders here, they're just hoping for a better line on game day.
SAN DIEGO AT DENVER: As we go to press Nevada hasn't been interested in posting a number until the status of Kyle Orton is confirmed. There's a big drop off from him to backup Chris Simms, as you saw in the second half of the Washington game last week. There's no betting line yet. Sharps generally prefer divisional underdogs, which may come into play once a line does go up.
PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: This game nudged from Philly -2.5 up to Philly -3 fairly quickly. That could have been more defense against teasers, because a 2.5 is begging teaser guys to take Chicago up to +8.5. Given Philly's inconsistent play of late, that would be a popular choice (especially if weather becomes a factor). There is generally more affection for Philly though amongst sharps, as Donovan McNabb is seen as much better than Jay Cutler now. So, possibly some position-taking there as well near the critical number. If you like Philly, you definitely want to lay less than a field goal. If you want to set up a middle, you take Philly early and Chicago late. If you like Chicago, there's no reason to bet early so you might as well wait to see what you can get. There's just no way, all things considered, that this line was going to stay at 2.5! The total has dropped from 45.5 to 45, but would come down much further with any forecast for defensive weather.
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON: Early support for Houston here as the opener of -3.5 has moved up to -4.5 and -5. I was a bit surprised because sharps generally don't trust Houston as a favorite. The Texans have been holding their own of late though...so maybe this is real support. It's not like position taking is important in this range...and it's unlikely the public would drive Houston all the way up to -7. I'd have to say that we have some good evidence here that some sharps at least really like Houston. Given the early action though, the guys who liked Tennessee were bound to wait to see what they could get by kickoff. Only the Houston money has spoken in the markets so far. We'll see Tennessee money have it's input closer to kickoff.