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NFL Home Dogs - An Endangered Species???? - Or Maybe Just a Myth ???
The NFL regular season approaches the midway point with 103 of 256 games having been played. 2009 is unfolding as a season in which favorites, especially road favorites, are enjoying great success both straight up and ATS. Home Favorites have been virtually break even with their 34-31-1 ATS mark. But Road Favorites have made their backers plenty of money with their 21-13 record (62%) through the first 7 weeks of the 2009 season. These results have called into question the long held "belief" that the best "value" comes playing Underdogs, especially home underdogs. Yet witness how Home Underdogs have done over the years. Over the past 27 seasons Home Underdogs are 997-930-55 ATS, or 51.74%. That's below the 52.4% needed to break even laying 11 to 10! Since 1982 the best season for Home Underdogs was 1996 when they went 39-25-0 for 60.9%, a profit of 11.5 net units (2002 & 2006 were close behind). The worst was 2005 as Home Pups went 29-47-4 for just 38.2% and a whopping loss of 22.7 net units (previously 1984 had produced the poorest results). Of the past 27 seasons there have been only 8 seasons in which Home Underdogs hit at less than 50% (although there have also been 4 seasons in which Home Dogs hit above 50% but below the 'break even' point of 52.4%). There have been 15 seasons in which Home Underdogs turned a profit, but in 8 of them the profit was less than 2.0 net units for the entire season!
| Season | Record | Pct. | Net | Season | Record | Pct. | Net | |
| 1982 | 17-18-0 | 44.7% | -2.8 | 1996 | 39-25-1 | 60.9% | 11.5 | |
| 1983 | 32-29-0 | 52.5% | 0.1 | 1997 | 35-33-2 | 51.5% | - 1.3 | |
| 1984 | 33-44-0 | 42.9% | -15.4 | 1998 | 39-31-6 | 55.7% | 4.9 | |
| 1985 | 41-37-3 | 52.6% | 0.3 | 1999 | 44-33-7 | 55.1% | 7.7 | |
| 1986 | 40-36-1 | 52.6% | 0.4 | 2000 | 36-37-1 | 49.3% | - 4.7 | |
| 1987 | 28-24-0 | 53.9% | 1.6 | 2001 | 43-37-6 | 53.8% | 2.3 | |
| 1988 | 32-29-0 | 52.5% | 0.1 | 2002 | 51-36-3 | 58.6% | 11.4 | |
| 1989 | 37-35-1 | 51.4% | -1.5 | 2003 | 36-34-4 | 51.4% | - 1.4 | |
| 1990 | 32-33-2 | 49.2% | -4.3 | 2004 | 38-43-2 | 46.9% | - 9.3 | |
| 1991 | 43-34-4 | 55.8% | 5.6 | 2005 | 29-47-4 | 38.2% | -22.7 | |
| 1992 | 43-38-0 | 53.1% | 1.2 | 2006 | 47-33-1 | 58.8% | 10.7 | |
| 1993 | 38-33-3 | 53.5% | 1.7 | 2007 | 42-46-1 | 47.7% | - 8.6 | |
| 1994 | 30-29-2 | 50.9% | -1.9 | 2008 | 32-41-1 | 43.8% | -13.1 | |
| 1995 | 40-35-1 | 53.3% | 1.5 | TOTAL | 997-930-55 | 51.74% | - 26.0 |
Blindly betting Home Underdogs between 1982 and 2004 would have produced a net profit of just 7.7 units but that entire profit was more than offset by the loss in 2005 of 22.7 net units for a net loss, on a flat bet basis, of 15.0 units over more than 1,700 plays -- hardly the definition of long term success -- or success at all for that matter. 10.8 units were "recovered" in 2006 but most of that was given back in 2007 when Home Underdogs produced a net loss of 8.6 units with more given back in 2008 when Home Underdogs produced a net loss of 13.1 units. Thus there has been an overall NET LOSS of 26.0 units by blindly having bet NFL Home Underdogs over the past 26 seasons! Quite a surprise to nearly everyone. Especially when that entire net loss has occurred in just the past 4 seasons and there have been net losses betting on Home Underdogs in 5 of the past 6 seasons!
As to the "value" of Home Underdogs? It's a matter of semantics or, more accurately, a matter of relativity. Home Underdogs are the best of four "evils" in that relative to Home Favorites, Road Favorites and Road Underdogs betting on Home Underdogs has produced the lowest level of losses over more than a quarter century. So the next time you hear a handicapper or commentator extol the virtues of the Home Underdog you will be aware that the "bark" is much louder than the "bite" and that while looking for Home Underdogs is indeed a solid approach to handicapping it's not the be all and end all many have proclaimed it to be.
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