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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK SEVEN IN THE NFL
Time once again to take a look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's NFL action.
There are six teams with a bye Sunday instead of the regular four, so we have one less game to look at. The schedule is loaded with interconference games for some reason (NFC vs. AFC) this weekend, with a whopping EIGHT games presenting interesting challenges. Series history doesn't matter in games like this. And, head coaches vary greatly in how much priority they put on games outside their own division and conference.
I personally love to handicap those kinds of games because my knowledge and experience in the league put me way ahead of the market when confusion reigns amongst the squares (general public) and traditional handicappers.
As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY: Not much interest from the sharps in this one. It's very hard to lay points with a San Diego team that continues to be banged up. They also have a short preparation week off the Monday Night game. You don't get rich betting on favorites in short preparation weeks! Kansas City has been horrible this year though, so it's difficult loving them as a dog. The Chiefs were lucky to be close with Dallas on this field two weeks ago given the game stats. They're in a letdown spot off the upset win at Washington too. The number of 4½ is in a dead spot that doesn't involve key numbers or influence teasers with a move. I don't anticipate much action here unless late injury or weather news breaks. The total has come down a point from an opener of 45 to 44. Note that Monday Night's game with Denver would have landed on 36 if not for three non-offensive TD's.
INDIANAPOLIS AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest in this game either, as the line's been sitting around 13½ or 14 for the big road favorite. You can probably deduce that Colts backers like taking the 13½...but sharps will take a two-touchdown home underdog in the NFL no matter who's playing. Think about how bad Oakland looked before upsetting Philadelphia outright. History says the value is with the dog. I expect the public to take the Colts over the weekend, and the sharps to take whatever they can get at +14 or better on the Rams. Dogs did do better in the NFL last week than they had been, possibly triggering more investment against the chalk from sharps this weekend.
CHICAGO AT CINCINNATI: Cincinnati opened at -2½, but it's now down to -1½ as we go to press. That move seemed to be triggered by injury developments. Looks like we'll have a game in the teaser window, where bettors can move the dog up past +3 and +7 in two-teamers. I don't see this line going all the way down to pick because sharps are impressed with Cincinnati's effort this year...and because they don't trust Jay Cutler of the Bears on the road. The Bengals haven't earned enough respect to go up to a field goal though on the other end of the spectrum. We've seen a big move here on the total, as an opener of 44½ is all the way down to 41½. That seemed to be triggered by Chicago's Under at Atlanta, and the fact that sharps are a bit ahead of oddsmakers in remembering that Cincinnati's playing intense defense this year. Of course, we're also at the time of year where weather matters. I know some guys who invest on Unders at the opener in the cold weather cities on the chance the weather will turn bad. If it doesn't, they can always buy off their position on game day.
GREEN BAY AT CLEVELAND: This total dropped from 43½ to 41½, which is another game in Ohio dropping like a rock off the opener. So, we may have more position-taking from the weather guys. Though, Green Bay did play a low scoring game with Detroit last week...and Cleveland's offense is horrible. Remember the 6-3 game at Buffalo, and note that the 27-14 game at Pittsburgh last week had a defensive TD. It was more like a 34-point game than a 41-point game. Green Bay opened at -8 on the team side, which has been bet down to -7 at most places. Oddsmakers would prefer not to have Green Bay in the teaser window...so that line may stick at -7 even if public money hits the Packers over the weekend. The Browns have covered a few games in a row now...which is probably what inspired that initial sharp push on the dog. Normally dog players don't hit a line early. Here it was clear that waiting at +8 was only going to stick you with +7 if you waited.
MINNESOTA AT PITTSBURGH: There's been early support for Minnesota, as an opener of +5 is down to +4 for the Vikings. Pittsburgh has been awful against the spread, seemingly inventing ways not to cover every week. They blew some late leads earlier on. Last week they were dominant (about 550-200 in yardage) but allowed a kickoff return TD that spiked their cover potential. This is one of the longest Super Bowl hangovers ever! Minnesota may be tired though from playing so many big games of late. They barely got by Minnesota last week, and went down to the wire with Green Bay and San Francisco not long before that. Basically, if both teams show up the way they've been playing, this line should be more like Pittsburgh -2. Sharps took the +5, but weren't so aggressive that they brought the line down to a field goal. There is concern that the Vikings will play a tired game somewhere along the line.
NEW ENGLAND AT TAMPA BAY: There was early support for New England at -14, driving the number up to -15. This is a continuation of a strategy from two years ago...where sharps hit the Pats early knowing that the public would come in strong over the weekend. Then, on game day, they come back and shoot their middle, or come over the top even bigger on the underdog. Sharps are more confident that the squares will hit the Patriots as a big road favorite than they were about Indianapolis or Green Bay this week. The total is up 1½ points from an opener or 43½ to 45. The Patriots scored at will two years ago when things were clicking under Tom Brady. The totals guys remembered that...and they remembered how poorly the Tampa Bay defense played earlier this season. Remember all the wide open receivers Tony Romo was hitting in the season opener? I wouldn't be surprised to see this total go even higher this weekend as long as rain isn't in the forecast.
SAN FRANCISCO AT HOUSTON: Not much action here. The line is sitting right at Houston -3, which feels like the right number to most everyone. The 49ers do get respect as a dog because of their head coach...so I would expect to see sharps on the visitor before kickoff. They're hoping the public bets Houston off the big win at Cincinnati last week. No need to take +3 now when there's a shot at +3½ or better later in the week. The public doesn't generally bet dogs anyway, and they really don't like betting franchises that have losing reputations from recent seasons. My read on the lack of movement here is that it's generally a show of support for San Francisco (or sharps would have bet Houston already!), and we'll see that smart money hitting the Niners Sunday morning.
NY JETS AT OAKLAND: Early support for the Raiders at +7 has brought the line down to +6. Here's another game where sharps felt they had to act quickly rather than hoping the public drove the line higher. The Jets have looked so bad the last three games that the public probably wasn't going to lay -7 aggressively. That meant the value was with betting the Raiders right away when you could still get a full TD. Oakland played with intensity last week in their upset of Philly. That's enough to inspire sharps to trust them one more time. Mark Sanchez is falling apart at quarterback for the Jets. Turnover prone QB's shouldn't be laying a TD on the road.
BUFFALO AT CAROLINA: No line had gone up as we went to press in this game because of the injury situations hanging over the game. Sharps aren't particularly fond of either team this year the way they've been playing. Both are coming off divisional victories too, putting each in a "go against" spot in the minds of many smart bettors. I don't expect much action when this game goes on the board unless the sharps think oddsmakers have posted a bad line. That does happen sometimes, so watch for early movement once a number does go up.
NEW ORLEANS AT MIAMI: It's odd how many times we're seeing this scenario this week. A road favorite opens on or near a critical number...and the sharps come in early on the dog rather than waiting for a better line over the weekend. This suggests a few things to me. One, sharps are feeling much better about underdogs after last weekend! And, two, there are so many different groups of sharps now that they don't trust each other to wait. They're afraid somebody else will get the best line if they don't act quickly. So, sharps are hitting some of these dogs out of the game. New Orleans opened at -7 here, and dropped to -6. In prior years, I think we would have seen more market patience. The total has dropped a point from 48 to 47. The Saints played controlled games at Buffalo and vs. the NY Jets (though they kept piling on the points against the Giants last week). Miami had a week off just as they were finding a rhythm! That looks to be part of the reasoning for the sharp interest on the Under.
ATLANTA AT DALLAS: Dallas has moved from -3 to -4 off the opener, which is probably a combination of thinking the line was a tad low...and the knowledge that the public is going to come in on Dallas over the weekend. This will be the featured late afternoon TV game too, which almost always brings in favorite money. Sharps take an early position on Dallas -3. Should the line go up as high as -5 or so, they can keep their position at a great line, shoot at a middle by making a dog bet at the higher number, or come back over the top even bigger on the dog if they prefer that side at the new line. This is how sharps get rich. They get the best of it on their preferred sides. If the game lands on 4, they win everything. Over months and years, this is what allows sharps to make a living as gamblers. They hit home runs the public never hits.
ARIZONA AT NY GIANTS: Not much action yet at -7. I'm not sure how to read that given how the week has gone. Clearly, if the sharps LOVED Arizona they would have jumped in early given what we've seen in other games on key numbers. If they loved the NY Giants (rare at prices this high), they would have bet the game up...even moreso since any line movement higher creates a teaser possibility. That didn't happen. If sharps were sure squares would hit the Giants hard later in the week, they'd take position on the Giants now. I think the injury to Eli Manning's foot is leading everyone to wait and see. You don't want position on the Giants if it turns out Manning isn't going to play much. History suggests sharps will like the dog at +7 or better on game day, but will like the Giants in teasers if the line moves to 7½ and Eli is able to play near or at full strength.
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: The opener of Philly -7½ has come down to -7, fitting the theme this week that dogs are getting hit earlier than in the past. Hard to ask the Eagles to win by more than a TD this week when they just lost to the Raiders! The total has dropped a point from 38½ to 37½. Washington plays such low scoring games every week that the computer guys are going to get Unders in their games based on the math alone. It will be interesting to see how the money comes in on Monday. It's hard to love either team based on how they played last week. Some squares get excited about Monday Night Home Underdogs. Can they get excited about Washington as badly as that team's been playing? Will they lay points on the team that just lost to Oakland? It's a big TV game, so they'll be betting something!
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK SEVEN IN THE NFL
Time once again to take a look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's NFL action.
There are six teams with a bye Sunday instead of the regular four, so we have one less game to look at. The schedule is loaded with interconference games for some reason (NFC vs. AFC) this weekend, with a whopping EIGHT games presenting interesting challenges. Series history doesn't matter in games like this. And, head coaches vary greatly in how much priority they put on games outside their own division and conference.
I personally love to handicap those kinds of games because my knowledge and experience in the league put me way ahead of the market when confusion reigns amongst the squares (general public) and traditional handicappers.
As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY: Not much interest from the sharps in this one. It's very hard to lay points with a San Diego team that continues to be banged up. They also have a short preparation week off the Monday Night game. You don't get rich betting on favorites in short preparation weeks! Kansas City has been horrible this year though, so it's difficult loving them as a dog. The Chiefs were lucky to be close with Dallas on this field two weeks ago given the game stats. They're in a letdown spot off the upset win at Washington too. The number of 4½ is in a dead spot that doesn't involve key numbers or influence teasers with a move. I don't anticipate much action here unless late injury or weather news breaks. The total has come down a point from an opener of 45 to 44. Note that Monday Night's game with Denver would have landed on 36 if not for three non-offensive TD's.
INDIANAPOLIS AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest in this game either, as the line's been sitting around 13½ or 14 for the big road favorite. You can probably deduce that Colts backers like taking the 13½...but sharps will take a two-touchdown home underdog in the NFL no matter who's playing. Think about how bad Oakland looked before upsetting Philadelphia outright. History says the value is with the dog. I expect the public to take the Colts over the weekend, and the sharps to take whatever they can get at +14 or better on the Rams. Dogs did do better in the NFL last week than they had been, possibly triggering more investment against the chalk from sharps this weekend.
CHICAGO AT CINCINNATI: Cincinnati opened at -2½, but it's now down to -1½ as we go to press. That move seemed to be triggered by injury developments. Looks like we'll have a game in the teaser window, where bettors can move the dog up past +3 and +7 in two-teamers. I don't see this line going all the way down to pick because sharps are impressed with Cincinnati's effort this year...and because they don't trust Jay Cutler of the Bears on the road. The Bengals haven't earned enough respect to go up to a field goal though on the other end of the spectrum. We've seen a big move here on the total, as an opener of 44½ is all the way down to 41½. That seemed to be triggered by Chicago's Under at Atlanta, and the fact that sharps are a bit ahead of oddsmakers in remembering that Cincinnati's playing intense defense this year. Of course, we're also at the time of year where weather matters. I know some guys who invest on Unders at the opener in the cold weather cities on the chance the weather will turn bad. If it doesn't, they can always buy off their position on game day.
GREEN BAY AT CLEVELAND: This total dropped from 43½ to 41½, which is another game in Ohio dropping like a rock off the opener. So, we may have more position-taking from the weather guys. Though, Green Bay did play a low scoring game with Detroit last week...and Cleveland's offense is horrible. Remember the 6-3 game at Buffalo, and note that the 27-14 game at Pittsburgh last week had a defensive TD. It was more like a 34-point game than a 41-point game. Green Bay opened at -8 on the team side, which has been bet down to -7 at most places. Oddsmakers would prefer not to have Green Bay in the teaser window...so that line may stick at -7 even if public money hits the Packers over the weekend. The Browns have covered a few games in a row now...which is probably what inspired that initial sharp push on the dog. Normally dog players don't hit a line early. Here it was clear that waiting at +8 was only going to stick you with +7 if you waited.
MINNESOTA AT PITTSBURGH: There's been early support for Minnesota, as an opener of +5 is down to +4 for the Vikings. Pittsburgh has been awful against the spread, seemingly inventing ways not to cover every week. They blew some late leads earlier on. Last week they were dominant (about 550-200 in yardage) but allowed a kickoff return TD that spiked their cover potential. This is one of the longest Super Bowl hangovers ever! Minnesota may be tired though from playing so many big games of late. They barely got by Minnesota last week, and went down to the wire with Green Bay and San Francisco not long before that. Basically, if both teams show up the way they've been playing, this line should be more like Pittsburgh -2. Sharps took the +5, but weren't so aggressive that they brought the line down to a field goal. There is concern that the Vikings will play a tired game somewhere along the line.
NEW ENGLAND AT TAMPA BAY: There was early support for New England at -14, driving the number up to -15. This is a continuation of a strategy from two years ago...where sharps hit the Pats early knowing that the public would come in strong over the weekend. Then, on game day, they come back and shoot their middle, or come over the top even bigger on the underdog. Sharps are more confident that the squares will hit the Patriots as a big road favorite than they were about Indianapolis or Green Bay this week. The total is up 1½ points from an opener or 43½ to 45. The Patriots scored at will two years ago when things were clicking under Tom Brady. The totals guys remembered that...and they remembered how poorly the Tampa Bay defense played earlier this season. Remember all the wide open receivers Tony Romo was hitting in the season opener? I wouldn't be surprised to see this total go even higher this weekend as long as rain isn't in the forecast.
SAN FRANCISCO AT HOUSTON: Not much action here. The line is sitting right at Houston -3, which feels like the right number to most everyone. The 49ers do get respect as a dog because of their head coach...so I would expect to see sharps on the visitor before kickoff. They're hoping the public bets Houston off the big win at Cincinnati last week. No need to take +3 now when there's a shot at +3½ or better later in the week. The public doesn't generally bet dogs anyway, and they really don't like betting franchises that have losing reputations from recent seasons. My read on the lack of movement here is that it's generally a show of support for San Francisco (or sharps would have bet Houston already!), and we'll see that smart money hitting the Niners Sunday morning.
NY JETS AT OAKLAND: Early support for the Raiders at +7 has brought the line down to +6. Here's another game where sharps felt they had to act quickly rather than hoping the public drove the line higher. The Jets have looked so bad the last three games that the public probably wasn't going to lay -7 aggressively. That meant the value was with betting the Raiders right away when you could still get a full TD. Oakland played with intensity last week in their upset of Philly. That's enough to inspire sharps to trust them one more time. Mark Sanchez is falling apart at quarterback for the Jets. Turnover prone QB's shouldn't be laying a TD on the road.
BUFFALO AT CAROLINA: No line had gone up as we went to press in this game because of the injury situations hanging over the game. Sharps aren't particularly fond of either team this year the way they've been playing. Both are coming off divisional victories too, putting each in a "go against" spot in the minds of many smart bettors. I don't expect much action when this game goes on the board unless the sharps think oddsmakers have posted a bad line. That does happen sometimes, so watch for early movement once a number does go up.
NEW ORLEANS AT MIAMI: It's odd how many times we're seeing this scenario this week. A road favorite opens on or near a critical number...and the sharps come in early on the dog rather than waiting for a better line over the weekend. This suggests a few things to me. One, sharps are feeling much better about underdogs after last weekend! And, two, there are so many different groups of sharps now that they don't trust each other to wait. They're afraid somebody else will get the best line if they don't act quickly. So, sharps are hitting some of these dogs out of the game. New Orleans opened at -7 here, and dropped to -6. In prior years, I think we would have seen more market patience. The total has dropped a point from 48 to 47. The Saints played controlled games at Buffalo and vs. the NY Jets (though they kept piling on the points against the Giants last week). Miami had a week off just as they were finding a rhythm! That looks to be part of the reasoning for the sharp interest on the Under.
ATLANTA AT DALLAS: Dallas has moved from -3 to -4 off the opener, which is probably a combination of thinking the line was a tad low...and the knowledge that the public is going to come in on Dallas over the weekend. This will be the featured late afternoon TV game too, which almost always brings in favorite money. Sharps take an early position on Dallas -3. Should the line go up as high as -5 or so, they can keep their position at a great line, shoot at a middle by making a dog bet at the higher number, or come back over the top even bigger on the dog if they prefer that side at the new line. This is how sharps get rich. They get the best of it on their preferred sides. If the game lands on 4, they win everything. Over months and years, this is what allows sharps to make a living as gamblers. They hit home runs the public never hits.
ARIZONA AT NY GIANTS: Not much action yet at -7. I'm not sure how to read that given how the week has gone. Clearly, if the sharps LOVED Arizona they would have jumped in early given what we've seen in other games on key numbers. If they loved the NY Giants (rare at prices this high), they would have bet the game up...even moreso since any line movement higher creates a teaser possibility. That didn't happen. If sharps were sure squares would hit the Giants hard later in the week, they'd take position on the Giants now. I think the injury to Eli Manning's foot is leading everyone to wait and see. You don't want position on the Giants if it turns out Manning isn't going to play much. History suggests sharps will like the dog at +7 or better on game day, but will like the Giants in teasers if the line moves to 7½ and Eli is able to play near or at full strength.
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: The opener of Philly -7½ has come down to -7, fitting the theme this week that dogs are getting hit earlier than in the past. Hard to ask the Eagles to win by more than a TD this week when they just lost to the Raiders! The total has dropped a point from 38½ to 37½. Washington plays such low scoring games every week that the computer guys are going to get Unders in their games based on the math alone. It will be interesting to see how the money comes in on Monday. It's hard to love either team based on how they played last week. Some squares get excited about Monday Night Home Underdogs. Can they get excited about Washington as badly as that team's been playing? Will they lay points on the team that just lost to Oakland? It's a big TV game, so they'll be betting something!