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NFL Underdogs: Dog training and Week 5 picks
I know what you’re thinking.
“What, this guy again? Haven’t they canned his ass yet? I’d rather take the lady friend to Love Happens for a second showing than read this fool’s column again.”
Get it all out of your system now.
It’s true, I’ve gone 1-5 over the last two weeks with my NFL underdog picks. That kind of stretch calls for impeachment. But I’ve got two reasons why you should keep reading and not search block me.
Favorites have gone 21-9 against the spread the last two weeks. It’s tough picking winners when faves are covering at that rate.
Still, I’m not saying I’m faultless here. I mean I did pick the Raiders to cover last week.
I decided to seek professional help. Luckily, being an associate editor at Cover*s.com comes with a few perks. I dialed up two Covers Experts to give me some dog training lessons.
The first thing I learned is not to back the worst teams in the league. Sounds simple enough, but don’t forget I’m the schmuck who thought Oakland had a chance to cover the 9.5 points at Houston last week.
“I’m not looking for bottom feeders,” Covers Expert Ted Sevransky told me. “St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland. I’m not looking to back any of them.”
It’s probably no coincidence that two of my seven losses this season have come when I took the Bucs and the Raiders.
Fellow Covers Expert Ben Burns also advises against betting the league’s worst teams.
“If I’m betting an underdog in the NFL, I need to believe that my underdog has a real chance to win the game outright,” Burns says. “If I can’t envision the team actually pulling off the upset, then I’d rather look for another one.”
I’m sorry if this isn’t groundbreaking for anyone out there, but it’s helpful for me. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve looked at a pointspread and just said, “That’s way too big. This team has no chance of winning straight up, but it’ll cover that number no problem.”
Well now I know better. And knowing, according to G.I. Joe, is half the battle.
I also learned I haven’t been using situational handicapping methods nearly enough. Sevransky and Burns both stressed the importance of divisional games.
“I’m particularly fond of divisional home dogs,” Burns says. “No matter how bleak things are, in terms of the season, underdogs are less likely to pack it in against a divisional rival.”
Burns also likes taking a dog when a favorite is in a difficult scheduling spot. He used Cincinnati as an example. The Bengals were coming off a huge win over the Steelers in Week 3 and they had the Browns before another belter against Baltimore the following week.
The Browns covered the number and nearly won the game outright.
Teddy told me to adjust to the new season right away. What happened a year ago has nothing to do with this season. Jesus, I wish he would have told me that before I backed Tennessee for the first three weeks.
Sevranksy also told me, to be successful for the next stage of the season, I would have to spot clubs that are better than most people think they are.
“I’m specifically looking to identify teams that haven’t looked good so far, but could end up being much better.”
OK. I’ve been given expert direction. Now I’ve got to go out there and make it rain winners.
Deep breath, deep breath…
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I’m a Niners supporter but unlike some NFL fans I’m reasonable enough to know when my team is getting too much credit. San Francisco’s offense is limited. If you’re not convinced you haven’t seen this team play enough.
San Fran’s defense is good, but the unit will have a tough time matching up with all of Atlanta’s offensive weapons.
This should be a low-scoring game but Atlanta will find pay dirt more often than the 49ers, especially with Frank Gore watching from the sidelines.
Pick: Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals (+9) at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens only impressed me more with their loss to New England. They were in that game the entire way and if Mark Clayton knew how to catch a ball thrown directly into his chest, Baltimore would have left Gillette Stadium 4-0 straight up and against the spread.
The reason I like Cincy is due to the tutorial I received. This is a huge divisional matchup for the Bengals and their near loss to the Browns was a perfect wakeup call for Marvin Lewis’ boys.
It also looks like Ravens rookie tackle Michael Oher will have to play the left side and block NFL sack leader Antwan Odom Sunday. Oher played left tackle in college but he’s been on the right side since preseason.
Pick: Cincy
Houston Texans (+5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
I really wanted to take the Seahawks, but oddsmakers have turned Seattle into a short home fave now that Matt Hasselbeck is healthy enough to start. Pat yourself on the back if you grabbed Seattle at +3 earlier in the week. That’s a winning play.
Houston’s defense hasn’t been able to stop the run, but that’s not a weakness Arizona’s offense will likely be able to expose. The Cardinals are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and 60 rushing yards per game.
I’d feel a little more confident with the Texans if I knew for sure elite pass rusher Mario Williams will play Sunday. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, but coach Gary Kubiak says Williams doesn’t need to take any snaps in practice to start Sunday.
It’ll be a shootout and I see Houston scoring more than enough points to walk away from the Desert State with the win.
Pick: Texans
I know what you’re thinking.
“What, this guy again? Haven’t they canned his ass yet? I’d rather take the lady friend to Love Happens for a second showing than read this fool’s column again.”
Get it all out of your system now.
It’s true, I’ve gone 1-5 over the last two weeks with my NFL underdog picks. That kind of stretch calls for impeachment. But I’ve got two reasons why you should keep reading and not search block me.
Favorites have gone 21-9 against the spread the last two weeks. It’s tough picking winners when faves are covering at that rate.
Still, I’m not saying I’m faultless here. I mean I did pick the Raiders to cover last week.
I decided to seek professional help. Luckily, being an associate editor at Cover*s.com comes with a few perks. I dialed up two Covers Experts to give me some dog training lessons.
The first thing I learned is not to back the worst teams in the league. Sounds simple enough, but don’t forget I’m the schmuck who thought Oakland had a chance to cover the 9.5 points at Houston last week.
“I’m not looking for bottom feeders,” Covers Expert Ted Sevransky told me. “St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland. I’m not looking to back any of them.”
It’s probably no coincidence that two of my seven losses this season have come when I took the Bucs and the Raiders.
Fellow Covers Expert Ben Burns also advises against betting the league’s worst teams.
“If I’m betting an underdog in the NFL, I need to believe that my underdog has a real chance to win the game outright,” Burns says. “If I can’t envision the team actually pulling off the upset, then I’d rather look for another one.”
I’m sorry if this isn’t groundbreaking for anyone out there, but it’s helpful for me. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve looked at a pointspread and just said, “That’s way too big. This team has no chance of winning straight up, but it’ll cover that number no problem.”
Well now I know better. And knowing, according to G.I. Joe, is half the battle.
I also learned I haven’t been using situational handicapping methods nearly enough. Sevransky and Burns both stressed the importance of divisional games.
“I’m particularly fond of divisional home dogs,” Burns says. “No matter how bleak things are, in terms of the season, underdogs are less likely to pack it in against a divisional rival.”
Burns also likes taking a dog when a favorite is in a difficult scheduling spot. He used Cincinnati as an example. The Bengals were coming off a huge win over the Steelers in Week 3 and they had the Browns before another belter against Baltimore the following week.
The Browns covered the number and nearly won the game outright.
Teddy told me to adjust to the new season right away. What happened a year ago has nothing to do with this season. Jesus, I wish he would have told me that before I backed Tennessee for the first three weeks.
Sevranksy also told me, to be successful for the next stage of the season, I would have to spot clubs that are better than most people think they are.
“I’m specifically looking to identify teams that haven’t looked good so far, but could end up being much better.”
OK. I’ve been given expert direction. Now I’ve got to go out there and make it rain winners.
Deep breath, deep breath…
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I’m a Niners supporter but unlike some NFL fans I’m reasonable enough to know when my team is getting too much credit. San Francisco’s offense is limited. If you’re not convinced you haven’t seen this team play enough.
San Fran’s defense is good, but the unit will have a tough time matching up with all of Atlanta’s offensive weapons.
This should be a low-scoring game but Atlanta will find pay dirt more often than the 49ers, especially with Frank Gore watching from the sidelines.
Pick: Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals (+9) at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens only impressed me more with their loss to New England. They were in that game the entire way and if Mark Clayton knew how to catch a ball thrown directly into his chest, Baltimore would have left Gillette Stadium 4-0 straight up and against the spread.
The reason I like Cincy is due to the tutorial I received. This is a huge divisional matchup for the Bengals and their near loss to the Browns was a perfect wakeup call for Marvin Lewis’ boys.
It also looks like Ravens rookie tackle Michael Oher will have to play the left side and block NFL sack leader Antwan Odom Sunday. Oher played left tackle in college but he’s been on the right side since preseason.
Pick: Cincy
Houston Texans (+5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
I really wanted to take the Seahawks, but oddsmakers have turned Seattle into a short home fave now that Matt Hasselbeck is healthy enough to start. Pat yourself on the back if you grabbed Seattle at +3 earlier in the week. That’s a winning play.
Houston’s defense hasn’t been able to stop the run, but that’s not a weakness Arizona’s offense will likely be able to expose. The Cardinals are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and 60 rushing yards per game.
I’d feel a little more confident with the Texans if I knew for sure elite pass rusher Mario Williams will play Sunday. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, but coach Gary Kubiak says Williams doesn’t need to take any snaps in practice to start Sunday.
It’ll be a shootout and I see Houston scoring more than enough points to walk away from the Desert State with the win.
Pick: Texans
It's always noon somewhere! 