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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
We're already to Week Five of the NFL season. Seems we spent all summer waiting for football to arrive, and the first month of pro action is already in the books!
Here's a look at what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's pro football slate. The information is gleaned from my conversations with sharps, my read of their betting patterns, and my knowledge of the strategies they use on game day in this sport. I greatly appreciate that so many of you have been avid readers of this feature since we started presenting it here at the website. I'm pleased to see so many new bettors thinking like sharps and betting like sharps.
Here we go. Games are presented in rotation order:
MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS: We've already seen a few games like this...where one of the league powers is on the road against one of the helpless patsies...and oddsmakers have to figure out where to stick the line. If they post a number in the 7½ to 8½ range, they'll get flooded with teaser players on the favorite. The basic strategy for teasers (crossing both the 3 and the 7 in two-teamers) did extremely well last week, leading several offshore places to change their odds on the option. Books are simply sick and tired of getting crushed with that winning strategy! Vegas and Reno books have done whatever they can to discourage the action too. Even with that discouragement, they STILL want to avoid putting lines in the strike zone. So, that means likes of 9 or higher or going to be more common until the dregs of the league start covering some games. Minnesota is -9½. Sharps aren't involved at that number. They might take a shot on the home dog at +10 or more. Some old school guys take all double digit dogs in this league no questions asked.
DALLAS AT KANSAS CITY: Same story here, with Dallas at -9 in most places because so many books don't want to deal with teasers. I'm seeing numbers at less than 9 at the sportsbooks who have such bad payoffs on teasers that they don't get much action. Sharps generally like Kansas City at this price based on what I'm hearing. They're waiting to see if the public drives the Cowboys up to -10 over the weekend. That could happen with the Pokes in a bounce back spot off a national TV loss. Remember that sharps hardly ever lay points in the NFL, particularly at lines of a TD or more. It's dog or nothing here on the team side. Nothing much has happened with the total yet either. We're getting to the point where game day weather can influence totals in the Midwest cities and further north. Remember that sharps bet Under at the first sign of weather issues.
WASHINGTON AT CAROLINA: Carolina opened -5½, which struck me as very high considering how badly they'd been playing. Sharps agreed, and immediately pounded underdog Washington even though many spent the first month of the season marveling at how bad Jason Campbell was! The line is down to 3½, where it's sat for awhile. Sportsbooks don't want to go down to -3 because they'll invite a ton of Carolina action from people shooting middles. For now, they'll accept being one-sided with Washington bets. Weekend action may influence their thinking. The total has stayed solid at 37½.
TAMPA BAY AT PHILADELPHIA: Scary to think about how high lines might get if the bad teams can't be competitive. This line opened at Tampa Bay -14, and it's already up to -15 on the news that Donovan McNabb is likely to return. We saw this with New England two years ago, and may start to see it a lot. Whenever a good team is favored near a key number...sharps will bet the favorite early to create position for a possible middle later. They don't necessarily like the favorite. But, they know the public loves betting these power teams against helpless opponents. Sharps get in early near the key number...then come back over the top at a better line on game day. Let's say the public keeps betting the Eagles...and the number goes up to 16 or 17 on Sunday. Sharps will buy back most or all of their earlier bets, or even come back over the top stronger on the dog. If the game lands near the number, they win everything. Expect to see more of that on these games near two TD's. And, watch the weather this weekend. Unders will get a look in unfriendly weather particularly with an inexperienced QB playing on the road against a great defense. Note that TB's only TD last week came on a 10-yard drive.
OAKLAND AT NY GIANTS: This game opened at 15, so a key number wasn't involved early. Sharps didn't take any positions because of that...and because Eli Manning has a foot injury. They're hoping the public hits the Giants over the weekend so they can have a shot at +16 or +17 with the Raiders. No, they don't suddenly like the Raiders. But, sharps know the history of double digit dogs the past several decades. All big ugly dogs look horrible on paper. You'd be surprised how often they cover these big lines. The total has dropped from 42 to 39½ because of the Manning situation, and Oakland's horrendous offense. There are rumors that Oakland will go to an up tempo attack this week though, which might drive the line higher by the time you read this.
CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO: Buffalo opened at -6 and has stayed solid all week. Boy there sure are a lot of ugly teams in the NFL this year! Buffalo looked awful at Miami last week, still doesn't have much offense, but they're favored by a TD here against one of the worst teams in the league. Maybe the Braylon Edwards trade will help locker room dynamics with the Browns. Or, maybe the team is just a lost cause. The total has gone up from 39 to 40½. Cleveland did go Over last week with the QB change. And, Buffalo needs to get Terrell Owens more involved in the offense or there will be an implosion.
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: Another game that's sitting on -9 at most places because nobody wants to deal with teasers. I've been emphasizing this theme do you ever since we started these web articles back when I joined VSM. Aren't you glad you knew something your buddies didn't! So far, this is a week where the public will have to decide if they want to pay a premium to back the big favorites against the lousy dogs...followed by sharps deciding if they want to place "value" bets on ugly dogs because of the historical records. Very few games to get excited about at this point. Note that NFL favorites are 21-9 ATS the last 30 games. That's a lot of grouchy sportsbook operators because the public is winning, and the sharps have softened the blow of dog losses with teaser profits.
PITTSBURGH AT DETROIT: Yup, a road double digit favorite. It's the defending Super Bowl champs playing the team that went 0-16 last year, and just saw its young star QB get hurt in Chicago last week. Early money came in on Detroit at +12, leading to the +10½ I'm seeing everywhere at press time. Interesting that sharps stepped in early on the dog rather than taking position on Pittsburgh. The Steelers failed to cover (or even win) at Chicago and Cincinnati. Sharps were okay taking the +12 with that backdrop. The total has gone up from 42 to 44, probably based on how wide open both teams played last week. Very high scoring games in both Detroit/Chicago and San Diego/Pittsburgh.
ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: Early love for San Francisco, with the game opening at pick-em and rising very quickly. I'm currently seeing San Francisco -2½...which does create some teaser opportunities on the dog. That tells you A LOT of money is coming in on the Niners at the numbers below a field goal. Sportsbooks are between a rock and a hard place. If they move to -3, then a bunch of Atlanta money comes in from middle shooters. If they don't, then Atlanta will be in everyone's teasers and the sportsbooks will need to root for a San Francisco blowout...which would mean they lose to all of the early bettors! The penalties for bad opening numbers are getting stiffer every year for the sportsbooks. The total here has dropped from 43 to 41, reflecting strong sentiment for the Under.
NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER: Here's the first game like this so far...where we've got a line right on the cusp between 3 and 3½. If it's 3½, then people are betting Denver. At 3, there's sentiment for the Patriots. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to risk getting "sided" with a 3-point game margin, or if they want to be one-sided on one team or the other. There's no such line as 3.25! And, that's obviously the same as 3½ in terms of how the scoreboard actually works. It's a shame we had to wait so long to get to good matchups! Atlanta/San Francisco and New England/Denver give fans hope for compelling games to watch. This one has the added drama with the head coaches. Dallas/Denver got a lot of action in the TV window last week. I expect this game to be just as popular an attraction at the Nevada books.
HOUSTON AT ARIZONA: This one could get interesting just because of the offensive firepower on the field. I'm a little surprised the total is still at 49. This is the type of game the public likes to bet Over. Sharps know that, so they'd be prone to take a position at 49, then come back for a middle at 51 or 52. Totals are going on the board a bit later than they used to...so maybe strategies like that are going to take hold later in the week than in the past. Sportsbooks are being very careful during football season now. They're just not making enough during the other sports to cover losses in football. The corporations need to win NOW.
JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE: This game has stayed off the board in most places because of the uncertainty at the QB position for the hosts. Seattle has played horribly since Seneca Wallace had to run the show. But, that was against a pretty tough schedule (2nd half in San Francisco, then vs. Chicago and at Indianapolis). The Jacksonville team that showed up the last two weeks will win this one easily. Those were divisional games though (Houston and Tennessee). This is a non-conference game on the other side of the country. Sharps just aren't that interested from what I'm hearing. A bad number on the board would get their attention.
INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE: Indianapolis is currently at -3½, and we have another game where preferences will probably be determined by whether the game's at 3½ or 3. I'm not sensing the same passion for the home dog though as we're seeing in New England/Denver at the same price range. Denver has impressed, even if they're not as good as their 4-0 straight up record. Tennessee has looked pretty bad the last few weeks. They're 0-4 record is misleading...but this still may be a team that lost its mojo. Peyton Manning has road wins at Miami and Arizona already. I guess I'd say it this way. Sharps are looking for ways to bet Denver, but let enthused about Tennessee.
NY JETS AT MIAMI: This game opened at the Jets -2½...which meant it was either going to rise up to a field goal and cause headaches of the favorite/dog variety, stay put and cause headaches of the teaser variety, or go down to Jets -1 because oddsmakers are tired of the headaches. I'm seeing -1 right now. It will be interesting to see how the money hits this game over the weekend and on Monday afternoon. The Jets are becoming a public team because of their success. Miami with Chad Henne doesn't inspire great confidence in the public, even though they won big against Buffalo last week. Sportsbooks don't want to drive through the 1½ to 2½ window with the Jets because of teasers. If they go to -3, then the world comes in on the home dog plus a field goal. It's going to be fun! If you like the Jets, you might as well lay the -1 now. If you like Miami, see what you can get with teaser or dog action closer to kick off.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
We're already to Week Five of the NFL season. Seems we spent all summer waiting for football to arrive, and the first month of pro action is already in the books!
Here's a look at what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's pro football slate. The information is gleaned from my conversations with sharps, my read of their betting patterns, and my knowledge of the strategies they use on game day in this sport. I greatly appreciate that so many of you have been avid readers of this feature since we started presenting it here at the website. I'm pleased to see so many new bettors thinking like sharps and betting like sharps.
Here we go. Games are presented in rotation order:
MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS: We've already seen a few games like this...where one of the league powers is on the road against one of the helpless patsies...and oddsmakers have to figure out where to stick the line. If they post a number in the 7½ to 8½ range, they'll get flooded with teaser players on the favorite. The basic strategy for teasers (crossing both the 3 and the 7 in two-teamers) did extremely well last week, leading several offshore places to change their odds on the option. Books are simply sick and tired of getting crushed with that winning strategy! Vegas and Reno books have done whatever they can to discourage the action too. Even with that discouragement, they STILL want to avoid putting lines in the strike zone. So, that means likes of 9 or higher or going to be more common until the dregs of the league start covering some games. Minnesota is -9½. Sharps aren't involved at that number. They might take a shot on the home dog at +10 or more. Some old school guys take all double digit dogs in this league no questions asked.
DALLAS AT KANSAS CITY: Same story here, with Dallas at -9 in most places because so many books don't want to deal with teasers. I'm seeing numbers at less than 9 at the sportsbooks who have such bad payoffs on teasers that they don't get much action. Sharps generally like Kansas City at this price based on what I'm hearing. They're waiting to see if the public drives the Cowboys up to -10 over the weekend. That could happen with the Pokes in a bounce back spot off a national TV loss. Remember that sharps hardly ever lay points in the NFL, particularly at lines of a TD or more. It's dog or nothing here on the team side. Nothing much has happened with the total yet either. We're getting to the point where game day weather can influence totals in the Midwest cities and further north. Remember that sharps bet Under at the first sign of weather issues.
WASHINGTON AT CAROLINA: Carolina opened -5½, which struck me as very high considering how badly they'd been playing. Sharps agreed, and immediately pounded underdog Washington even though many spent the first month of the season marveling at how bad Jason Campbell was! The line is down to 3½, where it's sat for awhile. Sportsbooks don't want to go down to -3 because they'll invite a ton of Carolina action from people shooting middles. For now, they'll accept being one-sided with Washington bets. Weekend action may influence their thinking. The total has stayed solid at 37½.
TAMPA BAY AT PHILADELPHIA: Scary to think about how high lines might get if the bad teams can't be competitive. This line opened at Tampa Bay -14, and it's already up to -15 on the news that Donovan McNabb is likely to return. We saw this with New England two years ago, and may start to see it a lot. Whenever a good team is favored near a key number...sharps will bet the favorite early to create position for a possible middle later. They don't necessarily like the favorite. But, they know the public loves betting these power teams against helpless opponents. Sharps get in early near the key number...then come back over the top at a better line on game day. Let's say the public keeps betting the Eagles...and the number goes up to 16 or 17 on Sunday. Sharps will buy back most or all of their earlier bets, or even come back over the top stronger on the dog. If the game lands near the number, they win everything. Expect to see more of that on these games near two TD's. And, watch the weather this weekend. Unders will get a look in unfriendly weather particularly with an inexperienced QB playing on the road against a great defense. Note that TB's only TD last week came on a 10-yard drive.
OAKLAND AT NY GIANTS: This game opened at 15, so a key number wasn't involved early. Sharps didn't take any positions because of that...and because Eli Manning has a foot injury. They're hoping the public hits the Giants over the weekend so they can have a shot at +16 or +17 with the Raiders. No, they don't suddenly like the Raiders. But, sharps know the history of double digit dogs the past several decades. All big ugly dogs look horrible on paper. You'd be surprised how often they cover these big lines. The total has dropped from 42 to 39½ because of the Manning situation, and Oakland's horrendous offense. There are rumors that Oakland will go to an up tempo attack this week though, which might drive the line higher by the time you read this.
CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO: Buffalo opened at -6 and has stayed solid all week. Boy there sure are a lot of ugly teams in the NFL this year! Buffalo looked awful at Miami last week, still doesn't have much offense, but they're favored by a TD here against one of the worst teams in the league. Maybe the Braylon Edwards trade will help locker room dynamics with the Browns. Or, maybe the team is just a lost cause. The total has gone up from 39 to 40½. Cleveland did go Over last week with the QB change. And, Buffalo needs to get Terrell Owens more involved in the offense or there will be an implosion.
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: Another game that's sitting on -9 at most places because nobody wants to deal with teasers. I've been emphasizing this theme do you ever since we started these web articles back when I joined VSM. Aren't you glad you knew something your buddies didn't! So far, this is a week where the public will have to decide if they want to pay a premium to back the big favorites against the lousy dogs...followed by sharps deciding if they want to place "value" bets on ugly dogs because of the historical records. Very few games to get excited about at this point. Note that NFL favorites are 21-9 ATS the last 30 games. That's a lot of grouchy sportsbook operators because the public is winning, and the sharps have softened the blow of dog losses with teaser profits.
PITTSBURGH AT DETROIT: Yup, a road double digit favorite. It's the defending Super Bowl champs playing the team that went 0-16 last year, and just saw its young star QB get hurt in Chicago last week. Early money came in on Detroit at +12, leading to the +10½ I'm seeing everywhere at press time. Interesting that sharps stepped in early on the dog rather than taking position on Pittsburgh. The Steelers failed to cover (or even win) at Chicago and Cincinnati. Sharps were okay taking the +12 with that backdrop. The total has gone up from 42 to 44, probably based on how wide open both teams played last week. Very high scoring games in both Detroit/Chicago and San Diego/Pittsburgh.
ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: Early love for San Francisco, with the game opening at pick-em and rising very quickly. I'm currently seeing San Francisco -2½...which does create some teaser opportunities on the dog. That tells you A LOT of money is coming in on the Niners at the numbers below a field goal. Sportsbooks are between a rock and a hard place. If they move to -3, then a bunch of Atlanta money comes in from middle shooters. If they don't, then Atlanta will be in everyone's teasers and the sportsbooks will need to root for a San Francisco blowout...which would mean they lose to all of the early bettors! The penalties for bad opening numbers are getting stiffer every year for the sportsbooks. The total here has dropped from 43 to 41, reflecting strong sentiment for the Under.
NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER: Here's the first game like this so far...where we've got a line right on the cusp between 3 and 3½. If it's 3½, then people are betting Denver. At 3, there's sentiment for the Patriots. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to risk getting "sided" with a 3-point game margin, or if they want to be one-sided on one team or the other. There's no such line as 3.25! And, that's obviously the same as 3½ in terms of how the scoreboard actually works. It's a shame we had to wait so long to get to good matchups! Atlanta/San Francisco and New England/Denver give fans hope for compelling games to watch. This one has the added drama with the head coaches. Dallas/Denver got a lot of action in the TV window last week. I expect this game to be just as popular an attraction at the Nevada books.
HOUSTON AT ARIZONA: This one could get interesting just because of the offensive firepower on the field. I'm a little surprised the total is still at 49. This is the type of game the public likes to bet Over. Sharps know that, so they'd be prone to take a position at 49, then come back for a middle at 51 or 52. Totals are going on the board a bit later than they used to...so maybe strategies like that are going to take hold later in the week than in the past. Sportsbooks are being very careful during football season now. They're just not making enough during the other sports to cover losses in football. The corporations need to win NOW.
JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE: This game has stayed off the board in most places because of the uncertainty at the QB position for the hosts. Seattle has played horribly since Seneca Wallace had to run the show. But, that was against a pretty tough schedule (2nd half in San Francisco, then vs. Chicago and at Indianapolis). The Jacksonville team that showed up the last two weeks will win this one easily. Those were divisional games though (Houston and Tennessee). This is a non-conference game on the other side of the country. Sharps just aren't that interested from what I'm hearing. A bad number on the board would get their attention.
INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE: Indianapolis is currently at -3½, and we have another game where preferences will probably be determined by whether the game's at 3½ or 3. I'm not sensing the same passion for the home dog though as we're seeing in New England/Denver at the same price range. Denver has impressed, even if they're not as good as their 4-0 straight up record. Tennessee has looked pretty bad the last few weeks. They're 0-4 record is misleading...but this still may be a team that lost its mojo. Peyton Manning has road wins at Miami and Arizona already. I guess I'd say it this way. Sharps are looking for ways to bet Denver, but let enthused about Tennessee.
NY JETS AT MIAMI: This game opened at the Jets -2½...which meant it was either going to rise up to a field goal and cause headaches of the favorite/dog variety, stay put and cause headaches of the teaser variety, or go down to Jets -1 because oddsmakers are tired of the headaches. I'm seeing -1 right now. It will be interesting to see how the money hits this game over the weekend and on Monday afternoon. The Jets are becoming a public team because of their success. Miami with Chad Henne doesn't inspire great confidence in the public, even though they won big against Buffalo last week. Sportsbooks don't want to drive through the 1½ to 2½ window with the Jets because of teasers. If they go to -3, then the world comes in on the home dog plus a field goal. It's going to be fun! If you like the Jets, you might as well lay the -1 now. If you like Miami, see what you can get with teaser or dog action closer to kick off.
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