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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK FOUR IN THE NFL
Time once again to look at what the sharps are thinking about this week's NFL games. For your convenience, matchups are presented in rotation order.
OAKLAND AT HOUSTON: This is a game nobody wants to touch with a 10-foot pole. Houston is a very poor favorite because they don't play much defense and the offense can be turnover prone. Sharps don't like laying points anyway, they REALLY hate laying points with that kind of team. Oakland has just looked pathetic so far, making it very difficult to back them with confidence. And, many sharps are holding a grudge from last week when the Raiders messed up what was almost a huge teaser day. You regulars know that sharps like taking teams across both the 3 and the 7 whenever they can in two-team teasers. The best nominees for that last week all covered, except for Oakland. Sharps won a little, but would have swept the board and made a killing if the Raiders hadn't no-showed against Denver. Right now, sharps don't want any part of this game. I don't expect them getting involved unless there are developments before game day in terms of injuries or personnel changes.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Tennessee got a lot of early love as the opening line of Titans -1 moved all the way up to Tennessee -3. That's a big move for a road favorite. And, there wasn't any buy back at -3 from people wanting to hedge their bet on a key number. Tennessee is 0-3 so far against a tough schedule. Sharps just don't see them falling to 0-4 with this head coach and quarterback. Jacksonville did look good last week against Houston. A lot of teams look good against Houston. The sharps are backing the better defense and who they believe is the better coach. I should note though that the affection stopped right at -3. They're not backing Tennessee at the current line.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND: This is clearly the marquee game of the week in terms of quality. Green Bay/Minnesota will get a lot of headlines because of the Brett Favre situation. This is a much bigger game in my view. Baltimore may be the best team in the AFC right now. New England used to be, and want to get back on top of the heap. GREAT game! Oddsmakers are in a pickle here. The game opened at New England -3. A lot of money came in on the Ravens because the sharps currently see them as the superior squad. If the line stays just below a field goal...then Baltimore will be in a million teasers come Sunday because you can bet them from around +2 to around +8 and cross both the 3 and the 7. Sportsbooks don't want that. If they drop the line too close to pick-em, that could invite way too much New England money coming in from the squares on game day. Oddsmakers will hope to split the action as best as possible, then hope a blowout by one team or the other will spike all the teasers. New England winning by exactly two could end up being a big disaster for the books! The sharps like Baltimore +3 here, and will love the Ravens in teasers if the late week line is in the right window.
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: Cincinnati opened at -4, and jumped up quickly to -5½. A lot of sharps respect what they're seeing from the Bengals so far, particularly on defense. And, many dog lovers didn't have much success outside of Cincinnati last weekend. That increased the fondness for the Bengals. Cleveland looks like a disaster in progress. Though, a quarterback change might help the cause. The best evidence though is that the Browns really don't have any good options at several positions right now...and brought in the kind of head coach who only makes that worse. We've really had a HUGE change in perceptions about these two teams since the season started. The Browns would probably have been a home favorite if this were the regular season opener. I haven't had much to say about totals yet. Oddsmakers did a better job this week than last week of posting openers.
NY GIANTS AT KANSAS CITY: We had a lot of this type of game last year. And, the spread from best to worst means we'll see more this year. The superior road team will be favored by about 8-9 points. If the number is below 9, then the road favorite will be in a million teasers because everyone will bring the Giants down below 3 points in two-teamers. If the line is at 9, either the dog will get action or nobody will bet the game. Vegas doesn't make money when nobody bets the game, but they've been losing money with "basic strategy" teasers in recent years...so it's a tough choice about what to do with the line. This is the third straight road game for the Giants. Some "system" guys will bet home dog Kansas City on that alone. Not much happening here yet. It could get interesting on game day.
DETROIT AT CHICAGO: Chicago opened at -12 here, and saw the line come right down to -10. Detroit earned some betting respect with their win over Washington last week. And, Jay Cutler is so flaky as a QB that you can't trust him as a big favorite. Dog lovers usually wait until the last second to act because the public bets the chalk. Here, most sharps knew they ALL wanted the big dog, and bet quickly to make sure other sharps didn't take away their edge. Guys in at +12, +11, or +10½ are happy. The action died then. If the public hits the Bears on game day, sharps will come back in on anything more than the key number of 10. The total went up from 38 to 39½. If the weather is going to be good in Chicago, it could go up even higher on game day. Jay Cutler isn't an Under quarterback against soft defenses. He either scores or helps the other team score.
TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON: Sharps take pride on how much they know about football...but hardly anyone knows much about the new Tampa Bay quarterback! Josh Johnson played for a non-board team in college (like Tony Romo did). Maybe he'll be okay. Maybe he'll be a disaster. Nobody wants to bet their money until they have a better read. You can't lay points with Washington vs. bad teams. They've proven that time and time again in recent years. Tampa Bay is a mess, making it hard to take any shots on the Bucs. This isn't a game getting much attention from sharps right now. Old school dog players are licking their wounds as it is with Tampa Bay going 0-3 ATS so far. It was tough to believe this team became THIS bad so quickly. It happened. And, we may not have seen the worst yet.
SEATTLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: This game was still off the board at press time pending injury news on the Seattle quarterback. Indianapolis impressed the heck out of sharps this past Sunday Night. Many liked Arizona at a cheap price because the Colts were playing back-to-back road games off a short preparation week. My guess is that the line will come high because of that result...and the public's tendency to bet Peyton Manning (particularly at home). Squares will probably be on Seattle plus a big number on game day.
NY JETS AT NEW ORLEANS: I mentioned earlier that Baltimore/New England was the marquee game of the week. This would have to be the darkhorse game...because both of these teams may end up being bigger stories come playoff time. We'll have to let the season play itself out. New Orleans has the early look of a champion. The Jets are playing championship defense...and Baltimore showed last year you can make it to a conference championships game with a great defense and a rookie quarterback. The early money has been on New Orleans, with an opening line of 6½ moving up to -7. That's A LOT to give to a great defense. The fact that New York money hasn't come in tells you the sharps think this will be a bad week for the Jets. They have to be tired after playing tough home battles with New England and Tennessee. New Orleans can run up the score on "tired." Many sharps won big with the Jets against the Patriots two weeks ago. They'll be on them again soon. This is a tough schedule spot though, and sharps have an eye for handling those correctly. The total has come down from 48 to 45. And, THAT'S where the support came in for the Jets defense. New Orleans sat on a lead at Buffalo last week. Should they do that here, then Under bettors can win in a variety of scenarios. Sharps found a way to bet on the Jets defense without betting on the team. That's why these guys are pro's!
BUFFALO AT MIAMI: Buffalo got early support when news broke that Chad Pennington was out for the season for Miami. The very small favorite flip-flopped to the other side. But, the line didn't keep moving all the way up to a field goal...so that was lukewarm support. Sharps are playing the percentages with the switch to Chad Henne, but aren't endorsing Buffalo the way they did somebody like Tennessee in a similar price range. It's really tough to love either team here given how they've been playing. There's some relatively tepid "like" on Buffalo. The early total of 38½ has come down to 37 because of the conservative coaching styles and inconsistent offenses on the field. Not much margin for error at a low number like that. But, new QB's sometimes have trouble finding the end zone in their first starts.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: Looks like this one is going to hang around the 9½ and 10 range...with sharps preferring St. Louis +10 (particularly with Frank Gore out for the Niners), while the squares may line up on the favorite at -9½ (because they love laying single digits against bad teams). We don't have much of a history with Mike Singletary in the role of a big favorite. The sharps are definitely willing to take a shot that his conservative style will make it tough to win big.
DALLAS AT DENVER: The line has pretty much stayed at Dallas -3 as of press time. But, enough money has come in on the home underdog to lower the juice. Dallas is even money at -3 in some places, with Denver backers have to lay -120 to get the field goal. This may be a tug-of-war game on Sunday, with the public taking Dallas and the squares buying back whatever's bet on the Broncos. Denver won over the sharps pretty quick with their blowout covers over Cleveland and Oakland. Sure, those are bad teams. But, Denver was dominant in both games. That's enough to at least give them a shot to compete with erratic Dallas. The total has come down from 43½ to 42. Kyle Orton plays Unders when things are going well. He eats up clock and helps out his own defense.
SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -5½, but is now up to -7 in many places. The San Diego injury situation is in play here. And, Pittsburgh is expected to come out hot after blowing close games at Chicago and Cincinnati the past two weeks. Sharps need a lot of factors to back a favorite. They decided Pittsburgh was at least worth a shot at below a touchdown. If the public drives the line higher, some sharps will buy back on the Chargers at +7½ or more to shoot at the middle. And, some of that early money at -5½ was probably just position-taking anyway. Sharps who know they'll like the dog at a high line later on will bet the favorite early, then come back over the top bigger on the dog on game day. If you like an NFL favorite yourself, you'd better act early!
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA: This is going to be one popular betting attraction! The public loves betting Monday Night games. The public loves betting on Brett Favre. Brett Favre just had a big highlight last Sunday that's getting replayed over and over again. And, now, he's facing his former team in what is arguably one of the showcase games of ALL TIME in terms of the soap opera elements. Imagine Joe Montana playing for Kansas City against San Francisco in A BIG GAME when Montana was still productive. Imagine Joe Namath playing for the LA Rams against the NY Jets in A BIG GAME before his knees gave out. Sure, it may be topped down the road when Favre has to do this all over again, but in GREEN BAY! For now, this is plenty big to drive Vegas betting action. I expect one of the biggest action Mondays of the entire calendar year. By the early looks of things...the squares will be taking Minnesota -3 with increased juice or at -3½ (maybe up to -4 on game night depending on volume). Sharps will be taking Green Bay, hoping for as high a line as they can get. Many sharps won with San Francisco (+7) last week over Minnesota, and think they should have won that game outright. They'll have no trouble going against Favre again.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK FOUR IN THE NFL
Time once again to look at what the sharps are thinking about this week's NFL games. For your convenience, matchups are presented in rotation order.
OAKLAND AT HOUSTON: This is a game nobody wants to touch with a 10-foot pole. Houston is a very poor favorite because they don't play much defense and the offense can be turnover prone. Sharps don't like laying points anyway, they REALLY hate laying points with that kind of team. Oakland has just looked pathetic so far, making it very difficult to back them with confidence. And, many sharps are holding a grudge from last week when the Raiders messed up what was almost a huge teaser day. You regulars know that sharps like taking teams across both the 3 and the 7 whenever they can in two-team teasers. The best nominees for that last week all covered, except for Oakland. Sharps won a little, but would have swept the board and made a killing if the Raiders hadn't no-showed against Denver. Right now, sharps don't want any part of this game. I don't expect them getting involved unless there are developments before game day in terms of injuries or personnel changes.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Tennessee got a lot of early love as the opening line of Titans -1 moved all the way up to Tennessee -3. That's a big move for a road favorite. And, there wasn't any buy back at -3 from people wanting to hedge their bet on a key number. Tennessee is 0-3 so far against a tough schedule. Sharps just don't see them falling to 0-4 with this head coach and quarterback. Jacksonville did look good last week against Houston. A lot of teams look good against Houston. The sharps are backing the better defense and who they believe is the better coach. I should note though that the affection stopped right at -3. They're not backing Tennessee at the current line.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND: This is clearly the marquee game of the week in terms of quality. Green Bay/Minnesota will get a lot of headlines because of the Brett Favre situation. This is a much bigger game in my view. Baltimore may be the best team in the AFC right now. New England used to be, and want to get back on top of the heap. GREAT game! Oddsmakers are in a pickle here. The game opened at New England -3. A lot of money came in on the Ravens because the sharps currently see them as the superior squad. If the line stays just below a field goal...then Baltimore will be in a million teasers come Sunday because you can bet them from around +2 to around +8 and cross both the 3 and the 7. Sportsbooks don't want that. If they drop the line too close to pick-em, that could invite way too much New England money coming in from the squares on game day. Oddsmakers will hope to split the action as best as possible, then hope a blowout by one team or the other will spike all the teasers. New England winning by exactly two could end up being a big disaster for the books! The sharps like Baltimore +3 here, and will love the Ravens in teasers if the late week line is in the right window.
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: Cincinnati opened at -4, and jumped up quickly to -5½. A lot of sharps respect what they're seeing from the Bengals so far, particularly on defense. And, many dog lovers didn't have much success outside of Cincinnati last weekend. That increased the fondness for the Bengals. Cleveland looks like a disaster in progress. Though, a quarterback change might help the cause. The best evidence though is that the Browns really don't have any good options at several positions right now...and brought in the kind of head coach who only makes that worse. We've really had a HUGE change in perceptions about these two teams since the season started. The Browns would probably have been a home favorite if this were the regular season opener. I haven't had much to say about totals yet. Oddsmakers did a better job this week than last week of posting openers.
NY GIANTS AT KANSAS CITY: We had a lot of this type of game last year. And, the spread from best to worst means we'll see more this year. The superior road team will be favored by about 8-9 points. If the number is below 9, then the road favorite will be in a million teasers because everyone will bring the Giants down below 3 points in two-teamers. If the line is at 9, either the dog will get action or nobody will bet the game. Vegas doesn't make money when nobody bets the game, but they've been losing money with "basic strategy" teasers in recent years...so it's a tough choice about what to do with the line. This is the third straight road game for the Giants. Some "system" guys will bet home dog Kansas City on that alone. Not much happening here yet. It could get interesting on game day.
DETROIT AT CHICAGO: Chicago opened at -12 here, and saw the line come right down to -10. Detroit earned some betting respect with their win over Washington last week. And, Jay Cutler is so flaky as a QB that you can't trust him as a big favorite. Dog lovers usually wait until the last second to act because the public bets the chalk. Here, most sharps knew they ALL wanted the big dog, and bet quickly to make sure other sharps didn't take away their edge. Guys in at +12, +11, or +10½ are happy. The action died then. If the public hits the Bears on game day, sharps will come back in on anything more than the key number of 10. The total went up from 38 to 39½. If the weather is going to be good in Chicago, it could go up even higher on game day. Jay Cutler isn't an Under quarterback against soft defenses. He either scores or helps the other team score.
TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON: Sharps take pride on how much they know about football...but hardly anyone knows much about the new Tampa Bay quarterback! Josh Johnson played for a non-board team in college (like Tony Romo did). Maybe he'll be okay. Maybe he'll be a disaster. Nobody wants to bet their money until they have a better read. You can't lay points with Washington vs. bad teams. They've proven that time and time again in recent years. Tampa Bay is a mess, making it hard to take any shots on the Bucs. This isn't a game getting much attention from sharps right now. Old school dog players are licking their wounds as it is with Tampa Bay going 0-3 ATS so far. It was tough to believe this team became THIS bad so quickly. It happened. And, we may not have seen the worst yet.
SEATTLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: This game was still off the board at press time pending injury news on the Seattle quarterback. Indianapolis impressed the heck out of sharps this past Sunday Night. Many liked Arizona at a cheap price because the Colts were playing back-to-back road games off a short preparation week. My guess is that the line will come high because of that result...and the public's tendency to bet Peyton Manning (particularly at home). Squares will probably be on Seattle plus a big number on game day.
NY JETS AT NEW ORLEANS: I mentioned earlier that Baltimore/New England was the marquee game of the week. This would have to be the darkhorse game...because both of these teams may end up being bigger stories come playoff time. We'll have to let the season play itself out. New Orleans has the early look of a champion. The Jets are playing championship defense...and Baltimore showed last year you can make it to a conference championships game with a great defense and a rookie quarterback. The early money has been on New Orleans, with an opening line of 6½ moving up to -7. That's A LOT to give to a great defense. The fact that New York money hasn't come in tells you the sharps think this will be a bad week for the Jets. They have to be tired after playing tough home battles with New England and Tennessee. New Orleans can run up the score on "tired." Many sharps won big with the Jets against the Patriots two weeks ago. They'll be on them again soon. This is a tough schedule spot though, and sharps have an eye for handling those correctly. The total has come down from 48 to 45. And, THAT'S where the support came in for the Jets defense. New Orleans sat on a lead at Buffalo last week. Should they do that here, then Under bettors can win in a variety of scenarios. Sharps found a way to bet on the Jets defense without betting on the team. That's why these guys are pro's!
BUFFALO AT MIAMI: Buffalo got early support when news broke that Chad Pennington was out for the season for Miami. The very small favorite flip-flopped to the other side. But, the line didn't keep moving all the way up to a field goal...so that was lukewarm support. Sharps are playing the percentages with the switch to Chad Henne, but aren't endorsing Buffalo the way they did somebody like Tennessee in a similar price range. It's really tough to love either team here given how they've been playing. There's some relatively tepid "like" on Buffalo. The early total of 38½ has come down to 37 because of the conservative coaching styles and inconsistent offenses on the field. Not much margin for error at a low number like that. But, new QB's sometimes have trouble finding the end zone in their first starts.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: Looks like this one is going to hang around the 9½ and 10 range...with sharps preferring St. Louis +10 (particularly with Frank Gore out for the Niners), while the squares may line up on the favorite at -9½ (because they love laying single digits against bad teams). We don't have much of a history with Mike Singletary in the role of a big favorite. The sharps are definitely willing to take a shot that his conservative style will make it tough to win big.
DALLAS AT DENVER: The line has pretty much stayed at Dallas -3 as of press time. But, enough money has come in on the home underdog to lower the juice. Dallas is even money at -3 in some places, with Denver backers have to lay -120 to get the field goal. This may be a tug-of-war game on Sunday, with the public taking Dallas and the squares buying back whatever's bet on the Broncos. Denver won over the sharps pretty quick with their blowout covers over Cleveland and Oakland. Sure, those are bad teams. But, Denver was dominant in both games. That's enough to at least give them a shot to compete with erratic Dallas. The total has come down from 43½ to 42. Kyle Orton plays Unders when things are going well. He eats up clock and helps out his own defense.
SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -5½, but is now up to -7 in many places. The San Diego injury situation is in play here. And, Pittsburgh is expected to come out hot after blowing close games at Chicago and Cincinnati the past two weeks. Sharps need a lot of factors to back a favorite. They decided Pittsburgh was at least worth a shot at below a touchdown. If the public drives the line higher, some sharps will buy back on the Chargers at +7½ or more to shoot at the middle. And, some of that early money at -5½ was probably just position-taking anyway. Sharps who know they'll like the dog at a high line later on will bet the favorite early, then come back over the top bigger on the dog on game day. If you like an NFL favorite yourself, you'd better act early!
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA: This is going to be one popular betting attraction! The public loves betting Monday Night games. The public loves betting on Brett Favre. Brett Favre just had a big highlight last Sunday that's getting replayed over and over again. And, now, he's facing his former team in what is arguably one of the showcase games of ALL TIME in terms of the soap opera elements. Imagine Joe Montana playing for Kansas City against San Francisco in A BIG GAME when Montana was still productive. Imagine Joe Namath playing for the LA Rams against the NY Jets in A BIG GAME before his knees gave out. Sure, it may be topped down the road when Favre has to do this all over again, but in GREEN BAY! For now, this is plenty big to drive Vegas betting action. I expect one of the biggest action Mondays of the entire calendar year. By the early looks of things...the squares will be taking Minnesota -3 with increased juice or at -3½ (maybe up to -4 on game night depending on volume). Sharps will be taking Green Bay, hoping for as high a line as they can get. Many sharps won with San Francisco (+7) last week over Minnesota, and think they should have won that game outright. They'll have no trouble going against Favre again.
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