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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS THINK ABOUT WEEK THREE IN THE NFL
Sharps did very well last weekend in pro football. That's always the case when underdogs do well. And, probably the two favorite underdog plays of the sharps were the NY Jets and Baltimore Ravens (particularly the Jets). So...their biggest plays made the most money!
Of course, my MOVE OF THE MONTH for clients was the Jets. I wanted to make sure everyone was playing the same side as the sharps for all they could.
Nevada sportsbooks took a big hit in those two games because the public also lined up on the underdog. I've said often in the past...oddsmakers dread the games where the sharps and squares agree. Sportsbooks get very one-sided action, and there's not much they can do to stem the tide. They just hope to win some of those over the long haul.
Luckily for sportsbooks, this past Sunday saw a lot of square action go down. When favorites struggle...the general public makes a big deposit in Vegas and Reno coffers.
Here's what the sharps are thinking about the 16 games on tap this weekend. As always games are presented in rotation order.
TENNESSEE AT NY JETS: The line here has been around Jets by 2 or 1½ most of the week. That tells you very emphatically that the sharps DON'T like the Jets this time around. They recognize this is an obvious letdown spot...which also happens to be a bounce back spot for the Titans after a loss. If the sharps liked the Jets, they would have gladly laid less than a field goal. Not happening the money that is coming in is on Tennessee for the most part. It's far from a flood though because the Titans are seen as a team moving in the wrong direction right now. The Titans will definitely be a popular teaser play if the line stays in that strike zone between 1½ and 2½. The total has come down from 38 to 37. Jets games are going Under with their new Baltimore mentality. It may come down a little more on game day from what I'm hearing.
JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: There was early money on the dog, as an opener of 4½ dropped down to Houston by 3½. But, the line has stayed at 3½ now...which means there's not really a passion for the Jaguars. Sharps who loved Jacksonville would keep pounding the 3½. This is a team that looked horrible vs. Arizona last week, and had poor stats in a misleadingly close loss at Indy to start the season. It's not a popular betting team amongst sharps, who aren't particularly fond of Houston as favorites either. Probably not a high action game from sharps unless the public moves the line in one direction or the other. I think sharps would step in on Houston at -3. They already stepped in some on Jacksonville +4½ earlier in the week.
KANSAS CITY AT PHILADELPHIA: Everybody's waiting to see the status of Donovan McNabb. As of publication deadlines, there's nothing to report. I can tell you that the sharps don't think much of Kevin Kolb. They'll take the Chiefs at a decent price against Kolb if he starts. McNabb has a knack for piling up stats on bad teams. If he looks close to 100%, this will probably be a pass. I think odds favor the sharps rooting for the Chiefs come game day. They'll shop for the best line at the last second.
CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE: There was some early action on the dog and Under at the opener. Baltimore started at -14 but is down to +13 or +13½ as I write this. Sharps tend to like dogs and Unders anyway...but will usually wait until game day to act because they know squares (the general public) likes Favorites and Over. Here, a key number was involved (14), so sharps wanted to make sure they got a piece of that. The total has dropped from 40 to 38½. In this case too, sharps were afraid the public wouldn't help them, so they went ahead and bet early. Divisional rivalry games are often low scoring wars. You have to be careful with Baltimore now though. They look like they finally have an offense.
NY GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY: The early action here was on the total, as an opener of 42½ went up to 44. Tampa Bay's defense is suddenly awful, and sharps wanted to take advantage of that early before the public piled on. I'm seeing 6½ everywhere on the team side. Squares will probably use the Giants in teasers because that moves the line down to pick-em. Sharps focus heavily on the window that crosses both the 3 and the 7 with the six point move in two-teamers. This isn't a qualifier.
WASHINGTON AT DETROIT: I expect a low action game here. Detroit's still horrible, making it hard for sharps to invest in them. Those who tried with the Lions as double digit dogs already are 0-2 for their trouble. Washington is very shaky as a favorite vs. bad teams, as you saw again last week in their non-cover against the Rams. Sharps are leaving this one alone now, and probably will all week barring late developments. The total hasn't moved either. It's like this game isn't even being played!
GREEN BAY AT ST. LOUIS: A lot of early action on St. Louis, as Green Bay by 8½ dropped to Green Bay by 6½ very quickly. The Packers looked awful last week against the Bengals (burning a lot of basic strategy teasers when the game day line fell into the right window). They were a 6-10 team last year, and are now 1-1 with a loss to the Bengals...so this just isn't the kind of team that should be laying more than a TD on the road according to the sharps. Note that nobody bought back yet to take a middle around the 7...telling you the sharps like the Rams pretty strong at their early position. Late comers are waiting to see if the public drives the line back to seven on game day. Might happen, as the public hates betting on the Rams and sees Green Bay as being in a bounce-back role. The total has dropped from 42 down to 41.
SAN FRANCISCO AT MINNESOTA: There was early love for the Under at 42. It's dropped to 40 now. Both teams are seen as defensive-minded run based teams who should play conservatively and keep the clock moving. The only danger for Under fans is that both teams have great running backs who can strike at a moment's notice. Of course, both teams have physical defenses too. Could be a real slobberknocker as the wrestling announcers like to say. Not much interest yet on the team side. I think the sharps are hoping the squares bet on Brett Favre again (he's 0-2 so far), then they'll step in on San Francisco if the line goes higher than a field goal.
ATLANTA AT NEW ENGLAND: Early support for Atlanta on the opener of +5. I'm seeing around +4 in most places now. The bloom is off the Patriots. Sharps cleaned up last week with BIG bets against New England. They think the markets are still overpricing them. The total dropped from 46½ to 45 because Tom Brady doesn't look like his old self yet. I'm surprised how many oddsmaker types thought New England was the best team in the league entering the season. There just wasn't any evidence for it. A lot has changed since 2007.
CHICAGO AT SEATTLE: Not much interest in this game. Sharps see the Bears in a letdown spot off the big win over Pittsburgh. But, they know that Seneca Wallace will quarterback Seattle. There are other injuries with the Seahawks as well. They'll check the game day weather before getting involved with the total. Always smart in Seattle. It's one thing to take Jay Cutler as a home underdog. It's another to back in on the road when he has to win to cover. Mostly a pass so far.
NEW ORLEANS AT BUFFALO: The early total of 53 dropped down to 52. A lot of old school guys just automatically bet Under anything in the 50's. That's worked them over the years, so who's going to argue? No action yet on the team side, with New Orleans holding solid at -6 all week. Sharps tend to like home dogs at that price. They're probably waiting to see if the public will drive Drew Brees and company up to -7 on game day.
MIAMI AT SAN DIEGO: Miami got early support on the high opening number of San Diego -7½. The Chargers haven't looked good yet, and have some injury issues. Can you ask them to blow somebody out when LaDainian Tomlinson is hurt? The Dolphins haven't looked very good so far, failing to beat Indy Monday Night even with a ridiculous time of possession edge (they allowed 10.2 yards-per-play!). These are both basically go-against teams right now for the sharps. Not much interest when they go head to head unless weekend news triggers an edge.
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI: A big move toward Cincinnati off the opener of +6. I'm seeing 3½ and 4 in most places now. Cincinnati earned some respect with that big win at Green Bay. If Carson Palmer is healthy, these guys will be much better than last year (though he didn't play particularly well last week). Pittsburgh is 0-2 ATS and may still be suffering a Super Bowl hangover. Sharps were happy to get the divisional home underdog with so many points when the market opened.
DENVER AT OAKLAND: There was seemingly a big move on Denver, as the opener of Oakland by 2½ has moved all the way to Denver by 1½. Just remember that ties don't happen much in the pro's...and 1's and 2's are relatively dead over a large sampling. So, this was basically a virtual pick-em favoring the Raiders and is now a virtual pick-em favoring the Broncos. Sharps were impressed with Kyle Orton last week. And, they know their winning bets on the Raiders at Kansas City were very fortunate. Oakland was outgained 409-166 and looked horrible outside of their final drive. They bet the stats from last week rather than the final scores. The total has come down from 37 to 35½ of 36. Denver's played great defensive games thus far...and Oakland's offense has been poor. Denver will have a lot of totals in the 30's this year...and you could see something really low if there are any snow games a mile high.
INDIANAPOLIS AT ARIZONA: Early support for Arizona, as the opening line of pick-em is up to about -2. I believe that's a combination of Arizona looking very good last week against Jacksonville, while the Indianapolis defense couldn't keep Miami off the field. What's Kurt Warner going to do to you if Miami is 15 of 21 on third downs? Tough travel spot for the Colts as well, playing on the road again with a short preparation week. I'm interested to see how the money comes in late Sunday. We could have a rare case where the squares are on the dog (because they love betting Peyton Manning) but the sharps are on a favorite.
CAROLINA AT DALLAS: An early move on the Over, as an opener of 45 went up to 47. Dallas looks like a "great offense/no defense" team based on the first two weeks...so sharps bet early before the squares stepped in with their inevitable Over bets. Carolina's played two Overs already...so I was a bit surprised at an opener of just 45 myself. Tough call on the team side. Sharps who thought Carolina might bounce back last week were disappointed. It's hard to bet Dallas at a high spread given their soft defense. The most likely scenario is that the squares bet Dallas all day Monday, and the sharps take big dog Carolina at the best price they can get and hope for the best. Those in early at 45 on the total are happy with their positions.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT SHARPS THINK ABOUT WEEK THREE IN THE NFL
Sharps did very well last weekend in pro football. That's always the case when underdogs do well. And, probably the two favorite underdog plays of the sharps were the NY Jets and Baltimore Ravens (particularly the Jets). So...their biggest plays made the most money!
Of course, my MOVE OF THE MONTH for clients was the Jets. I wanted to make sure everyone was playing the same side as the sharps for all they could.
Nevada sportsbooks took a big hit in those two games because the public also lined up on the underdog. I've said often in the past...oddsmakers dread the games where the sharps and squares agree. Sportsbooks get very one-sided action, and there's not much they can do to stem the tide. They just hope to win some of those over the long haul.
Luckily for sportsbooks, this past Sunday saw a lot of square action go down. When favorites struggle...the general public makes a big deposit in Vegas and Reno coffers.
Here's what the sharps are thinking about the 16 games on tap this weekend. As always games are presented in rotation order.
TENNESSEE AT NY JETS: The line here has been around Jets by 2 or 1½ most of the week. That tells you very emphatically that the sharps DON'T like the Jets this time around. They recognize this is an obvious letdown spot...which also happens to be a bounce back spot for the Titans after a loss. If the sharps liked the Jets, they would have gladly laid less than a field goal. Not happening the money that is coming in is on Tennessee for the most part. It's far from a flood though because the Titans are seen as a team moving in the wrong direction right now. The Titans will definitely be a popular teaser play if the line stays in that strike zone between 1½ and 2½. The total has come down from 38 to 37. Jets games are going Under with their new Baltimore mentality. It may come down a little more on game day from what I'm hearing.
JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: There was early money on the dog, as an opener of 4½ dropped down to Houston by 3½. But, the line has stayed at 3½ now...which means there's not really a passion for the Jaguars. Sharps who loved Jacksonville would keep pounding the 3½. This is a team that looked horrible vs. Arizona last week, and had poor stats in a misleadingly close loss at Indy to start the season. It's not a popular betting team amongst sharps, who aren't particularly fond of Houston as favorites either. Probably not a high action game from sharps unless the public moves the line in one direction or the other. I think sharps would step in on Houston at -3. They already stepped in some on Jacksonville +4½ earlier in the week.
KANSAS CITY AT PHILADELPHIA: Everybody's waiting to see the status of Donovan McNabb. As of publication deadlines, there's nothing to report. I can tell you that the sharps don't think much of Kevin Kolb. They'll take the Chiefs at a decent price against Kolb if he starts. McNabb has a knack for piling up stats on bad teams. If he looks close to 100%, this will probably be a pass. I think odds favor the sharps rooting for the Chiefs come game day. They'll shop for the best line at the last second.
CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE: There was some early action on the dog and Under at the opener. Baltimore started at -14 but is down to +13 or +13½ as I write this. Sharps tend to like dogs and Unders anyway...but will usually wait until game day to act because they know squares (the general public) likes Favorites and Over. Here, a key number was involved (14), so sharps wanted to make sure they got a piece of that. The total has dropped from 40 to 38½. In this case too, sharps were afraid the public wouldn't help them, so they went ahead and bet early. Divisional rivalry games are often low scoring wars. You have to be careful with Baltimore now though. They look like they finally have an offense.
NY GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY: The early action here was on the total, as an opener of 42½ went up to 44. Tampa Bay's defense is suddenly awful, and sharps wanted to take advantage of that early before the public piled on. I'm seeing 6½ everywhere on the team side. Squares will probably use the Giants in teasers because that moves the line down to pick-em. Sharps focus heavily on the window that crosses both the 3 and the 7 with the six point move in two-teamers. This isn't a qualifier.
WASHINGTON AT DETROIT: I expect a low action game here. Detroit's still horrible, making it hard for sharps to invest in them. Those who tried with the Lions as double digit dogs already are 0-2 for their trouble. Washington is very shaky as a favorite vs. bad teams, as you saw again last week in their non-cover against the Rams. Sharps are leaving this one alone now, and probably will all week barring late developments. The total hasn't moved either. It's like this game isn't even being played!
GREEN BAY AT ST. LOUIS: A lot of early action on St. Louis, as Green Bay by 8½ dropped to Green Bay by 6½ very quickly. The Packers looked awful last week against the Bengals (burning a lot of basic strategy teasers when the game day line fell into the right window). They were a 6-10 team last year, and are now 1-1 with a loss to the Bengals...so this just isn't the kind of team that should be laying more than a TD on the road according to the sharps. Note that nobody bought back yet to take a middle around the 7...telling you the sharps like the Rams pretty strong at their early position. Late comers are waiting to see if the public drives the line back to seven on game day. Might happen, as the public hates betting on the Rams and sees Green Bay as being in a bounce-back role. The total has dropped from 42 down to 41.
SAN FRANCISCO AT MINNESOTA: There was early love for the Under at 42. It's dropped to 40 now. Both teams are seen as defensive-minded run based teams who should play conservatively and keep the clock moving. The only danger for Under fans is that both teams have great running backs who can strike at a moment's notice. Of course, both teams have physical defenses too. Could be a real slobberknocker as the wrestling announcers like to say. Not much interest yet on the team side. I think the sharps are hoping the squares bet on Brett Favre again (he's 0-2 so far), then they'll step in on San Francisco if the line goes higher than a field goal.
ATLANTA AT NEW ENGLAND: Early support for Atlanta on the opener of +5. I'm seeing around +4 in most places now. The bloom is off the Patriots. Sharps cleaned up last week with BIG bets against New England. They think the markets are still overpricing them. The total dropped from 46½ to 45 because Tom Brady doesn't look like his old self yet. I'm surprised how many oddsmaker types thought New England was the best team in the league entering the season. There just wasn't any evidence for it. A lot has changed since 2007.
CHICAGO AT SEATTLE: Not much interest in this game. Sharps see the Bears in a letdown spot off the big win over Pittsburgh. But, they know that Seneca Wallace will quarterback Seattle. There are other injuries with the Seahawks as well. They'll check the game day weather before getting involved with the total. Always smart in Seattle. It's one thing to take Jay Cutler as a home underdog. It's another to back in on the road when he has to win to cover. Mostly a pass so far.
NEW ORLEANS AT BUFFALO: The early total of 53 dropped down to 52. A lot of old school guys just automatically bet Under anything in the 50's. That's worked them over the years, so who's going to argue? No action yet on the team side, with New Orleans holding solid at -6 all week. Sharps tend to like home dogs at that price. They're probably waiting to see if the public will drive Drew Brees and company up to -7 on game day.
MIAMI AT SAN DIEGO: Miami got early support on the high opening number of San Diego -7½. The Chargers haven't looked good yet, and have some injury issues. Can you ask them to blow somebody out when LaDainian Tomlinson is hurt? The Dolphins haven't looked very good so far, failing to beat Indy Monday Night even with a ridiculous time of possession edge (they allowed 10.2 yards-per-play!). These are both basically go-against teams right now for the sharps. Not much interest when they go head to head unless weekend news triggers an edge.
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI: A big move toward Cincinnati off the opener of +6. I'm seeing 3½ and 4 in most places now. Cincinnati earned some respect with that big win at Green Bay. If Carson Palmer is healthy, these guys will be much better than last year (though he didn't play particularly well last week). Pittsburgh is 0-2 ATS and may still be suffering a Super Bowl hangover. Sharps were happy to get the divisional home underdog with so many points when the market opened.
DENVER AT OAKLAND: There was seemingly a big move on Denver, as the opener of Oakland by 2½ has moved all the way to Denver by 1½. Just remember that ties don't happen much in the pro's...and 1's and 2's are relatively dead over a large sampling. So, this was basically a virtual pick-em favoring the Raiders and is now a virtual pick-em favoring the Broncos. Sharps were impressed with Kyle Orton last week. And, they know their winning bets on the Raiders at Kansas City were very fortunate. Oakland was outgained 409-166 and looked horrible outside of their final drive. They bet the stats from last week rather than the final scores. The total has come down from 37 to 35½ of 36. Denver's played great defensive games thus far...and Oakland's offense has been poor. Denver will have a lot of totals in the 30's this year...and you could see something really low if there are any snow games a mile high.
INDIANAPOLIS AT ARIZONA: Early support for Arizona, as the opening line of pick-em is up to about -2. I believe that's a combination of Arizona looking very good last week against Jacksonville, while the Indianapolis defense couldn't keep Miami off the field. What's Kurt Warner going to do to you if Miami is 15 of 21 on third downs? Tough travel spot for the Colts as well, playing on the road again with a short preparation week. I'm interested to see how the money comes in late Sunday. We could have a rare case where the squares are on the dog (because they love betting Peyton Manning) but the sharps are on a favorite.
CAROLINA AT DALLAS: An early move on the Over, as an opener of 45 went up to 47. Dallas looks like a "great offense/no defense" team based on the first two weeks...so sharps bet early before the squares stepped in with their inevitable Over bets. Carolina's played two Overs already...so I was a bit surprised at an opener of just 45 myself. Tough call on the team side. Sharps who thought Carolina might bounce back last week were disappointed. It's hard to bet Dallas at a high spread given their soft defense. The most likely scenario is that the squares bet Dallas all day Monday, and the sharps take big dog Carolina at the best price they can get and hope for the best. Those in early at 45 on the total are happy with their positions.
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