IS tonights MNF game a trap??!!

[Kaptain]

frankb03

Did they? I believe you are confusing last season with 2007. The betting public prefers favorites.

Overall last season, favorites were 121-126. Home favorites were a 78-92.




Do you really think they "tighten" their lines? How do you think they do it? IMO it's cyclical. Every few years favorites dominate. Every few years dogs dominate. All in all there's a slight edge to the dogs.

Favorites records:
2008 121-126
2007 128-114
2006 110-137
2005 142-103
2004 117-125
2003 129-118
2002 108-137
2001 114-125
2000 114-125

pay attention FRANK, you might just learn something and enhance your wagering skills and be a successful capper......

[frankb03]

Frank the public doesnt always take favorites but usually. Last year I remember a ton of public backed underdogs that covered week in and week out...

I understand what you are saying. But was there a ton of public backed dogs covering offset by the public backed favorites not covering. Over the course of the entire season it probably came close to 50/50.

IMO one can't win year in and year out by blindly fading the public.

[vols fan]

I understand what you are saying. But was there a ton of public backed dogs covering offset by the public backed favorites not covering. Over the course of the entire season it probably came close to 50/50.

IMO one can't win year in and year out by blindly fading the public.

Watch Greek.He somehow does it every year!!!!!!!!!

[Chado1]

I understand what you are saying. But was there a ton of public backed dogs covering offset by the public backed favorites not covering. Over the course of the entire season it probably came close to 50/50.

IMO one can't win year in and year out by blindly fading the public.

Blindly yea it is usually close to 50/50 with the books getting the juice. However last year seemed more like 60/40 with the public backed team regardless of dog or fav covered. I didnt track it game by game so wouldnt have the specific numbers for it.....

[Chado1]

Watch Greek.He somehow does it every year!!!!!!!!!

He doesnt simply just blindly fade the public. I know he also fades services along with the public and numerous other factors in which I am unaware....

[molta02]

Blindly yea it is usually close to 50/50 with the books getting the juice. However last year seemed more like 60/40 with the public backed team regardless of dog or fav covered. I didnt track it game by game so wouldnt have the specific numbers for it.....

certainly felt that way last year. public 'dogs' used to be an automatic fade, but last year they seemed to come in quite a bit.

again, i have no figures, but it felt that way....

[molta02]

i've learned the hard way that the whole fade the public thing is a big money burner, and will certainly leave it out of my capping this year. (or at least try to LOL)

[Chado1]

i've learned the hard way that the whole fade the public thing is a big money burner, and will certainly leave it out of my capping this year. (or at least try to LOL)

Same especially blindly thats for sure...

I also am going to be paying very little if any attention to it as using just the simply this tool and nothing else will break ya....cap the came normally I agree...if the public happens to be on it then so be it...they win some time too...if they are on the other side...than thats just a bonus however little weight is going to be put into this aswell...

There were points over the last year or two where the public would win so often I started to believe that the numbers they put on those percentage sights were complete bogus. Like where do they even come from and how can one tell the accuracy of it....

[molta02]

Same especially blindly thats for sure...

I also am going to be paying very little if any attention to it as using just the simply this tool and nothing else will break ya....cap the came normally I agree...if the public happens to be on it then so be it...they win some time too...if they are on the other side...than thats just a bonus however little weight is going to be put into this aswell...

There were points over the last year or two where the public would win so often I started to believe that the numbers they put on those percentage sights were complete bogus. Like where do they even come from and how can one tell the accuracy of it....

agree with all of what u said.

the worst part is when i talk myself out of a winner because of the 'public'. im doing my best to not even look at the percentages, but its tough not too

[Chado1]

agree with all of what u said.

the worst part is when i talk myself out of a winner because of the 'public'. im doing my best to not even look at the percentages, but its tough not too

I started to do this so often in NFL the last two years it drove me nuts....

Cap a game absolutely love it and see the public all over it and completely lay off only to see the team blow em away or win outright....

Just ridiculous....the game is determined on the surface of play...however there are several situations in which the public does get murdered but I really believe now it is so "minimal" that it should hold little to no bearing....

[Chado1]

Also another theory that sounds pretty ridiculous but could very well be true is this. The average Joe public are morons and most of them dont bet a lot of money on the games. The sharp bettors ones who have been around the block a little more I would think by average would bet MUCH larger sums of money. These are the ones who would primarily check those public percentages. Now I would have to believe that Vegas would be aware of these things and the oddmakers could potentially post total bogus fake percentages knowing the high rollers are gonna throw down heavy on the other side. The books than payout the PENNY CHANGE WAGERS to the Joe public squareville and then rake in the HEAVY MONEY LARGE SHARP WAGERS from the big shots who think they actually know what they are doing by fading the public when they dont. This being because the game is determined on the playing surface and there are so many other capping factors....

[molta02]

Also another theory that sounds pretty ridiculous but could very well be true is this. The average Joe public are morons and most of them dont bet a lot of money on the games. The sharp bettors ones who have been around the block a little more I would think by average would bet MUCH larger sums of money. These are the ones who would primarily check those public percentages. Now I would have to believe that Vegas would be aware of these things and the oddmakers could potentially post total bogus fake percentages knowing the high rollers are gonna throw down heavy on the other side. The books than payout the PENNY CHANGE WAGERS to the Joe public squareville and then rake in the HEAVY MONEY LARGE SHARP WAGERS from the big shots who think they actually know what they are doing by fading the public when they dont. This being because the game is determined on the playing surface and there are so many other capping factors....

my biggest wake up call with the 'public' was in vegas last year, monday night philly at dallas.

everybody had philly, so of course i load up on dallas. funny thing is that all these guys with philly were betting like 20 bucks, meanwhile i had a few hundred on dallas. philly covers, and all these goofs were acting like they won the lottery and were about to go tout with their 20 dollar wagers, and i was SOL.

[frankb03]

Also another theory that sounds pretty ridiculous but could very well be true is this. The average Joe public are morons and most of them dont bet a lot of money on the games. The sharp bettors ones who have been around the block a little more I would think by average would bet MUCH larger sums of money. These are the ones who would primarily check those public percentages.

One factor you are overlooking. The sharps often bet early. Usually within hours of the line being released. Vegas often responds by immediately adjusting the line. The sharps often buy back some of their wager later in the week.

Also, some monitoring sites are tracking who the public likes in the games. It doesn't mean the public is actually betting on the game.

[frankb03]

Blindly yea it is usually close to 50/50 with the books getting the juice. However last year seemed more like 60/40 with the public backed team regardless of dog or fav covered. I didnt track it game by game so wouldnt have the specific numbers for it.....

I truly believe this falls in the same category of sports bettors remembering the tough beats but forget the lucky wins. As we monitor the games week to week we'll say to ourselves "wow Joe Public won another game". But we ignore the games they lost.

[wayne1218]

You are a smart man frank. Gamblers live off emotion and Vegas loves that and always has. Perception is not always reality as some think.