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8/8/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NFL STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HALL OF FAME GAME
It's time to get back into the swing of NFL handicapping!
The Preseason officially starts Sunday Night with the Buffalo/Tennessee game on NBC. Then everyone else gets rolling in a few days:
*THURSDAY: Four games are on the slate, including Arizona/Pittsburgh on ESPN in a Super Bowl rematch, and New England/Philadelphia marking the return of Tom Brady to action.
*FRIDAY: Four more games, including two head coaching debuts in the St. Louis/NY Jets game; as well as debuts in Minnesota/Indianapolis (for the Colts) and Denver/San Francisco (for the Broncos).
*SATURDAY 8/15: Six games including 'extra week of preparation' edges for Buffalo at home against Chicago, and Tennessee at home against Tampa Bay.
*MONDAY 8/17: The final two games of the first full week including Carolina/NY Giants on ESPN.
Las Vegas and Reno aren't expecting a flood of betting action just yet. But, squares do come out of the woodwork when football is on TV, particularly pro football! Business has been quiet all summer (particularly in July). Things are about to pick up with the return of pro football.
With the NFL kicking off this weekend, today seemed like the perfect time to talk about how oddsmakers and sharps think about the Preseason.
ODDSMAKERS
Here's what's going through the mind of oddsmakers when posting Exhibition lines...
*First, DON'T GET HURT! Limits start out small...and stores will move quickly if they sense any sort of sharp action on a particular team or total. Sportsbooks will accept an overall loss on Preseason football because they know they'll make back everything and more in September when the regular seasons in both college and pro football get rolling. August action will be much bigger than July action...but much smaller than the other football months. Sportsbooks will accept a bruise, but not an injury.
*Second, when in doubt, make the home team about a two-point favorite. Most of the games are true coin flips in that it's virtually impossible to know what's going to happen. Most teams will be playing backups and trying to avoid injuries. Somebody will win, and somebody will lose. The results mirror a coin flip or black and red on a roulette wheel more than something you can really handicap. Oddsmakers start by considering every game even...then allowing 2-3 points for home field advantage (usually 2 but sometimes 3 depending on the team).
*Third, charge the squares a tax for betting on their favorite teams. This never goes away. It's the heart of what oddsmakers do. If you were with me last season, you've already mastered this principal. If you're new to the website for the new football season, you should know that the fundamental goal of oddsmakers is to make the public take the worst of it. The public has clear betting patterns. Oddsmakers will shade the line a half a point or a point in the preseason based on those. Sometimes it's as much as 1-2 points if you're talking about a public team like the Dallas Cowboys playing on TV. The heart of modern profits in this sportsbook era is to exploit the 11/10 vigorish AND any points you can squeeze out of the public. Think of the power of having 10/11 in your favor plus a free point or two! That's what sportsbooks are shooting for.
*Be on the lookout for teams who are trying to win. Oddsmakers read the same web publications that sharps do. They try to anticipate sharp moves in this area. If they don't, they move quickly once the money solves any mysteries. Let's say one of the new coaches tells his local media that winning the first game is of utmost importance. Oddsmakers might make them 5-6 instead of 2-3 as a home favorite upon hearing that news. If they missed the news, so much sharp money would come in on that side that the line would move to 5-6 anyway. In the past, oddsmakers relied mostly on the money to tell them what was happening. In recent years they've done a better job of finding out the information themselves so they can beat sharps to the punch.
Okay, those are the basics from the oddsmaking perspective. How do sharps attack that?
*They study team and head coach histories to figure out which squads may be able to turn the odds into something better than a coin flip. Tony Dungy at Indianapolis was famous for placing no priority on Preseason games. Sharps would bet against him and grind out a profit over time (sometimes the Colts won anyway because they were a talented team!).
*They look for signs that a coach may be under pressure from the owner to win a home game to boost ticket sales or generate excitement for the season. Let's say a team only plays one game in its home city during the month. Certain coaches understand they need to win THAT game while blowing off the results of the rest. You pick up a few of during the Preseason...EVERY Preseason...and it adds up over time.
*They try to beat oddsmakers to the punch on items that make the news. This used to be easy before the internet because sharps had casual information networks that allows news to travel fast. It's tougher now, but still possible.
*There aren't that many stat handicappers for preseason games. It's mostly an information approach. But, I do know some guys who study the stats of backup quarterbacks very closely to see if they can 'handicap the second half' in a way that leads to pointspread winners. If one team will have a clear edge in quarters three and four...but the full game spread is just the home team -2 or -3...then you've probably got a winner in your pocket. Some guys used to use World League stats from the games over in Europe (where NFL backups saw a lot of action). That's not possible any more since the league folded.
*They take whatever half points or points are given in the TV games involving public teams. They don't enjoy the 10/11 edge oddsmakers get by battling the public...but those free points are worth something. They matter often enough to pad the bottom line over a series of weeks or years.
*They look for unique schedule or travel situations to exploit. This used to be easier when there were games in Japan or England every year. The players revolted about the horrible travel so those games have stopped. Each season will still present the occasional Monday-Thursday situation, or a team playing on one side of the country one week and the other the next week. Sharps have a knack for figuring out when the backups are going to no-show because of travel fatigue or a lack of preparation.
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NFL STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HALL OF FAME GAME
It's time to get back into the swing of NFL handicapping!
The Preseason officially starts Sunday Night with the Buffalo/Tennessee game on NBC. Then everyone else gets rolling in a few days:
*THURSDAY: Four games are on the slate, including Arizona/Pittsburgh on ESPN in a Super Bowl rematch, and New England/Philadelphia marking the return of Tom Brady to action.
*FRIDAY: Four more games, including two head coaching debuts in the St. Louis/NY Jets game; as well as debuts in Minnesota/Indianapolis (for the Colts) and Denver/San Francisco (for the Broncos).
*SATURDAY 8/15: Six games including 'extra week of preparation' edges for Buffalo at home against Chicago, and Tennessee at home against Tampa Bay.
*MONDAY 8/17: The final two games of the first full week including Carolina/NY Giants on ESPN.
Las Vegas and Reno aren't expecting a flood of betting action just yet. But, squares do come out of the woodwork when football is on TV, particularly pro football! Business has been quiet all summer (particularly in July). Things are about to pick up with the return of pro football.
With the NFL kicking off this weekend, today seemed like the perfect time to talk about how oddsmakers and sharps think about the Preseason.
ODDSMAKERS
Here's what's going through the mind of oddsmakers when posting Exhibition lines...
*First, DON'T GET HURT! Limits start out small...and stores will move quickly if they sense any sort of sharp action on a particular team or total. Sportsbooks will accept an overall loss on Preseason football because they know they'll make back everything and more in September when the regular seasons in both college and pro football get rolling. August action will be much bigger than July action...but much smaller than the other football months. Sportsbooks will accept a bruise, but not an injury.
*Second, when in doubt, make the home team about a two-point favorite. Most of the games are true coin flips in that it's virtually impossible to know what's going to happen. Most teams will be playing backups and trying to avoid injuries. Somebody will win, and somebody will lose. The results mirror a coin flip or black and red on a roulette wheel more than something you can really handicap. Oddsmakers start by considering every game even...then allowing 2-3 points for home field advantage (usually 2 but sometimes 3 depending on the team).
*Third, charge the squares a tax for betting on their favorite teams. This never goes away. It's the heart of what oddsmakers do. If you were with me last season, you've already mastered this principal. If you're new to the website for the new football season, you should know that the fundamental goal of oddsmakers is to make the public take the worst of it. The public has clear betting patterns. Oddsmakers will shade the line a half a point or a point in the preseason based on those. Sometimes it's as much as 1-2 points if you're talking about a public team like the Dallas Cowboys playing on TV. The heart of modern profits in this sportsbook era is to exploit the 11/10 vigorish AND any points you can squeeze out of the public. Think of the power of having 10/11 in your favor plus a free point or two! That's what sportsbooks are shooting for.
*Be on the lookout for teams who are trying to win. Oddsmakers read the same web publications that sharps do. They try to anticipate sharp moves in this area. If they don't, they move quickly once the money solves any mysteries. Let's say one of the new coaches tells his local media that winning the first game is of utmost importance. Oddsmakers might make them 5-6 instead of 2-3 as a home favorite upon hearing that news. If they missed the news, so much sharp money would come in on that side that the line would move to 5-6 anyway. In the past, oddsmakers relied mostly on the money to tell them what was happening. In recent years they've done a better job of finding out the information themselves so they can beat sharps to the punch.
Okay, those are the basics from the oddsmaking perspective. How do sharps attack that?
*They study team and head coach histories to figure out which squads may be able to turn the odds into something better than a coin flip. Tony Dungy at Indianapolis was famous for placing no priority on Preseason games. Sharps would bet against him and grind out a profit over time (sometimes the Colts won anyway because they were a talented team!).
*They look for signs that a coach may be under pressure from the owner to win a home game to boost ticket sales or generate excitement for the season. Let's say a team only plays one game in its home city during the month. Certain coaches understand they need to win THAT game while blowing off the results of the rest. You pick up a few of during the Preseason...EVERY Preseason...and it adds up over time.
*They try to beat oddsmakers to the punch on items that make the news. This used to be easy before the internet because sharps had casual information networks that allows news to travel fast. It's tougher now, but still possible.
*There aren't that many stat handicappers for preseason games. It's mostly an information approach. But, I do know some guys who study the stats of backup quarterbacks very closely to see if they can 'handicap the second half' in a way that leads to pointspread winners. If one team will have a clear edge in quarters three and four...but the full game spread is just the home team -2 or -3...then you've probably got a winner in your pocket. Some guys used to use World League stats from the games over in Europe (where NFL backups saw a lot of action). That's not possible any more since the league folded.
*They take whatever half points or points are given in the TV games involving public teams. They don't enjoy the 10/11 edge oddsmakers get by battling the public...but those free points are worth something. They matter often enough to pad the bottom line over a series of weeks or years.
*They look for unique schedule or travel situations to exploit. This used to be easier when there were games in Japan or England every year. The players revolted about the horrible travel so those games have stopped. Each season will still present the occasional Monday-Thursday situation, or a team playing on one side of the country one week and the other the next week. Sharps have a knack for figuring out when the backups are going to no-show because of travel fatigue or a lack of preparation.