2009 CFB Strength of Schedule

[wayne1218]

A few months ago on my website I gave you all of the toughest schedules using the NCAA method of determining toughest schedules which is last year’s record. This method has some major flaws which I have pointed out in my Toughest Schedule article on pages 317 and 318 of the magazine over the past few years (don’t have the magazine yet? I was very proud to be the first to determine those percentages as we put it on the website two days after the last schedule was finalized.

Today I give you the actual toughest schedules for each of this year’s teams. A couple of quick examples is that in my toughest schedule ranking LSU, which was 8-5 last year and is a Top 10 team, is graded by their 2009 power rating and not last year’s 8-5 record. Using the NCAA method a team like Utah that was 13-0 last year but has just 12 returning starters is graded as a much tougher opponent due to last year’s record. Also a IAA (or FCS) team with a winning record from last year is graded to be a much tougher opponent than a team such as Illinois which was 5-7 last year, but is a team I think will be in a Jan bowl. Also Michigan is a legitimate bowl squad this year but you only get credit for playing a weak 3-9 team using last year’s record.I go much more in depth in this year’s magazine article but here is the

PHIL STEELE’S 2009 TOUGHEST SCHEDULE:




1 South Carolina
2 Florida St
3 Oklahoma
4 Mississippi St
5 Minnesota
6 Arkansas
7 Georgia
8 Virginia Tech
9 Tennessee
10 Michigan St
11 Oregon
12 Miami, Fl
13 Virginia
14 Oklahoma St
15 Auburn
16 Washington
17 USC
18 Baylor
19 Texas Tech
20 Washington St
21 LSU
22 Stanford
23 Vanderbilt
24 Arizona
25 Maryland
26 Kansas
27 Georgia Tech
28 Iowa
29 Michigan
30 Syracuse
31 Missouri
32 Indiana
33 Purdue
34 Florida
35 Nebraska
36 Notre Dame
37 Wake Forest
38 UCLA
39 Ohio St
40 Texas
41 Texas A&M
42 Illinois
43 Connecticut
44 Wyoming
45 Clemson
46 Colorado
47 Boston College
48 Arizona St
49 Louisville
50 North Carolina
51 California
52 Kentucky
53 Wisconsin
54 Pittsburgh
55 Oregon St
56 UCF
57 Memphis
58 Duke
59 West Virginia
60 Tulsa
61 Iowa St
62 NC State
63 Kansas St
64 East Carolina
65 San Jose St
66 USF
67 UAB
68 Alabama
69 Rice
70 Cincinnati
71 BYU
72 Penn St
73 New Mexico
74 UNLV
75 FlU
76 Tulane
77 Mississippi
78 Colorado St
79 Houston
80 Utah St
81 Utah
82 UTEP
83 Bowling Green
84 Marshall
85 Northwestern
86 Miami, Oh
87 Navy
88 TCU
89 Air Force
90 SMU
91 Southern Miss
92 Fresno St
93 Louisiana Tech
94 Nevada
95 E Michigan
96 New Mexico St
97 C Michigan
98 WKU
99 Toledo
100 Hawaii
101 Louisiana
102 San Diego St
103 ULM
104 Temple
105 North Texas
106 Rutgers
107 Idaho
108 Arkansas St
109 Troy
110 Buffalo
111 Middle Tenn
112 N Illinois
113 Akron
114 W Michigan
115 Ball St
116 Florida Atlantic
117 Boise St
118 Army
119 Ohio
120 Kent St

[wayne1218]

Oklahoma #3 kb. Pretty tough one there.

[mavskidd02]

There is not one team on OU's schedule besides Texas, which they have any legit shot of losing to.

[wayne1218]

There is not one team on OU's schedule besides Texas, which they have any legit shot of losing to.

3rd is 3rd man.

[wayne1218]

Going to Miami won't be easy. Also i think Okie St is going to be real good and Texas goes without saying. At Kansas is another tough game and at Texas Tech will be another preseason top 15 team on the road again. They also play at Nebraska. A lot of things can go wrong on the road and they will be tested several times.

Their schedule is no cake walk imo.

[mavskidd02]

OU and Texas are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big 12. Oklahoma is going to be a double digit favorite in every Big 12 game this year except Texas (and maybe KU, depending on the Texas game). Oklahoma dismantled the entire Big 12 last year, and the games weren't even close. You can accredit that to Oklahoma being an awesome team, I think they are good, but I think Big 12 is a "good" conference at best.

[wayne1218]

OU and Texas are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big 12. Oklahoma is going to be a double digit favorite in every Big 12 game this year except Texas (and maybe KU, depending on the Texas game). Oklahoma dismantled the entire Big 12 last year, and the games weren't even close. You can accredit that to Oklahoma being an awesome team, I think they are good, but I think Big 12 is a "good" conference at best.

They are head & shoulders above most of country mavs, not just the Big 12. They are top 5 teams, of course they will win most of those games but the challengers are still tougher than say Florida has to face this year and my point was, i can see why they are 3rd. They have a lot of tough road games.

[mavskidd02]

Their challengers are not tougher than Florida's, IMO.

[wayne1218]

Their challengers are not tougher than Florida's, IMO.

Well we know i disagree. I started a thread about it and their SOS is not even top 30 so i think my train of thought is pretty good. When you avoid Alabama and Mississippi in Conference and play cupcakes outside of it, you end of with a SOS of 34. You can think what you want but it is what it is.

[vols fan]

OU and Texas are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big 12. Oklahoma is going to be a double digit favorite in every Big 12 game this year except Texas (and maybe KU, depending on the Texas game). Oklahoma dismantled the entire Big 12 last year, and the games weren't even close. You can accredit that to Oklahoma being an awesome team, I think they are good, but I think Big 12 is a "good" conference at best.

Just like the SEC though Mavs, just cause your head and shoulders above the rest, some of those road conference games are tough as shit.Look at Georgia.They have had better teams than South Carolina every year.But boy when the dawgs go to SC in Columbia its a struggle every other year year.I think thats the point KB and Wayne are trying to make.Some of the opponents might not look good on paper but when you show up at there field with a target on your back,those games become tough as shit

[mavskidd02]

SEC - Alabama and Mississippi still twice as good as the Big 12.

It all comes down to a Big 12 vs. SEC discussion. One I really don't feel like having right now. But if championships mean anything, I think we all which the tougher conference has been lately.

[vols fan]

Their challengers are not tougher than Florida's, IMO.

Tennessee makes it to a pretty good bowl game this year if they were playing Floridas schedule

[mavskidd02]

Just like the SEC though Mavs, just cause your head and shoulders above the rest, some of those road conference games are tough as shit.Look at Georgia.They have had better teams than South Carolina every year.But boy when the dawgs go to SC in Columbia its a struggle every other year year.I think thats the point KB and Wayne are trying to make.Some of the opponents might not look good on paper but when you show up at there field with a target on your back,those games become tough as shit

I agree, all in-conference road games are tough as shit. But the quality of play and parody in the SEC far exceeds that of the Big 12. And a SEC road game for Florida is 10x tougher than an SEC road game for OU or Texas. That's MO.

[vols fan]

SEC - Alabama and Mississippi still twice as good as the Big 12.

It all comes down to a Big 12 vs. SEC discussion. One I really don't feel like having right now. But if championships mean anything, I think we all which the tougher conference has been lately.

Mavs,I'm always defending the SEC but thistime it's a no brainer.Find me 3 games on there schedule that they won't be double digit favorites.Only single digit line will be LSU IMO

[wayne1218]

I agree, all in-conference road games are tough as shit. But the quality of play and parody in the SEC far exceeds that of the Big 12. And a SEC road game for Florida is 10x tougher than an SEC road game for OU or Texas. That's MO.

The difference is, Florida is playing SEC Bottom Feeders and OU is playing the Top teams in the Big 12. Big difference. You can like the SEC all you want but it is right there on paper. The top teams in the Big 12 are better than the bottom feeders in the SEC. There isn't much scary about teams like Miss St & Ark