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Lakers now have won 3 straight ats and su w/o kobe
warriors win by 30 w/o monta ellis and only dressing 8 players
warriors win by 30 w/o monta ellis and only dressing 8 players
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Originally posted by GOLDENGREEK View Post
So yeah Greek, I was talkin' to my boys about this (and tell me what you think): the first game that Kobe comes back, that's a HUGE fade on the Lakers... And I mean GIGANTIC!2019 SEASON
NCAAF
42-34-1 +4.30 units
NFL
11-11 +2.60 unitsComment
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No tony parker - spurs win s/u in utahComment
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ABOVE SHOULD SAY ...IN denverComment
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NBA odds: Which superstars affect pointspreads the most?
By JOEL HUERTO | February 14, 2010 | 0 comments
Joel Huerto is the editor and publisher of OneManFastBreak.net and was a news editor with the Los Angeles Times.
The best and probably the simplest way to measure a franchise player’s absolute value is through point spreads.
Anticipating a line change whenever an All-Star player misses a game or two has been a long-standing tip for many bettors.
John Avello, race and sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas, theorizes that most teams can cope with a superstar’s absence in the short term. But when your best player misses multiple games, you’ll see a dramatic change in the spread.
This was the case last Wednesday when the Jazz were favored by 5 at home against the Lakers, who were without Bryant and Andrew Bynum. Avello said a healthy Bryant would have meant a swing in the spread in the Lakers’ favor.
“If a [star] player misses a game, teams can step up. But when they miss more than one, there’s a difference,” Avello said. “If you look at all the teams, you look for balance. Who can score points? That’s how you determine a guy’s worth.”
Avello used Kevin Garnett as an example in last year’s playoffs. The Celtics were able to overcome KG’s absence for the first round but were unable to sustain their run in the conference semifinals.
However, despite his advanced age, Garnett can still influence games by his mere presence. The same can be said for Steve Nash, Tim Duncan and Chauncey Billups. All three are grizzled veterans of countless playoff wars but are still ultra valuable to their respective franchises.
The Spurs still run their offense through Duncan and oddmakers are well aware when he’s not in the lineup. “His scoring is down a little bit, but he’s still a quality player. When he’s not playing, I would take that game off the board immediately,” Avello said.
So who influences the betting board the most? It is LeBron James? Is it Kobe? It’s a no-brainer to have LeBron and Kobe in the top tier of NBA superstars who can affect point spreads. But what about guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Billups and Duncan? Where do they fall in the pecking order?
With the help of Avello, Bodog senior oddsmaker Richard Gardner and Covers Expert Sean Murphy, I compiled a list of 20 All-Stars and categorized them into three tiers.
The first tier includes megastars who are worth at least 6 points to the spread. These are players who are attractive to sportsbook managers and handicappers because they have near-flawless games. I’ll call this the Megan Fox Group.
The second tier includes All-Stars who are worth 4 or 5 points to the spread. They may not get the same recognition as the upper tier, but they’re talented enough to draw a crowd. I’ll refer to them as the Scarlett Johansson Group.
And the third tier includes a mixture of young and old stars who can move the line by 2 or 3 points. They may not be as sexy as the first two groups, but if they show up at your doorstep no one is going to be disappointed. I’ll call them the Jessica Alba Group.
FIRST TIER (Megan Fox Group, players who are worth 6 points or better)
-- LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh
Avello: “I think if you give LeBron 80 percent of the shots, he might be able to score 100. It’s impossible to stop the guy. He can play the whole team by himself, I’m convinced. You don’t need to run sets with him. To me, he’s the No. 1 guy on what he means to a team. He’s the Peyton Manning of the league.”
Gardner: “Kevin Durant and Chris Bosh [are on the first tier] because of the percentage of their points compared to the teams’ total offense. Without them in the lineup, the team will struggle to score points, thus significantly inflating the spread.”
Murphy: “Oklahoma City isn’t all that deep, and Durant is a huge part of everything they do at both ends. Dirk has a lot more help than Durant, but he can still carry the Mavs on his back on any given night.”
SECOND TIER (Scarlett Johansson Group, worth 4 to 5 points)
-- Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Tim Duncan, Joe Johnson
Avello: “Billups to me is huge. He runs the show and the guys who can run the show are really important. He and Nash also make free throws, which is huge. Nash runs the show in Phoenix. It all starts at the point. He plays a lot of minutes and you lose something when he’s not on the court.”
Gardner: “Duncan leads his team in points and boards. While he is no spring chicken, he is a double-double threat every night and the offense would be lost without him. As a passing guard, it is easier for [the Hornets] to replace Chris Paul in the lineup. Even though he dishes the ball off, his supporting cast still has to make the shots. However, his defensive presence would bring him right to the top of the second tier.”
Murphy: “Chris Paul just missed so much time over the last couple of seasons that the Hornets are beginning to get used to playing without him. They've been much more competitive without him this season than they have been in recent years. Johnson no longer has to carry the Hawks. They’re a lot deeper than they’ve been in years’ past, especially since adding Jamal Crawford.”
THIRD TIER (Jessica Alba Group, worth 2 to 3 points)
-- Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Kevin Garnett, Brandon Roy, Pau Gasol, Rajon Rondo, Zach Randolph
Avello: “Gasol is important because he completes his team. Without Garnett, [the Celtics] could compete but they couldn’t win the title.”
Gardner: “The supporting cast around KG is great. The fact that Boston has another big man in the lineup to make up for his boards and a trio of skilled shooters to make up for his points, the line is not majorly affected when he is not in the lineup.”
Murphy: “Deron Williams has been injury-prone, but he's the Jazz' floor general, and they tend to struggle without him in there.”Comment
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Lakers -13 tonight without Kobe.....I'm tempted, but 13 is a lot of points.Comment
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they covered 4 straight withought himOriginally posted by shoeheadz View Post
only bet the first game or 2... This was their 5th game without himComment
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Dwayne Wade is out
Chris Bosh is outComment
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No baron davisComment
It's always noon somewhere! 
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