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You might be surprised to learn that there's a very simple process oddsmakers use for making NFL exhibition lines.
Trust your gut!
This isn't an area where you can create valid power ratings of any type. In fact, your regular season power ratings don't even matter much. Some great teams could care less about exhibition action...and they post results that might suggest they were one of the worst teams in the league. Some truly lousy teams can have great preseasons if their backups can put some points on the board against opponents who don't care.
Here's the basic process...
Assume everyone's about even...in that most teams don't care that much. The NFL is a league of parity to begin with. In the regular season, everyone cares. In the preseason, hardly anyone cares! That means you're dealing with a very tight range of expectations.
Allot 2-3 points for home field advantage, based mostly on how that team has done in the past when playing at home in the preseason. There are some teams who don't deserve anything for home field because they're just going through the motions. They've already sold out the regular season, so there's no marketing to be done by winning either. Occasionally, a situation will pop up where a home team is going to play a high energy game on national TV, and the visitor may mentally no-show. Obviously you can allot more than 2-3 points for that scenario.
Adjust a point or two for public teams. You want to charge the public a premium for betting on their favorite teams. When they bet Preseason games, that's generally who they take. You know, the public never imagines themselves winning nailbiters. They always lay those extra points, even when the original spread was too high in the first place.
Adjust based on what information you've gathered about which teams care and which teams don't. More about this in a moment.
Let the money guide you to any possible mistakes.
It's probably safe to say that the oddsmaking process in the Preseason is a "race to information" between the oddsmakers and the sharps. Both groups are trying to find out who cares, who's going to play their starters longer, who's going to see quality intensity from the backup quarterback, etc... If the oddsmakers get there first, then the number goes up before the money...and the sharps have to pass the game. If the sharps get there first, then their money drives the number up to where it should be.
The public has easy access to this kind of information through the internet. Most just don't make the effort to try and find it.
I'd like to tell you that there's a complicated, time tested, computer-perfected formula for making Preaseason lines. It just isn't true. There's no way to do that properly given the various levels of intensity across the league. The math approach works best when motivation is even for everyone. Since that's not the case in August...and since oddsmakers HAVE to put up numbers in preseason games...the gut rules the day.
How can YOU beat the numbers if the oddsmakers themselves have so little besides experience and media research to go on?
Well, for one, you have to join the information race. If you can't do that for all 32 teams, try following your favorite team or teams very closely on the internet. It's safe to say that avid Cowboys fans know their team better than the oddsmakers do...that avid Browns fans do as well. Pick a team...fanatics are well informed about them. Instead of trying to play hunches all over the board, or taking shots in TV games, just try to get the games right involving your favorite team or teams. There's no crime in passing a game either. Sometimes the options are a virtual coin flip. You don't make money betting on those.
I personally think there's a lot of money to be made by looking at coaching histories too. Some coaches care so little, while others care so much...that you can pick off the extremes and exploit your advantages. I can already tell you some veteran coaches will lose at least two games by double digits. Yet, no preseason games will have lines that high. I've got my eye on some potential road underdog spots where the visitor will care more about the result...and will likely win straight up by at least a touchdown.
And, we haven't even talked about totals yet! This has gotten very simplified in recent years. Two relatively dead teams will see a number around 32-33. If there might be a little fire in the game, maybe you'll see a 35-36. Occasionally a team makes it clear they're going to be going bombs away all month...and the number shoots higher. I know a lot of sharps who have cleaned up betting Unders the past few seasons. You should be trying to find ideal under bets so you can join them in the winner's circle. Get ready for a lot of 13-10 or 16-7 type games in the first couple of weeks. Vegas never posts numbers anywhere near that low.
If you don't believe you're up to speed with the teams right now, here's a way you can "reverse engineer" the process to figure out what the oddsmakers or sharps might be thinking.
Take the first full week of NFL Preseason games.
Pencil in a line of -2 and 33 for every home team. Don't even look at the names involved yet. Just pencil in -2 and 33 in every game.
Find the games that DON'T have that line and total, and see if you can figure out WHY!
Is a public team involved? Is a marquee playoff team from last year involved? Have you heard any talk about the head coach wanting to make a statement? Do you recall any results from prior preseasons that might explain why a known contender is getting so little respect in the line?
Continue your research by reading NFL.com, or the pro football home page at espn.com. Check out some handicapping articles at sports information sites. Then, watch the games and see what happens!
You'll find out pretty quickly which sources can be trusted for information, and which line moves deserve respect. You'll be up to speed by the second week if you're not there now. Nothing wrong with a little thinking and research before the betting begins. More squares should do this. Squares need to DOUBLE their thinking and cut their number of bets in half!
Trust your gut!
This isn't an area where you can create valid power ratings of any type. In fact, your regular season power ratings don't even matter much. Some great teams could care less about exhibition action...and they post results that might suggest they were one of the worst teams in the league. Some truly lousy teams can have great preseasons if their backups can put some points on the board against opponents who don't care.
Here's the basic process...
Assume everyone's about even...in that most teams don't care that much. The NFL is a league of parity to begin with. In the regular season, everyone cares. In the preseason, hardly anyone cares! That means you're dealing with a very tight range of expectations.
Allot 2-3 points for home field advantage, based mostly on how that team has done in the past when playing at home in the preseason. There are some teams who don't deserve anything for home field because they're just going through the motions. They've already sold out the regular season, so there's no marketing to be done by winning either. Occasionally, a situation will pop up where a home team is going to play a high energy game on national TV, and the visitor may mentally no-show. Obviously you can allot more than 2-3 points for that scenario.
Adjust a point or two for public teams. You want to charge the public a premium for betting on their favorite teams. When they bet Preseason games, that's generally who they take. You know, the public never imagines themselves winning nailbiters. They always lay those extra points, even when the original spread was too high in the first place.
Adjust based on what information you've gathered about which teams care and which teams don't. More about this in a moment.
Let the money guide you to any possible mistakes.
It's probably safe to say that the oddsmaking process in the Preseason is a "race to information" between the oddsmakers and the sharps. Both groups are trying to find out who cares, who's going to play their starters longer, who's going to see quality intensity from the backup quarterback, etc... If the oddsmakers get there first, then the number goes up before the money...and the sharps have to pass the game. If the sharps get there first, then their money drives the number up to where it should be.
The public has easy access to this kind of information through the internet. Most just don't make the effort to try and find it.
I'd like to tell you that there's a complicated, time tested, computer-perfected formula for making Preaseason lines. It just isn't true. There's no way to do that properly given the various levels of intensity across the league. The math approach works best when motivation is even for everyone. Since that's not the case in August...and since oddsmakers HAVE to put up numbers in preseason games...the gut rules the day.
How can YOU beat the numbers if the oddsmakers themselves have so little besides experience and media research to go on?
Well, for one, you have to join the information race. If you can't do that for all 32 teams, try following your favorite team or teams very closely on the internet. It's safe to say that avid Cowboys fans know their team better than the oddsmakers do...that avid Browns fans do as well. Pick a team...fanatics are well informed about them. Instead of trying to play hunches all over the board, or taking shots in TV games, just try to get the games right involving your favorite team or teams. There's no crime in passing a game either. Sometimes the options are a virtual coin flip. You don't make money betting on those.
I personally think there's a lot of money to be made by looking at coaching histories too. Some coaches care so little, while others care so much...that you can pick off the extremes and exploit your advantages. I can already tell you some veteran coaches will lose at least two games by double digits. Yet, no preseason games will have lines that high. I've got my eye on some potential road underdog spots where the visitor will care more about the result...and will likely win straight up by at least a touchdown.
And, we haven't even talked about totals yet! This has gotten very simplified in recent years. Two relatively dead teams will see a number around 32-33. If there might be a little fire in the game, maybe you'll see a 35-36. Occasionally a team makes it clear they're going to be going bombs away all month...and the number shoots higher. I know a lot of sharps who have cleaned up betting Unders the past few seasons. You should be trying to find ideal under bets so you can join them in the winner's circle. Get ready for a lot of 13-10 or 16-7 type games in the first couple of weeks. Vegas never posts numbers anywhere near that low.
If you don't believe you're up to speed with the teams right now, here's a way you can "reverse engineer" the process to figure out what the oddsmakers or sharps might be thinking.
Take the first full week of NFL Preseason games.
Pencil in a line of -2 and 33 for every home team. Don't even look at the names involved yet. Just pencil in -2 and 33 in every game.
Find the games that DON'T have that line and total, and see if you can figure out WHY!
Is a public team involved? Is a marquee playoff team from last year involved? Have you heard any talk about the head coach wanting to make a statement? Do you recall any results from prior preseasons that might explain why a known contender is getting so little respect in the line?
Continue your research by reading NFL.com, or the pro football home page at espn.com. Check out some handicapping articles at sports information sites. Then, watch the games and see what happens!
You'll find out pretty quickly which sources can be trusted for information, and which line moves deserve respect. You'll be up to speed by the second week if you're not there now. Nothing wrong with a little thinking and research before the betting begins. More squares should do this. Squares need to DOUBLE their thinking and cut their number of bets in half!
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