NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Go Daddy Bowl Mobile AL, Jan 5
Since 2004, teams that won a bowl game and go back to same bowl next year are 11-14 vs spread; Arkansas State is in this bowl game for third year in row, splitting first two visits- last year was school's first win in three bowls. ASU will have its 5th HC in five years next year- they've had an interim coach in all three bowls here. Ball State is 0-6 in bowls, losing this game to Tulsa five years ago-- they lost last three bowl games by average score of 45-20. Cardinals are 10-2, scoring 27 points in both losses- they're 6-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 3-2 in games with a single digit spread. ASU is 3-3 as an underdog, 4-3 in games with single digit spread; they covered four of last five games, after 0-6 start. Faves are 7-2-1 vs spread in this bowl the last decade; MAC teams won three of last four, but MAC teams are 0-4 in bowls this year and were favored in three of the four.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

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GoDaddy Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Ball State Cardinals (-7, 65)

Game to be played at Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama

GODADDY BOWL STORYLINES

1. John Thompson must feel like it’s Groundhog Day in Mobile, Ala. For the second consecutive season, Arkansas State’s defensive coordinator is also serving as interim head coach for the GoDaddy Bowl against Ball State on Jan. 4, this time after Bryan Harsin bolted for Boise State when that job opened up earlier this month. Last season he guided Arkansas State to a 17-13 win over Kent State after Gus Malzahn was hired at Auburn.

2. Expect plenty of offense in this matchup as Ball State comes in averaging 40.1 points with no less than 27 in every game this season. Arkansas State put up 29.7 points during the regular season, averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game.

3. Cardinals quarterback Keith Wenning is No. 5 in the nation with 3,933 passing yards this season and has the luxury of two 1,000-yard receivers in Willie Snead and Jordan Williams. Wenning will not only be trying to lead Ball State to its first Division I bowl victory in seven tries, but it will be a good opportunity to showcase his arm to NFL scouts as well.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Ball State opened -9 and is now -7. The total is up one point from the opening 63.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 23 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 15 mph.

TRENDS:

* Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 4-0 in Red Wolves last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last four games overall.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (7-5, 5-2 Sun Belt): Adam Kennedy’s decision to transfer from Utah State after last season and finish out his college career at Arkansas State has turned out to be a good one for everyone involved. Kennedy completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 2,349 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season, getting intercepted six times along the way but just twice in the last six games. He gives the Red Wolves another option in the run game as well, rushing for 514 yards and four touchdowns.

ABOUT BALL STATE (10-2, 7-1 Mid-American): Almost buried beneath a 4,000-yard passer and the pair of 1,000-yard receivers is running back Jahwan Edwards, who is 36 yards from reaching 1,000 for the second straight season. Edwards has a nose for the end zone, evident by his 38 career rushing touchdowns and is a reliable receiver out of the backfield when needed. Horactio Banks did a good job spelling Edwards but suffered a torn ACL in mid-November, leaving backup duties to freshman Teddy Williamson, who totaled 80 yards and a touchdown in the regular-season finale against Miami (Ohio).


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misfire..... never mind.

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

BCS Championship game, Pasadena, 1/6
SEC teams won last seven national title games, but won/covered last six as favorites; last underdog to win this game was Florida (+7.5) vs Ohio State seven years ago. Auburn won last five bowl games, four by exactly three points; but Malzahn is coaching his first bowl, while Fisher is 3-0 in his bowl games, winning by 9-4-21 points. Seminoles also won their last five bowls- their freshman QB Winston won Heisman and they've won 12 games by 28+ points. Boston College ran ball for 200 yards in an Sept 28 game, led early, then lost 48-34. Florida State simply hasn't had a stressful fourth quarter all season. Auburn has six wins by eight points or less; their QB is an average passer at best (he was once a Florida DB before going to JC), but they run ball- only once in their last nine games did they run ball for less than 282 yards. Tigers are 4-0 as dogs, winning three of them SU- their only loss was 35-21 (+17) at LSU- they pulled rabbits out of a hat vs Georgia/Alabama, can they do it here too? BC was only team all season to score more than 17 points vs Seminoles.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

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BCS National Championship: What bettors need to know
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Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers (+9, 67)

Game will be played at Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STORYLINES:

1. Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston leads top-ranked Florida State into battle against No. 2 Auburn in the Vizio BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 6 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. Winston because the youngest Heisman winner (19 years, 342 days) in history after a superb freshman campaign in which he passed for 3,820 yards and 38 touchdowns. Auburn got itself into the title game with a superb final three-game run that included miraculous late-game victories over Georgia and Alabama before beating Missouri in the SEC title game.

2. Both teams have prolific offenses with the Seminoles leading the nation with 90 touchdowns while ranking second in scoring at 53 points per game with a low output of 37 points. The Tigers have the nation’s top rushing attack (335.7) and scored 69 total touchdowns while tied for 11th in the nation in scoring at 40.2 points.

3. The difference in the game could be on the defensive side as Florida State has a ferocious unit that ranks first nationally in scoring defense (10.7) and passing defense (152 per game) and third in total defense (268.5). Auburn is suspect on this side of the ball, allowing 24 points per game and ranking 88th in total defense (423.5) and 104th in passing defense (260.2).

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida State opened as 9.5-point faves, were bet down to -8.5 and now sit at -9. The total opened at 65.5, was bet as high as 68 and now sits at 67.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the lows 60s with a six mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT AUBURN (12-1, 11-2 ATS): Tre Mason finished sixth in the Heisman balloting after a superb regular season that included 1,621 yards and an SEC-record 22 rushing scores. Mason forms an explosive trio with multipurpose quarterback Nick Marshall (12 passing scores, 1,023 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns) and receiver Sammie Coates (22.1 average, seven TDs). Cornerback Chris Davis – famous for providing the winning points with the game-ending missed field goal return against Alabama – has a team-high 69 tackles and teams with other defensive standouts like safety Robenson Therezie (four interceptions) and defensive end Dee Ford (8.5 sacks).

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (13-0, 11-2 ATS): The Seminoles have a plethora of skill players as three players have compiled more than 500 rushing yards and three receivers have more than 900 receiving yards. Devonta Freeman (943 yards, 13 touchdowns) is the primary back while Rashad Green had a team-best 67 receptions with Kelvin Benjamin hauling in 14 scoring receptions. Cornerback Lamarcus Joyner (five sacks, two interceptions) and outside linebacker Telvin Smith (three interceptions, team-best 75 tackles) lead a strong defense that intercepted 25 passes, including a team-high four from safety Nate Andrews.

TRENDS:

* Florida State is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
* Auburn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
* Over is 10-3 in Florida State's last 13 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Auburn's last four games overall.


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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Tale of the Tape: Florida State vs. Auburn
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The Florida State Seminoles look to cap a perfect season as they face the Auburn Tigers in the BCS National Championship game Monday night in Pasadena, California.

The Seminoles rolled to the number-one ranking and a spot in the national title game, leading the nation in points per game (53) and fewest points allowed (10.7) while outscoring opponents by a whopping 246 points over their final five contests. They'll face an upstart Tigers team that stunned then-No. 1 Alabama en route to an unlikely spot in the championship game.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

No team in college football had an offensive as explosive as the Seminoles, who scored 40 or more points in all but one of their games. That includes dominant performances against ranked teams: a 63-0 walloping of No. 25 Maryland, a 51-14 trouncing of No. 3 Clemson and a 41-14 rout of No. 7 Miami. Quarterback Jameis Winston captured the Heisman Trophy with one of the greatest seasons in school history, throwing for 3,840 yards and 38 touchdowns; the run game was also formidable, producing 5.7 yards per carry and 41 scores.

The Florida State offense has been getting more of the attention heading into Monday's championship game, but Auburn also piled up the points during a remarkable season. The Tigers failed reached the 30-point mark just twice, and scored 136 combined in consecutive victories against ranked foes Georgia, Alabama and Missouri to wedge their way into title contention. Auburn is fueled by the nation's most potent rush offense (4,364 yards, 46 TDs), with Tre Mason leading the charge with 1,621 yards and 22 scores.

Edge: Florida State


Defense

Aside from a shootout win over the Boston College Eagles on Sept. 28, the Seminoles' defense was virtually impenetrable for the entire season. No other team scored more than 17 points against the Seminoles, and Florida State limited seven opponents to seven or fewer points. The Seminoles' 3-4 scheme made life difficult for opposing defenses, leading the nation with 25 interceptions - shared by a whopping 16 players - while compiling 33 sacks.

While it didn't compete with the top-flight offense, the Tigers' defense did enough to push the team into prominence. Difficult matchups against the LSU Tigers (35 points against), Texas A&M Aggies (41) and Georgia Bulldogs (38) sullied Auburn's defensive resume, but with five other opponents held to 20 or fewer points, the Tigers proved more than capable of succeeding on the defensive end. Auburn surrendered 423.5 yards per game, 88th in the nation.

Edge: Florida State


Special Teams

Florida State had only 27 kickoff returns on the season - but made the most of them, ranking third in the nation at 26 yards per return. The Seminoles weren't nearly as effective when it came to punt returns, averaging just 10 yards on 34 attempts with a longest return of 28 yards. Kicker Roberto Aguayo was the busiest kicker in the league when it came to extra points - going 90-for-90 - but also connected on 19-of-20 field-goal opportunities, with a long of 53 yards.

Auburn's return game was impressive, as it averaged 24.1 yards per kickoff-return attempt - ranked 15th in the nation - on 36 opportunities. The Tigers fared better than the Seminoles when it came to punt-return success, averaging 11.8 yards on 29 chances with a long of 85 yards and a touchdown. Kicker Cody Parkey was virtually automatic on extra points - hitting 63-of-64 attempts - but was just 14-for-19 on field goals, including 1-for-4 on 50 yards or longer.

Edge: Florida State


Notable Quotable

"We're excited about playing Auburn ... they're dynamic, they make plays on offense, defense, special teams. (They have) won a games a lot of different ways and (are) very well coached, and it will be a great opportunity and great challenge for our team." - Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher

"We have not been, by all standards, a really good defense this year. But we always know how to play in the moment. When there's a play on the line, we've been good on third down, we've been good in the red zone, we've been good in the fourth quarter." - Tigers defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson


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