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We went 2 -2 on yesterdays selection.
U-N-L-V vs. Air Force Loss -(3 Units)
Iowa St vs. Missouri Win +(4 Units)
UAB vs. Marshall Loss -(3 Units)
Colorado State vs. B-Y-U Win +(2 Units)
Game: Colorado State vs. B-Y-U 10:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: B-Y-U +2.5 -110
Prediction: B-Y-U +2.5 -110
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: B-Y-U 24 Colorado State 14 WIN +($200) UNITS
BYU’s impressive come-from-behind win at New Mexico last week was no mirage. The Cougars had two 80 yard scoring drives and a 93 yard drive, two of them coming with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. We’re seeing signs that the Texas Tech style offense of former Red Raiders QB coach Robert Anae come to life before our eyes.
Quarterback John Beck is completing 64% of his passes and throwing for more than 350 yards per game. Just as importantly, RB Curtis Brown is gaining better than five yards per carry since the opening day debacle against Boston College, and he hasn’t fumbled once all year. This offense has potency and balance.
Colorado St was extremely lucky to emerge victorious from their test against Utah last Saturday. The Rams were held to three points for the first three quarters, but took advantage of Utes turnovers in the fourth to score three touchdowns. Sonny Lubick’s club still needed an improbable goal line stand, stopping the Utes three times from inside the one yard line to come away with the victory, thanks to a very questionable officials call on what appeared to be a touchdown.
BYU hasn’t won a home game yet this year. They blew a three TD lead in their last home game against TCU, losing on a blocked extra point in overtime. This team is primed to win one for the home crowd in Provo.
Colorado St is overrated after reeling off three straight wins against relatively weak opposition. They haven’t played on the road in over a month, and allowed 31 and 56 points in their two previous road games this season, the much weaker of the two teams defensively against both the run and the pass.
We’re getting a ton of line value thanks to Colorado St’s win streak – our numbers make BYU the favorite. And with the Rams playing without their starting center Albert Bimper once again this week, we don’t expect them to be able to outscore the Cougars. No rush to bet this one -- there's a decent possibility that this line could drift up to +3.
Play B-Y-U +2.5
Predicted Final: B-Y-U 27 Colorado State 24
Game: U-N-L-V vs. Air Force 12:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: U-N-L-V +13.5 -110
Prediction: U-N-L-V +13.5 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Air Force 42 U-N-L-V 7 Loss -($330) UNITS
This could hardly be a worse spot for the Falcons, or a better one for the Rebels. Air Force puts an inordinate amount of emphasis on the Commander in Chief trophy that goes to the winner of the games between the three service academies. Head coach Fisher DeBerry wants that trophy more than a Mountain West Conference championship, more than a bowl win, more than anything. They had won the trophy 19 times in a 21 year span, but lost by three points to Navy in each of the last two seasons. This year, the Falcons pulled out all the stops against Navy last week, holding nothing back. They led by double digits in the fourth quarter, but blew the lead and the game in the final stanza, another three point loss. That extended Air Force’s losing streak to four games.
Quarterback John Carney: “It hurts. The goals of our program are gone. I guess it's still possible to go to a bowl game, but…..” That quote just about sums it up for Air Force this week – we expect a very flat effort.
UNLV has the superior athletes – they’ve held Air Force below their season average in four of the last five meetings, capable of slowing down the Falcons option attack. And UNLV is on a definitive uptick right now after pulling of the major upset as ten point underdogs to San Diego St last week. The Rebels played their best defensive game of the season in that upset, and incredibly, true rushing numbers show UNLV as the #3 rush defense in the entire country right now, halfway through the season.
The Rebels have the offense to jet through the holes in the Air Force zone defense. QB Jarrod Jackson had “the best week of practice since he was named the starter” according to head coach Mike Sanford in his weekly radio address on Thursday night. UNLV has a major matchup problem for the smaller, slower Falcons secondary with 6’8” tight end Greg Estandia finally living up to his NFL prospect billing in his senior season. And the Rebels have the type of kicker that we want in Sergio Aguayo, who nailed a 52 yarder to tie the game in the fourth quarter last week, and another 52 yarder to win it in the closing seconds. Air Force kicker Scott Eberle has only one make from 40+ all season, and that could make a real difference ATS in this one – if the Rebels don’t win the game outright, that is!
Play U-N-L-V +13.5
Predicted Final: Air Force 27 U-N-L-V 20
Game: Iowa St vs. Missouri 2:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: Iowa St +7 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Prediction: Iowa St +7 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Explanation: 4 Units
FINAL SCORE: Iowa St 24 Missouri 27 WIN +($400) UNITS
Bad defensive teams make very poor favorites, because they can’t hold on to leads. Missouri is, without a shadow of a doubt, a bad defensive football team. The results don’t lie. The Tigers have played three non-Sun Belt foes this year. They allowed 45 points to New Mexico a team that averages 28 per game. They allowed 51 to Texas and nearly 600 yards of offense. Worth noting that both of those abysmal performances came at home. Two weeks ago, Colorado shut out Oklahoma St in Stillwater. Last week, the Tigers allowed 31 points to the Cowboys, a team that came into the game averaging less than 20 points per game against Montana St, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas St, three bottom tier weaklings. You see our point. Even with a senior leader like Brad Smith at the quarterback position, Missouri can not be trusted to lay points.
Iowa St went on the road and gave Nebraska everything they could handle two weeks ago, but they lost in double overtime. Last week, they were flat as a pancake, and a key turnover inside the two yard line turned into a 14 point swing in a shocking home loss to Baylor. Don’t look for the Cyclones to be flat here. We’ve seen this team beat up Iowa. We’ve seen them win on the road in a horrible spot at Army, and almost knock off the Huskers. Now, they get to face Missouri, in a game where revenge really means something.
Last year, Iowa St was on their way to their first ever Big 12 Championship game, leading Missouri in the fourth quarter of their regular season finale at home. But their kicker missed a field goal; the Tigers came back to send the game into overtime where they eventually won. It was a loss that Iowa St will not forget until they have avenged it.
Iowa St can stop the run, and their secondary doesn’t allow many long gainers at all, the strength of the defense. They are significantly better against both the run and the pass than Missouri is. They have major revenge. They have the better coach – Dan McCarney is worthy of respect; Gary Pinkel is barely hanging on to his job. They’ve had success in this series, beating the Tigers three times in the four years prior to last season’s meltdown.
Play Iowa St +7(Buy 1/2 pts)
Predicted Final: Iowa St 34 Missouri 28
Game: UAB vs. Marshall 5:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: UAB -3 -110
Prediction: UAB -3 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: UAB 19 Marshall 20 Loss -($330) UNITS
UAB lost a heartbreaker on a last second Hail Mary pass at home to SMU last week. That gives us plenty of line value with the Blazers here, and they visit Huntington to face a mediocre Marshall squad.
The Blazers have the better quarterback, by far. Senior Darrel Hackney is a legit NFL prospect, who has led the team to over 305 passing yards per game this season. Hackney has completed 68% of his passes, with a 9-3 TD-INT ratio. He’s got a solid ground game behind him to balance out the offense, with Corey White and Dan Burks each rushing for 4.5 yards per carry. And even with Roddy White having moved on to the NFL, Hackney has a talented receiving corps led by Reggie Lindsey. Five different receivers have caught at least ten balls already this season.
Marshall’s sophomore QB Bernard Morris has been mediocre at best in his first season as the starter. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw has exactly 275 yards on the ground for the season, gaining less than four yards per carry running behind a totally revamped offensive line with only one senior starter. There’s no comparison between these two teams on the offensive side of the ball.
There’s not much of a comparison between them defensively, either. Marshall has struggled against the mediocre passing games of Central Florida and Virginia Tech, allowing ten yards per pass attempt in those two contests. UAB has stuffed the run against every team they’ve faced except Rice, including Tennessee. Marshall needed overtime to beat the same SMU team that UAB just lost to, and they gained just 5.2 yards per pass attempt against the Mustangs, 3.0 yards per rush, while UAB out-statted them badly in both departments against the same team, even though they lost. In a down year for Conference USA, the Blazers are the class of the East. Following their defeat last week, they won’t take the Thundering Herd lightly.
Play UAB -3
Predicted Final: UAB 24 Marshall 17
We went 2 -2 on yesterdays selection.
U-N-L-V vs. Air Force Loss -(3 Units)
Iowa St vs. Missouri Win +(4 Units)
UAB vs. Marshall Loss -(3 Units)
Colorado State vs. B-Y-U Win +(2 Units)
Game: Colorado State vs. B-Y-U 10:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: B-Y-U +2.5 -110
Prediction: B-Y-U +2.5 -110
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: B-Y-U 24 Colorado State 14 WIN +($200) UNITS
BYU’s impressive come-from-behind win at New Mexico last week was no mirage. The Cougars had two 80 yard scoring drives and a 93 yard drive, two of them coming with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. We’re seeing signs that the Texas Tech style offense of former Red Raiders QB coach Robert Anae come to life before our eyes.
Quarterback John Beck is completing 64% of his passes and throwing for more than 350 yards per game. Just as importantly, RB Curtis Brown is gaining better than five yards per carry since the opening day debacle against Boston College, and he hasn’t fumbled once all year. This offense has potency and balance.
Colorado St was extremely lucky to emerge victorious from their test against Utah last Saturday. The Rams were held to three points for the first three quarters, but took advantage of Utes turnovers in the fourth to score three touchdowns. Sonny Lubick’s club still needed an improbable goal line stand, stopping the Utes three times from inside the one yard line to come away with the victory, thanks to a very questionable officials call on what appeared to be a touchdown.
BYU hasn’t won a home game yet this year. They blew a three TD lead in their last home game against TCU, losing on a blocked extra point in overtime. This team is primed to win one for the home crowd in Provo.
Colorado St is overrated after reeling off three straight wins against relatively weak opposition. They haven’t played on the road in over a month, and allowed 31 and 56 points in their two previous road games this season, the much weaker of the two teams defensively against both the run and the pass.
We’re getting a ton of line value thanks to Colorado St’s win streak – our numbers make BYU the favorite. And with the Rams playing without their starting center Albert Bimper once again this week, we don’t expect them to be able to outscore the Cougars. No rush to bet this one -- there's a decent possibility that this line could drift up to +3.
Play B-Y-U +2.5
Predicted Final: B-Y-U 27 Colorado State 24
Game: U-N-L-V vs. Air Force 12:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: U-N-L-V +13.5 -110
Prediction: U-N-L-V +13.5 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Air Force 42 U-N-L-V 7 Loss -($330) UNITS
This could hardly be a worse spot for the Falcons, or a better one for the Rebels. Air Force puts an inordinate amount of emphasis on the Commander in Chief trophy that goes to the winner of the games between the three service academies. Head coach Fisher DeBerry wants that trophy more than a Mountain West Conference championship, more than a bowl win, more than anything. They had won the trophy 19 times in a 21 year span, but lost by three points to Navy in each of the last two seasons. This year, the Falcons pulled out all the stops against Navy last week, holding nothing back. They led by double digits in the fourth quarter, but blew the lead and the game in the final stanza, another three point loss. That extended Air Force’s losing streak to four games.
Quarterback John Carney: “It hurts. The goals of our program are gone. I guess it's still possible to go to a bowl game, but…..” That quote just about sums it up for Air Force this week – we expect a very flat effort.
UNLV has the superior athletes – they’ve held Air Force below their season average in four of the last five meetings, capable of slowing down the Falcons option attack. And UNLV is on a definitive uptick right now after pulling of the major upset as ten point underdogs to San Diego St last week. The Rebels played their best defensive game of the season in that upset, and incredibly, true rushing numbers show UNLV as the #3 rush defense in the entire country right now, halfway through the season.
The Rebels have the offense to jet through the holes in the Air Force zone defense. QB Jarrod Jackson had “the best week of practice since he was named the starter” according to head coach Mike Sanford in his weekly radio address on Thursday night. UNLV has a major matchup problem for the smaller, slower Falcons secondary with 6’8” tight end Greg Estandia finally living up to his NFL prospect billing in his senior season. And the Rebels have the type of kicker that we want in Sergio Aguayo, who nailed a 52 yarder to tie the game in the fourth quarter last week, and another 52 yarder to win it in the closing seconds. Air Force kicker Scott Eberle has only one make from 40+ all season, and that could make a real difference ATS in this one – if the Rebels don’t win the game outright, that is!
Play U-N-L-V +13.5
Predicted Final: Air Force 27 U-N-L-V 20
Game: Iowa St vs. Missouri 2:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: Iowa St +7 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Prediction: Iowa St +7 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Explanation: 4 Units
FINAL SCORE: Iowa St 24 Missouri 27 WIN +($400) UNITS
Bad defensive teams make very poor favorites, because they can’t hold on to leads. Missouri is, without a shadow of a doubt, a bad defensive football team. The results don’t lie. The Tigers have played three non-Sun Belt foes this year. They allowed 45 points to New Mexico a team that averages 28 per game. They allowed 51 to Texas and nearly 600 yards of offense. Worth noting that both of those abysmal performances came at home. Two weeks ago, Colorado shut out Oklahoma St in Stillwater. Last week, the Tigers allowed 31 points to the Cowboys, a team that came into the game averaging less than 20 points per game against Montana St, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas St, three bottom tier weaklings. You see our point. Even with a senior leader like Brad Smith at the quarterback position, Missouri can not be trusted to lay points.
Iowa St went on the road and gave Nebraska everything they could handle two weeks ago, but they lost in double overtime. Last week, they were flat as a pancake, and a key turnover inside the two yard line turned into a 14 point swing in a shocking home loss to Baylor. Don’t look for the Cyclones to be flat here. We’ve seen this team beat up Iowa. We’ve seen them win on the road in a horrible spot at Army, and almost knock off the Huskers. Now, they get to face Missouri, in a game where revenge really means something.
Last year, Iowa St was on their way to their first ever Big 12 Championship game, leading Missouri in the fourth quarter of their regular season finale at home. But their kicker missed a field goal; the Tigers came back to send the game into overtime where they eventually won. It was a loss that Iowa St will not forget until they have avenged it.
Iowa St can stop the run, and their secondary doesn’t allow many long gainers at all, the strength of the defense. They are significantly better against both the run and the pass than Missouri is. They have major revenge. They have the better coach – Dan McCarney is worthy of respect; Gary Pinkel is barely hanging on to his job. They’ve had success in this series, beating the Tigers three times in the four years prior to last season’s meltdown.
Play Iowa St +7(Buy 1/2 pts)
Predicted Final: Iowa St 34 Missouri 28
Game: UAB vs. Marshall 5:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association
Line: UAB -3 -110
Prediction: UAB -3 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: UAB 19 Marshall 20 Loss -($330) UNITS
UAB lost a heartbreaker on a last second Hail Mary pass at home to SMU last week. That gives us plenty of line value with the Blazers here, and they visit Huntington to face a mediocre Marshall squad.
The Blazers have the better quarterback, by far. Senior Darrel Hackney is a legit NFL prospect, who has led the team to over 305 passing yards per game this season. Hackney has completed 68% of his passes, with a 9-3 TD-INT ratio. He’s got a solid ground game behind him to balance out the offense, with Corey White and Dan Burks each rushing for 4.5 yards per carry. And even with Roddy White having moved on to the NFL, Hackney has a talented receiving corps led by Reggie Lindsey. Five different receivers have caught at least ten balls already this season.
Marshall’s sophomore QB Bernard Morris has been mediocre at best in his first season as the starter. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw has exactly 275 yards on the ground for the season, gaining less than four yards per carry running behind a totally revamped offensive line with only one senior starter. There’s no comparison between these two teams on the offensive side of the ball.
There’s not much of a comparison between them defensively, either. Marshall has struggled against the mediocre passing games of Central Florida and Virginia Tech, allowing ten yards per pass attempt in those two contests. UAB has stuffed the run against every team they’ve faced except Rice, including Tennessee. Marshall needed overtime to beat the same SMU team that UAB just lost to, and they gained just 5.2 yards per pass attempt against the Mustangs, 3.0 yards per rush, while UAB out-statted them badly in both departments against the same team, even though they lost. In a down year for Conference USA, the Blazers are the class of the East. Following their defeat last week, they won’t take the Thundering Herd lightly.
Play UAB -3
Predicted Final: UAB 24 Marshall 17