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I took a look at the East division first, which looks to be just a three team race for the title but the West division has only two top tier teams that have a shot at the CUSA Championship game. Newly transplanted UTEP and holdover Houston should go right down to the finish as these two teams meet in early September. The West division is slightly weaker from top to bottom than its counterpart but it will be competitive with the bottom four teams having the chance to beat each other on any given day.
Texas-El Paso Miners
Fargo’s Take UTEP moves over from the WAC and the Miners have the ability to take the West in their first year in the conference. The offense was one of the best in the country last season and the pieces are in place for a repeat performance. The defense still has work to do but it won’t hurt the Miners. UTEP lost its final two games last season by a combined seven points, which makes it hungry heading into 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Jordan Palmer was a huge surprise last season and now there are even greater expectations put on his shoulders. He has the best receiving corps in the conference and the running game behind him will be solid despite the loss of Howard Jackson. The only concern is an offensive line that is very young and inexperienced on the right side.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense allowed 31.3 ppg over its final four games last season and that is going to have to improve if this team expects to get into the elite status. The Miners are average in all aspects of the defense, which can be good since there are no glaring weaknesses but it can be bad since the outside is thin, especially at cornerback.
Schedule UTEP couldn’t have a better schedule as it gets Houston, its main competition in the West, at home and completely misses Southern Miss. The non-conference portion includes games against New Mexico St. and Texas Southern, which will be wins but it’s not good for SOS rankings. Following the big game against Houston is a home game with New Mexico, the toughest non-conference opponent.
Keep an eye on… The winner of the Houston game will have the early inside track at the division title so it doesn’t get more important than that. UTEP is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite while Houston is just 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games as a road dog. One thing is certain however and that is there will be a lot of points put up on the scoreboard so keep an eye on the total.
Houston Cougars
Fargo’s Take The Cougars look to rebound from a very disappointing 2004 and they have the tools to do it. Injuries took their toll last season and even though that can be an excuse, Houston isn’t buying it and this team will be hungry for a turnaround from day one. Houston was able to move the ball last season but could not get points on the board and that is the biggest improvement needed for this year.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The offense averaged 389.7 ypg last season but put up just 20.9 ppg although that got better as the season went on. The Cougars averaged 24.7 ppg in their final six games and they hope to build from that heading into this season. The quarterback, running back and receivers are all back and it will be up to the offensive line to keep things going.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 This is not a great defense but it does get a lot of key players back and a switch to a 3-4 will play up to their strengths. This is going to be a speedy unit and it will be up to the experienced secondary to maintain consistency against a lot of good passing offenses. Stopping the run will be vital and the improvement made last season from 2003 will need to be matched again this year.
Schedule The Cougars open up with a game against Oregon that could really jumpstart the year with a win. Following an exhibition against Sam Houston, the big game at UTEP takes place, which is right before another big game against Southern Miss. Houston has a stretch of four games where three are on the road but none are very tough. The last three games of the year should all be easy wins.
Keep an eye on… Even though the first game against Oregon isn’t on its home field, it is being played in Houston at Reliant Stadium. This game could make or break the season but because it is the first, a loss shouldn’t send them spiraling. Oregon is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite and it has covered its last four as a double-digit road chalk. Houston is just 3-8 ATS when getting 10 or more points.
Tulane Green Wave
Fargo’s Take Tulane has hovered around the .500 mark the past two seasons but if the defense can make a huge improvement, this team could find itself in a bowl game once again. The Green Wave are getting some key players back from injury but if those injuries hit again, they could be in trouble since depth is a big issue. They went 4-2 in their last six games last year so the winning attitude is in place.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The biggest improvement last season was with quarterback Lester Ricard who came on strong after a slow start. He has a lot around him this season with a solid running game, great receivers and one of the best offensive lines in the conference with four senior returning starters. They averaged 27.3 ppg despite having three games of seven points or less.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 This defense is very young but a lot of these youngsters have starting experience so whatever bad happened last season should turn into good this year. The secondary is the strength with two seniors and two juniors while all three starting linebackers are seniors. The defensive front is very young with three sophomores but there are a lot of combined starts in the two deep roster.
Schedule The slate is by no means easy as a trip to Southern Miss leads things off followed by a visit from SEC team Mississippi St. Back-to-back games against Houston and UTEP are in October but the good news is that both are at home. After that, the final five games are all doable and a 3-2 finish could get them back into the postseason.
Keep an eye on… Tulane will have two weeks to prepare for Mississippi St. and a win here can give it confidence for the rest of the season and certainly help the bowl situation. The Green Wave will likely be a small chalk and they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in that role. Meanwhile Mississippi St. is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine when getting points on the road and has won just once outright in its last 22 chances.
SMU Mustangs
Fargo’s Take Not many people are expecting much from the Mustangs this season but there is a ton of experience coming back and SMU could be the surprise of the conference. Remember, this was the youngest team in the country last year and they did a lot of growing up. Winning two of their final three games last season definitely helps the confidence going into 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 11 Everyone is back on the offense and even though it finished just 107th in scoring last season, that off year will do nothing but help. The running game fought through injuries last season but is ready to go this year while the receivers have the potential to be very solid. The Mustangs will likely utilize a two-quarterback rotation, which isn’t ideal, but plays can be made.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense was atrocious last season but there is actually some optimism heading into 2005. The linebackers are the strength of the unit and the front line is very deep but there has to be more pressure on the quarterback after registering only 10 sacks last season. SMU allowed 41 or more points six times and to be successful, that needs to be cut in half if not more.
Schedule The conference schedule is in the Mustangs favor as they don’t have to play Southern Miss or Memphis and they don’t face Houston and UTEP until the final two games of the season. There are five winnable CUSA games prior to that. The non-conference schedule has the two games against Baylor and TCU both at home. This is the first year since 2001 that the home games outnumber the road games.
Keep an eye on… The first game of the season, the Mustangs host Baylor and if they can pull out a win in the opener, it could start a domino effect for the entire season. SMU is getting four points from Bears and it’s interesting to note that the Mustangs are 12-5 ATS as a non-conference home dog while Baylor hasn’t been a road chalk since early 2000.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Fargo’s Take There are a lot of questions surrounding this team heading into the season and if Tulsa gets the correct answers, it could go back to a bowl game. However, those questions are answered yet and until they are, this is a bottom of the division type team. There are plenty of starts on both sides but filling in the holes around them is the biggest answer needed.
Returning Starters on Offense – 5 There is no experience at quarterback as both players fighting for the job didn’t take a single snap last season. The good news for this potential early season problem is that there is a solid running game that they can rely on along with an All-American at tight end. The offensive line should be healthy enough to get the job done at both run blocking and pass protection.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 Stopping the run was the biggest problem in 2004 as the Golden Hurricane allowed 210.6 ypg. That will need to improve considerably and very quickly as the first four opponents this year all finished 22nd or better in rushing offense a season ago. The defense allowed 35 or more points six times in its final eight games.
Schedule The schedule is a killer and a 0-4 start is quite likely. Minnesota and Oklahoma are sure losses to start the season while games against North Texas and Memphis follow. A split can be obtained against the latter two but until the run can be stopped, it won’t happen. Tulsa gets Houston at home but must travel to Southern Miss and UTEP as four of the final six games are on the road.
Keep an eye on… The first road game of the season is at Oklahoma and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be pretty. Tulsa is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as a road dog and it is an amazing 3-15 ATS on grass over that span. This is the first meeting in three years but Oklahoma has won the last two meetings in 2002 and 2001 by a combined score of 95-0.
Rice Owls
Fargo’s Take The Owls get my vote for bottom of the pack in the West division mainly because they have so little coming back on offense and most of that is with the offensive line which is vital for a rushing team. The switch to a new conference could help since teams aren’t familiar with the offense but six of the 11 teams on their schedule faced Rice last season.
Returning Starters on Offense – 4 There will be some new looks to the triple option this year as it will be more spread out than in the past which could open up some passing downfield. The quarterback situation isn’t dire but it isn’t the best either as sophomore Joel Armstrong will remain the starter despite dropping all five games he started last season. The line will need to gel quickly.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense brings back seven starters from last year and while the unit ranked 104th in scoring defense, it ranked just 50th in total defense. A lot of the points came off turnovers and special teams so there is potential on this side. The front six is strong but will need to do a better job of getting to the quarterback as the defense had just 13 sacks last season.
Schedule Rice travels to UCLA and Texas right out of the gate and if that isn’t bad enough, four of the first five games are all on the road. The Owls make that up with four of the next five at home but by then, the season could be done as the confidence will be gone. Southern Miss and Memphis are not on the schedule and they do get UTEP at home, a team they lost to by just a touchdown last season in El Paso.
Keep an eye on… The Owls first home game of the season is against Navy and they will be in double revenge mode after a one point road loss last season and a 32-point home loss two years ago. Chances are the Owls will get lambasted by UCLA and Texas and could come into the Navy game as a dog. Rice is 15-2-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a home pup.
This is Part 12 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.
Texas-El Paso Miners
Fargo’s Take UTEP moves over from the WAC and the Miners have the ability to take the West in their first year in the conference. The offense was one of the best in the country last season and the pieces are in place for a repeat performance. The defense still has work to do but it won’t hurt the Miners. UTEP lost its final two games last season by a combined seven points, which makes it hungry heading into 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Jordan Palmer was a huge surprise last season and now there are even greater expectations put on his shoulders. He has the best receiving corps in the conference and the running game behind him will be solid despite the loss of Howard Jackson. The only concern is an offensive line that is very young and inexperienced on the right side.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense allowed 31.3 ppg over its final four games last season and that is going to have to improve if this team expects to get into the elite status. The Miners are average in all aspects of the defense, which can be good since there are no glaring weaknesses but it can be bad since the outside is thin, especially at cornerback.
Schedule UTEP couldn’t have a better schedule as it gets Houston, its main competition in the West, at home and completely misses Southern Miss. The non-conference portion includes games against New Mexico St. and Texas Southern, which will be wins but it’s not good for SOS rankings. Following the big game against Houston is a home game with New Mexico, the toughest non-conference opponent.
Keep an eye on… The winner of the Houston game will have the early inside track at the division title so it doesn’t get more important than that. UTEP is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite while Houston is just 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games as a road dog. One thing is certain however and that is there will be a lot of points put up on the scoreboard so keep an eye on the total.
Houston Cougars
Fargo’s Take The Cougars look to rebound from a very disappointing 2004 and they have the tools to do it. Injuries took their toll last season and even though that can be an excuse, Houston isn’t buying it and this team will be hungry for a turnaround from day one. Houston was able to move the ball last season but could not get points on the board and that is the biggest improvement needed for this year.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The offense averaged 389.7 ypg last season but put up just 20.9 ppg although that got better as the season went on. The Cougars averaged 24.7 ppg in their final six games and they hope to build from that heading into this season. The quarterback, running back and receivers are all back and it will be up to the offensive line to keep things going.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 This is not a great defense but it does get a lot of key players back and a switch to a 3-4 will play up to their strengths. This is going to be a speedy unit and it will be up to the experienced secondary to maintain consistency against a lot of good passing offenses. Stopping the run will be vital and the improvement made last season from 2003 will need to be matched again this year.
Schedule The Cougars open up with a game against Oregon that could really jumpstart the year with a win. Following an exhibition against Sam Houston, the big game at UTEP takes place, which is right before another big game against Southern Miss. Houston has a stretch of four games where three are on the road but none are very tough. The last three games of the year should all be easy wins.
Keep an eye on… Even though the first game against Oregon isn’t on its home field, it is being played in Houston at Reliant Stadium. This game could make or break the season but because it is the first, a loss shouldn’t send them spiraling. Oregon is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite and it has covered its last four as a double-digit road chalk. Houston is just 3-8 ATS when getting 10 or more points.
Tulane Green Wave
Fargo’s Take Tulane has hovered around the .500 mark the past two seasons but if the defense can make a huge improvement, this team could find itself in a bowl game once again. The Green Wave are getting some key players back from injury but if those injuries hit again, they could be in trouble since depth is a big issue. They went 4-2 in their last six games last year so the winning attitude is in place.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The biggest improvement last season was with quarterback Lester Ricard who came on strong after a slow start. He has a lot around him this season with a solid running game, great receivers and one of the best offensive lines in the conference with four senior returning starters. They averaged 27.3 ppg despite having three games of seven points or less.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 This defense is very young but a lot of these youngsters have starting experience so whatever bad happened last season should turn into good this year. The secondary is the strength with two seniors and two juniors while all three starting linebackers are seniors. The defensive front is very young with three sophomores but there are a lot of combined starts in the two deep roster.
Schedule The slate is by no means easy as a trip to Southern Miss leads things off followed by a visit from SEC team Mississippi St. Back-to-back games against Houston and UTEP are in October but the good news is that both are at home. After that, the final five games are all doable and a 3-2 finish could get them back into the postseason.
Keep an eye on… Tulane will have two weeks to prepare for Mississippi St. and a win here can give it confidence for the rest of the season and certainly help the bowl situation. The Green Wave will likely be a small chalk and they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in that role. Meanwhile Mississippi St. is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine when getting points on the road and has won just once outright in its last 22 chances.
SMU Mustangs
Fargo’s Take Not many people are expecting much from the Mustangs this season but there is a ton of experience coming back and SMU could be the surprise of the conference. Remember, this was the youngest team in the country last year and they did a lot of growing up. Winning two of their final three games last season definitely helps the confidence going into 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 11 Everyone is back on the offense and even though it finished just 107th in scoring last season, that off year will do nothing but help. The running game fought through injuries last season but is ready to go this year while the receivers have the potential to be very solid. The Mustangs will likely utilize a two-quarterback rotation, which isn’t ideal, but plays can be made.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense was atrocious last season but there is actually some optimism heading into 2005. The linebackers are the strength of the unit and the front line is very deep but there has to be more pressure on the quarterback after registering only 10 sacks last season. SMU allowed 41 or more points six times and to be successful, that needs to be cut in half if not more.
Schedule The conference schedule is in the Mustangs favor as they don’t have to play Southern Miss or Memphis and they don’t face Houston and UTEP until the final two games of the season. There are five winnable CUSA games prior to that. The non-conference schedule has the two games against Baylor and TCU both at home. This is the first year since 2001 that the home games outnumber the road games.
Keep an eye on… The first game of the season, the Mustangs host Baylor and if they can pull out a win in the opener, it could start a domino effect for the entire season. SMU is getting four points from Bears and it’s interesting to note that the Mustangs are 12-5 ATS as a non-conference home dog while Baylor hasn’t been a road chalk since early 2000.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Fargo’s Take There are a lot of questions surrounding this team heading into the season and if Tulsa gets the correct answers, it could go back to a bowl game. However, those questions are answered yet and until they are, this is a bottom of the division type team. There are plenty of starts on both sides but filling in the holes around them is the biggest answer needed.
Returning Starters on Offense – 5 There is no experience at quarterback as both players fighting for the job didn’t take a single snap last season. The good news for this potential early season problem is that there is a solid running game that they can rely on along with an All-American at tight end. The offensive line should be healthy enough to get the job done at both run blocking and pass protection.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 Stopping the run was the biggest problem in 2004 as the Golden Hurricane allowed 210.6 ypg. That will need to improve considerably and very quickly as the first four opponents this year all finished 22nd or better in rushing offense a season ago. The defense allowed 35 or more points six times in its final eight games.
Schedule The schedule is a killer and a 0-4 start is quite likely. Minnesota and Oklahoma are sure losses to start the season while games against North Texas and Memphis follow. A split can be obtained against the latter two but until the run can be stopped, it won’t happen. Tulsa gets Houston at home but must travel to Southern Miss and UTEP as four of the final six games are on the road.
Keep an eye on… The first road game of the season is at Oklahoma and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be pretty. Tulsa is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as a road dog and it is an amazing 3-15 ATS on grass over that span. This is the first meeting in three years but Oklahoma has won the last two meetings in 2002 and 2001 by a combined score of 95-0.
Rice Owls
Fargo’s Take The Owls get my vote for bottom of the pack in the West division mainly because they have so little coming back on offense and most of that is with the offensive line which is vital for a rushing team. The switch to a new conference could help since teams aren’t familiar with the offense but six of the 11 teams on their schedule faced Rice last season.
Returning Starters on Offense – 4 There will be some new looks to the triple option this year as it will be more spread out than in the past which could open up some passing downfield. The quarterback situation isn’t dire but it isn’t the best either as sophomore Joel Armstrong will remain the starter despite dropping all five games he started last season. The line will need to gel quickly.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense brings back seven starters from last year and while the unit ranked 104th in scoring defense, it ranked just 50th in total defense. A lot of the points came off turnovers and special teams so there is potential on this side. The front six is strong but will need to do a better job of getting to the quarterback as the defense had just 13 sacks last season.
Schedule Rice travels to UCLA and Texas right out of the gate and if that isn’t bad enough, four of the first five games are all on the road. The Owls make that up with four of the next five at home but by then, the season could be done as the confidence will be gone. Southern Miss and Memphis are not on the schedule and they do get UTEP at home, a team they lost to by just a touchdown last season in El Paso.
Keep an eye on… The Owls first home game of the season is against Navy and they will be in double revenge mode after a one point road loss last season and a 32-point home loss two years ago. Chances are the Owls will get lambasted by UCLA and Texas and could come into the Navy game as a dog. Rice is 15-2-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a home pup.
This is Part 12 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.