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2004/2005 NFL Playoff Record/ 9-7, +10.10 Units
Last Week: 3-2, +11.0 Units
5***** Philadelphia -4 (WIN)
5***** Patriots/Steelers OVER 34 (WIN)
3*** New England Patriots -2 (WIN)
1* Half/NE EVEN (LOSS)
1* NE 3rd Q EVEN (LOSS)
5***** 4 Team/13 pt. Super Teaser: NE +10, ATL UNDER 49, AFC +8.5, OVER 31 (2-0, PENDING)
10********** AFC -3.5 Futures Wager (PENDING)
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SUPER BOWL XXXVIIII PLAYS:
7******* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year/Patriots and Eagles OVER 47 (Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total)
5***** New England Patriots -6.5 (The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games)
5***** New England PK/OVER 40 (2 Team, 7 Point Teaser) (The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays)
PROP BETS:
1* Defensive or Special teams TD? / YES, +156
1* Any Score in the first 6:18? / YES, -120
1* Patriots Score 1st, Win the Game? /YES, -127
1* 1st Score will be a TD? / YES, -160
1* Total Field Goals / OVER 3.5, +131
1* Total Team Points / New England OVER 27.5, -103
1* Total Pass Completions / OVER 41.5, -125
1* New England -10.5, +161
1* New England -13.5, +208
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Remember the days of the 80's and early 90's when the NFC won and covered nearly every year? The Bills were largely responsible for many AFC failures, but the Cowboys, Giants, Niners and Redskins were the monoliths that blew teams away. Well, now the AFC has taken over the balance of power in the NFL. Everything in sports, life and fashion is cyclical and the strongest teams are in the AFC currently. They have dominated in inter-conference play of late and it has carried over in to this one game "winner take all" event, otherwise known as the biggest single sporting event of the entire year.
Probably the biggest thing to realize about the Super Bowl is that the talent and concentration level are magnified in this game, and the team with the edge in each of these usually dominates. Spreads are thus set higher than they would be in your typical Sunday regular season game scenario. The same normally goes for totals. To illustrate these points, the total number of points scored in the 38 previous Super Bowls averages 46.1, significantly more than the average season game, and the victory margin has been 15.8 PPG. The winning team is averaging 31.0 PPG, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6. The SU winner of the Super Bowl is 32-3-3 against the point spread. If you pick the winner, you likely will cash your bet. What that means is don't bet a team that you think will lose and cover. It's about a 10% chance bet. The most recent history has been a bit skewed... Carolina of last season is one of the three that lost and covered. Also San Fran/Cincy in 1982 and again in 1989... the pushes were Dallas/Steelers in 1976 (-4), Green Bay/New England in 1997 at -14 and the Rams and Titans in 2000 at -7 as well. The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark, and the team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half. Don't panic if you bet the OVER and the game starts slowly, as 53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games. The highest scoring quarter is the second quarter, 503 points (13.2 PPG). Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes. The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless. Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 31-7 SU & 28-7-3 ATS. Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS. Teams that win the time of possession battle are 28-10 SU & 27-8-3 ATS. Finally, teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories (RYds, PYA, Tos, TOP) are 32-1 SU & 29-3-1 ATS... and teams that win all four categories are 21-0 SU & 20-0-1 ATS.
These two have faced each other fairly recently, in September 2003 at Philadelphia. The Patriots defense pressured McNabb into four turnovers and got a big game from Brady as the Patriots rolled to a 31-10 win. Coach Belichick and Romeo Crennel had designed a game plan that used numerous blitzes to control and shut down McNabb and the Eagles offense. McNabb lost two fumbles, was sacked seven times (those wanting to bet the SB Prop of UNDER 5 sacks should bear this in mind) and threw a pair of interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He completed just 18 of 46 passes for 186 yards and was booed on his home field. Meanwhile, Brady completed 30 of 44 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns, two going to TE Fauria.
McNabb's first trip to the Super Bowl can be attributed to him finally becoming a strong pocket passer who occasionally runs, instead of the other way around. His ability to throw accurately out of the pocket from short drops has enabled him to complete 64.4 percent of his passes in in these playoffs. Having T.O. during the regular season gave McNabb the confidence to have his first 64% completion season, a seven-percent improvement over his career mark. Being able to maintain the same percentage in the playoffs without Owens at full strength is huge and very meaningful. New England has taken away the strengths of opposing offenses all year long, other than the Halloween hiccup at Pittsburgh and the Dolphins MNF Game of the Year, when Brady had a very rare meltdown in the 4th quarter.
Just like that Super Bowl game a year ago, Belichick and Crennel can pull out the entire assortment of blitzes because neither Mitchell or Todd "Alligator Arms" Pinkston pose a real threat at wide receiver. Even if Terrell Owens plays 6 1/2 weeks after ankle surgery (I hope he does, as that favors a line drop in the Pat's favor and value for NE bettors), he will not be close to 100 percent. I think it's hype to force NE to game plan for him but with two weeks to prepare, Belichick and Crennel will not be fooled and will be ready. New England's strength on defense are it's linebackers, who can control the middle and underneath zones. Bruschi, McGinest and Vrabel will make sure that Westbrook is covered at all times out of the backfield. That will put extreme pressure on McNabb to shoulder a heavy burden. He will need to scramble for first downs to keep one of the linebackers occupied. The Eagles lost tight end Chad Lewis, an effective red-zone option and excellent receiver, due to injury in the NFC championship game. I think his loss is a bigger issue than not having Owens, as far as the overall ability of the offense. While Smith is their best pass-catching tight end, he will likely be matched up against Rodney Harrison, the league's best strong safety.
Each year, Tom Brady has become more of a down field passer and as I mentioned in the writeup before the Colts game, Brady threw only 43 less passes on the season than Manning. The play-action options to Corey Dillon have opened up more big plays down field. This play action set up Deion Branch's 1st quarter 60-yard catch against the Steelers. The Dillon presence improved Brady's yards per attempt by a full yard to 7.8 yards a throw and his 52 regular season completions of 20 yards or more were his career best. New England will be able to throw on Philly. They have shown that no one wide receiver can be taken away from Brady and shut down the offense. Even Dillon has become a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, after an entire season where he caught less than ten passes. Take away Troy Brown, he has Branch. Take away Fauria, he has Graham and even Vrabel! You can not shut down the Patriot passing game with the sets that Charlie Weis puts in, and Brady does not make mistakes in big games. All you heard in last year's game was how the Panther defense was the best in football and their defensive line would be on Brady all afternoon. They never laid a hand on him, and NE was working with a patchwork offensive line, playing two free agents and a rookie.
Defensively I will look for the Pats to double Jevon Kearse with the tight end. That makes the 1 on 1 matchup between Todd Light and Derrick Burgess a key to this game. Burgess was huge last week stopping T.J. Duckett on key short yard plays on 3rd down. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will mix his blitzes in to disrupt Tom Brady's timing and rhythm. Since Jeremiah Trotter moved back into the middle linebacker spot during the season, Philadelphia has been much improved against the run, taking almost 40 yards a game of their average over the last half of the season. The Eagles will need to hold Dillon under 80 yards, because if he is running for 125+, that not only keeps the Eagles offense off the field, but it creates big problems in the passing game for the Philly defense. The Eagles will rely on the three Pro Bowlers in their secondary with Lito Sheppard, strong safety Michael Lewis and free safety Brian Dawkins to contain New England's fleet set of receivers, six of which had over 20 catches on the year. Dawkins is one of the tougher and more aggressive safeties and can send a message with some big hits to combat New England's slants over the middle. Philadelphia made waves with the signing of T.O. to give McNabb another weapon and jump start the passing game. It worked, but the real need was in the run defense. Until Jeremiah Trotter was put into the lineup, Philly was a dismal 27th in rush D. From week 10 on, after the whipping that Jerome Bettis and Pittsburgh put on the Eagles, Trotter's presence at MLB and adding bulk along the line with Hollis Thomas and Sam Rayburn brought the Eagles up to 11th and cut the average rushing yards per game down by more than 40. With the Pat's offensive line back at full strength, look for a battle for control at the line of scrimmage to dictate what kind of game we see. If NE can get Dillon into some quick hits through the defense, that will open up the passing game as Brian Dawkins and Trotter have to help in run support and Brady goes deep off play action for scores.
Let's compare the Patriots performance of the last two seasons to the two year performances of the winningest teams in Super Bowl history. The 2003/04 Patriots were the deadliest big-game team ever in the long history of professional football. The Patriots won three more games and surpassed the 1985-86 Bears to take sole claim to the second-best record over a two-year span in the Super Bowl era. Only the 1972/1973 Dolphins have a better record. The Patriots tied the 1997-98 Broncos for the most victories over a two-year span. New England added two more quality wins to its resume. Only one team in NFL history, the 1978-79 Steelers, beat more than 16 quality opponents in a two-year span (defined as a team with a winning record). The Steelers went 17-5 against teams with winning records. The 2003-04 Patriots are 19-1 against quality opponents that meet the same standard. Following their win over the Steelers in the AFC title game, the Patriots are the only club on the list to beat an opponent that went 15-1 in the regular season. Only two other teams among the 10 winningest in the Super Bowl era beat an opponent that posted a 14-2 regular-season record. The 1992 Cowboys beat the 14-2 49ers in the NFC title game. The 1998 Broncos beat the 14-2 Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.
I also compared overall records and records against quality opponents. Our updated lists appear below, and we also added two more categories. We looked at the scoring differential each of these legendary teams posted against quality opponents, and we looked at how these quality opponents performed against all other opponents. If the Patriots win Super Bowl XXXIX, they'll have recorded more wins in a two-year period than any team in history. The Patriots are the deadliest big-game team in the Super Bowl era. The 1972-73 Dolphins have the second best record but played the fewest quality opponents. Finally, we wanted to know how all these quality opponents fared against the rest of the league. This would tell us which teams played the toughest collection of quality opponents. Basically, we calculated the collective record of all quality opponents. We then removed the games played against our teams in question. For example, New England's quality opponents were a combined 221-99 over the past two seasons. However, they were 1-19 against New England. Therefore, they went 220-80 against the rest of the league. New England went 19-1 (.950) against teams that had a .733 winning percentage against the rest of the league. The Broncos went 12-4 (.750) against teams that had a .750 winning percentage against the rest of the league. These numbers show that the 2003-04 Patriots are among the very best teams in NFL history and statistically speaking, would be a great match against any of these legendary teams. They also show that the 2003-04 Patriots are clearly the most dominant team of the young salary-cap era. The Patriots have been favored each game this season. They have won 31 of their last 33 games and are 25-7-1 (78 percent) against the spread. They have won two of the past three Super Bowls. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 9-1 in playoff games with his only defeat coming when he coached the old Cleveland Browns.
Even though the Eagles went UNDER the total at a 12-5-1 clip this year and that New England has played under in three of its last four, this one goes OVER. While New England's defense gets most of the publicity, it is the offense that makes this team go. The Pats own one of the most consistent offenses in the NFL. They've been held to fewer than 21 points just three times this year and have cracked 30 points on six occasions. Six different Patriots caught at least 20 passes this year, making it next to impossible to zero in on even a couple receivers in pass coverage. With two weeks to plan an offensive strategy, I don't see how New England's offense isn't going to get its points. The Pats are probably going to slug it out early with the running game, though New England won't be shy about attacking Philly's secondary. The Eagles are going to bring creative blitzes all day. Brady is the best in the business at picking up pass rushers. Extra blitzers mean more open field in the secondary, which means Brady will be able to find those gaps. You might have been impressed with how well they ran the ball last week against Atlanta, but the Falcons smallish defensive line was manhandled at the line of scrimmage. New England is a big and physical defense and will not give up those chunks of yards on the ground. I don't think they will be able to rack up that kind of yardage against New England but they should be able to do enough to keep the Pats from teeing off against the passing game. Philly has scored at least 27 points 12 times this year. I don't think the Eagles will put up that many points against New England's defense, yet I don't think they'll be completely shut down. Andy Reid and his coaching staff have come up with some interesting offensive strategies over the past few weeks and I think the Eagles will make enough plays to help push this one over. Here is something to consider as well: The Pats have scored first in all but one game this year, the regular season finale victory over San Francisco. It is the reason why the Pats are favorites of -156 to score first when they take the field in Jacksonville next Sunday, and it is also the reason this may be one of the best props on the board for Super Bowl XXXIX, despite the big chalk. Even though their opponents (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) had the first possession in both playoff games, the Pats defense held them off the scoreboard long enough to give the offense a chance to get within range. They blanked Pittsburgh for 13 ½ minutes last week and it took Indianapolis a full half to finally kick their only field goal of the game.
Much can be made of the Eagles big win and domination of Atlanta last week, and the return of Terrell Owens will give Philly backers even more hope. They have EIGHT Pro Bowlers, compared to only FOUR for New England, and two of the Patriots Pro Bowlers are on special teams! Here's the bottom line: A better team from a better conference with far more experience in a game that rarely is determined by the point spread. No player has come in and dominated against New England so I don't see McNabb or T.O. making a big statement this Sunday. If you give the Patriot coaching staff two weeks to break down the Eagles, I promise you that they will have a solution to any threat that may arise. The boys from Massachusetts are 4-0 against the spread vs. the NFC while the Eagles are 0-4 vs. the AFC. I will take a group that everyone knows is the best TEAM in pro football and who has consistently blown away the point spread all season long, going 13-3-2 even considering that Vegas gives them tougher numbers to overcome based on the public perception of the defending Super Bowl Champs. The Eagles were only able to post a 11-7 ats mark this year. Please understand how big that is, when you are always favored and still beat the number regularly. If you go back over time, you will find that the team with the better ATS record during the season has won and covered this game over 75% of the time. I expect a statement game from New England in the final go-round for the greatest coaching nucleus of the modern era. With the future staff in doubt, watch for Belichick, Weis and Crennel to pull out all the stops in their final game together and win going away. Too many options for New England and too much defensively. Patriots 37, Eagles 20.
Last Week: 3-2, +11.0 Units
5***** Philadelphia -4 (WIN)
5***** Patriots/Steelers OVER 34 (WIN)
3*** New England Patriots -2 (WIN)
1* Half/NE EVEN (LOSS)
1* NE 3rd Q EVEN (LOSS)
5***** 4 Team/13 pt. Super Teaser: NE +10, ATL UNDER 49, AFC +8.5, OVER 31 (2-0, PENDING)
10********** AFC -3.5 Futures Wager (PENDING)
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ________________________________________
SUPER BOWL XXXVIIII PLAYS:
7******* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year/Patriots and Eagles OVER 47 (Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total)
5***** New England Patriots -6.5 (The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games)
5***** New England PK/OVER 40 (2 Team, 7 Point Teaser) (The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays)
PROP BETS:
1* Defensive or Special teams TD? / YES, +156
1* Any Score in the first 6:18? / YES, -120
1* Patriots Score 1st, Win the Game? /YES, -127
1* 1st Score will be a TD? / YES, -160
1* Total Field Goals / OVER 3.5, +131
1* Total Team Points / New England OVER 27.5, -103
1* Total Pass Completions / OVER 41.5, -125
1* New England -10.5, +161
1* New England -13.5, +208
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Remember the days of the 80's and early 90's when the NFC won and covered nearly every year? The Bills were largely responsible for many AFC failures, but the Cowboys, Giants, Niners and Redskins were the monoliths that blew teams away. Well, now the AFC has taken over the balance of power in the NFL. Everything in sports, life and fashion is cyclical and the strongest teams are in the AFC currently. They have dominated in inter-conference play of late and it has carried over in to this one game "winner take all" event, otherwise known as the biggest single sporting event of the entire year.
Probably the biggest thing to realize about the Super Bowl is that the talent and concentration level are magnified in this game, and the team with the edge in each of these usually dominates. Spreads are thus set higher than they would be in your typical Sunday regular season game scenario. The same normally goes for totals. To illustrate these points, the total number of points scored in the 38 previous Super Bowls averages 46.1, significantly more than the average season game, and the victory margin has been 15.8 PPG. The winning team is averaging 31.0 PPG, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6. The SU winner of the Super Bowl is 32-3-3 against the point spread. If you pick the winner, you likely will cash your bet. What that means is don't bet a team that you think will lose and cover. It's about a 10% chance bet. The most recent history has been a bit skewed... Carolina of last season is one of the three that lost and covered. Also San Fran/Cincy in 1982 and again in 1989... the pushes were Dallas/Steelers in 1976 (-4), Green Bay/New England in 1997 at -14 and the Rams and Titans in 2000 at -7 as well. The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark, and the team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half. Don't panic if you bet the OVER and the game starts slowly, as 53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games. The highest scoring quarter is the second quarter, 503 points (13.2 PPG). Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes. The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless. Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 31-7 SU & 28-7-3 ATS. Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS. Teams that win the time of possession battle are 28-10 SU & 27-8-3 ATS. Finally, teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories (RYds, PYA, Tos, TOP) are 32-1 SU & 29-3-1 ATS... and teams that win all four categories are 21-0 SU & 20-0-1 ATS.
These two have faced each other fairly recently, in September 2003 at Philadelphia. The Patriots defense pressured McNabb into four turnovers and got a big game from Brady as the Patriots rolled to a 31-10 win. Coach Belichick and Romeo Crennel had designed a game plan that used numerous blitzes to control and shut down McNabb and the Eagles offense. McNabb lost two fumbles, was sacked seven times (those wanting to bet the SB Prop of UNDER 5 sacks should bear this in mind) and threw a pair of interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He completed just 18 of 46 passes for 186 yards and was booed on his home field. Meanwhile, Brady completed 30 of 44 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns, two going to TE Fauria.
McNabb's first trip to the Super Bowl can be attributed to him finally becoming a strong pocket passer who occasionally runs, instead of the other way around. His ability to throw accurately out of the pocket from short drops has enabled him to complete 64.4 percent of his passes in in these playoffs. Having T.O. during the regular season gave McNabb the confidence to have his first 64% completion season, a seven-percent improvement over his career mark. Being able to maintain the same percentage in the playoffs without Owens at full strength is huge and very meaningful. New England has taken away the strengths of opposing offenses all year long, other than the Halloween hiccup at Pittsburgh and the Dolphins MNF Game of the Year, when Brady had a very rare meltdown in the 4th quarter.
Just like that Super Bowl game a year ago, Belichick and Crennel can pull out the entire assortment of blitzes because neither Mitchell or Todd "Alligator Arms" Pinkston pose a real threat at wide receiver. Even if Terrell Owens plays 6 1/2 weeks after ankle surgery (I hope he does, as that favors a line drop in the Pat's favor and value for NE bettors), he will not be close to 100 percent. I think it's hype to force NE to game plan for him but with two weeks to prepare, Belichick and Crennel will not be fooled and will be ready. New England's strength on defense are it's linebackers, who can control the middle and underneath zones. Bruschi, McGinest and Vrabel will make sure that Westbrook is covered at all times out of the backfield. That will put extreme pressure on McNabb to shoulder a heavy burden. He will need to scramble for first downs to keep one of the linebackers occupied. The Eagles lost tight end Chad Lewis, an effective red-zone option and excellent receiver, due to injury in the NFC championship game. I think his loss is a bigger issue than not having Owens, as far as the overall ability of the offense. While Smith is their best pass-catching tight end, he will likely be matched up against Rodney Harrison, the league's best strong safety.
Each year, Tom Brady has become more of a down field passer and as I mentioned in the writeup before the Colts game, Brady threw only 43 less passes on the season than Manning. The play-action options to Corey Dillon have opened up more big plays down field. This play action set up Deion Branch's 1st quarter 60-yard catch against the Steelers. The Dillon presence improved Brady's yards per attempt by a full yard to 7.8 yards a throw and his 52 regular season completions of 20 yards or more were his career best. New England will be able to throw on Philly. They have shown that no one wide receiver can be taken away from Brady and shut down the offense. Even Dillon has become a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, after an entire season where he caught less than ten passes. Take away Troy Brown, he has Branch. Take away Fauria, he has Graham and even Vrabel! You can not shut down the Patriot passing game with the sets that Charlie Weis puts in, and Brady does not make mistakes in big games. All you heard in last year's game was how the Panther defense was the best in football and their defensive line would be on Brady all afternoon. They never laid a hand on him, and NE was working with a patchwork offensive line, playing two free agents and a rookie.
Defensively I will look for the Pats to double Jevon Kearse with the tight end. That makes the 1 on 1 matchup between Todd Light and Derrick Burgess a key to this game. Burgess was huge last week stopping T.J. Duckett on key short yard plays on 3rd down. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will mix his blitzes in to disrupt Tom Brady's timing and rhythm. Since Jeremiah Trotter moved back into the middle linebacker spot during the season, Philadelphia has been much improved against the run, taking almost 40 yards a game of their average over the last half of the season. The Eagles will need to hold Dillon under 80 yards, because if he is running for 125+, that not only keeps the Eagles offense off the field, but it creates big problems in the passing game for the Philly defense. The Eagles will rely on the three Pro Bowlers in their secondary with Lito Sheppard, strong safety Michael Lewis and free safety Brian Dawkins to contain New England's fleet set of receivers, six of which had over 20 catches on the year. Dawkins is one of the tougher and more aggressive safeties and can send a message with some big hits to combat New England's slants over the middle. Philadelphia made waves with the signing of T.O. to give McNabb another weapon and jump start the passing game. It worked, but the real need was in the run defense. Until Jeremiah Trotter was put into the lineup, Philly was a dismal 27th in rush D. From week 10 on, after the whipping that Jerome Bettis and Pittsburgh put on the Eagles, Trotter's presence at MLB and adding bulk along the line with Hollis Thomas and Sam Rayburn brought the Eagles up to 11th and cut the average rushing yards per game down by more than 40. With the Pat's offensive line back at full strength, look for a battle for control at the line of scrimmage to dictate what kind of game we see. If NE can get Dillon into some quick hits through the defense, that will open up the passing game as Brian Dawkins and Trotter have to help in run support and Brady goes deep off play action for scores.
Let's compare the Patriots performance of the last two seasons to the two year performances of the winningest teams in Super Bowl history. The 2003/04 Patriots were the deadliest big-game team ever in the long history of professional football. The Patriots won three more games and surpassed the 1985-86 Bears to take sole claim to the second-best record over a two-year span in the Super Bowl era. Only the 1972/1973 Dolphins have a better record. The Patriots tied the 1997-98 Broncos for the most victories over a two-year span. New England added two more quality wins to its resume. Only one team in NFL history, the 1978-79 Steelers, beat more than 16 quality opponents in a two-year span (defined as a team with a winning record). The Steelers went 17-5 against teams with winning records. The 2003-04 Patriots are 19-1 against quality opponents that meet the same standard. Following their win over the Steelers in the AFC title game, the Patriots are the only club on the list to beat an opponent that went 15-1 in the regular season. Only two other teams among the 10 winningest in the Super Bowl era beat an opponent that posted a 14-2 regular-season record. The 1992 Cowboys beat the 14-2 49ers in the NFC title game. The 1998 Broncos beat the 14-2 Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.
I also compared overall records and records against quality opponents. Our updated lists appear below, and we also added two more categories. We looked at the scoring differential each of these legendary teams posted against quality opponents, and we looked at how these quality opponents performed against all other opponents. If the Patriots win Super Bowl XXXIX, they'll have recorded more wins in a two-year period than any team in history. The Patriots are the deadliest big-game team in the Super Bowl era. The 1972-73 Dolphins have the second best record but played the fewest quality opponents. Finally, we wanted to know how all these quality opponents fared against the rest of the league. This would tell us which teams played the toughest collection of quality opponents. Basically, we calculated the collective record of all quality opponents. We then removed the games played against our teams in question. For example, New England's quality opponents were a combined 221-99 over the past two seasons. However, they were 1-19 against New England. Therefore, they went 220-80 against the rest of the league. New England went 19-1 (.950) against teams that had a .733 winning percentage against the rest of the league. The Broncos went 12-4 (.750) against teams that had a .750 winning percentage against the rest of the league. These numbers show that the 2003-04 Patriots are among the very best teams in NFL history and statistically speaking, would be a great match against any of these legendary teams. They also show that the 2003-04 Patriots are clearly the most dominant team of the young salary-cap era. The Patriots have been favored each game this season. They have won 31 of their last 33 games and are 25-7-1 (78 percent) against the spread. They have won two of the past three Super Bowls. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 9-1 in playoff games with his only defeat coming when he coached the old Cleveland Browns.
Even though the Eagles went UNDER the total at a 12-5-1 clip this year and that New England has played under in three of its last four, this one goes OVER. While New England's defense gets most of the publicity, it is the offense that makes this team go. The Pats own one of the most consistent offenses in the NFL. They've been held to fewer than 21 points just three times this year and have cracked 30 points on six occasions. Six different Patriots caught at least 20 passes this year, making it next to impossible to zero in on even a couple receivers in pass coverage. With two weeks to plan an offensive strategy, I don't see how New England's offense isn't going to get its points. The Pats are probably going to slug it out early with the running game, though New England won't be shy about attacking Philly's secondary. The Eagles are going to bring creative blitzes all day. Brady is the best in the business at picking up pass rushers. Extra blitzers mean more open field in the secondary, which means Brady will be able to find those gaps. You might have been impressed with how well they ran the ball last week against Atlanta, but the Falcons smallish defensive line was manhandled at the line of scrimmage. New England is a big and physical defense and will not give up those chunks of yards on the ground. I don't think they will be able to rack up that kind of yardage against New England but they should be able to do enough to keep the Pats from teeing off against the passing game. Philly has scored at least 27 points 12 times this year. I don't think the Eagles will put up that many points against New England's defense, yet I don't think they'll be completely shut down. Andy Reid and his coaching staff have come up with some interesting offensive strategies over the past few weeks and I think the Eagles will make enough plays to help push this one over. Here is something to consider as well: The Pats have scored first in all but one game this year, the regular season finale victory over San Francisco. It is the reason why the Pats are favorites of -156 to score first when they take the field in Jacksonville next Sunday, and it is also the reason this may be one of the best props on the board for Super Bowl XXXIX, despite the big chalk. Even though their opponents (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) had the first possession in both playoff games, the Pats defense held them off the scoreboard long enough to give the offense a chance to get within range. They blanked Pittsburgh for 13 ½ minutes last week and it took Indianapolis a full half to finally kick their only field goal of the game.
Much can be made of the Eagles big win and domination of Atlanta last week, and the return of Terrell Owens will give Philly backers even more hope. They have EIGHT Pro Bowlers, compared to only FOUR for New England, and two of the Patriots Pro Bowlers are on special teams! Here's the bottom line: A better team from a better conference with far more experience in a game that rarely is determined by the point spread. No player has come in and dominated against New England so I don't see McNabb or T.O. making a big statement this Sunday. If you give the Patriot coaching staff two weeks to break down the Eagles, I promise you that they will have a solution to any threat that may arise. The boys from Massachusetts are 4-0 against the spread vs. the NFC while the Eagles are 0-4 vs. the AFC. I will take a group that everyone knows is the best TEAM in pro football and who has consistently blown away the point spread all season long, going 13-3-2 even considering that Vegas gives them tougher numbers to overcome based on the public perception of the defending Super Bowl Champs. The Eagles were only able to post a 11-7 ats mark this year. Please understand how big that is, when you are always favored and still beat the number regularly. If you go back over time, you will find that the team with the better ATS record during the season has won and covered this game over 75% of the time. I expect a statement game from New England in the final go-round for the greatest coaching nucleus of the modern era. With the future staff in doubt, watch for Belichick, Weis and Crennel to pull out all the stops in their final game together and win going away. Too many options for New England and too much defensively. Patriots 37, Eagles 20.