Tweet
2004/2005 NFL Playoff Record/ 6-5, -.90 Unit
Last Week's Results:
4.5**** New England Patriots -1 /WIN
4**** Philadelphia/Minnesota UNDER 48 /WIN
3.5*** Philadelphia -8 /WIN
Halftimes/ 1*Patriots +.5 /WIN
1* UNDER 22.5 /WIN
______________________________________________
5***** Philadelphia -4 (-123 @ Pinnacle)
(Possibly adding a play on the Total later)
While some say that halftime adjustments are overrated, did you notice how many points the four losing teams scored in the third quarter last weekend? Minnesota, St. Louis and Indianapolis scored zero, while the Jets scored only seven on a defensive touchdown. Someone did something right at halftime. How important was it to get out to an early lead? All four teams that won scored first. How important are passing yards? The four losing quarterbacks all threw for more yards than the four winning quarterbacks! How's that for interesting? How important is defense to winning the divisional round? Every team that had a higher-ranked defense than the team they played beat the lower-ranked defense.
I am going to throw out the results of the Falcons last game against the Rams because of several factors. Most importantly, the Rams were the WORST team in the playoffs in regard to record, turnover differential, stats, defense and special teams. Only their domination over the Seattle Seahawks got them within sniffing distance of the second round, where they were exposed for what they are. What we also learned last weekend was that dome teams will likely always struggle in adverse weather conditions outdoors, particularly in the playoffs. We have another chance to prove that theory this weekend in Philadelphia. I wouldn't go crazy thinking that the Falcons win over St. Louis showed you anything. In two meetings this season, the St. Louis defense allowed 569 rushing yards by Atlanta.The Rams have the absolute worst set of linebackers in the league, they were manhandled up front allowing huge runs from scrimmage, their special teams, who rank last in the NFL, were gashed for huge returns including a TD and their -24 turnover margin finally did them in. So another dome team that impressed against weak competition indoors now leaves the friendly confines and 72 degree temps to play much stiffer competition outdoors on the road (See "Indianapolis Colts"). The Falcon defense got a lot of press over the first half of the season, but their improvement over 2003 went in reverse during the final eight games, particularly against the run. In the first half, Atlanta allowed 3.8 yards per carry, a number that includes the 56-10 loss to Kansas City in which the Chiefs ran for 271 yards. Over the second half, the Falcons allowed 4.3 yards per carry. Atlanta is much better at stopping the run than the pass, where they ranked 22nd in the league. Philly is likely to spread the backfield and put Westbrook out wide as a receiver if the Falcons shut down the limited Eagle running game. Westbrook will provide serious matchup problems when split out of the backfield if Atlanta tries to cover him with a linebacker or safety, and if they put a cornerback on him, it will create one on one opportunities for the Philly wideouts.The Falcons apply almost all their pressure with just the front four and they need to get pressure without bringing a blitz that will leave the Eagles receivers in single coverage. The Philadelphia offensive game plan will force the Falcons to cover Westbrook in the passing game. He had 73 receptions for 703 yards and six touchdowns in the regular season and added another five catches and a TD last Sunday. Coach Andy Reid will use Westbrook in the slot, even flanked wide as a receiver, and the Atlanta staff will have to come up with a different way to cover him. Westbrook's 73 receptions were 14 more than the entire Atlanta backfield this season. The Falcons aren't apt to change strategy now. Westbrook as a receiver figures to provide a big challenge for the Atlanta linebackers and safeties. The running of Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb must be of some concern to the Atlanta defense, too, but he is not nearly the threat that Vick poses. Over the past three seasons, McNabb has just 133 more rushing yards total than Vick gained in 2004 alone. If both teams are able to shut down the run and force the offenses to pass, the advantage goes to the Eagles. This season, Atlanta was the 30th ranked passing offense in the league while Philadelphia was 7th. With the loss of Terrell Owens, neither team has exceptional wide recievers... unless you ask Freddie Mitchell for his opinion after last week. The man has two solid playoff games including the famous 4th and 26 against Green Bay last year. Atlanta's (not so) Peerless Price is the team's 2nd leading receiver but is nowhere near a real threat in any one area of the field. He was barely halfway to 1,000 yards in receptions.
Eagles offensive lineman John Runyan's health in this game will be a key as he tweaked a knee ligament on one of the final plays against Minnesota when he got pushed over a pile. His blocking responsibility will be Falcons left end Patrick Kerney, who had 13 sacks during the season. Atlanta led the NFL in sacks with 48, and the Eagles were only one behind that number, yet these teams rush the QB in very different ways. Of the Falcons' 48 sacks, 36½ of them were rung up by defensive linemen, including 32½ by the team's starting front four. While the Falcons rarely blitz, the Eagles will come from every manner conceivable. The Eagles didn't have any defender with more than 7½ sacks but had 17 players with at least a half-sack each.
The way that Philadelphia approaches this game offensively will be based largely on the weather, but in fair conditions they have several advantages in the passing game. While the Eagles wideouts are down a notch since T.O. went out, they are still vastly superior to Atlanta's everywhere except at the tight end position. The Eagles' combination of L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis are not as important as Alge Crumpler in terms of the big play, but both are excellent possession receivers and solid in locating open spaces. The safeties will likely be key to covering the tight ends and that gives the edge to the Eagles. The Falcons safeties, Cory Hall and Bryan Scott, are nothing special and will give up the big play. Top draft pick DeAngelo Hall is a talented nickel back, but he is a rookie and missed a good part of the season where he would have gained much-needed game experience. Both of Philadelphia's first two touchdowns against Minnesota came as linebackers were trying to do the job of cornerbacks and safeties who had taken themselves out of the play.
Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is a master of exotic blitz angles and has been successful at containing a running quarterback. In the Eagles' 20-6 victory over Atlanta in the 2002 playoffs, Michael Vick ran for only 30 yards on six carries. In the Eagles' 35 games since that playoff matchup including postseason games, quarterbacks have carried 90 times for only 288 yards, only 3.2 yards per carry against the Philadelphia defense. Those quarterbacks have just six rushes of 10 yards or more against the Eagles. Of the quarterbacks who had three or more carries against the Eagles in the past 35 games, 16 totaled 10 yards or less. The Eagles limited Culpepper to 25 yards on five attempts in Sunday's win. Vick can be blitzed, as evidenced by the fact he was sacked 46 times in 2004, or 1 sack for every 7.98 dropbacks. For his career, Vick has gone down once every 9.76 dropbacks, an very high ratio. Vick had seven runs of 20 or more yards during the regular season and broke a 47 yarder on the third play of the game against the Rams, who couldn't stop the Falcons running game at all. Against St. Louis, Michael Vick ran for 119 yards and passed for a net of 70 yards. Vick's favorite receiver is Crumpler, who didn't catch a ton of balls but had the highest ratio of TD's to receptions on the team. He had 48 receptions on the year to lead the team, with 6 touchdowns. Eagles free safety Brian Dawkins is one of the best in the league at his position and a Pro Bowler. Philadelphia wants to match up Dawkins against Crumpler on passing downs.
The Eagles plan will be to force Vick to read the Philadelphia front seven to see if there is a blitz coming and from where. Vick is capable of completing less than 50% of his passes but still winning a game with his feet. Todd Weiner is as much the focus for the Falcons offensive line as is Runyan for Philly. Weiner will face Jevon Kearse, who had just 7½ sacks this season but whose ability to attack and compress a pocket supersedes that number. Kearse will often line up and simply attempt to beat the blocker upfield. He is capable of creating the big play like a sack accompanied by a strip, at any time. Both teams have solid offensive lines, although the Eagles have been forced to scramble more this season because of injuries. The Eagles used six different starting combinations, mostly because of instability at guard. Atlanta has used three combinations but has been playing the same group for the past 15 games. No question that the key to this game is that the Eagles must limit Vick's scrambles for positive yardage and keep the Falcons #1 rushing game under control, forcing Vick to rely on his arm to win. Easier said than done for sure, but Philly has been more successful against Vick than any other NFL team. If Vick has to throw over 20 passes, then the solid Eagle secondary will have interception opportunities. Vick threw 14 TD against 12 INT's this year, one of the worst percentages in the league. He doesn't have a "go-to" guy outside of Crumpler and Dawkins can limit him. Peerless Price had 45 catches with Dez White grabbing 30 and Brian Finneran 23 balls. The Falcons didn't come anywhere close to a 1,000 yard receiver.
Dirk Johnson is probably no one you ever heard of, but he will play an important role in this game as he is the Eagles punter. Why would a punter factor in this game? Allen Rossum put on a punt return show against the Rams and is one of the best in the game. Rossum ran back one 68 yards for a touchdown. He brought back the next one to the Rams' 32, setting up another TD. He brought back the one after that to the St. Louis 13, setting up a field goal. The score went from 21-14 to 38-17, largely because those three straight St. Louis punts ended in disaster. Three returns, on which the Falcons averaged 50.7 yards per return. Rossum ranked second in the NFC (and the NFL) this season among punt returners, with a 12.4-yard average, but his 21.6-yard kickoff-return average ranked 15th in the conference. Johnson has to either punt it away from him or get good enough hang time to prevent any potential big play. He averaged 42.1 per punt in the regular season, which was only 17th in the league. Special teams have played a big role in every postseason game this year so far and I expect it to continue in this game. The advantage goes to Philly in placekicking as well. Eagles David Akers is truly one of the premier long field-goal artists in the game. He converted 17 of 21 attempts from over 40 yards in 2004 and also has enough leg strength to manufacture touchbacks on kickoffs. Jay Feely, the Falcons' kicker, is a bit of an enigma. He has a strong leg but struggles with consistency. He converted 18 of 23 field goal attempts this season but connected on just 3/6 from beyond 40 yards.
The Falcons listed zero players on their injury report last week and suffered no serious casualties in the victory over the Rams on Saturday night. Terrell Owens remains sidelined with his broken leg and won't return for the Eagles until the Super Bowl, and even that might not be realistic to expect. Philadelphia played without starting weak-side linebacker Mark Simoneau, a former Falcons draft choice, on Sunday and his status for next weekend is uncertain. Philadelphia did get back a few players who had been injured in the final weeks of the season, notably right defensive end Derrick Burgess, and that certainly helped its front seven rotation.
I would like to include the all-important catagory of turnover ratio, meaning giveaways/takeaways. All four remaining playoff teams were in the positive in turnovers, but Atlanta had the fewest at +2. The Eagles meanwhile were +6 and New England was +9 and Pittsburgh was the leader at +11. When doing my game breakdowns, I look at several factors, each bearing different weight in my process. In utilizing as many handicapping tools as possible over the past fourteen years, I discovered a site that has some exceptional team factors that create templates based on weighted statistics over the season. These numbers form complete breakdowns on teams strengths and weaknesses. I have pasted the link below and while it may be too technical, boring and/or overwhelming for many people, I have used these numbers as a part of my research to come up with my final analysis and selections over the last few seasons. Hopefully you will find it helpful in your own handicapping as well. My point is, the data is broken down into six key categories: Estimated Wins, Total Efficiency, Weighted DVOA (explained at the website), Offensive & Defensive Efficiency and Special Teams.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php
In these six important categories, Philadelphia ranks in the top 5 in four of the six, while Atlanta is not ranked in any of these key numbers within the top five. In fact, the Falcons rank 24th in team efficiency, 19th in weighted DVOA and only rank as high as 6th in one category... special teams. Some additional interesting numbers, using the 52 Super Bowl teams since 1978, which was the beginning of the 16-game schedule and more liberal passing rules...
None of the 52 Super Bowl teams lost its final two games (Both Atlanta & Philadelphia were in this group, so this streak will be broken)
Since 1978, only eight of the 50 teams who lost a conference title game made it to the Super Bowl the following season (Philadelphia)
Ranked in regular-season top 10 in fewest yards allowed: 35 of 52 Super Bowl teams (Philadelphia 10th, Atlanta 14th)
Ranked in regular-season top 10 in most yards gained: 38 of 52 Super Bowl teams (Philadelphia 9th, Atlanta 20th)
Top 10 in yards per passing attempt: 39 teams (Philadelphia 6th, Atlanta 17th)
Teams with a Pro Bowl quarterback: 35 (67.3%) (Both, but McNabb was named starter based on votes)
28 of 52 Super Bowl teams had home-field advantage as the No. 1 seed (Philadelphia)
Total Super Bowl teams with home-field advantage in conference title game: 34 of 52, 65.4% (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh)... Only 11 teams have won a conference title game on the road over a team with better record.
The team that has better passing yard averages per attempt is 89-30 straight up & 83-30-6 ATS. Clearly related to the rushing yards statistic, this team is the more balanced team and can pass more efficiently because of a competent ground game. This trend has really done well in the last three years, going 25-4 SU & 24-4-1 ATS.
So what is my point to all this? The Eagles have had better success against Vick and the Falcon offense than nearly every team in the NFL and I will risk my bet that Philly DC Jim Johnson can come up with a scheme to shut down or reasonably control them again. With inclement weather, possibly including snow in the forecast, Atlanta will be hard pressed to beat the Eagles through the air against their Pro Bowl defensive secondary. Another warm weather dome based team will travel to an frigid outdoor stadium and be held in check while the Eagles offense will have enough opportunities in the passing game to make plays downfield and run just enough to make play action a factor. The Philadelphia Eagles will finally get over the hump and break the NFC Championship game jinx, moving on to their first Super Bowl since 1981. Philadelphia Eagles 26, Atlanta Falcons 13.
________________________________________
5***** Patriots/Steelers OVER 34, (-111@Pinnacle)
New England completely shut down the high-flying Colts last week and now have to travel to The Ketchup Bottle to face the Steelers. Somewhat surprisingly, the Patriots are a road favorite against the #1 seeded Steelers, only the 10th time since 1973 that there has been a home dog in the NFL Playoffs, and I was unable to find when there has ever been a home dog that was a #1 seed! That is actually six points, as the Steelers would normally get three for having the home field. In the 10 previous times that there was a home underdog, the home team is 6-3-1 against the pointspread, but only 3-3-1 ats against a non-division team. Since 1991 the stat is 1-1-1 ats in this exact situation.This is a rematch of an Oct. 31 meeting won by the Steelers 34-20, which snapped the Patriots' 21-game winning streak. By winning that game, the Steelers earned the right to play this game at home. New England's loss in that game came at a time when it was losing momentum, likely under the pressure of continuing their record streak. Now they're picking up momentum, as they seem to do at this time every year.The Patriots were without Corey Dillon that day, so this is a different New England team in some ways. New England was only able to run six times for a grand total of 5 yards, forcing Brady to throw it up 43 times. The most dominating stat had to be time of possession, 42:58 to 17:02 in favor of the Steelers, who had 417 yards in total offense to 248 for the Patriots. Brady was sacked four times, intercepted twice, and fumbled once. Kevin Faulk also fumbled. A very uncharacteristic performance for the Pats, who seldom look ruffled. They are an extension of their head coach, solid and unflappable.
New England was the second-most efficient passing offense of 2004, right behind the Colts. Indianapolis has by far the best offense in the NFL, KC included, but the Patriots have developed into a top five offense as well. Since the Patriots first won the Super Bowl in 2001, the perception of Tom Brady was an efficient QB who didn't put up big numbers and wouldn't turn the ball over, playing within himself and the offensive concept. As I mentioned last week, the Patriots only threw 42 less passes than the Colts this year, less than three per game. The Power Ratings favor the Chiefs and Vikings over the 2004 season but when you consider strength of schedule (also remember that the AFC East played the AFC North, and both divisions are filled with strong defenses), New England was the second-most efficient passing offense, right behind the Colts. The Pats are also far better balanced now that they have an actual running game with the addition of Corey Dillon. Dillon’s skills at picking up the blitz will be an important part of negating the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, which is the pass rush. Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis and Dillon (and you could also make a strong case for P. Holmes) may be the NFL's most valuable assets offensively as far as giving their teams balance and taking pressure off of the passing games.
Offensively, the Patriots will try to pick on Steelers cornerback Willie Williams, who now starts ahead of Chad Scott, who missed most of the season with a knee injury and is now a third cornerback. Williams has done a pretty good job all season, but he is 34 and only 5-9. The Jets went straight at him in the passing game, trying to match him up deep with Justin McCareins, who is about six inches taller. Williams broke up a couple of plays on deep passes, but Pennington threw at him so often that Williams ended up leading the team with 11 tackles. The Patriots will likely try it as well with David Givens or Deion Branch. Williams is a little bit shorter than Givens, but both Givens and Branch have good speed. New England has shown a greater desire to unload downfield this year and will try to go long on Williams. On the other side of the field, cornerback Deshea Townsend is wearing a cast to protect broken bones in his hands, so he won't be able to do much more than break up passes thrown in his direction. The Steelers use the zone blitz to bring pressure and force QB's to throw before they are ready, taking some heat off the corners and safeties. Troy Polamalu gets many of his picks off this pressure blitz when balls are thrown up for grabs in his area during the heavy rush.
The newest trend in the copycat NFL is that many teams are switching from the 4-3 to the 3-4 defensive front. Of the six teams that used the 3-4 this season, three finished ranked in the top six in scoring defense: Pittsburgh (first), New England (second) and Baltimore (sixth). San Diego, another 3-4 team, was 11th in scoring defense. Pittsburgh (first), Baltimore (sixth) and New England (ninth) also finished ranked in the top 10 in total defense. The Steelers use the 3-4 defense exclusively while the Patriots start in it, and they mix in other fronts as well. I expect the Pats to take a page from the Jets scheme last week, where they put three down linemen and five linebackers/safeties in the box to pressure the run and force Big Ben to throw against three defenders. Burress was a non-factor for the most part, because Ben couldn't get the ball downfield. The Steelers were forced to go away from their normal ratio of 61% running plays and until the end of the 4th quarter, they were split almost evenly between pass and run. This is not the type of offense that the Steelers want to play, as limiting the responsibility of Roethelisberger in the passing game is what enabled them to control the clock and play stern defense.
Big Ben wasn't himself against the Jets and how he bounces back from one of his worst games as a starter is key. He overthrew a number of passes and seemed to have trouble gripping the ball even though this was his fifth game (yes, 5th) using gloves on his right hand because of the cold. He was 17 of 30 passing for 181 yards and had two passes intercepted, one for a touchdown and another in the final two minutes of regulation that could have resulted in a game-winning field goal for the Jets. Subtracting for sacks and interception returns, Ben Roethlisberger netted only 61 yards passing. The Patriots are masters of confusing veteran quarterbacks and they will do everything in the world to confuse rookie Roethlisberger even more. Though the Patriots reserve most of their defensive trickery until the game is secure in the second half, the Patriots will try to fool Roethlisberger with blitzes and fake blitzes. Roethlisberger is a classic play action passer and the Patriots usually do well against these types of quarterbacks. If New England puts eight in the box and can slow down Bettis and Staley, the game falls on the shoulders of a rookie QB who hasn't had to take on that responsibility during the course of the year. The pointspread variation in this game is largely based on the perception that the Pats will use stifling defense to confuse Big Ben and force the same mistakes that he made against the Jets. NO OTHER WAY can a playoff team be favored on the road against the top seed, especially in a difficult stadium. I also believe that the line has been adjusted for the prescence of Corey Dillon being active in this game. The big problem for the Steelers is their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. They are settling for more field goals than touchdowns and that could cost them against the Pats. In their last seven games, they have had nine touchdowns and 17 field goals in 30 red zone opportunities. They've had to resort to trick plays like shovel passes to wide receivers and halfback option passes by Bettis to get touchdowns. Now that NE has seen this stuff on film, I don't see that stuff working as well this time. Ken Whisenhunt is in his first season as offensive coordinator of the Steelers. How well he adjusts his play calls to the peculiar schemes and stunts that New England will throw at his rookie QB will determine how the Steelers offense moves the ball, controls the game and puts TD's on the board.
The Colts lack of size at receiver allowed the Pats to play more physical and stop the deep balls from Peyton, but the Steelers are bigger and just as physical as the Pats. The new rules on five yard contact will likely play a role in this game due to the size and toughness of Hines Ward and Burress. Ward is one of the most physical blocking receivers in football and he gets Roethlisberger out of trouble by getting open. Plaxico Burress is a tall, physical receiver as well and he will be hard to match up against for the injury-depleted Patriots secondary. Burress is 6-5 and the tallest Patriots cornerback is 5-11. The Patriots have survived all season with a depleted secondary, even going on the road against the Rams, who have one of the more creative passing games in football and they completely shut them down. Against the Colts, they didn't need to move Eugene Wilson to cornerback from his spot at safety and they somehow managed with Randall Gay, Earthwind Moreland and Troy Brown (!), the wide receiver, against the top passing game in the NFL. The Patriots have survived most of the season without Ty Law and Tyrone Poole, and they didn't have Richard Seymour against the Colts. During the 2004 season, teams completed only 58 % of their passes and had an ugly 75.2 QB rating against the Patriots. How do they do it? Belichick and Romeo Crenel keep coming up with gameplans that defy logic, especially when you consider what they are using for spare parts! The Patriots had problems stopping the run early in the season, but they finished strong and only allowed 98.3 yards a game and 3.9 yards a carry down the stretch. Very few teams are as disciplined as Pitt when it comes to the running game, however. They keep busting on you continually with Bettis and Staley until your defensive front wears down... then they break a long one up the middle or use play action passes to beat you over the top with Burress and Ward deep. The Pittsburgh offensive line is solid and will be sending Faneca and Hartings to the Pro Bowl. Fullback Dan Kreider is a bruiser who leads into the hole and takes a pounding, allowing Bettis to gain positive yards. Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson and the other Patriots linebackers will be colliding with Kreider all day long. The Steelers are one of the most physical teams offensively at the point of attack in the whole NFL. It will be interesting to see what Crenel will come up with to shut down the Pitt running game this time. The question is, if both teams have the running game restricted by the opposing defense, who can do more in the passing game? New England, without question. Roethlisberger had a decent game against the Patriots last time, but come playoff time the Patriots defense gets even better.
In the win over the Patriots on Oct. 31, it was a Halloween nightmare for New England as the Steelers jumped to an early 21-3 lead in the first quarter and that changed the way the rest of the game was played. Brady was forced to pass the ball 45 times and threw two interceptions. That is not the game NE wants to play this week. Brady could never get the Pats closer than 14 points, faced a nasty pass rush and was sacked four times. The time of possession was 43 minutes for the Steelers and only 17 for the Patriots. There was no running game without Dillon and we don't know how much difference he will make this week... Blitzburgh is powerful at the line of scrimmage and even with the loss of Casey Hampton, Chris Hoke has played tremendously as his replacement. It likely wasn't Kevin Faulk's fault that NE was unable to do anything in the run game as much as it was that NE fell behind early and the Pitt defensive front manhandled the NE O-Line at the point of contact. Unless Pittsburgh can get off to a similar fast start, the Patriots will be using the run more and attempting to control to clock with more a balanced offense. That makes it a different game for strategy because the Patriots won't have to work out of a desperate no-huddle offense to try and cut a big deficit. If they can stop the Steelers from running away with the game early and force them to win the game through the air, game over. Belichick and NE won the AFC title game in Heinz Field three years ago by taking away the Steelers' running game, and now their offense has more weapons and can take advantage of it more. The Steelers are like the Panthers of last year... they win with defense and the running game. Take away any one of those advantages and they lose home-field advantage and the game. Believe me, New England is fully aware that next season might not be so easy because they are likely to have to break in new coordinators to replace Charlie Weis on offense and Romeo Crenel on defense. Weis already has taken the head coaching job at Notre Dame and has been spending time working for both the Patriots and Fighting Irish. Crenel seems set for the head coaching job in Cleveland, although he can't accept it or do any work for the Browns until the Patriots season ends. This could be a last stand for the Pats with this current staff and I expect them to make the most of this playoff run. As I mentioned in my writeup of the Philly/Atlanta matchup, I use several factors in my capping but one that has exceptional numbers and stats was "Football Observers" and I provided the link in the previous post. Bottom line is that using their methodology, 13 of the past 15 Super Bowl titles have been won by one of the top two teams in projected wins based on points scored and allowed during the regular season. New England had the highest number of projected wins this season. Indianapolis, by a very tiny margin over Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, was second.
The Steelers Jeff Reed and the Pats Adam Vinatieri are essentially even here with Reed having great local knowledge of the swirling winds that enter Heinz field through the open end, but Vinatieri is the more consistent kicker and has made TWO game winning kicks in the Super Bowl. He's one of the greatest clutch field goal kickers the NFL has ever seen and he thrives in big games like this. Vinatieri has ice in his veins. Reed has been very solid for the Steelers because of his consistency regardless of the conditions. He's made 19 in a row and he made two in the playoffs. For the season, Reed is 28/33 and he's missed only two inside 40 yards. If this game figures to be similar to the Jets game and comes down to the wire, Vinatieri is the kicker who could take the Patriots to the Super Bowl again. No field goal of more than 50 yards has ever been kicked at Heinz Field, so the offenses will have to get inside the 30 yard lines to have a realistic shot of converting field goals. Neither team really wants this to come down to the kickers however, and I expect that unless the conditions are miserable, both teams will dig deep into the playbooks and use everything they can to score TD's inside the red zone instead of FG's. Weather updates may downgrade this play before kickoff, but I fully expect both teams to play wide open and that turnovers and special teams will factor in to the scoring, leading to an OVER of this very low total. Remember, the Jets game went over 35 without NY even being able to score an offensive touchdown! I may have a small play on the side leading up to kickoff, but for now, I will say New England 24, Pittsburgh 23 and OVER the total of 35. Good Luck in your plays... enjoy what could be the "real" Super Bowl on Sunday afternoon.
Last Week's Results:
4.5**** New England Patriots -1 /WIN
4**** Philadelphia/Minnesota UNDER 48 /WIN
3.5*** Philadelphia -8 /WIN
Halftimes/ 1*Patriots +.5 /WIN
1* UNDER 22.5 /WIN
______________________________________________
5***** Philadelphia -4 (-123 @ Pinnacle)
(Possibly adding a play on the Total later)
While some say that halftime adjustments are overrated, did you notice how many points the four losing teams scored in the third quarter last weekend? Minnesota, St. Louis and Indianapolis scored zero, while the Jets scored only seven on a defensive touchdown. Someone did something right at halftime. How important was it to get out to an early lead? All four teams that won scored first. How important are passing yards? The four losing quarterbacks all threw for more yards than the four winning quarterbacks! How's that for interesting? How important is defense to winning the divisional round? Every team that had a higher-ranked defense than the team they played beat the lower-ranked defense.
I am going to throw out the results of the Falcons last game against the Rams because of several factors. Most importantly, the Rams were the WORST team in the playoffs in regard to record, turnover differential, stats, defense and special teams. Only their domination over the Seattle Seahawks got them within sniffing distance of the second round, where they were exposed for what they are. What we also learned last weekend was that dome teams will likely always struggle in adverse weather conditions outdoors, particularly in the playoffs. We have another chance to prove that theory this weekend in Philadelphia. I wouldn't go crazy thinking that the Falcons win over St. Louis showed you anything. In two meetings this season, the St. Louis defense allowed 569 rushing yards by Atlanta.The Rams have the absolute worst set of linebackers in the league, they were manhandled up front allowing huge runs from scrimmage, their special teams, who rank last in the NFL, were gashed for huge returns including a TD and their -24 turnover margin finally did them in. So another dome team that impressed against weak competition indoors now leaves the friendly confines and 72 degree temps to play much stiffer competition outdoors on the road (See "Indianapolis Colts"). The Falcon defense got a lot of press over the first half of the season, but their improvement over 2003 went in reverse during the final eight games, particularly against the run. In the first half, Atlanta allowed 3.8 yards per carry, a number that includes the 56-10 loss to Kansas City in which the Chiefs ran for 271 yards. Over the second half, the Falcons allowed 4.3 yards per carry. Atlanta is much better at stopping the run than the pass, where they ranked 22nd in the league. Philly is likely to spread the backfield and put Westbrook out wide as a receiver if the Falcons shut down the limited Eagle running game. Westbrook will provide serious matchup problems when split out of the backfield if Atlanta tries to cover him with a linebacker or safety, and if they put a cornerback on him, it will create one on one opportunities for the Philly wideouts.The Falcons apply almost all their pressure with just the front four and they need to get pressure without bringing a blitz that will leave the Eagles receivers in single coverage. The Philadelphia offensive game plan will force the Falcons to cover Westbrook in the passing game. He had 73 receptions for 703 yards and six touchdowns in the regular season and added another five catches and a TD last Sunday. Coach Andy Reid will use Westbrook in the slot, even flanked wide as a receiver, and the Atlanta staff will have to come up with a different way to cover him. Westbrook's 73 receptions were 14 more than the entire Atlanta backfield this season. The Falcons aren't apt to change strategy now. Westbrook as a receiver figures to provide a big challenge for the Atlanta linebackers and safeties. The running of Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb must be of some concern to the Atlanta defense, too, but he is not nearly the threat that Vick poses. Over the past three seasons, McNabb has just 133 more rushing yards total than Vick gained in 2004 alone. If both teams are able to shut down the run and force the offenses to pass, the advantage goes to the Eagles. This season, Atlanta was the 30th ranked passing offense in the league while Philadelphia was 7th. With the loss of Terrell Owens, neither team has exceptional wide recievers... unless you ask Freddie Mitchell for his opinion after last week. The man has two solid playoff games including the famous 4th and 26 against Green Bay last year. Atlanta's (not so) Peerless Price is the team's 2nd leading receiver but is nowhere near a real threat in any one area of the field. He was barely halfway to 1,000 yards in receptions.
Eagles offensive lineman John Runyan's health in this game will be a key as he tweaked a knee ligament on one of the final plays against Minnesota when he got pushed over a pile. His blocking responsibility will be Falcons left end Patrick Kerney, who had 13 sacks during the season. Atlanta led the NFL in sacks with 48, and the Eagles were only one behind that number, yet these teams rush the QB in very different ways. Of the Falcons' 48 sacks, 36½ of them were rung up by defensive linemen, including 32½ by the team's starting front four. While the Falcons rarely blitz, the Eagles will come from every manner conceivable. The Eagles didn't have any defender with more than 7½ sacks but had 17 players with at least a half-sack each.
The way that Philadelphia approaches this game offensively will be based largely on the weather, but in fair conditions they have several advantages in the passing game. While the Eagles wideouts are down a notch since T.O. went out, they are still vastly superior to Atlanta's everywhere except at the tight end position. The Eagles' combination of L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis are not as important as Alge Crumpler in terms of the big play, but both are excellent possession receivers and solid in locating open spaces. The safeties will likely be key to covering the tight ends and that gives the edge to the Eagles. The Falcons safeties, Cory Hall and Bryan Scott, are nothing special and will give up the big play. Top draft pick DeAngelo Hall is a talented nickel back, but he is a rookie and missed a good part of the season where he would have gained much-needed game experience. Both of Philadelphia's first two touchdowns against Minnesota came as linebackers were trying to do the job of cornerbacks and safeties who had taken themselves out of the play.
Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is a master of exotic blitz angles and has been successful at containing a running quarterback. In the Eagles' 20-6 victory over Atlanta in the 2002 playoffs, Michael Vick ran for only 30 yards on six carries. In the Eagles' 35 games since that playoff matchup including postseason games, quarterbacks have carried 90 times for only 288 yards, only 3.2 yards per carry against the Philadelphia defense. Those quarterbacks have just six rushes of 10 yards or more against the Eagles. Of the quarterbacks who had three or more carries against the Eagles in the past 35 games, 16 totaled 10 yards or less. The Eagles limited Culpepper to 25 yards on five attempts in Sunday's win. Vick can be blitzed, as evidenced by the fact he was sacked 46 times in 2004, or 1 sack for every 7.98 dropbacks. For his career, Vick has gone down once every 9.76 dropbacks, an very high ratio. Vick had seven runs of 20 or more yards during the regular season and broke a 47 yarder on the third play of the game against the Rams, who couldn't stop the Falcons running game at all. Against St. Louis, Michael Vick ran for 119 yards and passed for a net of 70 yards. Vick's favorite receiver is Crumpler, who didn't catch a ton of balls but had the highest ratio of TD's to receptions on the team. He had 48 receptions on the year to lead the team, with 6 touchdowns. Eagles free safety Brian Dawkins is one of the best in the league at his position and a Pro Bowler. Philadelphia wants to match up Dawkins against Crumpler on passing downs.
The Eagles plan will be to force Vick to read the Philadelphia front seven to see if there is a blitz coming and from where. Vick is capable of completing less than 50% of his passes but still winning a game with his feet. Todd Weiner is as much the focus for the Falcons offensive line as is Runyan for Philly. Weiner will face Jevon Kearse, who had just 7½ sacks this season but whose ability to attack and compress a pocket supersedes that number. Kearse will often line up and simply attempt to beat the blocker upfield. He is capable of creating the big play like a sack accompanied by a strip, at any time. Both teams have solid offensive lines, although the Eagles have been forced to scramble more this season because of injuries. The Eagles used six different starting combinations, mostly because of instability at guard. Atlanta has used three combinations but has been playing the same group for the past 15 games. No question that the key to this game is that the Eagles must limit Vick's scrambles for positive yardage and keep the Falcons #1 rushing game under control, forcing Vick to rely on his arm to win. Easier said than done for sure, but Philly has been more successful against Vick than any other NFL team. If Vick has to throw over 20 passes, then the solid Eagle secondary will have interception opportunities. Vick threw 14 TD against 12 INT's this year, one of the worst percentages in the league. He doesn't have a "go-to" guy outside of Crumpler and Dawkins can limit him. Peerless Price had 45 catches with Dez White grabbing 30 and Brian Finneran 23 balls. The Falcons didn't come anywhere close to a 1,000 yard receiver.
Dirk Johnson is probably no one you ever heard of, but he will play an important role in this game as he is the Eagles punter. Why would a punter factor in this game? Allen Rossum put on a punt return show against the Rams and is one of the best in the game. Rossum ran back one 68 yards for a touchdown. He brought back the next one to the Rams' 32, setting up another TD. He brought back the one after that to the St. Louis 13, setting up a field goal. The score went from 21-14 to 38-17, largely because those three straight St. Louis punts ended in disaster. Three returns, on which the Falcons averaged 50.7 yards per return. Rossum ranked second in the NFC (and the NFL) this season among punt returners, with a 12.4-yard average, but his 21.6-yard kickoff-return average ranked 15th in the conference. Johnson has to either punt it away from him or get good enough hang time to prevent any potential big play. He averaged 42.1 per punt in the regular season, which was only 17th in the league. Special teams have played a big role in every postseason game this year so far and I expect it to continue in this game. The advantage goes to Philly in placekicking as well. Eagles David Akers is truly one of the premier long field-goal artists in the game. He converted 17 of 21 attempts from over 40 yards in 2004 and also has enough leg strength to manufacture touchbacks on kickoffs. Jay Feely, the Falcons' kicker, is a bit of an enigma. He has a strong leg but struggles with consistency. He converted 18 of 23 field goal attempts this season but connected on just 3/6 from beyond 40 yards.
The Falcons listed zero players on their injury report last week and suffered no serious casualties in the victory over the Rams on Saturday night. Terrell Owens remains sidelined with his broken leg and won't return for the Eagles until the Super Bowl, and even that might not be realistic to expect. Philadelphia played without starting weak-side linebacker Mark Simoneau, a former Falcons draft choice, on Sunday and his status for next weekend is uncertain. Philadelphia did get back a few players who had been injured in the final weeks of the season, notably right defensive end Derrick Burgess, and that certainly helped its front seven rotation.
I would like to include the all-important catagory of turnover ratio, meaning giveaways/takeaways. All four remaining playoff teams were in the positive in turnovers, but Atlanta had the fewest at +2. The Eagles meanwhile were +6 and New England was +9 and Pittsburgh was the leader at +11. When doing my game breakdowns, I look at several factors, each bearing different weight in my process. In utilizing as many handicapping tools as possible over the past fourteen years, I discovered a site that has some exceptional team factors that create templates based on weighted statistics over the season. These numbers form complete breakdowns on teams strengths and weaknesses. I have pasted the link below and while it may be too technical, boring and/or overwhelming for many people, I have used these numbers as a part of my research to come up with my final analysis and selections over the last few seasons. Hopefully you will find it helpful in your own handicapping as well. My point is, the data is broken down into six key categories: Estimated Wins, Total Efficiency, Weighted DVOA (explained at the website), Offensive & Defensive Efficiency and Special Teams.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php
In these six important categories, Philadelphia ranks in the top 5 in four of the six, while Atlanta is not ranked in any of these key numbers within the top five. In fact, the Falcons rank 24th in team efficiency, 19th in weighted DVOA and only rank as high as 6th in one category... special teams. Some additional interesting numbers, using the 52 Super Bowl teams since 1978, which was the beginning of the 16-game schedule and more liberal passing rules...
None of the 52 Super Bowl teams lost its final two games (Both Atlanta & Philadelphia were in this group, so this streak will be broken)
Since 1978, only eight of the 50 teams who lost a conference title game made it to the Super Bowl the following season (Philadelphia)
Ranked in regular-season top 10 in fewest yards allowed: 35 of 52 Super Bowl teams (Philadelphia 10th, Atlanta 14th)
Ranked in regular-season top 10 in most yards gained: 38 of 52 Super Bowl teams (Philadelphia 9th, Atlanta 20th)
Top 10 in yards per passing attempt: 39 teams (Philadelphia 6th, Atlanta 17th)
Teams with a Pro Bowl quarterback: 35 (67.3%) (Both, but McNabb was named starter based on votes)
28 of 52 Super Bowl teams had home-field advantage as the No. 1 seed (Philadelphia)
Total Super Bowl teams with home-field advantage in conference title game: 34 of 52, 65.4% (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh)... Only 11 teams have won a conference title game on the road over a team with better record.
The team that has better passing yard averages per attempt is 89-30 straight up & 83-30-6 ATS. Clearly related to the rushing yards statistic, this team is the more balanced team and can pass more efficiently because of a competent ground game. This trend has really done well in the last three years, going 25-4 SU & 24-4-1 ATS.
So what is my point to all this? The Eagles have had better success against Vick and the Falcon offense than nearly every team in the NFL and I will risk my bet that Philly DC Jim Johnson can come up with a scheme to shut down or reasonably control them again. With inclement weather, possibly including snow in the forecast, Atlanta will be hard pressed to beat the Eagles through the air against their Pro Bowl defensive secondary. Another warm weather dome based team will travel to an frigid outdoor stadium and be held in check while the Eagles offense will have enough opportunities in the passing game to make plays downfield and run just enough to make play action a factor. The Philadelphia Eagles will finally get over the hump and break the NFC Championship game jinx, moving on to their first Super Bowl since 1981. Philadelphia Eagles 26, Atlanta Falcons 13.
________________________________________
5***** Patriots/Steelers OVER 34, (-111@Pinnacle)
New England completely shut down the high-flying Colts last week and now have to travel to The Ketchup Bottle to face the Steelers. Somewhat surprisingly, the Patriots are a road favorite against the #1 seeded Steelers, only the 10th time since 1973 that there has been a home dog in the NFL Playoffs, and I was unable to find when there has ever been a home dog that was a #1 seed! That is actually six points, as the Steelers would normally get three for having the home field. In the 10 previous times that there was a home underdog, the home team is 6-3-1 against the pointspread, but only 3-3-1 ats against a non-division team. Since 1991 the stat is 1-1-1 ats in this exact situation.This is a rematch of an Oct. 31 meeting won by the Steelers 34-20, which snapped the Patriots' 21-game winning streak. By winning that game, the Steelers earned the right to play this game at home. New England's loss in that game came at a time when it was losing momentum, likely under the pressure of continuing their record streak. Now they're picking up momentum, as they seem to do at this time every year.The Patriots were without Corey Dillon that day, so this is a different New England team in some ways. New England was only able to run six times for a grand total of 5 yards, forcing Brady to throw it up 43 times. The most dominating stat had to be time of possession, 42:58 to 17:02 in favor of the Steelers, who had 417 yards in total offense to 248 for the Patriots. Brady was sacked four times, intercepted twice, and fumbled once. Kevin Faulk also fumbled. A very uncharacteristic performance for the Pats, who seldom look ruffled. They are an extension of their head coach, solid and unflappable.
New England was the second-most efficient passing offense of 2004, right behind the Colts. Indianapolis has by far the best offense in the NFL, KC included, but the Patriots have developed into a top five offense as well. Since the Patriots first won the Super Bowl in 2001, the perception of Tom Brady was an efficient QB who didn't put up big numbers and wouldn't turn the ball over, playing within himself and the offensive concept. As I mentioned last week, the Patriots only threw 42 less passes than the Colts this year, less than three per game. The Power Ratings favor the Chiefs and Vikings over the 2004 season but when you consider strength of schedule (also remember that the AFC East played the AFC North, and both divisions are filled with strong defenses), New England was the second-most efficient passing offense, right behind the Colts. The Pats are also far better balanced now that they have an actual running game with the addition of Corey Dillon. Dillon’s skills at picking up the blitz will be an important part of negating the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, which is the pass rush. Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis and Dillon (and you could also make a strong case for P. Holmes) may be the NFL's most valuable assets offensively as far as giving their teams balance and taking pressure off of the passing games.
Offensively, the Patriots will try to pick on Steelers cornerback Willie Williams, who now starts ahead of Chad Scott, who missed most of the season with a knee injury and is now a third cornerback. Williams has done a pretty good job all season, but he is 34 and only 5-9. The Jets went straight at him in the passing game, trying to match him up deep with Justin McCareins, who is about six inches taller. Williams broke up a couple of plays on deep passes, but Pennington threw at him so often that Williams ended up leading the team with 11 tackles. The Patriots will likely try it as well with David Givens or Deion Branch. Williams is a little bit shorter than Givens, but both Givens and Branch have good speed. New England has shown a greater desire to unload downfield this year and will try to go long on Williams. On the other side of the field, cornerback Deshea Townsend is wearing a cast to protect broken bones in his hands, so he won't be able to do much more than break up passes thrown in his direction. The Steelers use the zone blitz to bring pressure and force QB's to throw before they are ready, taking some heat off the corners and safeties. Troy Polamalu gets many of his picks off this pressure blitz when balls are thrown up for grabs in his area during the heavy rush.
The newest trend in the copycat NFL is that many teams are switching from the 4-3 to the 3-4 defensive front. Of the six teams that used the 3-4 this season, three finished ranked in the top six in scoring defense: Pittsburgh (first), New England (second) and Baltimore (sixth). San Diego, another 3-4 team, was 11th in scoring defense. Pittsburgh (first), Baltimore (sixth) and New England (ninth) also finished ranked in the top 10 in total defense. The Steelers use the 3-4 defense exclusively while the Patriots start in it, and they mix in other fronts as well. I expect the Pats to take a page from the Jets scheme last week, where they put three down linemen and five linebackers/safeties in the box to pressure the run and force Big Ben to throw against three defenders. Burress was a non-factor for the most part, because Ben couldn't get the ball downfield. The Steelers were forced to go away from their normal ratio of 61% running plays and until the end of the 4th quarter, they were split almost evenly between pass and run. This is not the type of offense that the Steelers want to play, as limiting the responsibility of Roethelisberger in the passing game is what enabled them to control the clock and play stern defense.
Big Ben wasn't himself against the Jets and how he bounces back from one of his worst games as a starter is key. He overthrew a number of passes and seemed to have trouble gripping the ball even though this was his fifth game (yes, 5th) using gloves on his right hand because of the cold. He was 17 of 30 passing for 181 yards and had two passes intercepted, one for a touchdown and another in the final two minutes of regulation that could have resulted in a game-winning field goal for the Jets. Subtracting for sacks and interception returns, Ben Roethlisberger netted only 61 yards passing. The Patriots are masters of confusing veteran quarterbacks and they will do everything in the world to confuse rookie Roethlisberger even more. Though the Patriots reserve most of their defensive trickery until the game is secure in the second half, the Patriots will try to fool Roethlisberger with blitzes and fake blitzes. Roethlisberger is a classic play action passer and the Patriots usually do well against these types of quarterbacks. If New England puts eight in the box and can slow down Bettis and Staley, the game falls on the shoulders of a rookie QB who hasn't had to take on that responsibility during the course of the year. The pointspread variation in this game is largely based on the perception that the Pats will use stifling defense to confuse Big Ben and force the same mistakes that he made against the Jets. NO OTHER WAY can a playoff team be favored on the road against the top seed, especially in a difficult stadium. I also believe that the line has been adjusted for the prescence of Corey Dillon being active in this game. The big problem for the Steelers is their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. They are settling for more field goals than touchdowns and that could cost them against the Pats. In their last seven games, they have had nine touchdowns and 17 field goals in 30 red zone opportunities. They've had to resort to trick plays like shovel passes to wide receivers and halfback option passes by Bettis to get touchdowns. Now that NE has seen this stuff on film, I don't see that stuff working as well this time. Ken Whisenhunt is in his first season as offensive coordinator of the Steelers. How well he adjusts his play calls to the peculiar schemes and stunts that New England will throw at his rookie QB will determine how the Steelers offense moves the ball, controls the game and puts TD's on the board.
The Colts lack of size at receiver allowed the Pats to play more physical and stop the deep balls from Peyton, but the Steelers are bigger and just as physical as the Pats. The new rules on five yard contact will likely play a role in this game due to the size and toughness of Hines Ward and Burress. Ward is one of the most physical blocking receivers in football and he gets Roethlisberger out of trouble by getting open. Plaxico Burress is a tall, physical receiver as well and he will be hard to match up against for the injury-depleted Patriots secondary. Burress is 6-5 and the tallest Patriots cornerback is 5-11. The Patriots have survived all season with a depleted secondary, even going on the road against the Rams, who have one of the more creative passing games in football and they completely shut them down. Against the Colts, they didn't need to move Eugene Wilson to cornerback from his spot at safety and they somehow managed with Randall Gay, Earthwind Moreland and Troy Brown (!), the wide receiver, against the top passing game in the NFL. The Patriots have survived most of the season without Ty Law and Tyrone Poole, and they didn't have Richard Seymour against the Colts. During the 2004 season, teams completed only 58 % of their passes and had an ugly 75.2 QB rating against the Patriots. How do they do it? Belichick and Romeo Crenel keep coming up with gameplans that defy logic, especially when you consider what they are using for spare parts! The Patriots had problems stopping the run early in the season, but they finished strong and only allowed 98.3 yards a game and 3.9 yards a carry down the stretch. Very few teams are as disciplined as Pitt when it comes to the running game, however. They keep busting on you continually with Bettis and Staley until your defensive front wears down... then they break a long one up the middle or use play action passes to beat you over the top with Burress and Ward deep. The Pittsburgh offensive line is solid and will be sending Faneca and Hartings to the Pro Bowl. Fullback Dan Kreider is a bruiser who leads into the hole and takes a pounding, allowing Bettis to gain positive yards. Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson and the other Patriots linebackers will be colliding with Kreider all day long. The Steelers are one of the most physical teams offensively at the point of attack in the whole NFL. It will be interesting to see what Crenel will come up with to shut down the Pitt running game this time. The question is, if both teams have the running game restricted by the opposing defense, who can do more in the passing game? New England, without question. Roethlisberger had a decent game against the Patriots last time, but come playoff time the Patriots defense gets even better.
In the win over the Patriots on Oct. 31, it was a Halloween nightmare for New England as the Steelers jumped to an early 21-3 lead in the first quarter and that changed the way the rest of the game was played. Brady was forced to pass the ball 45 times and threw two interceptions. That is not the game NE wants to play this week. Brady could never get the Pats closer than 14 points, faced a nasty pass rush and was sacked four times. The time of possession was 43 minutes for the Steelers and only 17 for the Patriots. There was no running game without Dillon and we don't know how much difference he will make this week... Blitzburgh is powerful at the line of scrimmage and even with the loss of Casey Hampton, Chris Hoke has played tremendously as his replacement. It likely wasn't Kevin Faulk's fault that NE was unable to do anything in the run game as much as it was that NE fell behind early and the Pitt defensive front manhandled the NE O-Line at the point of contact. Unless Pittsburgh can get off to a similar fast start, the Patriots will be using the run more and attempting to control to clock with more a balanced offense. That makes it a different game for strategy because the Patriots won't have to work out of a desperate no-huddle offense to try and cut a big deficit. If they can stop the Steelers from running away with the game early and force them to win the game through the air, game over. Belichick and NE won the AFC title game in Heinz Field three years ago by taking away the Steelers' running game, and now their offense has more weapons and can take advantage of it more. The Steelers are like the Panthers of last year... they win with defense and the running game. Take away any one of those advantages and they lose home-field advantage and the game. Believe me, New England is fully aware that next season might not be so easy because they are likely to have to break in new coordinators to replace Charlie Weis on offense and Romeo Crenel on defense. Weis already has taken the head coaching job at Notre Dame and has been spending time working for both the Patriots and Fighting Irish. Crenel seems set for the head coaching job in Cleveland, although he can't accept it or do any work for the Browns until the Patriots season ends. This could be a last stand for the Pats with this current staff and I expect them to make the most of this playoff run. As I mentioned in my writeup of the Philly/Atlanta matchup, I use several factors in my capping but one that has exceptional numbers and stats was "Football Observers" and I provided the link in the previous post. Bottom line is that using their methodology, 13 of the past 15 Super Bowl titles have been won by one of the top two teams in projected wins based on points scored and allowed during the regular season. New England had the highest number of projected wins this season. Indianapolis, by a very tiny margin over Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, was second.
The Steelers Jeff Reed and the Pats Adam Vinatieri are essentially even here with Reed having great local knowledge of the swirling winds that enter Heinz field through the open end, but Vinatieri is the more consistent kicker and has made TWO game winning kicks in the Super Bowl. He's one of the greatest clutch field goal kickers the NFL has ever seen and he thrives in big games like this. Vinatieri has ice in his veins. Reed has been very solid for the Steelers because of his consistency regardless of the conditions. He's made 19 in a row and he made two in the playoffs. For the season, Reed is 28/33 and he's missed only two inside 40 yards. If this game figures to be similar to the Jets game and comes down to the wire, Vinatieri is the kicker who could take the Patriots to the Super Bowl again. No field goal of more than 50 yards has ever been kicked at Heinz Field, so the offenses will have to get inside the 30 yard lines to have a realistic shot of converting field goals. Neither team really wants this to come down to the kickers however, and I expect that unless the conditions are miserable, both teams will dig deep into the playbooks and use everything they can to score TD's inside the red zone instead of FG's. Weather updates may downgrade this play before kickoff, but I fully expect both teams to play wide open and that turnovers and special teams will factor in to the scoring, leading to an OVER of this very low total. Remember, the Jets game went over 35 without NY even being able to score an offensive touchdown! I may have a small play on the side leading up to kickoff, but for now, I will say New England 24, Pittsburgh 23 and OVER the total of 35. Good Luck in your plays... enjoy what could be the "real" Super Bowl on Sunday afternoon.