NFC Divisional Total

[Uncle Lou]

Today, we are taking St Louis/Atlanta Under 48 1/2. For being such a high powered offense, the Rams are only 9-8 to the over and the Falcons are the essential under team at 11-5 this season. Too many people view the Falcons as a team that scores, but the thing is that they do not have the vertical offense and are geared more for the run attack, which will eat clock. Add to the fact that they have a decent defense that usually keeps the numbers down, especialy when it is this high. Atlanta is 8-2 to the under as a favorite, 6-2 to the under when the total is between 42 1/2 and 49. Interestingly, they are also 7-2 to the under in a dome this season and should be able to keep the Rams from scoring to much here. St Louis is 8-5 to the under in NFC games this season, including last weeks playoff game in Seattle. We see a lot of running by the Falcons and the Rams countering with a nice amount of Jackson and Faulk themselves. Ultimately, this game will come down to Vick versus Bulger, but this total is too high for an important game. Atlanta averages 21.2 on offense and 21.1 on defense, that is 42. The Rams average 20.4 on offense and 24.2 on defense, that is 44. Both of those fall short of 48 1/2, we like the under.

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