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The last week of regulation season football throws some of us for a loop. It shouldn't. The only difference is you can't approach it statistically. The value this week may not be with the best teams. Most of them have already won everything they can in the regular season, and will be saving their star players for the playoffs. The Rams demonstrated a fairly convincing win over the Eagles second and third strings last Monday night. They still fall into the category I call "One and done" if they should reach the playoffs, but the value was with the Rams on that game. The same situation applies for several games this week. Avoid top quality teams who have nothing to play for in the last game. Look for value with decent ones who haven't been in the playoff hunt. I may even have afternoon plays based on teams' elimination or inclusion based on the desire to rest starters for the playoffs. Only the Chargers/Chiefs game has no playoff implications in the afternoon. If I do, I will post by 12:45 Pacific Time on Sunday, depending on what happens in the early games.
The Bills need a couple of events to transpire to make the playoffs. They need to beat Pittsburgh, then Bills coach Mike Mularkey will root for the Rams to beat the Jets and for the Colts to beat the Broncos. Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio must coach his team to a victory over the Raiders, then hope Denver and Buffalo lose. Jets coach Herman Edwards will root for Denver and Buffalo losses if his Jets falter against the Rams. If the Broncos lose to the Colts, Mike Shanahan needs Buffalo, Jacksonville and Baltimore to lose. If the Vikings can't beat the Redskins, Tice will root for New Orleans to beat Carolina or the Jets to beat the Rams. On the flip side, if Carolina beats the Saints, Panthers coach John Fox needs a Vikings loss or a Seattle win or a St. Louis loss or tie. New Orleans needs to beat the Panthers, then Saints coach Jim Haslett will root for the Jets to beat the Rams or wins/ties from Seattle and Minnesota. The Rams must beat the Jets, then Mike Martz can cheer for the Falcons to beat the Seahawks or root for a tie in the Saints-Panthers game.
Got all that?
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5***** Buffalo Bills/Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 34
4.5***** Houston Texans -10
4**** Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
3*** Baltimore/Miami UNDER 35
3*** Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
3*** New Orleans/Carolina OVER 45
2** Jets -2
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Totals are generated by stats, and the Bills stats still reflect their staggering start to the season. The last half of the season, it's hard to find a better ball club. Steelers have announced they intend to win this game, so I will not lay you 8 points for the home field. In order for the Steelers to be in this game at all, they will have to put some points on the board. Otherwise this is Bills all day. The only way this one goes under is if the weather factor rears its head. I checked and it's a 30% chance of precip on game day in Buffalo. 70% chance of an OVER. This one will be a part of the record for this website, but you should check the weather the day before. In case of blizzard, pass on this one.The Steelers bring the league's best record and longest active winning streak (club-record 13) to Orchard Park to face the best team that might not make the playoffs. Buffalo has won six in a row and nine of 11 and is seeking to join the 1992 San Diego Chargers as the only teams in NFL history to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start. The Bills do not need any help internally. They have scored 228 points in their past six games... Chicago and Washington haven't scored that many all season, an average of 38 points per outing. But the Bills need some outside help to make the playoffs. They need to beat the Steelers and have the Jets or Broncos lose. It likely will happen.
Last chance to bet against Cleveland this season. In their last three games, since the firing of Coach Davis, the Browns have averaged 4.5 points per game. That's right, 4.5 per game. Houston, on the other hand, shutout the Jaguars last week. Some kind of defense to do that at the other guys home. Good chance of a shutout again this week, I'd say. Which is why 10.5 is not too many points to lay for the home field this time. 3 for the home field and another 7 to get to pick the Browns as my opponent. The odds makers should not establish a line on this game as much as they should come up with odds on whether Cleveland will manage to score against Houston. In their past two games, the Texans have allowed just five points, and that was a field goal and safety to the Bears two weeks ago. Last week, they shut out what should have been an inspired Jacksonville team, which was in the playoff hunt, 21-0. Meantime, the most points the Browns have scored under interim coach Terry Robiskie is 15, and that was in his first game against New England, a 42-15 defeat. Since then, the Browns have scored 14 points total, in three games.
With a "must-win" situation and Sage Rosenfels at QB for the Dolphins, expect the Ravens defense to clamp down on Miami's offense and hold them to 10 points or less. Baltimore is laying 11 at home with an anemic offense and going against a Dolphin team that has played their asses off for Coach Bates, knowing he wouldn't be back. Cleveland(!)held Miami to 10 points last week with Jay Feeley and with Rosenfels, they may shut them out. My only concern would be turnovers by a skittish QB in Rosenfels and short filed scores for the Ravens. Baltimore 22, Miami 9
Marvin Lewis cares deeply about this game... the Eagles do not. the Bengals will look just as good vs. the Eagles second and third strings as the Rams did on Monday, and they want to finish the year buliding toward next season. Donovan McNabb played one series in Monday night's loss to the Rams, and Terrell Owens won't even get to play that much in the playoffs, however long Philadelphia survives without him. How much McNabb plays against Cincinnati remains to be seen, but the Eagles have nothing more to gain by beating the Bengals. The Iggles just want to get everyone back to Philly in one piece. Coach Reid won't lose any more starters prior to the playoffs. He won't win any more games either. In that position, I would do exactly the same thing and you can't fault Philly for trying to keep the team healthy, especially having lost much of the defense and Terrell Owens. They get home field throughout the NFC playoffs, but they are going to have problems throughout. Mark my words. Bengals 26, Eagles 13
If this one sounds a lot like the two plays above it, it's because it is a lot like them. Chargers announced they will start rookie QB Rivers this week. Hmmm. If we're not going to risk Drew Brees, then I guess we won't be seeing much of LaDanian Tomlinson either. All that being true, Chiefs will roll, salvaging an 8-8 season from a disaster that could have been a lot worse. No point in Chiefs saving anyone for next week's game. There isn't any. The Chargers' playoff position remains firm — a first-round home game — regardless of the outcome. I will give you 2.5 points. Kansas City 26, San Diego 10
Unlike the Patriots, the Jets can't seem to beat a team with a winning record. Their only victory against a team which had a winning record when they played it was against San Diego and that was back in Week 2 when the Chargers were 1-0. The Jets need a victory to secure one of the wild-card playoff spots. If they lose to St. Louis, which is 9-0 in December under Mike Martz, they can still get in the playoffs if Buffalo or Denver loses. The Rams stayed alive for the playoffs by beating a watered-down Eagles team Monday night. They still can win the NFC West with a victory against the Jets and a Seattle loss to Atlanta. And they also are still in position for a wild-card spot. Expect the Jets to demonstrate how much better a team on the AFC bubble is than one on the NFC bubble.
Jets 30, Rams 12
OK, let me get this straight: they play in the same division, both teams are 7-8 and Jim Haslett is on the hot seat and John Fox is a genius.... but Fox did more with less, as his team was wiped out by injury on both sides of the ball... New Orleans has underachieved all year, forgot about Duce in week 2 and Aaron Brooks has thrown passes everywhere but forward to his own team. Even though the Saints have performed better on the road than in the Superdome, they are fragile emotionally and once behind, will fold like a Boy Scout tent... nobody thought this game would mean anything more than a month ago. In early November, Carolina was 1-7 and New Orleans was 3-5. But after a couple of robust comebacks, each team is in contention for a wild-card playoff spot, and the rules are very simple: The winner is in, the loser goes home. The Panthers, who have won six of their past seven, are trying to become the first team to start 1-7 and make the playoffs. The Saints have won three in a row since a 32-21 home loss to the Panthers and are trying to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2000, Jim Haslett's first year as coach. The Saints stayed alive with a 23-16 Vick-tory against the Mike Vick-less Falcons.
If the Panthers win, they need only: A) a Rams loss to the Jets B) a Seahawks win over Atlanta or C) a Vikings loss. It's a little tougher for the Saints, but still quite probable. New Orleans needs a win and a Rams loss or a win, a Seahawks win and a Vikings win. Don't forget, the Panthers are defending NFC champs and playing as well as anyone in the conference. Panthers will get their points, Saints will do enough to push it over. Only Carolina's injuries keep me off a play on the Panthers laying the seven. Panthers 29, Saints 21
The Bills need a couple of events to transpire to make the playoffs. They need to beat Pittsburgh, then Bills coach Mike Mularkey will root for the Rams to beat the Jets and for the Colts to beat the Broncos. Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio must coach his team to a victory over the Raiders, then hope Denver and Buffalo lose. Jets coach Herman Edwards will root for Denver and Buffalo losses if his Jets falter against the Rams. If the Broncos lose to the Colts, Mike Shanahan needs Buffalo, Jacksonville and Baltimore to lose. If the Vikings can't beat the Redskins, Tice will root for New Orleans to beat Carolina or the Jets to beat the Rams. On the flip side, if Carolina beats the Saints, Panthers coach John Fox needs a Vikings loss or a Seattle win or a St. Louis loss or tie. New Orleans needs to beat the Panthers, then Saints coach Jim Haslett will root for the Jets to beat the Rams or wins/ties from Seattle and Minnesota. The Rams must beat the Jets, then Mike Martz can cheer for the Falcons to beat the Seahawks or root for a tie in the Saints-Panthers game.
Got all that?
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5***** Buffalo Bills/Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 34
4.5***** Houston Texans -10
4**** Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
3*** Baltimore/Miami UNDER 35
3*** Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
3*** New Orleans/Carolina OVER 45
2** Jets -2
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Totals are generated by stats, and the Bills stats still reflect their staggering start to the season. The last half of the season, it's hard to find a better ball club. Steelers have announced they intend to win this game, so I will not lay you 8 points for the home field. In order for the Steelers to be in this game at all, they will have to put some points on the board. Otherwise this is Bills all day. The only way this one goes under is if the weather factor rears its head. I checked and it's a 30% chance of precip on game day in Buffalo. 70% chance of an OVER. This one will be a part of the record for this website, but you should check the weather the day before. In case of blizzard, pass on this one.The Steelers bring the league's best record and longest active winning streak (club-record 13) to Orchard Park to face the best team that might not make the playoffs. Buffalo has won six in a row and nine of 11 and is seeking to join the 1992 San Diego Chargers as the only teams in NFL history to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start. The Bills do not need any help internally. They have scored 228 points in their past six games... Chicago and Washington haven't scored that many all season, an average of 38 points per outing. But the Bills need some outside help to make the playoffs. They need to beat the Steelers and have the Jets or Broncos lose. It likely will happen.
Last chance to bet against Cleveland this season. In their last three games, since the firing of Coach Davis, the Browns have averaged 4.5 points per game. That's right, 4.5 per game. Houston, on the other hand, shutout the Jaguars last week. Some kind of defense to do that at the other guys home. Good chance of a shutout again this week, I'd say. Which is why 10.5 is not too many points to lay for the home field this time. 3 for the home field and another 7 to get to pick the Browns as my opponent. The odds makers should not establish a line on this game as much as they should come up with odds on whether Cleveland will manage to score against Houston. In their past two games, the Texans have allowed just five points, and that was a field goal and safety to the Bears two weeks ago. Last week, they shut out what should have been an inspired Jacksonville team, which was in the playoff hunt, 21-0. Meantime, the most points the Browns have scored under interim coach Terry Robiskie is 15, and that was in his first game against New England, a 42-15 defeat. Since then, the Browns have scored 14 points total, in three games.
With a "must-win" situation and Sage Rosenfels at QB for the Dolphins, expect the Ravens defense to clamp down on Miami's offense and hold them to 10 points or less. Baltimore is laying 11 at home with an anemic offense and going against a Dolphin team that has played their asses off for Coach Bates, knowing he wouldn't be back. Cleveland(!)held Miami to 10 points last week with Jay Feeley and with Rosenfels, they may shut them out. My only concern would be turnovers by a skittish QB in Rosenfels and short filed scores for the Ravens. Baltimore 22, Miami 9
Marvin Lewis cares deeply about this game... the Eagles do not. the Bengals will look just as good vs. the Eagles second and third strings as the Rams did on Monday, and they want to finish the year buliding toward next season. Donovan McNabb played one series in Monday night's loss to the Rams, and Terrell Owens won't even get to play that much in the playoffs, however long Philadelphia survives without him. How much McNabb plays against Cincinnati remains to be seen, but the Eagles have nothing more to gain by beating the Bengals. The Iggles just want to get everyone back to Philly in one piece. Coach Reid won't lose any more starters prior to the playoffs. He won't win any more games either. In that position, I would do exactly the same thing and you can't fault Philly for trying to keep the team healthy, especially having lost much of the defense and Terrell Owens. They get home field throughout the NFC playoffs, but they are going to have problems throughout. Mark my words. Bengals 26, Eagles 13
If this one sounds a lot like the two plays above it, it's because it is a lot like them. Chargers announced they will start rookie QB Rivers this week. Hmmm. If we're not going to risk Drew Brees, then I guess we won't be seeing much of LaDanian Tomlinson either. All that being true, Chiefs will roll, salvaging an 8-8 season from a disaster that could have been a lot worse. No point in Chiefs saving anyone for next week's game. There isn't any. The Chargers' playoff position remains firm — a first-round home game — regardless of the outcome. I will give you 2.5 points. Kansas City 26, San Diego 10
Unlike the Patriots, the Jets can't seem to beat a team with a winning record. Their only victory against a team which had a winning record when they played it was against San Diego and that was back in Week 2 when the Chargers were 1-0. The Jets need a victory to secure one of the wild-card playoff spots. If they lose to St. Louis, which is 9-0 in December under Mike Martz, they can still get in the playoffs if Buffalo or Denver loses. The Rams stayed alive for the playoffs by beating a watered-down Eagles team Monday night. They still can win the NFC West with a victory against the Jets and a Seattle loss to Atlanta. And they also are still in position for a wild-card spot. Expect the Jets to demonstrate how much better a team on the AFC bubble is than one on the NFC bubble.
Jets 30, Rams 12
OK, let me get this straight: they play in the same division, both teams are 7-8 and Jim Haslett is on the hot seat and John Fox is a genius.... but Fox did more with less, as his team was wiped out by injury on both sides of the ball... New Orleans has underachieved all year, forgot about Duce in week 2 and Aaron Brooks has thrown passes everywhere but forward to his own team. Even though the Saints have performed better on the road than in the Superdome, they are fragile emotionally and once behind, will fold like a Boy Scout tent... nobody thought this game would mean anything more than a month ago. In early November, Carolina was 1-7 and New Orleans was 3-5. But after a couple of robust comebacks, each team is in contention for a wild-card playoff spot, and the rules are very simple: The winner is in, the loser goes home. The Panthers, who have won six of their past seven, are trying to become the first team to start 1-7 and make the playoffs. The Saints have won three in a row since a 32-21 home loss to the Panthers and are trying to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2000, Jim Haslett's first year as coach. The Saints stayed alive with a 23-16 Vick-tory against the Mike Vick-less Falcons.
If the Panthers win, they need only: A) a Rams loss to the Jets B) a Seahawks win over Atlanta or C) a Vikings loss. It's a little tougher for the Saints, but still quite probable. New Orleans needs a win and a Rams loss or a win, a Seahawks win and a Vikings win. Don't forget, the Panthers are defending NFC champs and playing as well as anyone in the conference. Panthers will get their points, Saints will do enough to push it over. Only Carolina's injuries keep me off a play on the Panthers laying the seven. Panthers 29, Saints 21