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4.5**** Texas A&M -2.5
4.5*** Florida State/West Virginia UNDER 46
3*** Texas/Michigan UNDER 54
3*** Texas -5.5
3*** Iowa/LSU OVER 42
3*** Utah/Pittsburgh UNDER 68
The Aggies stumble into bowl season with three losses in their last four games after making the best of a grueling regular season schedule. Three of their four losses came against clubs that finished the year ranked among the top 10 clubs in the country- Texas, Oklahoma, and Utah. Now with nearly a month to prepare for the club’s first bowl appearance since 1998, the Aggies should give the Volunteers all they can handle. Texas A&M puts together 438.5 yards of total offense a game and finished the year at 7-4 against the spread despite its late-season slide. A&M has done a good job against elite runners this season, holding Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma State's Vernand Morency and Kansas State's Darren Sproles under their averages. The exception was Texas' Cedric Benson, who had 165 in the season finale. McNeal, a junior, accounts for most of the success the Aggies have had on offense, and ranks sixth nationally in total offense. He averages 295.45 yards a game in total offense. McNeal was 11-of-24 for 213 yards passing with one interception and two touchdowns in a 42-35 loss to No. 2 Oklahoma on Nov. 6. He has netted 700 yards on 142 carries and thrown for 2,550 yards. The Aggies need a big outing from dual-threat QB Reggie McNeal against a Volunteers pass defense that ranks 88th in the country. McNeal ranks sixth nationally in total offense.The 15th-ranked Volunteers (9-3) allowed a school-record 288 points, breaking the old mark set in 1988 with 286 points. The Vols allowed 102 points in the last three games against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Auburn in the Southeastern Conference championship game. The defense played poorly after having fabulous outings against Georgia and Alabama. Junior Rick Clausen will start as planned in Saturday's game against Texas A&M, but look for Tennessee to rely on RBs Cedric Houston and Gerald Riggs but WR Robert Meachem still could be a weapon against an A&M defense that gave up some big plays this year. Houston is 57 yards from giving the Vols two 1,000-yard rushers for the first time. For the sake of argument, let’s just say Rick Clausen takes a mammoth shot in the first quarter and heads to the trainer’s table for the day. Then what? Then it’s C.J. Leak’s turn. Brent Schaffer (collarbone) won’t make the trip to Texas, so if Clausen goes down, Leak will be forced to run the show. The fourth-string quarterback has yet to throw a pass this year after moving over to linebacker, but with the way Vols pivots have been hitting the shelf, it wouldn’t be overly surprising to see Leak taking some snaps before this one's over. Tennessee’s scoring about 34 points a game over its last three, but has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests. Plus, the Vols are just 1-6 straight up in the postseason since claiming the national championship in 1998. Texas A&M comes to play, jumps on the Vols early and forces Clausen to make throws he is not capable of.
Texas A&M 29, Tennessee 17
The Hawkeyes have won seven straight, four of them over bowl teams. Iowa coach Ferentz and LSU lame-duck coach Nick Saban worked in offices 15 feet apart when they were assistants with the Cleveland Browns in 1993 and 1994. They've coached against each other only once, when Ferentz's first Iowa team lost to Saban's Michigan State Spartans 49-3 in 1999. Even two solid defensive teams like Purdue and Georgia a year ago couldn't slow a trend that has seen five of the last six games go OVER the total. Iowa has the 117th ranked rushing offense in NCAA D-1, so it's not likely that they will have much success on the ground against the Tigers. Ferentz is a great bowl game coach and has used trick plays and bottom-of-the-playbook stuff that has not been used all season to give his team a spark in these events. Even though both these teams are known for their defense, I believe we will see some offenses come to life in Orlando today. Good weather and the last game for the LSU staff will mean every play in the book will come out today. I have this total set at 51 in my handicapping with a slight lean to LSU due only to their balance offensively. LSU 27, Iowa 24
I don't have a clear feeling about where these guys are going into the biggest game of Mack Brown's career at Texas, but watching the Alamo and Holiday Bowls the last couple of days has given me what I think is at least a little bit of insight into who Texas is as a team and what type of an opponent they can expect to face in Michigan. Ohio State's easy blowout of Oklahoma State told me this: the Big 10 is a power conference, populated with big, strong, physical football players as well as some guys with surprising speed. Ohio State impressed me with the ease with which they dispatched a talented Oklahoma State team, even though the Cowboys went south a bit over the last half of the season. Point is, I am expecting to see a Wolverine squad that is at least comparable to the Buckeyes in terms of size, speed and physicality. These guys will slug it out with Texas, and will present a huge physical challenge for the Longhorns. Watching Texas Tech basically blow California out in the Holiday Bowl also told me that Texas, which slapped Texas Tech silly in Lubbock, is certainly one of the best teams in college football when it gets rolling on both sides of the ball. I believe Texas can win this game if it executes, keeps the turnovers to a minimum, and eliminates penalties. They don't have to play a perfect game, just a focused, emotional one, and no mistakes from Mr. Young at quarterback.
Texas finally got their wish by getting a BCS bid this year. The funny thing is, for all the talk about Mack Brown "politicking" for the bid and the leap over Cal in the standings, this may have been the right way all along. Cedric Benson will turn out the lights on a magical college carreer his eight year career by rushing for over 150 yards, but Texas wins it with their Derrick Johnson-led defense, which will leave the Wolverines freshman QB Henne in a very vulnerable position. While Michigan has weapons on the outside with Braylon Edwards and running back Michael Hart, it will be the speed and physical play up front and pressure on Henne that will turn this game. Michigan will get some yards between the 20's... but I believe Texas has more game-changers than Michigan, particularly with guys like Young, Cedric Benson and Johnson on the field and will ultimately prove the more explosive team. I sense that the Longhorns pass rush will put so much pressure on Henne that it will force the QB into bad decisions. First of all, the Horns match-up well with Michigan. I like UT's rush offense against the Wolverines' run D. Over the final three games of the season, Michigan gave up 397 yards on the ground to Michigan State and then 200++ to both Northwestern and Ohio State. OSU QB Troy Smith torched the Wolverine defense for 145 yards on 18 carries and MSU QBs Dowell and Stanton totaled 112 yards on 18 carries. The Wolverines focus will be on slowing Vince Young's running and forcing him to pass, but that's easier said than done. Michigan couldn't stop three lesser athletes than Young, and those QBs didn't have a backfield runner like Cedric Benson. Young finished the season completing 52 of 79 attempts for 698 yards. I also like the Longhorn D vs. the Michigan run game. Braylon Edwards will get his yards. He got them vs. Notre Dame and Ohio State, the Wolverines' two losses. The more important stats from those losses are Michigan's rushing yards: 56 vs. the Irish and 71 vs. the Buckeyes. Edwards will not beat Texas, but Michael Hart could. Greg Robinson knows it, and will scheme accordingly... and speaking of Robinson, his influence on the attitude of this team is another of the aspects that make me like the Horns in this one. No way is this team unprepared, in scheme or in attitude, as have been some Longhorn bowl teams of recent vintage. I expect Texas to be ready. Texas will not stand a chance against Braylon Edwards, if Chad Henne has time to throw the football, but if the second half of the Texas A&M game is any indication, the rookie won't be sitting in the pocket and picking out the open WR's. The Wolverine defense was torn to shreds by Ohio State, who was able to mix pass and run with a mobile quarterback. The difference is that Ohio State didn't have Cedric Benson. The favorite in the Rose Bowl game has won three in a row SU & ATS after losing the previous four ATS. Also, the UNDER has hit in five straight years, and the designated home team is on a run of 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games. Texas 27, Michigan 14
Four words: Wyatt Sexton/Chris Rix. These two will have to play the game of a lifetime against WVU, but the Seminole D will definitely show up. WVU is a one dimensional team now that Rasheed Marshall seems to have lost his ability to throw the ball downfield. With FSU keying on the Mountaineer running backs, Marshall will be handicapped without any real help on the outside. Florida State can shut down the WVU attack, do just enough to move the ball and the clock, and hopefully the double-headed monster of SextonRix won't do anything too stupid to cause turnovers in the red zone or give WVU a short field. Bowden knows he is hamstrung at the skill positions offensively so even if Craphonso Thope could go at WR for FSU, he really doesn't have anyone to get him the ball downfield. This one will be played close to the vest by FSU and are the more talented team defensively. A game played not to lose or fuck it up is boring, but will move the clock and cash the tickets. As for West Virginia, the Mountaineers couldn't win the watered-down Big East losing at home to Boston College 36-17, when a win would have clinched a BCS bid and a $14 million payday. WVU also lost at Va Tech and Pitt plus needed overtime to beat pathetic Maryland, 19-16. West Virginia's marquee win of the year came in a road win at U Conn (31-19)... Florida State 24, West Virginia 13
4.5*** Florida State/West Virginia UNDER 46
3*** Texas/Michigan UNDER 54
3*** Texas -5.5
3*** Iowa/LSU OVER 42
3*** Utah/Pittsburgh UNDER 68
The Aggies stumble into bowl season with three losses in their last four games after making the best of a grueling regular season schedule. Three of their four losses came against clubs that finished the year ranked among the top 10 clubs in the country- Texas, Oklahoma, and Utah. Now with nearly a month to prepare for the club’s first bowl appearance since 1998, the Aggies should give the Volunteers all they can handle. Texas A&M puts together 438.5 yards of total offense a game and finished the year at 7-4 against the spread despite its late-season slide. A&M has done a good job against elite runners this season, holding Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma State's Vernand Morency and Kansas State's Darren Sproles under their averages. The exception was Texas' Cedric Benson, who had 165 in the season finale. McNeal, a junior, accounts for most of the success the Aggies have had on offense, and ranks sixth nationally in total offense. He averages 295.45 yards a game in total offense. McNeal was 11-of-24 for 213 yards passing with one interception and two touchdowns in a 42-35 loss to No. 2 Oklahoma on Nov. 6. He has netted 700 yards on 142 carries and thrown for 2,550 yards. The Aggies need a big outing from dual-threat QB Reggie McNeal against a Volunteers pass defense that ranks 88th in the country. McNeal ranks sixth nationally in total offense.The 15th-ranked Volunteers (9-3) allowed a school-record 288 points, breaking the old mark set in 1988 with 286 points. The Vols allowed 102 points in the last three games against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Auburn in the Southeastern Conference championship game. The defense played poorly after having fabulous outings against Georgia and Alabama. Junior Rick Clausen will start as planned in Saturday's game against Texas A&M, but look for Tennessee to rely on RBs Cedric Houston and Gerald Riggs but WR Robert Meachem still could be a weapon against an A&M defense that gave up some big plays this year. Houston is 57 yards from giving the Vols two 1,000-yard rushers for the first time. For the sake of argument, let’s just say Rick Clausen takes a mammoth shot in the first quarter and heads to the trainer’s table for the day. Then what? Then it’s C.J. Leak’s turn. Brent Schaffer (collarbone) won’t make the trip to Texas, so if Clausen goes down, Leak will be forced to run the show. The fourth-string quarterback has yet to throw a pass this year after moving over to linebacker, but with the way Vols pivots have been hitting the shelf, it wouldn’t be overly surprising to see Leak taking some snaps before this one's over. Tennessee’s scoring about 34 points a game over its last three, but has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests. Plus, the Vols are just 1-6 straight up in the postseason since claiming the national championship in 1998. Texas A&M comes to play, jumps on the Vols early and forces Clausen to make throws he is not capable of.
Texas A&M 29, Tennessee 17
The Hawkeyes have won seven straight, four of them over bowl teams. Iowa coach Ferentz and LSU lame-duck coach Nick Saban worked in offices 15 feet apart when they were assistants with the Cleveland Browns in 1993 and 1994. They've coached against each other only once, when Ferentz's first Iowa team lost to Saban's Michigan State Spartans 49-3 in 1999. Even two solid defensive teams like Purdue and Georgia a year ago couldn't slow a trend that has seen five of the last six games go OVER the total. Iowa has the 117th ranked rushing offense in NCAA D-1, so it's not likely that they will have much success on the ground against the Tigers. Ferentz is a great bowl game coach and has used trick plays and bottom-of-the-playbook stuff that has not been used all season to give his team a spark in these events. Even though both these teams are known for their defense, I believe we will see some offenses come to life in Orlando today. Good weather and the last game for the LSU staff will mean every play in the book will come out today. I have this total set at 51 in my handicapping with a slight lean to LSU due only to their balance offensively. LSU 27, Iowa 24
I don't have a clear feeling about where these guys are going into the biggest game of Mack Brown's career at Texas, but watching the Alamo and Holiday Bowls the last couple of days has given me what I think is at least a little bit of insight into who Texas is as a team and what type of an opponent they can expect to face in Michigan. Ohio State's easy blowout of Oklahoma State told me this: the Big 10 is a power conference, populated with big, strong, physical football players as well as some guys with surprising speed. Ohio State impressed me with the ease with which they dispatched a talented Oklahoma State team, even though the Cowboys went south a bit over the last half of the season. Point is, I am expecting to see a Wolverine squad that is at least comparable to the Buckeyes in terms of size, speed and physicality. These guys will slug it out with Texas, and will present a huge physical challenge for the Longhorns. Watching Texas Tech basically blow California out in the Holiday Bowl also told me that Texas, which slapped Texas Tech silly in Lubbock, is certainly one of the best teams in college football when it gets rolling on both sides of the ball. I believe Texas can win this game if it executes, keeps the turnovers to a minimum, and eliminates penalties. They don't have to play a perfect game, just a focused, emotional one, and no mistakes from Mr. Young at quarterback.
Texas finally got their wish by getting a BCS bid this year. The funny thing is, for all the talk about Mack Brown "politicking" for the bid and the leap over Cal in the standings, this may have been the right way all along. Cedric Benson will turn out the lights on a magical college carreer his eight year career by rushing for over 150 yards, but Texas wins it with their Derrick Johnson-led defense, which will leave the Wolverines freshman QB Henne in a very vulnerable position. While Michigan has weapons on the outside with Braylon Edwards and running back Michael Hart, it will be the speed and physical play up front and pressure on Henne that will turn this game. Michigan will get some yards between the 20's... but I believe Texas has more game-changers than Michigan, particularly with guys like Young, Cedric Benson and Johnson on the field and will ultimately prove the more explosive team. I sense that the Longhorns pass rush will put so much pressure on Henne that it will force the QB into bad decisions. First of all, the Horns match-up well with Michigan. I like UT's rush offense against the Wolverines' run D. Over the final three games of the season, Michigan gave up 397 yards on the ground to Michigan State and then 200++ to both Northwestern and Ohio State. OSU QB Troy Smith torched the Wolverine defense for 145 yards on 18 carries and MSU QBs Dowell and Stanton totaled 112 yards on 18 carries. The Wolverines focus will be on slowing Vince Young's running and forcing him to pass, but that's easier said than done. Michigan couldn't stop three lesser athletes than Young, and those QBs didn't have a backfield runner like Cedric Benson. Young finished the season completing 52 of 79 attempts for 698 yards. I also like the Longhorn D vs. the Michigan run game. Braylon Edwards will get his yards. He got them vs. Notre Dame and Ohio State, the Wolverines' two losses. The more important stats from those losses are Michigan's rushing yards: 56 vs. the Irish and 71 vs. the Buckeyes. Edwards will not beat Texas, but Michael Hart could. Greg Robinson knows it, and will scheme accordingly... and speaking of Robinson, his influence on the attitude of this team is another of the aspects that make me like the Horns in this one. No way is this team unprepared, in scheme or in attitude, as have been some Longhorn bowl teams of recent vintage. I expect Texas to be ready. Texas will not stand a chance against Braylon Edwards, if Chad Henne has time to throw the football, but if the second half of the Texas A&M game is any indication, the rookie won't be sitting in the pocket and picking out the open WR's. The Wolverine defense was torn to shreds by Ohio State, who was able to mix pass and run with a mobile quarterback. The difference is that Ohio State didn't have Cedric Benson. The favorite in the Rose Bowl game has won three in a row SU & ATS after losing the previous four ATS. Also, the UNDER has hit in five straight years, and the designated home team is on a run of 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games. Texas 27, Michigan 14
Four words: Wyatt Sexton/Chris Rix. These two will have to play the game of a lifetime against WVU, but the Seminole D will definitely show up. WVU is a one dimensional team now that Rasheed Marshall seems to have lost his ability to throw the ball downfield. With FSU keying on the Mountaineer running backs, Marshall will be handicapped without any real help on the outside. Florida State can shut down the WVU attack, do just enough to move the ball and the clock, and hopefully the double-headed monster of SextonRix won't do anything too stupid to cause turnovers in the red zone or give WVU a short field. Bowden knows he is hamstrung at the skill positions offensively so even if Craphonso Thope could go at WR for FSU, he really doesn't have anyone to get him the ball downfield. This one will be played close to the vest by FSU and are the more talented team defensively. A game played not to lose or fuck it up is boring, but will move the clock and cash the tickets. As for West Virginia, the Mountaineers couldn't win the watered-down Big East losing at home to Boston College 36-17, when a win would have clinched a BCS bid and a $14 million payday. WVU also lost at Va Tech and Pitt plus needed overtime to beat pathetic Maryland, 19-16. West Virginia's marquee win of the year came in a road win at U Conn (31-19)... Florida State 24, West Virginia 13