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Insider Edge Sports – Report For Thursday, April 29, 2004
Thursday’s Free Card
After our stellar 1-3 performance on Wednesday, here is our entire card for Thursday. Hopefully, things will go much better – all baseball releases are afternoon games.
NBA
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings 10:30 PM ET
Over 207.5 Dallas/Sacramento –110 (2 Units)
Dallas and Sacramento put up 183 and 186 points in games 3 and 4 respectively in Dallas after scoring 162 points in game 2 at Sacramento. Yet the total isn’t coming down as much as one would think thus making the under bet a definite trap in the making. The Mavs might have been a little too comfortable at home. They didn't shoot well and definitely didn't match the Kings' intensity in game 4. The Mavericks, who led the league in the regular season with a .796 free throw percentage, missed 13 of 33 tries from the line, including 10 of 18 in the first half. That was bad. So was their shooting from the field, where they finished at 34.7%. Sacramento wasn’t much better. The Kings prevailed despite only one basket in the final 2:11, 39.6% shooting overall and a 1-for-10 start by Peja Stojakovic. The last 3 games have been more about futile offenses than superior defense. "Have we turned into defensive juggernauts? I don't think so," Mavericks assistant Del Harris said. "But we're both capable of playing good defense for stretches, whether that's eight minutes or 30 minutes. For us, it's usually closer to the eight." A return home should be a good change for Sacramento. "I know we can score against them, but not if we play like we did in the last game," Kings coach Rick Adelman said. "We're like Dallas. We have to rely on our offense to be successful. We're not good enough defensively to do it any other way." As Harris added: "These are still the two highest-scoring teams in the league. They could show up at any time." This could very well be the time…big time.
MLB
Houston Astros (Pettitte) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Wells) 12:35 PM ET
Pittsburgh (Wells) +136 (2 Units)
Kip Wells is coming off a rare bad home outing as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings against the Reds last week. Prior to that, he has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 3 home starts dating back to last season. After a spectacular 2003 season where he went 10-9 with a 2.89 ERA, he led the league last season in home ERA by starters as he posted a 2.12 ERA at PNC Park. He has allowed more than 2 runs in only one of his starts this season (the most recent) and the Pirates are 7-4 in Wells’ last 11 starts. He has not fared well against the Astros in his career, going just 2-3 but he has faced Houston only once in his home park as all of the other starts came on the road. A very misleading stat for Wells is his .269 career BAA against Houston. In reality, he is allowing .243 (25-103) BAA to current Astros. Andy Pettitte makes his first start since coming off the disabled list. Prior to that, his start in Houston was not good as he was hit hard in his opener against the Giants. He has never started against the Pirates, which will definitely be an advantage for him, but he will be fortunate to last 5 innings. Pettitte expects to be held to about 75 or 80 pitches. "Any time it starts warming up you feel like you get a little bit stronger and get a little bit more on your fastball and stuff," Pettitte said. "No doubt as far as arm strength it's disappointing. I want to feel like I could go out and throw a complete game this time of year. That's really unrealistic right now unless I do it in 70 pitches." The Pirates are hitting .317 on the season against lefties at home. Houston is hitting .285 against righties this year and .248 their last 10 games. Pittsburgh still has one of the best bullpens in the league, as the staff has posted a 2.89 ERA on the season. Before yesterday, the Astros *****'t been able to take batting practice on the field prior to a game since their most recent game at Minute Maid Park, April 22 against the Cardinals. The combination of bad weather and two afternoon starts last weekend in Colorado kept them from taking BP. They were off Monday and couldn't hit Tuesday in Pittsburgh because of rain and cold weather. That could slow the bats down even more.
National League Game of the Week
Florida Marlins (Penny) at San Francisco Giants (Williams) 4:05 PM ET
San Francisco (Williams) –115 (3 Units)
Jerome Williams is off to a terrific start this season. Last year’s Rookie of the Year candidate is 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his first 4 starts of the season. The Giants are 3-1 in those starts and they have provided a decent amount of run support in the last 3 wins, scoring 5.3 rpg. This is the first meeting between these two teams since their NLDS series last season in which the Marlins obviously won as big underdogs. San Francisco will be welcoming them with open arms as they look for some redemption to that huge upset. On top of that list will be Williams who was the starter in that fateful game 4. He allowed 3 runs on 5 hits in only 2 innings of work and he will be out looking to make up for that effort. He will also be looking to make up for a mistake in his last game. He was an out away from a complete game but ended up going 8.2 innings. "I wanted to finish that game so bad, but the bullpen came in and did their job," Williams said. "I was one out away, and I hung a changeup. I kind of wanted to beat myself up for that." After a bad spring, he seems to be fully back. "Everybody knows that I was down in spring training," he said. "I told everyone I was just around the corner. I'm on the corner now." Brad Penny has been equally impressive but it’s hard not to ignore the fact that 2 of his 4 starts have come against Montreal, who is last in the Majors in most offensive categories. The Marlins actually lost one of hose games that Penny started. Penny is 1-4 in his 5 career starts against the Giants, including a 1-2 record last season. His two starts at then-called Pac Bell Park resulted in 0 wins and a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings pitched. The Marlins played and early evening game in Colorado on Wednesday and then had to travel to San Francisco for this afternoon affair. The Giants remain home so they have a big edge on rest time and travel issues.
Seattle Mariners (Pineiro) at Baltimore Orioles (DuBose) 3:05 PM ET
Baltimore (DuBose) –1.5 +160 (2 Units)
Joel Pineiro is off to a very rocky start. Even though he has had success against the Orioles in the past, the ‘what have you done for me lately’ adage takes precedence here. He is 1-2 with an 8.46 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in his 4 starts this season. He has allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of his 4 starts and the longball has been a big problem as he has allowed 6 home runs already this year after allowing 19 all of last season. His road ERA this season is 8.49 in his two starts and pitching away from home has always been an issue. His road ERA is 1.42 runs higher away from home (4.35-2.93) than it is in his own park throughout his career. He along with the bullpen has allowed at least six runs in 6 of his last 10 starts. Even Pineiro is clueless. "The weird part is that I felt great," Pineiro said. "I felt much better than I did when I pitched against these guys in Seattle and allowed only two runs. I'm starting to wonder what's going on." Not good when your pitcher is second guessing himself. Eric DuBose has gotten stronger as the season has progressed. He has a 1.29 ERA in his last two starts, going 2-0 with Baltimore winning those games by a combined 18-3 over the Blue Jays. Going back to last season, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts, a very impressive number. Last season, the Orioles scored 3 rpg in his final 6 starts and only 2 total runs in his first tow starts this season. He started against Seattle twice last season, going 8 innings in both outings and allowing a total of 3 earned runs (1.69 ERA). The best part about DuBose, known to be more of a control pitcher than anything else, was that his velocity has increased throughout the season peaking at 92 MPH in his last outing. Seattle is hitting lefties well but the Orioles are hitting righties that much better.
After our stellar 1-3 performance on Wednesday, here is our entire card for Thursday. Hopefully, things will go much better – all baseball releases are afternoon games.
NBA
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings 10:30 PM ET
Over 207.5 Dallas/Sacramento –110 (2 Units)
Dallas and Sacramento put up 183 and 186 points in games 3 and 4 respectively in Dallas after scoring 162 points in game 2 at Sacramento. Yet the total isn’t coming down as much as one would think thus making the under bet a definite trap in the making. The Mavs might have been a little too comfortable at home. They didn't shoot well and definitely didn't match the Kings' intensity in game 4. The Mavericks, who led the league in the regular season with a .796 free throw percentage, missed 13 of 33 tries from the line, including 10 of 18 in the first half. That was bad. So was their shooting from the field, where they finished at 34.7%. Sacramento wasn’t much better. The Kings prevailed despite only one basket in the final 2:11, 39.6% shooting overall and a 1-for-10 start by Peja Stojakovic. The last 3 games have been more about futile offenses than superior defense. "Have we turned into defensive juggernauts? I don't think so," Mavericks assistant Del Harris said. "But we're both capable of playing good defense for stretches, whether that's eight minutes or 30 minutes. For us, it's usually closer to the eight." A return home should be a good change for Sacramento. "I know we can score against them, but not if we play like we did in the last game," Kings coach Rick Adelman said. "We're like Dallas. We have to rely on our offense to be successful. We're not good enough defensively to do it any other way." As Harris added: "These are still the two highest-scoring teams in the league. They could show up at any time." This could very well be the time…big time.
MLB
Houston Astros (Pettitte) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Wells) 12:35 PM ET
Pittsburgh (Wells) +136 (2 Units)
Kip Wells is coming off a rare bad home outing as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings against the Reds last week. Prior to that, he has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 3 home starts dating back to last season. After a spectacular 2003 season where he went 10-9 with a 2.89 ERA, he led the league last season in home ERA by starters as he posted a 2.12 ERA at PNC Park. He has allowed more than 2 runs in only one of his starts this season (the most recent) and the Pirates are 7-4 in Wells’ last 11 starts. He has not fared well against the Astros in his career, going just 2-3 but he has faced Houston only once in his home park as all of the other starts came on the road. A very misleading stat for Wells is his .269 career BAA against Houston. In reality, he is allowing .243 (25-103) BAA to current Astros. Andy Pettitte makes his first start since coming off the disabled list. Prior to that, his start in Houston was not good as he was hit hard in his opener against the Giants. He has never started against the Pirates, which will definitely be an advantage for him, but he will be fortunate to last 5 innings. Pettitte expects to be held to about 75 or 80 pitches. "Any time it starts warming up you feel like you get a little bit stronger and get a little bit more on your fastball and stuff," Pettitte said. "No doubt as far as arm strength it's disappointing. I want to feel like I could go out and throw a complete game this time of year. That's really unrealistic right now unless I do it in 70 pitches." The Pirates are hitting .317 on the season against lefties at home. Houston is hitting .285 against righties this year and .248 their last 10 games. Pittsburgh still has one of the best bullpens in the league, as the staff has posted a 2.89 ERA on the season. Before yesterday, the Astros *****'t been able to take batting practice on the field prior to a game since their most recent game at Minute Maid Park, April 22 against the Cardinals. The combination of bad weather and two afternoon starts last weekend in Colorado kept them from taking BP. They were off Monday and couldn't hit Tuesday in Pittsburgh because of rain and cold weather. That could slow the bats down even more.
National League Game of the Week
Florida Marlins (Penny) at San Francisco Giants (Williams) 4:05 PM ET
San Francisco (Williams) –115 (3 Units)
Jerome Williams is off to a terrific start this season. Last year’s Rookie of the Year candidate is 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his first 4 starts of the season. The Giants are 3-1 in those starts and they have provided a decent amount of run support in the last 3 wins, scoring 5.3 rpg. This is the first meeting between these two teams since their NLDS series last season in which the Marlins obviously won as big underdogs. San Francisco will be welcoming them with open arms as they look for some redemption to that huge upset. On top of that list will be Williams who was the starter in that fateful game 4. He allowed 3 runs on 5 hits in only 2 innings of work and he will be out looking to make up for that effort. He will also be looking to make up for a mistake in his last game. He was an out away from a complete game but ended up going 8.2 innings. "I wanted to finish that game so bad, but the bullpen came in and did their job," Williams said. "I was one out away, and I hung a changeup. I kind of wanted to beat myself up for that." After a bad spring, he seems to be fully back. "Everybody knows that I was down in spring training," he said. "I told everyone I was just around the corner. I'm on the corner now." Brad Penny has been equally impressive but it’s hard not to ignore the fact that 2 of his 4 starts have come against Montreal, who is last in the Majors in most offensive categories. The Marlins actually lost one of hose games that Penny started. Penny is 1-4 in his 5 career starts against the Giants, including a 1-2 record last season. His two starts at then-called Pac Bell Park resulted in 0 wins and a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings pitched. The Marlins played and early evening game in Colorado on Wednesday and then had to travel to San Francisco for this afternoon affair. The Giants remain home so they have a big edge on rest time and travel issues.
Seattle Mariners (Pineiro) at Baltimore Orioles (DuBose) 3:05 PM ET
Baltimore (DuBose) –1.5 +160 (2 Units)
Joel Pineiro is off to a very rocky start. Even though he has had success against the Orioles in the past, the ‘what have you done for me lately’ adage takes precedence here. He is 1-2 with an 8.46 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in his 4 starts this season. He has allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of his 4 starts and the longball has been a big problem as he has allowed 6 home runs already this year after allowing 19 all of last season. His road ERA this season is 8.49 in his two starts and pitching away from home has always been an issue. His road ERA is 1.42 runs higher away from home (4.35-2.93) than it is in his own park throughout his career. He along with the bullpen has allowed at least six runs in 6 of his last 10 starts. Even Pineiro is clueless. "The weird part is that I felt great," Pineiro said. "I felt much better than I did when I pitched against these guys in Seattle and allowed only two runs. I'm starting to wonder what's going on." Not good when your pitcher is second guessing himself. Eric DuBose has gotten stronger as the season has progressed. He has a 1.29 ERA in his last two starts, going 2-0 with Baltimore winning those games by a combined 18-3 over the Blue Jays. Going back to last season, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts, a very impressive number. Last season, the Orioles scored 3 rpg in his final 6 starts and only 2 total runs in his first tow starts this season. He started against Seattle twice last season, going 8 innings in both outings and allowing a total of 3 earned runs (1.69 ERA). The best part about DuBose, known to be more of a control pitcher than anything else, was that his velocity has increased throughout the season peaking at 92 MPH in his last outing. Seattle is hitting lefties well but the Orioles are hitting righties that much better.