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By Doug Upstone of www.VegasProInsidersDaily.com
Let's talk some line moves in the NFL for Week 8. We have fresh ones and updates on the others we already covered. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (389-306-10 in 2018, 10-6 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.*
NFL – (253) CLEVELAND at (254) PITTSBURGH* 1:00 ET* CBS
The total is in this AFC North confrontation is down two points from opening, sitting now at 49. That still leaves this as the highest-ever total between these combatants and it is a full eight points higher than there Week 1 contest when it closed at 41. Both teams have leans towards a lower score. I promise to have an answer for you on Sunday. Update - One more tick down to 48.5. Despite this, I think Pittsburgh will set the tempo and we are looking at 31-20 win for the Steelers.
Betting Trend - Was 53% backing Under, now 43%
Doug's VPID Take*- Lean Over
NFL – (255) DENVER at (258) KANSAS CITY *1:00 ET* CBS
Didn't see this coming, the total in this AFC West rematch is has fallen from 55.5 to 53.5. Perception is the driving force with bettor's thinking back to their Monday meeting when Kansas City came from behind to win 27-23. With the Chiefs favored by 10 and the total adjusted, oddsmakers are essentially forecasting a 32-21 final score. In truth, that sounds about right. For the most part, past trends are useless about K.C. this season, meaning execution and turnovers will be the deciding factor. Update - There has not been any movement on this total and I can see why it looks on the nose. I'll take the OVER, but only by the slightest of margins, with Chefs (old Snickers TV ad) a 34-20 winner
Betting Trend -*Was 70% backing Over, now 73%
Doug's VPID Take*- Slight lean Over
NFL – (265) BALTIMORE at (266) CAROLINA 1:00 ET* CBS
This caught me a bit off guard, as Carolina was flipped from -1 to +2 point home underdogs. In theory, I agree Baltimore should be the better team, but how do you overlook the fact of the Ravens are 4-3? Baltimore has not been able to win when they don't play their best. Conversely, Carolina has. They were dreadful at Philadelphia last week in trailing 17-0, but turned it on when it counted and won 21-17. The word for that is gumption and the Panthers are 18-7 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375 more yards a game. Update - Baltimore's been bumped up to -2.5. Having watched both several times, I really don't feel I now either team. You see talent, but also lapses in effort. Just a* nod the Panthers being at home.
Betting Trend -*Was 63% backing Carolina, now 66%
Doug's VPID Take*- Lean Carolina
More Free Picks at www.VegasProInsidersDaily.com************ ***************
Become a VPID Inner Circle and Receive Plays from FIVE of the Best Documented Handicapping Experts on the Planet, plus Super Systems, Wise Guys plays and so much more. Only $99.99 a month for all sports (auto renewal), cancel at any time. Doug's on a 14-6 run in the NFL. https://www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com/membership/
Let's talk some line moves in the NFL for Week 8. We have fresh ones and updates on the others we already covered. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (389-306-10 in 2018, 10-6 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.*
NFL – (253) CLEVELAND at (254) PITTSBURGH* 1:00 ET* CBS
The total is in this AFC North confrontation is down two points from opening, sitting now at 49. That still leaves this as the highest-ever total between these combatants and it is a full eight points higher than there Week 1 contest when it closed at 41. Both teams have leans towards a lower score. I promise to have an answer for you on Sunday. Update - One more tick down to 48.5. Despite this, I think Pittsburgh will set the tempo and we are looking at 31-20 win for the Steelers.
Betting Trend - Was 53% backing Under, now 43%
Doug's VPID Take*- Lean Over
NFL – (255) DENVER at (258) KANSAS CITY *1:00 ET* CBS
Didn't see this coming, the total in this AFC West rematch is has fallen from 55.5 to 53.5. Perception is the driving force with bettor's thinking back to their Monday meeting when Kansas City came from behind to win 27-23. With the Chiefs favored by 10 and the total adjusted, oddsmakers are essentially forecasting a 32-21 final score. In truth, that sounds about right. For the most part, past trends are useless about K.C. this season, meaning execution and turnovers will be the deciding factor. Update - There has not been any movement on this total and I can see why it looks on the nose. I'll take the OVER, but only by the slightest of margins, with Chefs (old Snickers TV ad) a 34-20 winner
Betting Trend -*Was 70% backing Over, now 73%
Doug's VPID Take*- Slight lean Over
NFL – (265) BALTIMORE at (266) CAROLINA 1:00 ET* CBS
This caught me a bit off guard, as Carolina was flipped from -1 to +2 point home underdogs. In theory, I agree Baltimore should be the better team, but how do you overlook the fact of the Ravens are 4-3? Baltimore has not been able to win when they don't play their best. Conversely, Carolina has. They were dreadful at Philadelphia last week in trailing 17-0, but turned it on when it counted and won 21-17. The word for that is gumption and the Panthers are 18-7 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375 more yards a game. Update - Baltimore's been bumped up to -2.5. Having watched both several times, I really don't feel I now either team. You see talent, but also lapses in effort. Just a* nod the Panthers being at home.
Betting Trend -*Was 63% backing Carolina, now 66%
Doug's VPID Take*- Lean Carolina
More Free Picks at www.VegasProInsidersDaily.com************ ***************
Become a VPID Inner Circle and Receive Plays from FIVE of the Best Documented Handicapping Experts on the Planet, plus Super Systems, Wise Guys plays and so much more. Only $99.99 a month for all sports (auto renewal), cancel at any time. Doug's on a 14-6 run in the NFL. https://www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com/membership/