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Sat was a 7-1 day with the ncaa bb totals going 4-0, the ncaa bb sides 1-1 and the nhl winning with the kings +1.95. A plus 7.90 unit day. Its nice to get those once in awhile.
Today 2 plays this morning and one from last night. Scroll down in blog for last nights sunday total.
[820] UTAH v GOLDEN STATE u225½
[855] FAIRFIELD v NIAGARA o136½
Email:
Good job with the plays this year, especially the NCAA totals. I just had a recommendation in regards to the middling of games that you have the best of the closing number by 2-3pts. You bet the first line and then the line moves, therefore you beat the market by 2pts and this is a +EV play, then the 2nd game comes around and this game is at the new and improved market price. This game provides no value to you and you are only betting it because of the middling opportunity with the first game, this is in effect, a -EV bet. Why not just keep the first bet, which is over time probably a 54-55% play based on the line move alone? Maybe I am missing something, but I figured I'd throw this out there.
My Response:
I agree with you in principle and for the most part I follow that. With the ncaa bb totals however the last variable I use I dont have until early morning the day of the games. If I wait however as you can see some very good opportunities are missed. So If the last variable is neutral or positive I hold onto the play and if its contrary I look to middle out of the play before the game. In reality the 2nd play in the middle should have the positive ev if I middle and my analysis is correct.
Look for a few more plays later...maybe in the nhl and am considering a ncaa bb side later.
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Ncaa baskets 08-09 season
Sides 13-16 -3.85
Totals 127-102-4 +19.50
2nd half sides 5-5 -0.25
Updated nhl
NHL 08-09
Sides: 15-18 +4.05
NHL 07-08
Sides 10-18 -5.60
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10
conbined NHL
Sides: 60-72 +5.11
Totals: 4-6-2 -2.10
Today 2 plays this morning and one from last night. Scroll down in blog for last nights sunday total.
[820] UTAH v GOLDEN STATE u225½
[855] FAIRFIELD v NIAGARA o136½
Email:
Good job with the plays this year, especially the NCAA totals. I just had a recommendation in regards to the middling of games that you have the best of the closing number by 2-3pts. You bet the first line and then the line moves, therefore you beat the market by 2pts and this is a +EV play, then the 2nd game comes around and this game is at the new and improved market price. This game provides no value to you and you are only betting it because of the middling opportunity with the first game, this is in effect, a -EV bet. Why not just keep the first bet, which is over time probably a 54-55% play based on the line move alone? Maybe I am missing something, but I figured I'd throw this out there.
My Response:
I agree with you in principle and for the most part I follow that. With the ncaa bb totals however the last variable I use I dont have until early morning the day of the games. If I wait however as you can see some very good opportunities are missed. So If the last variable is neutral or positive I hold onto the play and if its contrary I look to middle out of the play before the game. In reality the 2nd play in the middle should have the positive ev if I middle and my analysis is correct.
Look for a few more plays later...maybe in the nhl and am considering a ncaa bb side later.
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Ncaa baskets 08-09 season
Sides 13-16 -3.85
Totals 127-102-4 +19.50
2nd half sides 5-5 -0.25
Updated nhl
NHL 08-09
Sides: 15-18 +4.05
NHL 07-08
Sides 10-18 -5.60
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10
conbined NHL
Sides: 60-72 +5.11
Totals: 4-6-2 -2.10