Tweet
Hit OVER (Premium) and Washington (free) in Hall of Fame.
Free pick tonight is Giants and Lions OVER 31:
Sure the Giants have a rash of injuries at the receiver spot but that’s an area where the team is loaded. Meanwhile Detroit won’t be nearly as pass-happy without Mike Martz calling the shots offensively. Certainly Jim Colletto will try to bring more balance to the attack. But as we saw last Sunday in Canton, teams with new offensive schemes are more daring in preseason (Washington 30 points). This total has dipped to 31, the same number we saw at the Hall of Fame game. That is extremely low for a game being played indoors without Mother Nature’s influence and on a fast surface with field turf. Certainly you could make the argument the qualify of reserve quarterbacks isn’t great with the likes of Anthony Wright, David Carr, and Andre Woodson all likely to line up behind center for the Big Blue. Meanwhile Drew Stanton and Dan Orlovsky are expected to follow Jon Kitna for the home team. Remember though, did anybody expect Quinn Gray to throw for 160 yards or throw 19 times after being in Indianapolis camp for less than a week? Along the same lines, it certainly appeared Colt Brennan (9 of 10 with two touchdowns) loved firing against the Colt scrubs rather than the Georgia defense like last year’s Sugar Bowl. Plus quite often in the preseason, bad quarterback play can easily result in defensive points. We saw that last week when tub of goo Jared Lorenzen threw a pick returned 38 yards for the final Washington score with less than two minutes last week to ruin a few teasers involving ‘UNDER’ for some players. The opening preseason game for Detroit has concluded with 33 or more points in four of the last five years. Catch this: Since 2001, 13 of the 14 preseason games at the Pontiac SilverDome have produced 33 or more points. Last week I mentioned because of a rash of ‘UNDERS’ last year in the preseason, the line maker would overcompensate this year. We saw that already in the Hall of Fame game. The 31 total posted by Indianapolis was the lowest in the Dungy era and the shortest total posted for a Colts game this decade (regular or preseason). Ditto tonight! There hasn’t been a 31 for any Detroit preseason game this decade. As for the G-Men, this is the lowest total for them in the preseason since the opener of the 2002 season against Houston when the 30 ½ total was shattered with a 34-17 final (exceeded by 20 ½ points). Coughlin isn’t about to risk injuries with any of the Giant defensive pass rushers, so Detroit will have time to throw. Last time I checked, the Detroit secondary and especially their corners were miserable. Get a load of these defensive team rankings posted by the Lions last year: #32 and dead last in total defense; #31 versus the pass, #29 in sacks, and #23 versus the run. Just too low when you consider 17-14 pushes this total. Go ‘OVER’ like ‘ROVER’ tonight at 31 as a 2* free opinion. Mark “The Animal” hit last Sunday’s preseason play with Washington.
Mark "The Animal"
TheRealAnimal.com
[email protected]
Analysis from last Sunday's Hall of Fame game:
Total
31 is the lowest preseason total this decade for the Indianapolis Colts. Prior to today, the lowest total for the Colts under Tony Dungy’s regime (regular or preseason) was 34 in last year’s opener at Dallas (finished 33) and 35 in the 2003 debut at Chicago (finished 38). Sure Peyton Manning is out and Jim Sorgi is about the only guy playing that’s familiar with the Colts system. Jared Lorenzen and Quinn Gray have been wearing horseshoes on their helmets for less than a week. Rookie Adam Tafralis from San Jose State is about as green as you can get. But the Colts on offense at least still have Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes, and Mike Hart at running back and Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzales at receiver. Marvin Harrison won’t play but there are still ample weapons and especially when you consider whom the Skins are missing on defense. That list includes Jason Taylor, London Fletcher, LaRon Landry, Carlos Rogers, Rocky McIntosh, Anthony Montgomery, and Erasmus James. Scoring at home that’s seven of the 11 starters on defense for the Skins.
While quarterback coach at Seattle, Coach Jim Zorn and the Seahawks have scored 19 or more points in 11 of their last 14 games. Part of that was because Seattle had two solid quarterbacks in Matt Hasselbeck and Seneca Wallace, who was extremely difficult to defend for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string defenders in practice games. Wallace wasn’t worth a damn against starting units but he could light up the scrubs. Zorn comes to town with a new offense implementing the west coast offense. If Jason Campbell is ever going to flourish, it will be under Zorn. Campbell ran a type of west coast offense at Auburn in his senior year when the Tigers were 13-0. Todd Collins is next in line and all he did was complete 66 percent with a 5-0 TD to pick ratio in the last four regular season games a year ago. Don’t look for rookie gunslinger Colt Brennan to hand off in the 2nd half Sunday night either. The Skins aren’t exactly loaded at running back for this one when you consider Portis and Ladell Betts are both sidelined.
Coach Dungy has indicated the starters on defense will only play a series with the reserves seeing plenty of action in the opening quarter. That starting group is without Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, and the departed Anthony Booger McFarland and Rob Morris. Plus 3rd round pick, linebacker Philip Wheeler, is out and needs knee surgery.
Certainly ‘UNDERS’ in NFL preseason were prevalent a year ago and especially in the opening two weeks. It’s not like the Redskins and Colts will face each other anytime soon in the regular season and need to “hold back”. Sure both teams haven’t been in camp long and “vanilla” is likely to be the key ingredient in both offensive game plans. But 31 is just a ridiculously low number especially with the barrage of defensive starters missing in action. While the defenses should be ahead of the offenses less than two weeks since camps opened, that doesn’t mean turnovers won’t result producing short fields. But once again, it’s August 3rd and rust figures to be a factor along with an advanced program (80 players on rosters). Don’t go nuts. I’m seeing the 31 total at BoDog, Pinnacle, BetCris, and Bookmaker among others. 3* ‘OVER’ 31.
It’s year #6 for Coach Dungy at Indianapolis. Here are the numbers so far with the Colts: 61-17 SU in the regular season. 7-4 in the playoffs. But 7-14 in the preseason. That computes to a winning percentage of 76.4 percent when games count and 33.3 percent when they don’t. In week #1 of practice games, Dungy is 1-4 SU including a 13-point loss at Dallas in the 2007 debut. Curiously the Cowboys, also from the NFC East like Washington, were breaking in a new coach in Wade Phillips. In Canton on Sunday night, Jim Zorn makes his head-coaching debut with the Redskins. Zorn certainly paid his dues at Seattle as the QB coach for the past nine years and was an assistant for 18 seasons. For those of us who remember Zorn lining up behind center, this will astound you. It has been 24 years since he played (man do I feel old).
I think Zorn is a good fit because it’s been a while since the Skins have had a reliable quarterback. Let’s face it, that’s become a necessity in this league. He certainly is partially responsible for the success of Matt Hasselbeck and something I like for the purpose of this analysis, is the way back-up Seneca Wallace played in the preseason for the Hawks, who have won and covered at least half of their preseason games each of the past five years (something the Colts can’t boast about). While the Colts are certainly polished in their system and personnel, Zorn is introducing the west coast offense in Washington, suggesting these preseason games could play more importance to quarterbacks Jason Campbell, Todd Collins (sensational in final four games of 2007 with a 5-0 TD/Pick ratio), rookie Colt Brennan, and Sam Hollenbach. Just an FYI: The last time Campbell played in the west coast offense was his senior year at Auburn when the Tigers went 13-0 and a claim of the NCAA national championship.
How bad is the QB position for the Colts? Well before July 28th, Jim Sorgi and rookie free agent Adam Tafralis from San Jose State were the only other options. The Colts had to strengthen the depth chart on the 28th of last month by signing former Giant hefty man Jared Lorenzen and Quinn Gray, formally of Jacksonville. Lorenzen became available after the Giants signed David Carr and drafted Andre Woodson. Gray started four games the past three years with the Jaguars and I can recall a Monday night game when he was flat out miserable.
Dungy said this week the first-string offense might play longer than the defensive starters. But added midway through the first quarter the Colts want to play the younger guys. That’s a scary proposition when you consider the Redskins will likely play the first half with Campbell, the undisputed starter, or Collins, who played the final six games last year.
Plenty of starters will sit this one out including Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders for the Colts. Clinton Portis, Jason Taylor, Carlos Rogers, Chris Samuels, and London Fletcher are expected to miss for Washington. The Colts appear to have an edge at the running back spot. Following Joseph Addai, will be Dominic Rhodes (back from injury), and rookie Mike Hart. LaDell Betts also not expected to play for the Redskins and he’s the #2 man in the backfield behind Portis. Moss, Randel El, and James Thrash probably won’t play much and the Skins have four tight ends, which will all see plenty of action. Because of injuries, Coach Zorn might be forced to spread out those tight ends in the 2nd half and play them at wide receiver.
Side:
This is certainly not an easy game to handicap. I found it interesting the Skins broke camp on July 19th while the Colts opened things up on the 24th, five days later. This means Indianapolis has only been at camp 10 days and of course two quarterbacks in Lorenzen and Gray, didn’t arrive until the 29th or five days ago. Given Dungy’s dismal preseason record and the intangible of Zorn coaching his first game, I’m inclined to use the Redskins. Washington fans are certainly in abundance in Canton with the induction of Darrell Green and Art Monk into the Hall of Fame last night. The Skins are 4-0 historically in the Hall of Fame game. But don’t get too excited. Remember, the 2nd half we will have $$ riding on rookie Colt Brennan and Derek Devine throwing to receivers named Maurice Mann, Burt Toler, and Horace Gant. 2* Top opinion on Washington –4 ½ at Olympic, BetUS, etc.
Free pick tonight is Giants and Lions OVER 31:
Sure the Giants have a rash of injuries at the receiver spot but that’s an area where the team is loaded. Meanwhile Detroit won’t be nearly as pass-happy without Mike Martz calling the shots offensively. Certainly Jim Colletto will try to bring more balance to the attack. But as we saw last Sunday in Canton, teams with new offensive schemes are more daring in preseason (Washington 30 points). This total has dipped to 31, the same number we saw at the Hall of Fame game. That is extremely low for a game being played indoors without Mother Nature’s influence and on a fast surface with field turf. Certainly you could make the argument the qualify of reserve quarterbacks isn’t great with the likes of Anthony Wright, David Carr, and Andre Woodson all likely to line up behind center for the Big Blue. Meanwhile Drew Stanton and Dan Orlovsky are expected to follow Jon Kitna for the home team. Remember though, did anybody expect Quinn Gray to throw for 160 yards or throw 19 times after being in Indianapolis camp for less than a week? Along the same lines, it certainly appeared Colt Brennan (9 of 10 with two touchdowns) loved firing against the Colt scrubs rather than the Georgia defense like last year’s Sugar Bowl. Plus quite often in the preseason, bad quarterback play can easily result in defensive points. We saw that last week when tub of goo Jared Lorenzen threw a pick returned 38 yards for the final Washington score with less than two minutes last week to ruin a few teasers involving ‘UNDER’ for some players. The opening preseason game for Detroit has concluded with 33 or more points in four of the last five years. Catch this: Since 2001, 13 of the 14 preseason games at the Pontiac SilverDome have produced 33 or more points. Last week I mentioned because of a rash of ‘UNDERS’ last year in the preseason, the line maker would overcompensate this year. We saw that already in the Hall of Fame game. The 31 total posted by Indianapolis was the lowest in the Dungy era and the shortest total posted for a Colts game this decade (regular or preseason). Ditto tonight! There hasn’t been a 31 for any Detroit preseason game this decade. As for the G-Men, this is the lowest total for them in the preseason since the opener of the 2002 season against Houston when the 30 ½ total was shattered with a 34-17 final (exceeded by 20 ½ points). Coughlin isn’t about to risk injuries with any of the Giant defensive pass rushers, so Detroit will have time to throw. Last time I checked, the Detroit secondary and especially their corners were miserable. Get a load of these defensive team rankings posted by the Lions last year: #32 and dead last in total defense; #31 versus the pass, #29 in sacks, and #23 versus the run. Just too low when you consider 17-14 pushes this total. Go ‘OVER’ like ‘ROVER’ tonight at 31 as a 2* free opinion. Mark “The Animal” hit last Sunday’s preseason play with Washington.
Mark "The Animal"
TheRealAnimal.com
[email protected]
Analysis from last Sunday's Hall of Fame game:
Total
31 is the lowest preseason total this decade for the Indianapolis Colts. Prior to today, the lowest total for the Colts under Tony Dungy’s regime (regular or preseason) was 34 in last year’s opener at Dallas (finished 33) and 35 in the 2003 debut at Chicago (finished 38). Sure Peyton Manning is out and Jim Sorgi is about the only guy playing that’s familiar with the Colts system. Jared Lorenzen and Quinn Gray have been wearing horseshoes on their helmets for less than a week. Rookie Adam Tafralis from San Jose State is about as green as you can get. But the Colts on offense at least still have Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes, and Mike Hart at running back and Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzales at receiver. Marvin Harrison won’t play but there are still ample weapons and especially when you consider whom the Skins are missing on defense. That list includes Jason Taylor, London Fletcher, LaRon Landry, Carlos Rogers, Rocky McIntosh, Anthony Montgomery, and Erasmus James. Scoring at home that’s seven of the 11 starters on defense for the Skins.
While quarterback coach at Seattle, Coach Jim Zorn and the Seahawks have scored 19 or more points in 11 of their last 14 games. Part of that was because Seattle had two solid quarterbacks in Matt Hasselbeck and Seneca Wallace, who was extremely difficult to defend for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string defenders in practice games. Wallace wasn’t worth a damn against starting units but he could light up the scrubs. Zorn comes to town with a new offense implementing the west coast offense. If Jason Campbell is ever going to flourish, it will be under Zorn. Campbell ran a type of west coast offense at Auburn in his senior year when the Tigers were 13-0. Todd Collins is next in line and all he did was complete 66 percent with a 5-0 TD to pick ratio in the last four regular season games a year ago. Don’t look for rookie gunslinger Colt Brennan to hand off in the 2nd half Sunday night either. The Skins aren’t exactly loaded at running back for this one when you consider Portis and Ladell Betts are both sidelined.
Coach Dungy has indicated the starters on defense will only play a series with the reserves seeing plenty of action in the opening quarter. That starting group is without Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, and the departed Anthony Booger McFarland and Rob Morris. Plus 3rd round pick, linebacker Philip Wheeler, is out and needs knee surgery.
Certainly ‘UNDERS’ in NFL preseason were prevalent a year ago and especially in the opening two weeks. It’s not like the Redskins and Colts will face each other anytime soon in the regular season and need to “hold back”. Sure both teams haven’t been in camp long and “vanilla” is likely to be the key ingredient in both offensive game plans. But 31 is just a ridiculously low number especially with the barrage of defensive starters missing in action. While the defenses should be ahead of the offenses less than two weeks since camps opened, that doesn’t mean turnovers won’t result producing short fields. But once again, it’s August 3rd and rust figures to be a factor along with an advanced program (80 players on rosters). Don’t go nuts. I’m seeing the 31 total at BoDog, Pinnacle, BetCris, and Bookmaker among others. 3* ‘OVER’ 31.
It’s year #6 for Coach Dungy at Indianapolis. Here are the numbers so far with the Colts: 61-17 SU in the regular season. 7-4 in the playoffs. But 7-14 in the preseason. That computes to a winning percentage of 76.4 percent when games count and 33.3 percent when they don’t. In week #1 of practice games, Dungy is 1-4 SU including a 13-point loss at Dallas in the 2007 debut. Curiously the Cowboys, also from the NFC East like Washington, were breaking in a new coach in Wade Phillips. In Canton on Sunday night, Jim Zorn makes his head-coaching debut with the Redskins. Zorn certainly paid his dues at Seattle as the QB coach for the past nine years and was an assistant for 18 seasons. For those of us who remember Zorn lining up behind center, this will astound you. It has been 24 years since he played (man do I feel old).
I think Zorn is a good fit because it’s been a while since the Skins have had a reliable quarterback. Let’s face it, that’s become a necessity in this league. He certainly is partially responsible for the success of Matt Hasselbeck and something I like for the purpose of this analysis, is the way back-up Seneca Wallace played in the preseason for the Hawks, who have won and covered at least half of their preseason games each of the past five years (something the Colts can’t boast about). While the Colts are certainly polished in their system and personnel, Zorn is introducing the west coast offense in Washington, suggesting these preseason games could play more importance to quarterbacks Jason Campbell, Todd Collins (sensational in final four games of 2007 with a 5-0 TD/Pick ratio), rookie Colt Brennan, and Sam Hollenbach. Just an FYI: The last time Campbell played in the west coast offense was his senior year at Auburn when the Tigers went 13-0 and a claim of the NCAA national championship.
How bad is the QB position for the Colts? Well before July 28th, Jim Sorgi and rookie free agent Adam Tafralis from San Jose State were the only other options. The Colts had to strengthen the depth chart on the 28th of last month by signing former Giant hefty man Jared Lorenzen and Quinn Gray, formally of Jacksonville. Lorenzen became available after the Giants signed David Carr and drafted Andre Woodson. Gray started four games the past three years with the Jaguars and I can recall a Monday night game when he was flat out miserable.
Dungy said this week the first-string offense might play longer than the defensive starters. But added midway through the first quarter the Colts want to play the younger guys. That’s a scary proposition when you consider the Redskins will likely play the first half with Campbell, the undisputed starter, or Collins, who played the final six games last year.
Plenty of starters will sit this one out including Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders for the Colts. Clinton Portis, Jason Taylor, Carlos Rogers, Chris Samuels, and London Fletcher are expected to miss for Washington. The Colts appear to have an edge at the running back spot. Following Joseph Addai, will be Dominic Rhodes (back from injury), and rookie Mike Hart. LaDell Betts also not expected to play for the Redskins and he’s the #2 man in the backfield behind Portis. Moss, Randel El, and James Thrash probably won’t play much and the Skins have four tight ends, which will all see plenty of action. Because of injuries, Coach Zorn might be forced to spread out those tight ends in the 2nd half and play them at wide receiver.
Side:
This is certainly not an easy game to handicap. I found it interesting the Skins broke camp on July 19th while the Colts opened things up on the 24th, five days later. This means Indianapolis has only been at camp 10 days and of course two quarterbacks in Lorenzen and Gray, didn’t arrive until the 29th or five days ago. Given Dungy’s dismal preseason record and the intangible of Zorn coaching his first game, I’m inclined to use the Redskins. Washington fans are certainly in abundance in Canton with the induction of Darrell Green and Art Monk into the Hall of Fame last night. The Skins are 4-0 historically in the Hall of Fame game. But don’t get too excited. Remember, the 2nd half we will have $$ riding on rookie Colt Brennan and Derek Devine throwing to receivers named Maurice Mann, Burt Toler, and Horace Gant. 2* Top opinion on Washington –4 ½ at Olympic, BetUS, etc.