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consider when handicapping your games at this time of the year. How will
weather affect the games? How does the end of season affect home field
advantage?
In very bad weather conditions including heavy snow, driving rain or high
winds, offenses have trouble throwing deep with accuracy. Consequently,
they often rely on running the ball more while avoiding long passes.
Defenses are also aware of the difficulty in the passing game, and can
utilize formations and schemes that are stronger against the run and short
to mid-range passes.
At Pinnacle Sportsbook, we see the effect of the offensive and defensive
adjustments as twofold: there are fewer total plays in the game due to
fewer clock stoppages, and there are fewer first downs as defenses are not
spread as thin. These taken together can make a game total plummet.
A less obvious effect of foul weather is on games with large spreads. If
you have a 14-point favorite in a game with a total of 42, you “expect”
the score to be 28-14. If a blizzard sweeps through an outdoor stadium and
lowers the total to 35, you expect each team to score about 17% less than
under normal conditions. While the public is quick to jump on the total,
at Pinnacle Sports book we’ve found that they are much slower to jump on
an under-priced dog getting 14 points instead of 11 or 12. Remember, the
lower the total, the more valuable points become (both for sides and
teasers).
Another area to consider in games played in bad weather is a team’s
particular strengths and weaknesses. Teams with exceptional running
attacks and run defenses are at less of a disadvantage (or even at an
advantage) in games where the run is forced. On the other hand, teams
relying on the passing game will suffer more. Your ideal weather play
would be a big dog that runs the ball well, against a favorite that relies
heavily on passing.
In addition to extreme weather, there is another end-of-season factor:
inflated home field advantages. We all know that teams do better at home -
winning about 59% of all games with a median margin of victory of 3. What
a lot of people don’t realize is that the advantage changes during the
season, peaking during the final 4 weeks.
Calculating the home field advantage is simple if you have a database. You
simply add up the points scored by home teams, subtract points scored by
visitors and divide by the number of games played. If you did that from
1994-2004, you will see that the home field advantage is about 2.5 points
per game. In the last 4 weeks in each of those years, this number goes up
to 3.6 points per game. The moral of the story is that teams want to win
at home near the season’s end no matter how good or bad they are.
It’s worth remembering these concepts towards the end of the regular
season when weather and home field advantage are often factors for
consideration. To see if there are any games that fit these criteria this
week, you can view all of our live Pinnacle Sports betting lines at
pinnacle sports You will also find updated wagering lines on the
games listed below where we have already seen some interesting line
movement this week.
New York Jets (+9) at Miami
After winning 3 straight games, the 6-7 Dolphins are still mathematically
in the playoff hunt. If they win out against the Jets, Tennessee and New
England and the Patriots lose their last 3 games to Tampa Bay, the Jets
and Miami, the Dolphins would make the playoffs by winning the AFC East.
There are some other unusual situations where Miami could receive a wild
card, but those require some rather convoluted analysis better saved for
others.
Our opener of Miami -7.5 was greeted by a flurry of sharps. The early
players laid the 7.5 and 8, or even sold down to -9 +110. The combined
pressure of early sharp money and teaser exposure on a low-totalled game,
has forced us to move aggressively on this match up.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Minnesota
Minnesota doesn’t seem to get much respect these days. Despite winning 6
straight games and being in the midst of the playoff hunt, statistics
betray them. They are the only team with a winning record that has more
points allowed (286) than points scored (246). In 8 wins, the Vikings have
only beaten one team with a winning record.
We opened this game at -2.5 -116. A wide variety of sharps took Pittsburgh
at this opener and backed them all the way up to -3 -105 and -2 -137. So
far, this has been one of our highest volume games on the card.
Arkansas St. (+17) v. So. Mississippi (New Orleans Bowl)
The New Orleans Bowl kicks off the bowl season in Lafayette, LA. due to
Hurricane Katrina. Both Arkansas St. and Southern Mississippi finished at
6-5 on the regular season. The Golden Eagles became bowl eligible thanks
to tiebreakers after being in a 3-way tie to win Conference USA. Likewise,
the Indians advanced on tiebreakers after splitting the Sun Belt
conference championship 3 ways.
Arkansas St. was a Div I-AA team from 1982-1991 and this season has been a
year of achievement for their football program. Since stepping up to
Div-I, their only other winning season came in 1995. At 6-5, they are
ecstatic to make their first Div-I postseason appearance since the 1970
Pecan Bowl.
We opened this game at -17 flat. While the sharps have mostly stayed off
this game, the public have a slight preference for Southern Miss. We were
slowly accumulating a position on the Golden Eagles as we gradually raised
the price. Offering Arkansas St. at +100 and +101 was just cheap enough to
balance our position.
Boston College (-1) vs. Boise St (MPC Computers Bowl)
Boise St. is playing in its 4th Computers Bowl and the Broncos have won
all 3 of their prior appearances. The Boise St. Broncos - famous for their
blue turf - will have home field advantage in this match-up. No team wants
to play on the blue against Boise St. and for good reason. The Broncos
have won 30 consecutive games at home, a streak which began on September
22, 2001.
We initially opened this game at Boston College +3 a week ago and saw
moderate volume of mainly public money on the underdog. Although there
were a few sharps on Boston College, a majority of them seem to favor
Boise St. at +1 -108 to +2 -110.