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LAST WEEKS WINNING PICKS – SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ENGLAND, GREEN BAY & DALLAS
(ONLY BALTIMORE LOST!)
COLTS 5/1 TO MAKE A PERFECT RUN AT ’72 DOLPHINS
We seem to begin every week with Indy but, at this stage of the season,
it’s hard to see past the Colts in terms of the outright betting for the
title. After last week’s win over Houston, we’ve had to shorten them again
to 6/4, while they’re only 5/1 (from 6/1) to go the season unbeaten.
Carolina are now joint-second favorites after destroying the Jets with 20
fourth quarter points, along with Pittsburgh who were 8.5 point winning
favorites at home to Cleveland. Altogether, it was good week for the
favorites, with ten winning, and the best performance coming from
Jacksonville, who scored 30 points for the first time in 59 games to beat
the line by 20.
bet365 latest Super Bowl prices … Indianapolis 6/4, Pittsburgh, Carolina
8/1, Seattle 10/1, Denver 12/1, New England, Atlanta 14/1, others on bet365 website.
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI – BET LIVE IN PLAY
Su Nov 20 – 4:15 pm EST/21:15 GMT
This week’s road game against Cincinnati provides Indy with one of their stiffest tests so far, but they’ve got this far without breaking sweat and bettors have seemingly already forgiven them for not covering last week’s monster 17.5-point spread, after their emotional win over the Pats the previous week. They still remain a perfect 5-0 both SU (straight up) and ATS on the road, and that makes them banker material giving up a 5.5-point start against Cincy (expect that line to move nearer game time). But don’t
expect a shootout. The two teams are ranked one and two in the NFL for
points allowed, so it’s tempting to parlay the ‘under’ with the Colts for
this live match-up (live betting available via our ‘In-Play Console’).
Pick 1: Indianapolis (-5.5) @ 10/11 / ‘Under’ 32 points, both at 10/11. A $50 parlay pays out $191.34 - which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY – BET LIVE IN PLAY
Mo Nov 21 – 9:00 pm EST (ABC)/02:00 GMT
For this week’s second pick, we’re sticking with Green Bay, who did us a
good turn by covering last week in Atlanta, despite fielding a depleted WR and RB corps. They also statistically outplayed Pittsburgh the week before, and much of that is down to the previously unknown RB Samkon Gado. The ex-Liberty player was handed the ball 25 times at Atlanta, producing 103 yards and two touchdowns, and his promotion into a lead position looks to have turned the fortune of the whole team around. You wouldn’t normally be backing 2-7 teams as 4.5-point favorites at this time of year but GB are the exception up against as bad a football team as Minnesota. The Vikings may have beaten the Giants last week, but were out gained 405-137, but their win can be put down as one of those wacky results you get from time to time in the NFL.
Pick 2: Green Bay (-4.5) @ 10/11
The big value in the Monday night game, however, has to be the total which is currently set at 44.5. There are many different variations of value, but the bottom line is finding a number that is not what you think it should be, and this is way too high. The two teams played three weeks ago, when the score was 23-20 to Minnesota (in a dome), with Daunte Culpepper playing his best game of the season. Now without Culpepper, the Vikings didn’t score any offensive touchdowns against the Giants, while the Packers didn’t
score much either. Both team defenses are also playing better now so take
the ‘under’. Again, we’ll have live betting available via our ‘In-Play
Console’.
Minnesota @ Green Bay - Under 44.5 points @ 10/11
CASH IN ‘OVER’ WASHINGTON
Su Nov 20 – 1:00 pm EST/18:00 GMT
At the opposite end of the scale, the number for the game in Washington
looks lower than it should be (currently 43). The fact that the Redskins are supposed to have one of the best defenses in the NFL could account for the artificially low number, but that plays to our advantage as a bettor. Both of these teams come into the game struggling on the defensive side of the ball, having each allowed over 27 points per game in their last three games (three of the last four meetings have also gone over), and there’s no
reason to be believe that Sunday will be any different.
Oakland @ Washington - Over 43 points @ 10/11
GET MORE BACK FOR HITTING YOUR PARLAYS
We’ll be backing all our picks in singles (as serious bettors should), but it’s hard to resist a speculative parlay wager each weekend, especially as you’re assured of getting an extra value here at bet365 with our Parlay
Bonus. Each week, we pay out up to 50% more on successful NFL & NCAAF
parlays on the following 6 markets:-
Point Spread, Game Total, First Half Point Spread, Second Half Point
Spread, First Half Total, Second Half Total.
This weekend’s suggested parlay is on the following teams:
Indianapolis (-5.5); Dallas (-8.0); Green Bay (-4.5); Chicago (+3.0) and Cleveland (-2.0). All teams are currently priced at 10/11, and a $50 parlay
pays out $730.59 - which includes a bet365 bonus of 15%
BET IT LIVE WITH 365
You can’t beat the adrenaline rush of the live game, and that’s when our
In-Play service kicks in via our new ‘In-Play Console’, which has all the odds and markets on one convenient page (just click on the link on the top left-hand side of the home page). This weekend’s live games are:
Ohio State @ Michigan
Sa Nov 19 – 1:00 pm EST/18:00 GMT
Penn State @ Michigan State
Sa Nov 19 – 4:00 pm EST/21:00 GMT
TB Buccaneers @ ATL Falcons
Su Nov 20 – 1:00 pm EST/18:00 GMT
IND Colts @ CIN Bengals
Su Nov 20 – 4:15 pm EST/21:15 GMT
KC Chiefs @ HOU Texans
Su Nov 20 – 8:30 pm EST (ESPN)/01:30 GMT
MIN Vikings @ GB Packers
Mo Nov 21 – 9:00 pm EST/02:00 GMT
Good luck in Week 11.
NASCAR
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SUPERSUB WALLACE CAN RIDE AGAIN AT 20/1
Su Nov 20 – 3:00 pm EST (NBC)/20:00 GMT
It’s been a long ol’ season, but the final lap is in sight for the NASCAR
drivers who, this week, descend on Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Ford
400. And, after nine races in Nextel’s ‘Chase for the Cup’, the standings show that it’s Tony Stewart’s title to lose. Stewart finished fourth on Sunday in Phoenix to stretch his lead to 52 points over Jimmie Johnson, and can win his second championship by finishing ninth or better this week. That’s good news for all the ‘in the game’ readers who hopefully took my
advice to back him at 6/4 before the Chase began! However, as Stewart is
likely to play it safe, he might not be the best bet to win this week.
As usual, on this type of track, all the Roush drivers are in contention,
along with Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon, but there’ll be no-one trying harder to win than Jimmie Johnson. He was better than Stewart for most of last week’s race but lost more ground when fading at the end to finish seventh. He knows he’ll need Stewart to falter at Homestead for him to have any chance of winning the title, but he’s always been a good finisher, with three top-tens in the final race of the season in the last three years. At a pre-practice price of 13/2, he just gets the nod over the third-ranked driver Carl Edwards (and 11/2 favorite), who’ll also be going to into the race with an aggressive mind-set. Now 87 points behind the front two, he’ll need bad luck for both Stewart and Johnson to win the title.
If there’s going to be a ‘shock’, then look no further than veteran Kenny Wallace, who last week stepped in for the suspended Kurt Busch in the Roush Racing No.97 car. That was a surprise call up for the 42-year-old younger brother of Rusty (who retires this week), and he didn’t let his old friend Jack Roush down by finishing a highly respectable 16th (despite starting from the back of the grid), his highest finish in 13 Cup starts in two years. This week, ‘Supersub’ has had a full week to prepare, and it wouldn’t be a total shock to see him take the checkered flag on a track
where he has a good record. In fact, it wouldn’t be that much of a shock at
all, and he’s worth a small wager at the bet365 price of 20/1. Once the
race gets under way, don’t forget to check out our live betting via the
‘In-Play Console’ on our homepage.
Nigel’s FORD 400 Pick: Jimmie Johnson @ 13/2; Kenny Wallace @ 20/1
(Each-way 1/5 odds 1.2.3
bet365 latest FORD 400 prices … Carl Edwards 11/2, Greg Biffle 6/1, Jimmie Johnson 13/2, Tony Stewart 15/2, Matt Kenseth 10/1, others on bet365 website.
Get in the game and be lucky!
Nigel.
Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings.