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To the uninitiated the mechanics of the stock market can seem somewhat of
a mystery. The rise and fall of share prices can be difficult to pre-empt
as market reaction normally occurs a full week before good or bad news is
released, yet once the information hits the headlines, it creates barely a ripple. For an average investor waiting to act until after good news is
released is a quick route to the poor house. Many times, I’ve sat on my
hands and watched a stock rise or fall during the day, and later thought
“if only I bought it before the price shot up, or shorted before it
tanked!”
While this can seem difficult to achieve without a crystal ball or
privileged information, you can get a jump on sports or financial markets
and turn that edge into profit. Instead of waiting for public reports
(from SEC filings to midweek injury reports), you can often gain
information just by closely monitoring price movements.
For a good recent stock illustration of this principle, look no further
than the recent crash of Northfield Laboratories. The company was testing
a human-blood substitute, with a critical progress report expected on
December 19 after the close of markets. That afternoon the “line” on the
stock dropped from over 14 to 11. Nearly 30% of its shares had been “sold
short” – an investor’s way of betting the stock will crash. With those two
signs, most people correctly assumed the report would be bad. The “betting
pattern” on this stock revealed the failure long before the public
announcement. The stock dropped over 50% the day after its failed test
results were disclosed, rewarding those who understood the move and bet
against Northfield.
To apply this theory to sports, consider this scenario: Payton Manning
(listed as questionable) is sitting in the locker room on Sunday morning
with worried head-coach, Tony Dungy. “How does your tweaked thumb feel?”
Dungy asks. His star quarterback frowns, and replies, “Not good. I have no
touch on the ball, so I’ll probably give it one more week to heal.” The
scene changes to you sitting at home in front of your computer, scratching
your head and wondering why line on the Colts moved from -3 -104 to -3
+111 at Pinnacle Sportsbook?
A few of the other larger-limit sportsbooks have already reacted by moving
their lines significantly, but not everyone. Regardless of whether you
know Manning’s injury status, the line moves at the big books tell all you
need to know. Mannings’ participation was questionable, the line is moving
swiftly against Indy, so the market thinks the Colts are less likely to
win QED – the negative prognosis on Manning’s injury is spreading to
Sportsbooks. Anytime you see a 10+ cent move, you can get the best of it
by “chasing the steam” – in this case, fading the Colts at slower-moving
small sportsbooks. These books obviously hate it when players beat them to
the punch, and may even throw you out, but not before nicely padding your
bankroll.
In stocks and sports, information is money. While you can gain indirect
information from watching price moves, nothing in sports betting is as
profitable as gaining first-hand injury information. Without hiding in the
locker room or knowing the personal trainers, you aren’t going to outguess
NFL injury announcements. Set you sights a little lower and change the
focus to smaller sports. Start reading University and regional newspapers
covering smaller schools that have Div I-A and I-AA programs, covered by
sportsbooks.
Many times, key player or coaching information - dynamite for smart
players - goes unnoticed past kickoff. These smaller events do not attract
syndicate action, leaving them ripe for more casual players. If it sounds
like we’re repeating ourselves, it’s because the point is crucial for
smaller players. If you bet $1000 or less per game, you will profit
handsomely by focusing outside of professional sports. The lines for these
events do not react quickly, if at all, to player injuries, weather or
coaching announcements.
If you are a smaller player looking to move up, pick a single minor sport
and hone in on it. Try Ivy League football, Albanian Soccer, Greek
basketball, or any event that is not covered on the front page of ESPN or
USA Today’s sports section that has valuable information available with a
bit of digging. For two weeks, try to spend 15 minutes a day researching
that one area. With this little time spent, you’ll likely find some nice
opportunities. If you try this, we at Pinnacle Sports Betting would like
to know how it goes. Send your findings to: [email protected].
Arizona +13.5 -107 v. San Diego
The Chargers already have a first-round bye in the playoffs, and are
looking to clinch the #1 seed in the AFC. They can do that with a win or a
Baltimore loss against Buffalo. The difference between the #1 and #2 seed
only matters if both of those seeds win their first playoff game. This is
nowhere near as critical as the dropdown to #3, where a team no longer
receives a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Despite this being our most heavily traded game of the week, the opener of
+13.5 (-104) has barely moved. The public has favors the Cardinals
slightly by a 3-to-2 ratio, while our early sharp players don’t have a
consensus on this game. End of the year games are often difficult to
handicap because it’s difficult to know how motivated a team will be if it
is already eliminated from the post season. Additionally, coaches have to
balance starter playing time and minimizing injuries before the playoff
run. The market line of +13.5 suggests that the Chargers will bring their
“A” game and try to extend their nine game win streak.
Jacksonville +1 +117 versus Kansas City
The winner of this match-up has the possibility of advancing to the
playoffs. Both teams are eliminated by losing this game, or if either
Cincinnati or Tennessee wins. The Jaguars also need the New York Jests to
lose, while Kansas City needs Denver to lose. If Jacksonville wins this
early game, Denver secures a Wild Card before its late match-up against
San Francisco. One way to exploit this is to parlay Jacksonville on the
moneyline with San Francisco (who will be playing an unmotivated and
resting Broncos team if the Jags win).
We opened Jacksonville at +3 (-113) and had somewhat more volume on the
Jags, pushing the game off the “3”. Rather than trading this game in the
“teaser zone” of +1.5 to +2.5, we moved to +1 (+117).
Michigan +1 -102 v. USC
Although the Wolverines were nearly playing for the National Championship,
they now find themselves playing the underdog role in the Rose Bowl.
Michigan opened as a 2-point favorite and betting to this point favors
them by a 5-to-2 margin. Many of the larger players favor USC, forcing the
line to continue downward.
Boise St. +7 -103 v. Oklahoma
This is the week’s “sharps versus public” match-up. We opened the Broncos
as 8-point dogs. While there are twice as many players backing Oklahoma,
some of the sharps have played Boise St. with most taking +8 and +7.5.
At 12-0, Boise State’s Bowl appearance was limited by its easy schedule
(ranked #100 for strength of schedule). Its two most significant wins were
against Hawaii (41-34) and Oregon State (42-14). The public is quick to
back a traditional powerhouse against a WAC team regardless of the line.
Anytime there are such knee-jerk reactions, sharp play will keep the line
honest.
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