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Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
There have now been 48 games completed in the group stage and 14 knock-out
games played in the 2006 World Cup. As the tournament reaches its climax
in Berlin this weekend, handicappers and sharp bettors have more and more
information available for analysis.
Many people were surprised that the Italy vs. France total opened at 1.5
goals. For diehard handicappers playing at the Pinnacle Sports book, this
was expected. How did they know? Many handicappers use a universal
handicapping system which can be used to set lines for any sport and
requires only minimal adjustments for injuries and other situational
factors.
Whether you are handicapping a total in baseball or soccer, the first step
in any sport is to set a baseline figure for an average game. In other
words, how many goals are scored in an average game during regulation
time?
In the group stage, there were 117 goals scored in 48 games, for an
average offensive production (and defense allowed) of 2.44 goals per match
resulting in 1.22 goals per team per game.
In the knockout stages, there have been 21 goals scored in 14 games during
regulation time, for an average of 0.75 goals per team per game (excluding
any extra time played or penalty shoot outs). If you combined the two,
your “baseline” is 1.11 goals per team per game (138 goals in 62 games).
The next step in setting your baseline is to compare each team’s offense
and defense against this average.
France has scored 8 goals while allowing 2 goals in its 6 games played so
far. Les Bleus’ defense was 0.78 goals per game better than average (1.11
– 2/6), while its offense was 0.22 goals better than average (8/6-1.11).
France’s offensive “power rating” would be +0.22, while its defensive
rating would be -0.78 (with negative numbers being good for defensive
ratings).
Meanwhile Italy has scored 9 goals in regulation while allowing just 1
against (count the own goal against the US as a goal allowed). Italy’s
offensive rating would be (9/6 – 1.11) = +0.39, while its defensive rating
would be (1/6 – 1.1) = -0.94.
The Azzurri’s offensive rating might be slightly understated though, since
we did not include the 2 goals they scored in overtime against Germany in
the semi-final. The reason for this is that only goals scored during
regulation time count for betting purposes when wagering on total goals.
With these raw numbers, you can now make an estimate of how much each team
will score in regulation. How many goals would we expect Italy to score?
Start with your league average (1.11 goals per team per game), add Italy’s
offensive rating (+0.39) and France’s defensive rating (-0.78). This
suggests that we expect Italy to score about 0.72 goals, but remember that
all teams tend to revert to the mean/average.
I “revert to the mean” by averaging this with the league average of 1.11
goals, for 0.92 expected goals (1.11+0.72/2 = 0.92). For France, we
initially expect (1.11 + 0.22 – 0.94) = 0.39 goals. Averaging this with
the league average 1.11 goals per game, we expect 0.75 goals.
If you want to convert these expected goals to a moneyline price for
“Italy to win the World Cup”, simply take Italy’s expected goals, divide
by France’s expected goals, and multiply by -100. In this case, it would
be (0.92 / 0.75 * -100) = -123, which is pretty close to the current odds
for Italy.
If you want to convert these numbers to a game total, simply add the team
expected goals, and using probability theory check a Poisson distribution
for any odds you want to set. For example, if you wanted a price on over
1.5, look at the Poisson function for (.92 + .75 = 1.67). Oddly enough,
this goes under 1.5 50.3% of the time, and over 49.7% (exactly on market
price).
There are a few more things you can add in to gain additional precision.
The first is an adjustment for “strength of schedule” by simply comparing
how a team’s previous opponents did against the league/tournament average.
While this becomes less important when many games are played, it can be
extremely important in short tournaments or when it is early in the
season.
Before firing off your bet, you should also consider situational factors.
For example, France’s striker Louis Saha will miss the final due to a
suspension for receiving two yellow yards in the knock out stages. While
you may decide that this shouldn’t have an impact on the game, you must
ALWAYS check the teams for injuries and suspensions in any sport. Failing
to account for missing players is one of the easiest ways to the poor
house.
I hope you have enjoyed the first year of the “Pinnacle Pulse” from
Pinnacle Sports betting. We will be taking a short break from the column
over the summer but will return when the NFL preseason begins. In the
meantime, feel free to write with your questions to
[email protected] and I will try to include the answers in
future columns.
What are players betting?
Italy vs. France under 1.5 -108
We are seeing a recurring pattern among many of our sharps. They play the
under on the match, and sell off their position during the live betting.
60% of the goals scored in the knockout stages have come in the second
half (with similar distributions in most soccer leagues). However the
public’s pattern for live betting has been nearly oblivious to this,
treating it as more of a 50/50 distribution.
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