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PITCHING
Shutouts Thrown: Arizona, Florida, and Boston have all used dominant starting pitching as starting points for playoff success. Teams that have more shutouts than their opponents over the course of the season have won 68% of the playoff series since 1995. 2005 playoff teams and the number of shutouts thrown this year:
" Atlanta, 12
" Boston, 8
" Chicago, 10
" Houston, 11
" Angels, 11
" New York, 14
" San Diego, 8
" St. Louis, 14.
Fewest Hits Allowed: The team that has allowed fewer hits during the season has won 64% of the playoff series since 1995. This year's Hits Allowed number for each team:
" Atlanta, 1463
" Boston, 1527
" White Sox, 1377
" Houston, 1318
" Angels, 1400
" Yankees, 1477
" San Diego, 1442
" St. Louis, 1380.
Strikeouts Thrown: 60% of all playoff series since 1995 have been won by the team throwing more strikeouts than their opponent. Number of strikeouts in 2005:
" Atlanta, 918
" Boston, 947
" Chicago, 1025
" Houston, 1149
" Angels, 1104
" Yankees, 968
" San Diego, 1117
" St. Louis, 957.
Home Runs Allowed: If you give up fewer homeruns than your opponent during the season, you win 58% of the time in the playoffs. Home Runs allowed this year for the playoff teams:
" Atlanta, 143
" Boston, 161
" Chicago, 167
" Houston, 154
" Angels, 157
" Yankees, 158
" San Diego, 144
" St. Louis, 147.
Earned Run Average: On the surface this would seem to be one of the major indicators regarding playoff success. It isn't, however. The team with the bettor ERA has won only 54% of the playoff rounds. Bullpen ERA isn't any better. Only 53% of the teams with a bettor bullpen (that season) win the series.
HITTING
Strikeouts: If you make contact at the plate, you have done better in the playoffs. The team with fewer strikeouts has won 59% of playoff series since 1995. Number of strikeouts for 2005 playoff teams:
" Atlanta, 1439
" Boston, 1568
" White Sox, 1443
" Houston, 1389
" Angels, 1511
" Yankees, 1541
" San Diego, 1407
" St. Louis, 1478.
Stolen bases: Dave Roberts, the player who has the most famous stolen base in recent history, argues that the stolen base, and threat of it, plays a huge role in the playoffs. His reasoning may be a job security tactic, but it does have some truth behind it. The team that has more stolen bases during the season has won 56% of the playoff series. When Roberts stole 2nd in game 4 of the ALCS last season, he turned what would have been an embarrassing four game sweep into a historical comeback. 2005 stolen bases:
" Atlanta, 92
" Boston, 45
" Chicago, 137
" Cleveland, 62
" Houston, 114
" Angels, 159
" Yankees, 84
" San Diego, 96
" St. Louis, 83.
On-base percentage: Roberts wouldn't have been able to steal 2nd had Kevin Millar not walked to lead off the 9th inning. Lost in the hype of the stolen base was good plate discipline from Millar, who was then replaced on first by Roberts. The team with the better on-base percentage over the course of the season wins 55% of the playoff series. 2005 OB%:
" Atlanta, 332
" Boston, 356
" White Sox, 323
" Houston, 322
" Angels, 325
" Yankees, 355
" San Diego, 333
" St. Louis, .338.
Other offensive statistics and their relevance to winning playoff teams:
Runs Scored to Runs Allowed ratio: 54%
Higher Batting Average: 54%
More Home Runs: 52%
There is a clever cliché in baseball that says "Good pitching stops good hitting, and vice versa." During the playoffs, you typically can eliminate the back half of that cliché. Teams that do well, the numbers indicate, are those that have stronger pitching than their opponents.
The offensive skills of a team are secondary to its run prevention side. When looking at the playoff series bets, look first at the starting rotation. More often than not, that will tell you the winner.
Shutouts Thrown: Arizona, Florida, and Boston have all used dominant starting pitching as starting points for playoff success. Teams that have more shutouts than their opponents over the course of the season have won 68% of the playoff series since 1995. 2005 playoff teams and the number of shutouts thrown this year:
" Atlanta, 12
" Boston, 8
" Chicago, 10
" Houston, 11
" Angels, 11
" New York, 14
" San Diego, 8
" St. Louis, 14.
Fewest Hits Allowed: The team that has allowed fewer hits during the season has won 64% of the playoff series since 1995. This year's Hits Allowed number for each team:
" Atlanta, 1463
" Boston, 1527
" White Sox, 1377
" Houston, 1318
" Angels, 1400
" Yankees, 1477
" San Diego, 1442
" St. Louis, 1380.
Strikeouts Thrown: 60% of all playoff series since 1995 have been won by the team throwing more strikeouts than their opponent. Number of strikeouts in 2005:
" Atlanta, 918
" Boston, 947
" Chicago, 1025
" Houston, 1149
" Angels, 1104
" Yankees, 968
" San Diego, 1117
" St. Louis, 957.
Home Runs Allowed: If you give up fewer homeruns than your opponent during the season, you win 58% of the time in the playoffs. Home Runs allowed this year for the playoff teams:
" Atlanta, 143
" Boston, 161
" Chicago, 167
" Houston, 154
" Angels, 157
" Yankees, 158
" San Diego, 144
" St. Louis, 147.
Earned Run Average: On the surface this would seem to be one of the major indicators regarding playoff success. It isn't, however. The team with the bettor ERA has won only 54% of the playoff rounds. Bullpen ERA isn't any better. Only 53% of the teams with a bettor bullpen (that season) win the series.
HITTING
Strikeouts: If you make contact at the plate, you have done better in the playoffs. The team with fewer strikeouts has won 59% of playoff series since 1995. Number of strikeouts for 2005 playoff teams:
" Atlanta, 1439
" Boston, 1568
" White Sox, 1443
" Houston, 1389
" Angels, 1511
" Yankees, 1541
" San Diego, 1407
" St. Louis, 1478.
Stolen bases: Dave Roberts, the player who has the most famous stolen base in recent history, argues that the stolen base, and threat of it, plays a huge role in the playoffs. His reasoning may be a job security tactic, but it does have some truth behind it. The team that has more stolen bases during the season has won 56% of the playoff series. When Roberts stole 2nd in game 4 of the ALCS last season, he turned what would have been an embarrassing four game sweep into a historical comeback. 2005 stolen bases:
" Atlanta, 92
" Boston, 45
" Chicago, 137
" Cleveland, 62
" Houston, 114
" Angels, 159
" Yankees, 84
" San Diego, 96
" St. Louis, 83.
On-base percentage: Roberts wouldn't have been able to steal 2nd had Kevin Millar not walked to lead off the 9th inning. Lost in the hype of the stolen base was good plate discipline from Millar, who was then replaced on first by Roberts. The team with the better on-base percentage over the course of the season wins 55% of the playoff series. 2005 OB%:
" Atlanta, 332
" Boston, 356
" White Sox, 323
" Houston, 322
" Angels, 325
" Yankees, 355
" San Diego, 333
" St. Louis, .338.
Other offensive statistics and their relevance to winning playoff teams:
Runs Scored to Runs Allowed ratio: 54%
Higher Batting Average: 54%
More Home Runs: 52%
There is a clever cliché in baseball that says "Good pitching stops good hitting, and vice versa." During the playoffs, you typically can eliminate the back half of that cliché. Teams that do well, the numbers indicate, are those that have stronger pitching than their opponents.
The offensive skills of a team are secondary to its run prevention side. When looking at the playoff series bets, look first at the starting rotation. More often than not, that will tell you the winner.