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Super Bowl Handicapping: Key Trends and Statistics
The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the sporting and television event of the year. It is also clearly the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone seems to have some sort of interest in the game. The Super Bowl, like Christmas mass to absentee churchgoers, seems to bring even the most novice of bettors out of the woodwork. Don't think for a moment that oddsmakers don't realize this, as the wagering options are increased multi-fold for the big game. Square pools, ATS and Total wagers, Teasers, Propositions, oh my, it's like a bettor's buffet. Unfortunately, many go uneducated into the process, and wake up the next morning not only with a hangover, but without any money left to buy their morning coffee. After reading this article, everyone should be much wiser come Super Bowl XXXIX Sunday! The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the sporting and television event of the year. It is also clearly the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone seems to have some sort of interest in the game. The Super Bowl, like Christmas mass to absentee churchgoers, seems to bring even the most novice of bettors out of the woodwork. Don't think for a moment that oddsmakers don't realize this, as the wagering options are increased multi-fold for the big game. Square pools, ATS and Total wagers, Teasers, Propositions, oh my, it's like a bettor's buffet. Unfortunately, many go uneducated into the process, and wake up the next morning not only with a hangover, but without any money left to buy their morning coffee. After reading this article, everyone should be much wiser come Super Bowl XXXIX Sunday!
Remember the days of the 80's and early 90's when winning a Super Bowl wager was as easy as saying the words "give me the NFC team!" Well, the game has become a bit more unpredictable of late, and consequently, more thorough preparation should go in before laying the money down. Probably the biggest thing to realize about the Super Bowl is that the talent and concentration level are magnified in this game, and the team with the edge in each of these usually dominates. Spreads are thus set higher than they would be in your typical Sunday regular season game scenario. The same normally goes for totals. To illustrate these points, the total number of points scored in the 38 previous Super Bowls averages 46.1, significantly more than the average season game, and the victory margin has been 15.8 PPG. The winning team is averaging 31.0 PPG, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6.
Those are just some of the basics regarding the history of the Super Bowl. Let's take a more detailed look at the game, from a betting perspective. We'll document a bunch of key trends, and discuss some of the less popular Super Bowl Sunday wagering options. We've even ATTACHED A CHART detailing each of the 38 previous Super Bowl Games, including spreads, scores and ATS results, and key game stats.
General Performance Trends ATS and Money Line Trends
Favorites in the Super Bowl are 26-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-16-3, 54.3%.
Double digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
The SU winner is 31-4-3 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls, so if you're taking the dog, you may as well take the money line.
The NFC holds a 21-17 SU and 19-16-3 ATS edge all time, but is just 2-5-2 ATS in the last nine games.
The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games.
The team with the better record going in to the game is 26-9 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-lost marks)
Halftime Trends
The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark.
The team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half.
The first half favorite is 20-18 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls.
53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games.
Over/Under Trends
As noted earlier, there have been 46.1 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl. Analyzing since just '85, that total increases to 53.2 PPG! Furthermore, there hasn't been a Super Bowl game with less than 36 total points scored since 1975, when Pittsburgh beat Minnesota 16-6.
The average total posted for the 20 Super Bowl Games since '85 is 46.3, representing a 4.8 point increase over non-Super Bowl games played within that same time frame.
In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 48.6.
Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total.
The highest scoring quarter is the second quarter, 503 points (13.2 PPG). Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes.
The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless.
Teaser Trends
The underdog owns just a 22-15-1 ATS Six-Point Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls, a very low conversion percentage in terms of normal Teaser line success.
The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays.
Proposition Wager Analysis
There are hundreds of proposition wagers available to a bettor on Super Bowl Sunday, ranging from statistical matchups to winning point margin to the coin toss. The odds can be very enticing for many of these, but keep in mind that the longer the odds, the less chance that it will happen. Still, it's fun to try and predict these features of the game. Here are some thoughts on a few typical proposition options:
First player to score a TD: A well-known favorite to proposition bettors. The last nine players to earn this title include Branch, Alstott, Law (a defensive TD), Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won't find any of these names on either the Super Bowl MVP list, or among the league's all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the odds are worth it.
Team to score first and win/lose: In 27 of the 38 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game. This should mandate at least 2.45-1 odds if you were to choose the opposite.
Coin toss: The odds say take "Heads", or maybe "Tails". Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.
Statistical Performance Trends
Execution plays a pivotal role in any football game, and is even more critical in the Super Bowl. Teams that control the line of scrimmage, pass the ball efficiently, and limit their mistakes almost always come out on top. Those familiar with FoxSheets.com know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 31-7 SU & 28-7-3 ATS.
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS.
In the 38 previous Super Bowl games, the team that has more turnovers has won just twice SU and four times ATS. In fact, the last time it happened, in SB XIV, Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19.
Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories (RYds, PYA, Tos, TOP) are 32-1 SU & 29-3-1 ATS.
Teams that win all four categories are 21-0 SU & 20-0-1 ATS.
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS.
Super Bowl Handicapping: Key Trends and Statistics
The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the sporting and television event of the year. It is also clearly the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone seems to have some sort of interest in the game. The Super Bowl, like Christmas mass to absentee churchgoers, seems to bring even the most novice of bettors out of the woodwork. Don't think for a moment that oddsmakers don't realize this, as the wagering options are increased multi-fold for the big game. Square pools, ATS and Total wagers, Teasers, Propositions, oh my, it's like a bettor's buffet. Unfortunately, many go uneducated into the process, and wake up the next morning not only with a hangover, but without any money left to buy their morning coffee. After reading this article, everyone should be much wiser come Super Bowl XXXIX Sunday! The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the sporting and television event of the year. It is also clearly the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone seems to have some sort of interest in the game. The Super Bowl, like Christmas mass to absentee churchgoers, seems to bring even the most novice of bettors out of the woodwork. Don't think for a moment that oddsmakers don't realize this, as the wagering options are increased multi-fold for the big game. Square pools, ATS and Total wagers, Teasers, Propositions, oh my, it's like a bettor's buffet. Unfortunately, many go uneducated into the process, and wake up the next morning not only with a hangover, but without any money left to buy their morning coffee. After reading this article, everyone should be much wiser come Super Bowl XXXIX Sunday!
Remember the days of the 80's and early 90's when winning a Super Bowl wager was as easy as saying the words "give me the NFC team!" Well, the game has become a bit more unpredictable of late, and consequently, more thorough preparation should go in before laying the money down. Probably the biggest thing to realize about the Super Bowl is that the talent and concentration level are magnified in this game, and the team with the edge in each of these usually dominates. Spreads are thus set higher than they would be in your typical Sunday regular season game scenario. The same normally goes for totals. To illustrate these points, the total number of points scored in the 38 previous Super Bowls averages 46.1, significantly more than the average season game, and the victory margin has been 15.8 PPG. The winning team is averaging 31.0 PPG, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6.
Those are just some of the basics regarding the history of the Super Bowl. Let's take a more detailed look at the game, from a betting perspective. We'll document a bunch of key trends, and discuss some of the less popular Super Bowl Sunday wagering options. We've even ATTACHED A CHART detailing each of the 38 previous Super Bowl Games, including spreads, scores and ATS results, and key game stats.
General Performance Trends ATS and Money Line Trends
Favorites in the Super Bowl are 26-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-16-3, 54.3%.
Double digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
The SU winner is 31-4-3 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls, so if you're taking the dog, you may as well take the money line.
The NFC holds a 21-17 SU and 19-16-3 ATS edge all time, but is just 2-5-2 ATS in the last nine games.
The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games.
The team with the better record going in to the game is 26-9 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-lost marks)
Halftime Trends
The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark.
The team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half.
The first half favorite is 20-18 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls.
53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games.
Over/Under Trends
As noted earlier, there have been 46.1 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl. Analyzing since just '85, that total increases to 53.2 PPG! Furthermore, there hasn't been a Super Bowl game with less than 36 total points scored since 1975, when Pittsburgh beat Minnesota 16-6.
The average total posted for the 20 Super Bowl Games since '85 is 46.3, representing a 4.8 point increase over non-Super Bowl games played within that same time frame.
In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 48.6.
Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total.
The highest scoring quarter is the second quarter, 503 points (13.2 PPG). Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes.
The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless.
Teaser Trends
The underdog owns just a 22-15-1 ATS Six-Point Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls, a very low conversion percentage in terms of normal Teaser line success.
The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays.
Proposition Wager Analysis
There are hundreds of proposition wagers available to a bettor on Super Bowl Sunday, ranging from statistical matchups to winning point margin to the coin toss. The odds can be very enticing for many of these, but keep in mind that the longer the odds, the less chance that it will happen. Still, it's fun to try and predict these features of the game. Here are some thoughts on a few typical proposition options:
First player to score a TD: A well-known favorite to proposition bettors. The last nine players to earn this title include Branch, Alstott, Law (a defensive TD), Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won't find any of these names on either the Super Bowl MVP list, or among the league's all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the odds are worth it.
Team to score first and win/lose: In 27 of the 38 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game. This should mandate at least 2.45-1 odds if you were to choose the opposite.
Coin toss: The odds say take "Heads", or maybe "Tails". Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.
Statistical Performance Trends
Execution plays a pivotal role in any football game, and is even more critical in the Super Bowl. Teams that control the line of scrimmage, pass the ball efficiently, and limit their mistakes almost always come out on top. Those familiar with FoxSheets.com know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 31-7 SU & 28-7-3 ATS.
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS.
In the 38 previous Super Bowl games, the team that has more turnovers has won just twice SU and four times ATS. In fact, the last time it happened, in SB XIV, Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19.
Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories (RYds, PYA, Tos, TOP) are 32-1 SU & 29-3-1 ATS.
Teams that win all four categories are 21-0 SU & 20-0-1 ATS.
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS.