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By Rich Podolsky
Special to ESPN Insider
Showdown Saturday might be over, but there are some great games to look forward
to this week. Arizona State has a chance to upset Southern Cal and Virginia is
looking to do the same against Florida State.
Elsewhere, Texas looks like it towers over Missouri, while surprising UTEP and
Florida State are our other best bets this week.
Friday
UAB 6½ vs. TCU: TCU, a threat to mess up the BCS picture last year, can't get
out of its own way this year. The Horned Frogs almost lost at Army two weeks
ago. They also became the first of two teams this year to surrender 70 points to
Texas Tech. They can score, but they'll be hard pressed to stop a very talented
offensive club like UAB.
Darrell Hackney is a terrific quarterback running a very balanced offense. After
winning a tough game over Memphis and notching convincing victories at
Cincinnati and Mississippi State, the Tigers are 4-1.
The pick: UAB, and it shouldn't be that tough a task.
Saturday
Navy +6 vs. Notre Dame: In 2002, Paul Johnson's first year at Navy, the Middies
went 1-10 but managed to scare the heck out of the Irish. Their only win was a
58-12 thrashing of Army. Last year, the Middies won eight games, went to a bowl
game and almost beat Notre Dame.
It's been 40 years since Navy has won this game and you get the feeling the
Middies would rather beat Notre Dame than Army. With Aaron Polanco and Kyle
Eckel leading the offense, this could be Navy's year.
The pick: Navy, getting 6 or more. If not, pass.
Michigan State +9½ vs. Minnesota: The Golden Gophers head to East Lansing to
face a hungry Michigan State team. Minnesota had its Rose Bowl and BCS hopes
dashed in the final minutes last Saturday at Michigan.
The Spartans showed improvement in last week's 38-25 triumph over Illinois.
Quarterback Drew Stanton was 21-28 for 199 yards and three TDs. If John L.
Smith's team is to reach a bowl game, it needs to win this game. Michigan State
must tighten up its run defense against Minnesota's running game.
The pick: Michigan State.
Florida State -3 vs. Virginia: The Cavs are about to find out that beating
Florida State in Tallahassee is no easy task. Virginia is 5-0, but it has not
faced difficult competition -- Temple, Syracuse, Akron, N. Carolina and Clemson.
Florida State has already been tested, losing in the last minute at Miami. The
Seminoles also manhandled a talented UAB team. Chris Rix has practiced this week
and might see some time at quarterback on Saturday.
The pick: Florida State eased up. (best bet).
Alabama -7 vs. Southern Miss: With the loss of quarterback Dustin Almond,
Southern Miss will be hard pressed to keep pace with Alabama. The Crimson Tide
have manhandled the Golden Eagles on the ground the last few years, and Alabama
also holds a decided edge in overall speed. The Tide lost leading rusher Ray
Hudson last week, but he can be replaced more easily than Almond can.
The pick: Alabama again to overwhelm Southern Miss with its size and speed.
Arizona State +10 at USC: USC has been fortunate to escape with victories
against California and Stanford. Expect the Sun Devils to copy Cal's plan by
running Hakim Hill just enough to keep the Trojans honest and create
opportunities for Andrew Walter throw the ball.
Arizona State has been extremely impressive, beating Oregon and Oregon State
with relative ease. With a week to prepare, the Sun Devils might be able push
USC over the edge.
The pick: Arizona State.
Utah -21 vs. North Carolina: The Utes are finally garnering national attention.
If they run the table, a BCS berth is well within their realm. This is their
last chance to defeat a BCS conference team. The Tar Heels are fresh from
upsetting N.C. State, which makes them all the more appetizing for Urban Meyer's
bunch. North Carolina hasn't see anything like this kind of attack, and that
includes Florida State. Utah has won every game this year by 17 or more. This
should be no exception.
The pick: Utah.
Texas A&M +7 at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State's offense is led by Vernand
Morency, the nation's leading rusher. QB Donovan Woods had his most impressive
game last Saturday against Colorado, completing 8 of 11 for 193 yards and three
TDs. It was the kind of performance needed to prevent defenses from putting
eight in the box to stop the run.
Texas A&M was left for dead after an opening loss at Utah, but the Aggies have
won four straight in impressive fashion, including last week's 34-3 win at Iowa
State. Their run defense has been terrific, holding Darren Sproles to 60 yards
in 20 attempts. Texas A&M has held three of its last four opponents to a total
of nine points. The Cowboys might also be thinking about Oklahoma, who they play
in two weeks.
The pick: Texas A&M, in a game that will go down to the final minute.
Texas -13½ vs. Missouri: In the past four years, Texas has regrouped from a loss
to Oklahoma and won the following week. The Longhorns are clearly the superior
team. Holding Oklahoma to 12 points is a great defensive effort.
The Tigers might have QB Brad Smith, but they lack talent around him. They lost
at Troy State and struggled with a weak Colorado team at home. I can't see how
they could possibly stay with Texas.
The pick: Texas (bet bet).
UTEP-3 vs. Hawaii: The Miners are for real. After being victimized by a host of
bad calls at Fresno State last Saturday night, the UTEP defense was still able
to hold off Fresno's attack and win the game. After nearly upsetting Boise State
on September 18th, the Miners overwhelmed New Mexico State, 45-0. They feature a
balanced attack and a very aggressive defense.
Hawaii has reverted to its tradition of looking sloppy on the road, while
blasting mediocre opponents at home. This one's on the road.
The pick: UTEP (best bet).
UNLV-2 vs. New Mexico: Ever since John Robinson announced he was retiring after
this season, UNLV has played like a team possessed. It destroyed rival Nevada
and notched an impressive win at BYU last week. New Mexico comes to Las Vegas
with a 2-4 record, after losses to Utah and Air Force. These types of conference
games are never easy, but the Rebels should win another one for the old coach.
The pick: UNLV.
Passing Thoughts
Wisconsin is being treated like a second-class citizen, getting 7 at Purdue. But
the fear here is that Purdue can offset Wisconsin's size advantage by spreading
the offense. Last year Kyle Orton threw 56 times for 411 yards in a 26-23 win.
And Orton thinks rain (which is forcast) would help his team and hurt the
Badgers… Illinois threw a scare into Purdue and might do the same to Michigan…
Iowa's whole season is on the line Saturday at home against Ohio State, while
the Buckeyes are trying to prevent a third straight loss. Something's got to
give… Arkansas, which only lost by two points at Texas, is getting 13 at Auburn.
Auburn will know it is in a game before it's over… Cal lost its top receiver and
is licking its wounds after failing to upset USC, but still appears to have far
too much firepower for a very overrated UCLA squad… South Florida will probably
beat Army this week, but 16 points sure looks tempting… Arkansas State was
playing it's third road game in three weeks when it succumbed to MTSU last week.
As they return home to face Troy, it seems like the oddsmakers have forgotten
they nearly upset Memphis and Mississippi. Plus, Troy might be looking ahead to
next week's match at LSU.
Special to ESPN Insider
Showdown Saturday might be over, but there are some great games to look forward
to this week. Arizona State has a chance to upset Southern Cal and Virginia is
looking to do the same against Florida State.
Elsewhere, Texas looks like it towers over Missouri, while surprising UTEP and
Florida State are our other best bets this week.
Friday
UAB 6½ vs. TCU: TCU, a threat to mess up the BCS picture last year, can't get
out of its own way this year. The Horned Frogs almost lost at Army two weeks
ago. They also became the first of two teams this year to surrender 70 points to
Texas Tech. They can score, but they'll be hard pressed to stop a very talented
offensive club like UAB.
Darrell Hackney is a terrific quarterback running a very balanced offense. After
winning a tough game over Memphis and notching convincing victories at
Cincinnati and Mississippi State, the Tigers are 4-1.
The pick: UAB, and it shouldn't be that tough a task.
Saturday
Navy +6 vs. Notre Dame: In 2002, Paul Johnson's first year at Navy, the Middies
went 1-10 but managed to scare the heck out of the Irish. Their only win was a
58-12 thrashing of Army. Last year, the Middies won eight games, went to a bowl
game and almost beat Notre Dame.
It's been 40 years since Navy has won this game and you get the feeling the
Middies would rather beat Notre Dame than Army. With Aaron Polanco and Kyle
Eckel leading the offense, this could be Navy's year.
The pick: Navy, getting 6 or more. If not, pass.
Michigan State +9½ vs. Minnesota: The Golden Gophers head to East Lansing to
face a hungry Michigan State team. Minnesota had its Rose Bowl and BCS hopes
dashed in the final minutes last Saturday at Michigan.
The Spartans showed improvement in last week's 38-25 triumph over Illinois.
Quarterback Drew Stanton was 21-28 for 199 yards and three TDs. If John L.
Smith's team is to reach a bowl game, it needs to win this game. Michigan State
must tighten up its run defense against Minnesota's running game.
The pick: Michigan State.
Florida State -3 vs. Virginia: The Cavs are about to find out that beating
Florida State in Tallahassee is no easy task. Virginia is 5-0, but it has not
faced difficult competition -- Temple, Syracuse, Akron, N. Carolina and Clemson.
Florida State has already been tested, losing in the last minute at Miami. The
Seminoles also manhandled a talented UAB team. Chris Rix has practiced this week
and might see some time at quarterback on Saturday.
The pick: Florida State eased up. (best bet).
Alabama -7 vs. Southern Miss: With the loss of quarterback Dustin Almond,
Southern Miss will be hard pressed to keep pace with Alabama. The Crimson Tide
have manhandled the Golden Eagles on the ground the last few years, and Alabama
also holds a decided edge in overall speed. The Tide lost leading rusher Ray
Hudson last week, but he can be replaced more easily than Almond can.
The pick: Alabama again to overwhelm Southern Miss with its size and speed.
Arizona State +10 at USC: USC has been fortunate to escape with victories
against California and Stanford. Expect the Sun Devils to copy Cal's plan by
running Hakim Hill just enough to keep the Trojans honest and create
opportunities for Andrew Walter throw the ball.
Arizona State has been extremely impressive, beating Oregon and Oregon State
with relative ease. With a week to prepare, the Sun Devils might be able push
USC over the edge.
The pick: Arizona State.
Utah -21 vs. North Carolina: The Utes are finally garnering national attention.
If they run the table, a BCS berth is well within their realm. This is their
last chance to defeat a BCS conference team. The Tar Heels are fresh from
upsetting N.C. State, which makes them all the more appetizing for Urban Meyer's
bunch. North Carolina hasn't see anything like this kind of attack, and that
includes Florida State. Utah has won every game this year by 17 or more. This
should be no exception.
The pick: Utah.
Texas A&M +7 at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State's offense is led by Vernand
Morency, the nation's leading rusher. QB Donovan Woods had his most impressive
game last Saturday against Colorado, completing 8 of 11 for 193 yards and three
TDs. It was the kind of performance needed to prevent defenses from putting
eight in the box to stop the run.
Texas A&M was left for dead after an opening loss at Utah, but the Aggies have
won four straight in impressive fashion, including last week's 34-3 win at Iowa
State. Their run defense has been terrific, holding Darren Sproles to 60 yards
in 20 attempts. Texas A&M has held three of its last four opponents to a total
of nine points. The Cowboys might also be thinking about Oklahoma, who they play
in two weeks.
The pick: Texas A&M, in a game that will go down to the final minute.
Texas -13½ vs. Missouri: In the past four years, Texas has regrouped from a loss
to Oklahoma and won the following week. The Longhorns are clearly the superior
team. Holding Oklahoma to 12 points is a great defensive effort.
The Tigers might have QB Brad Smith, but they lack talent around him. They lost
at Troy State and struggled with a weak Colorado team at home. I can't see how
they could possibly stay with Texas.
The pick: Texas (bet bet).
UTEP-3 vs. Hawaii: The Miners are for real. After being victimized by a host of
bad calls at Fresno State last Saturday night, the UTEP defense was still able
to hold off Fresno's attack and win the game. After nearly upsetting Boise State
on September 18th, the Miners overwhelmed New Mexico State, 45-0. They feature a
balanced attack and a very aggressive defense.
Hawaii has reverted to its tradition of looking sloppy on the road, while
blasting mediocre opponents at home. This one's on the road.
The pick: UTEP (best bet).
UNLV-2 vs. New Mexico: Ever since John Robinson announced he was retiring after
this season, UNLV has played like a team possessed. It destroyed rival Nevada
and notched an impressive win at BYU last week. New Mexico comes to Las Vegas
with a 2-4 record, after losses to Utah and Air Force. These types of conference
games are never easy, but the Rebels should win another one for the old coach.
The pick: UNLV.
Passing Thoughts
Wisconsin is being treated like a second-class citizen, getting 7 at Purdue. But
the fear here is that Purdue can offset Wisconsin's size advantage by spreading
the offense. Last year Kyle Orton threw 56 times for 411 yards in a 26-23 win.
And Orton thinks rain (which is forcast) would help his team and hurt the
Badgers… Illinois threw a scare into Purdue and might do the same to Michigan…
Iowa's whole season is on the line Saturday at home against Ohio State, while
the Buckeyes are trying to prevent a third straight loss. Something's got to
give… Arkansas, which only lost by two points at Texas, is getting 13 at Auburn.
Auburn will know it is in a game before it's over… Cal lost its top receiver and
is licking its wounds after failing to upset USC, but still appears to have far
too much firepower for a very overrated UCLA squad… South Florida will probably
beat Army this week, but 16 points sure looks tempting… Arkansas State was
playing it's third road game in three weeks when it succumbed to MTSU last week.
As they return home to face Troy, it seems like the oddsmakers have forgotten
they nearly upset Memphis and Mississippi. Plus, Troy might be looking ahead to
next week's match at LSU.