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Overview
The Bears lost a heartbreaker last week, but the performances of their trio of young skill players -- QB Rex Grossman, RB Thomas Jones and WR David Terrell -- gives them hope against a Green Bay defense that is still an unknown entity versus the run and desperately misses holdout DC Mike McKenzie in coverage.
If the Packers are to avoid an upset in their 2004 Lambeau Field opener, they must take advantage of their edge in experience. QB Brett Favre has the weapons to disassemble a Bears secondary that is dangerously thin because of the loss of Jerry Azumah, but his offensive line must give him time against an improved Bears pass rush with newcomers Adewale Ogunleye (DE) and Tommie Harris (DT) leading the charge from the left side of their defense.
When the Bears have the ball
Rushing:
The Bears' offensive line has the potential to be strong as a run-blocking unit. ROT John Tait isn't a great mauler, but he is athletic and tactical. The interior of OC Olin Kreutz and OGs Ruben Brown and Mike Gandy are big and strong, as is the 355-pound LOT Qasim Mitchell.
The Bears were able to establish a solid running game against one of the best interior run defenses in the NFL last week and they should be even more successful this week against a Packers run defense that is without NT Grady Jackson, who injured his left knee on Monday night. Kruetz should be able to handle replacement James Lee on his own, as is the case with Brown versus Hunt and Tait and Mitchell against LDE Aaron Kampman and RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, respectively.
Look for the Bears to use a lot of two-back sets with FB Bryan Johnson in the game order to consistently get a body on MLB Nick Barnett. RB Thomas Jones doesn't always hit the right holes and he isn't the most overpowering back, but he is big, strong and quick enough to wear the Packers down in a 25-plus performance. The key, however, will be to protect the football and sustain drives long enough in order to get Jones his 25 carries, which in turn will help to keep Favre and company off the field.
Passing: The Bears will use a lot of two-receiver, two-back, one-tight end sets in this game because as much as they would like to spread the Packers out to test their thin secondary in coverage, they simply don't have the receivers to do so. Pass protection was a problem last week and it will continue to be a problem throughout the 2004 season.
Tait is one of the most athletic right tackles in the NFL, but the interior is much better at run blocking than it is in pass protection and LOT Mitchell is still extremely inexperienced and unpolished, which explains why the three sacks that the Bears allowed last week came up the middle and from the left side. As a result, look for the Bears to use a lot of play-action and many max-protection schemes with Johnson and/or TE Desmond Clark staying in to help out against Gbaja-Biamila and the blitz.
If Grossman has more time, he should have some success throwing to WR David Terrell against RDC Al Harris. Harris is a physical cornerback who uses his size and strength in press coverage to make up for what he lacks in hip fluidity and speed, but Terrell has the size to break the press and, because of the help that Michael Hawthorne will need on the opposite side, Terrell will have mostly man-to-man matchups to work against.
Also look for Jones to continue to be a big factor in the passing game, as offensive coordinator Terry Shea tries to implement the system that he came from in Kansas City with RB Priest Holmes. Jones had six receptions last week but he'll have his work cut out for him this week against MLB Barnett.
When the Packers have the ball
Rushing: The Lions tried to establish a running attack against the Bears last week but couldn't. The Bears have completely switched philosophies and personnel up front, using a one-gap scheme that emphasizes penetration over protection. They lack great size but have very good quickness and athleticism with DEs Ogunleye and Alex Brown and DTs Harris and Alfonso Boone.
The Bears also have a lot of depth with guys like Michael Haynes and Tank Johnson rotating in and out to keep everyone fresh. The scheme isn't ideal for MLB Brian Urlacher, but if the front four continues to get the same type of penetration that it got last week, Urlacher will continue to be a dominant presence versus the run because of his ability to fill through a hole so quickly.
However, while the Bears continue to improve up front, they won't be nearly the challenge that the Packers' offensive line faced on Monday night against the league's most explosive defensive front four (Carolina). The Packers had an occasional meltdown, but overall they proved up to the task, which leads us to believe that they'll be more than capable of creating running room for RB Ahman Green.
Urlacher has always had his most problems when teams run at him and get a body on him. The Packers will try to do so by spreading the field out with three-receiver sets and counting on OC Mike Flanagan to get to the second level against Urlacher. However, if he's unable to do so, we could see a lot more two-back sets with William Henderson and even Najeh Davenport in the game.
Passing: This is the facet of the game that the Bears are going to struggle to most in. While they have vastly improved their front-four pass rush, the Packers' offensive line is too good to consistently get a rush against with just four coming. The problem, however, is that the Bears can't afford to allocate linebackers and/or safeties to the blitz on a consistent basis because of their lack of great range and depth in the secondary.
Look for the Packers to use a majority of three-receiver sets with Donald Driver, Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker in the game at the same time to create mismatches against the Bears' secondary.
The Bears cannot afford to match up FS Mike Brown against the inside receiver, so they'll be forced to play a lot more nickel coverage as their base personnel grouping than they would like. With nickel DC Todd McMillon in the game, Favre should have some favorable matchups to work with, as McMillon lacks great size and speed, R.W. McQuarters has lost a step, and Charles Tillman is still green.
Furthermore, with the outside cornerbacks needing deep help on a consistent basis and with one linebacker substituted out in the nickel package, there should be a lot more room for Green and TE Bubba Franks to operate in the middle of the field as short-to-intermediate security blankets for Favre. Whichever one doesn't draw coverage from Urlacher will likely be Favre's check-down option on that play.
Scouts' Edge
The Bears have some exciting young talent on both sides of the ball and seem to be much improved overall from a season ago. However, they're still no match for a much more experienced and talented Packers bunch -- especially at Lambeau Field.
Offensively, the Packers have too much depth at receiver for the injury-riddled Bears secondary to keep up with, which will lead to some big plays for Favre's receivers in the passing game and some favorable fronts for Green to run against.
Defensively, the Packers might have more trouble stopping the run than anticipated and, as a result, the Bears could control the clock more than the Packers would like. However, the Packers' biggest weakness on defense is at cornerback and the Bears simply lack the weapons at wide receiver to exploit that weakness. The Bears will slow things down on offense and make sledding tough for Green and the Packers' run game, but not nearly enough to pull off the upset.
The Bears lost a heartbreaker last week, but the performances of their trio of young skill players -- QB Rex Grossman, RB Thomas Jones and WR David Terrell -- gives them hope against a Green Bay defense that is still an unknown entity versus the run and desperately misses holdout DC Mike McKenzie in coverage.
If the Packers are to avoid an upset in their 2004 Lambeau Field opener, they must take advantage of their edge in experience. QB Brett Favre has the weapons to disassemble a Bears secondary that is dangerously thin because of the loss of Jerry Azumah, but his offensive line must give him time against an improved Bears pass rush with newcomers Adewale Ogunleye (DE) and Tommie Harris (DT) leading the charge from the left side of their defense.
When the Bears have the ball
Rushing:
The Bears' offensive line has the potential to be strong as a run-blocking unit. ROT John Tait isn't a great mauler, but he is athletic and tactical. The interior of OC Olin Kreutz and OGs Ruben Brown and Mike Gandy are big and strong, as is the 355-pound LOT Qasim Mitchell.
The Bears were able to establish a solid running game against one of the best interior run defenses in the NFL last week and they should be even more successful this week against a Packers run defense that is without NT Grady Jackson, who injured his left knee on Monday night. Kruetz should be able to handle replacement James Lee on his own, as is the case with Brown versus Hunt and Tait and Mitchell against LDE Aaron Kampman and RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, respectively.
Look for the Bears to use a lot of two-back sets with FB Bryan Johnson in the game order to consistently get a body on MLB Nick Barnett. RB Thomas Jones doesn't always hit the right holes and he isn't the most overpowering back, but he is big, strong and quick enough to wear the Packers down in a 25-plus performance. The key, however, will be to protect the football and sustain drives long enough in order to get Jones his 25 carries, which in turn will help to keep Favre and company off the field.
Passing: The Bears will use a lot of two-receiver, two-back, one-tight end sets in this game because as much as they would like to spread the Packers out to test their thin secondary in coverage, they simply don't have the receivers to do so. Pass protection was a problem last week and it will continue to be a problem throughout the 2004 season.
Tait is one of the most athletic right tackles in the NFL, but the interior is much better at run blocking than it is in pass protection and LOT Mitchell is still extremely inexperienced and unpolished, which explains why the three sacks that the Bears allowed last week came up the middle and from the left side. As a result, look for the Bears to use a lot of play-action and many max-protection schemes with Johnson and/or TE Desmond Clark staying in to help out against Gbaja-Biamila and the blitz.
If Grossman has more time, he should have some success throwing to WR David Terrell against RDC Al Harris. Harris is a physical cornerback who uses his size and strength in press coverage to make up for what he lacks in hip fluidity and speed, but Terrell has the size to break the press and, because of the help that Michael Hawthorne will need on the opposite side, Terrell will have mostly man-to-man matchups to work against.
Also look for Jones to continue to be a big factor in the passing game, as offensive coordinator Terry Shea tries to implement the system that he came from in Kansas City with RB Priest Holmes. Jones had six receptions last week but he'll have his work cut out for him this week against MLB Barnett.
When the Packers have the ball
Rushing: The Lions tried to establish a running attack against the Bears last week but couldn't. The Bears have completely switched philosophies and personnel up front, using a one-gap scheme that emphasizes penetration over protection. They lack great size but have very good quickness and athleticism with DEs Ogunleye and Alex Brown and DTs Harris and Alfonso Boone.
The Bears also have a lot of depth with guys like Michael Haynes and Tank Johnson rotating in and out to keep everyone fresh. The scheme isn't ideal for MLB Brian Urlacher, but if the front four continues to get the same type of penetration that it got last week, Urlacher will continue to be a dominant presence versus the run because of his ability to fill through a hole so quickly.
However, while the Bears continue to improve up front, they won't be nearly the challenge that the Packers' offensive line faced on Monday night against the league's most explosive defensive front four (Carolina). The Packers had an occasional meltdown, but overall they proved up to the task, which leads us to believe that they'll be more than capable of creating running room for RB Ahman Green.
Urlacher has always had his most problems when teams run at him and get a body on him. The Packers will try to do so by spreading the field out with three-receiver sets and counting on OC Mike Flanagan to get to the second level against Urlacher. However, if he's unable to do so, we could see a lot more two-back sets with William Henderson and even Najeh Davenport in the game.
Passing: This is the facet of the game that the Bears are going to struggle to most in. While they have vastly improved their front-four pass rush, the Packers' offensive line is too good to consistently get a rush against with just four coming. The problem, however, is that the Bears can't afford to allocate linebackers and/or safeties to the blitz on a consistent basis because of their lack of great range and depth in the secondary.
Look for the Packers to use a majority of three-receiver sets with Donald Driver, Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker in the game at the same time to create mismatches against the Bears' secondary.
The Bears cannot afford to match up FS Mike Brown against the inside receiver, so they'll be forced to play a lot more nickel coverage as their base personnel grouping than they would like. With nickel DC Todd McMillon in the game, Favre should have some favorable matchups to work with, as McMillon lacks great size and speed, R.W. McQuarters has lost a step, and Charles Tillman is still green.
Furthermore, with the outside cornerbacks needing deep help on a consistent basis and with one linebacker substituted out in the nickel package, there should be a lot more room for Green and TE Bubba Franks to operate in the middle of the field as short-to-intermediate security blankets for Favre. Whichever one doesn't draw coverage from Urlacher will likely be Favre's check-down option on that play.
Scouts' Edge
The Bears have some exciting young talent on both sides of the ball and seem to be much improved overall from a season ago. However, they're still no match for a much more experienced and talented Packers bunch -- especially at Lambeau Field.
Offensively, the Packers have too much depth at receiver for the injury-riddled Bears secondary to keep up with, which will lead to some big plays for Favre's receivers in the passing game and some favorable fronts for Green to run against.
Defensively, the Packers might have more trouble stopping the run than anticipated and, as a result, the Bears could control the clock more than the Packers would like. However, the Packers' biggest weakness on defense is at cornerback and the Bears simply lack the weapons at wide receiver to exploit that weakness. The Bears will slow things down on offense and make sledding tough for Green and the Packers' run game, but not nearly enough to pull off the upset.