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Week 1 of 2004 NFL season
Oakland @ Pittsburgh- Dogs covered nine of last thirteen in what once was fierce rivalry, with Raiders winning four of last five, but they got whacked here 27-7 last year, as 5.5-point dog late in year. Steelers covered just two of last eleven home openers, and started out 0-1 in three of last four years, with all three losses by 16+ points; they're 2-6 as a favorite in their home opener. Raiders have new offense under Norvelous Norv Turner; if Gannon struggles, how soon will they go to Kerry Collins? Was just in Steel City last week; trust me, people are fired up for this game.
Tampa Bay @ Washington- Home team won five of last six series games, with six of last seven series totals 37 or less, and three of last four decided by four or less points. Bucs crushed Skins 35-13 last year, but now Gibbs is back in DC to restore order; one note of caution- first time he coached Skins, back in '81, he started first season 0-5, then rallied for 8-8 finish, then won Super Bowl the next year. Redskins are 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight home openers (4-4 SU). Bucs won last five road openers, outscoring foes by whopping 52-6 in last three road openers.
Baltimore @ Cleveland- Fifth year in row Browns opened at home, and they've yet to win an opener, scoring seven or less points in three of the four, and losing fourth 40-39 on a late unsportsmanlike penalty that took away a certain win. Ogden's sprained knee puts Raven offense and young QB Boller in tough spot; they ran ball down Cleveland's throat twice last year, gaining 619 yards just on ground, winning two games by combined score of 68-13, but vet QB Garcia gives Browns instant credibility under center, something they've lacked.
Jacksonville @ Buffalo- Bills won last three series games. Home team lost four of last five in this series, with four of the five decided by six or less points. Bills averaged 12.1 yards per pass vs Jags last year, converting on 8 of 14 third down plays. Last two years, Jax lost its opener by 1 and 3 points; they've covered last five openers, and scored 22+ points in six of last seven road openers. Bills real thin at QB if Bledsoe goes down, as backups Brown, Losman both out for month or more with injuries.
Cincinnati @ Jets- Bengals improved to 8-8 last year with vet QB Kitna, but now second-year QB Palmer gets first NFL start in hostile Swamp, where Jets have an amazingly bad 0-12 mark vs spread in last dozen home openers (2-10 SU). Bengals lost last five visits to this site, with last three by combined total of nine points; dogs covered five of their last six games at the Jets, who covered just four of last twelve season openers Bengals have been bad for so long that they have all these negative trends that are no longer relevant, but giving new QB his first start on road seems like tough duty.
Detroit @ Chicago- Lions 0-24 on road since Millen has been GM; with new QB under center (Grossman), new coach and Urlacher hurting, Chicago is ripe to be taken here, but Lions lost last three visits here, and scored just two TDs in last 23 possessions vs Chicago a year ago. Bears had ton of penalties in preseason, and have QB with less than a year of NFL experience. Dogs covered seven of last ten series games, four of five at this site. Bears 2-4 vs spread in last six tries as favorite in their home opener.
Arizona @ Rams- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Arizona road openers, with Cardinals giving up 27.4 ppg in last nine; they started out 0-1 in 11 of last 12 years, covering just three of last ten season openers, with six of last seven going over. Rams won last four series games, with last three totals 50+; dogs are 9-4 vs spread in last 13 series games. Over is 6-1 in last seven Ram openers, with St Louis 1-4-1 vs spread in last six openers. Male Sheep averaging 31.6 ppg in last five home openers; their OL is little shaky, but it should be adequate to protect prolific passer Bulger.
Seattle @ New Orleans- Saints lost 27-10 at Seattle in last year's opener, with Hawks running ball for 151 yards; Seahawks touted as Super contender, but last time they had winning road record was in '84, also last time they won a playoff game. Saints won five of last six home openers, with average total in last three, 31.3; five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Seattle split last six openers after losing eight of previous nine. Dogs covered three of last four series games.
San Diego @ Houston- Who starts at QB for Bolts, Brees or Rivers? Guess here is that Texas native Brees gets nod; star Charger RB Tomlinson is also a native Texan and best player on field, but Texans are improved in their third year- they started out 1-0 in each of first two seasons. Chargers covered five of last six road openers, winning four SU; eight of their last twelve road openers went over total. Chargers won only meeting 24-3 in Texans' first-ever road game. You get feeling Houston's program might be further along, at this point.
NYGiants @ Philadelphia- Warner gets nod at QB in Coughlin's first game as Giant coach; biggest Big Blue issue this summer seemed to be their slowish LBs, as many big plays were yielded, often on simple crossing routes. Eagles lost eight of last ten season openers and five of last six home openers; six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Giants lost last three at Philly by 3,14,18 points, with fave covering six of last nine in series, at this site. Frustration of three straight NFC title game losses could bubble over here for Iggles, as Giant OL might be shaky vs fierce Eagle blitzes.
Dallas @ Minnesota- Favorite covered seven of last eight series games, with Vikings winning last three, all by 10+ points; ten of last 11 series totals were 42+. Dallas lost its last four road openers by 24-11 average; six of their last seven road openers went over total. Vikings covered just one of last five home openers; eight of their last eleven home openers stayed under total. 40+-year old Testaverde makes start here for Pokes, who are 4-1 vs spread in last five openers as an underdog.
Atlanta @ San Francisco- 49ers were winless in summer for first time since '74, but Atlanta lost last ten visits to this site, although last year's 49er defensive coordinator, young Mora, is now Falcon head man. Niners won last three series games, with last two coming in OT; game was bet up from opening line of 2, so public is on Vick and Atlanta squad that covered its last six season openers, but is 2-14 SU in its first road game the last sixteen years. 49ers failed to cover their last six home openers, but started out 1-0 in each of last five years.
Kansas City @ Denver- Too big a game for Week 1, but there it is; Chiefs lost last three visits to this site, with last five series totals 47+. Home team won six of last seven series games, with faves covering four of last five. Denver scored 30 ppg in last four openers, while Chiefs scored 40+ points in each of their three road openers under Vermeil; they're averaging 30.3 in Week 1 games last three years. Broncos put up 76 points in last two home games vs KC, so its up to Cunningham's schemes to shut down Plummer, since the Chiefs basically have same defensive players as last year.
Green Bay @ Carolina-Brett Favre getting points on a Monday from a team that had nine of its eleven wins last year by six or less points, and is now hurting on OL? I know, Panthers won the NFC, but they've lost five of seven vs Pack and covered just three of their nine season openers. Under is 11-3 last fourteen Packer road openers and 7-1 in last eight Carolina home openers. Pack is 3-1 in four visits to this site. This is just second time in last sixteen years that Green Bay opens season on road; they won 34-3 at Tampa eight years ago, as 7-point favorite.
Oakland @ Pittsburgh- Dogs covered nine of last thirteen in what once was fierce rivalry, with Raiders winning four of last five, but they got whacked here 27-7 last year, as 5.5-point dog late in year. Steelers covered just two of last eleven home openers, and started out 0-1 in three of last four years, with all three losses by 16+ points; they're 2-6 as a favorite in their home opener. Raiders have new offense under Norvelous Norv Turner; if Gannon struggles, how soon will they go to Kerry Collins? Was just in Steel City last week; trust me, people are fired up for this game.
Tampa Bay @ Washington- Home team won five of last six series games, with six of last seven series totals 37 or less, and three of last four decided by four or less points. Bucs crushed Skins 35-13 last year, but now Gibbs is back in DC to restore order; one note of caution- first time he coached Skins, back in '81, he started first season 0-5, then rallied for 8-8 finish, then won Super Bowl the next year. Redskins are 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight home openers (4-4 SU). Bucs won last five road openers, outscoring foes by whopping 52-6 in last three road openers.
Baltimore @ Cleveland- Fifth year in row Browns opened at home, and they've yet to win an opener, scoring seven or less points in three of the four, and losing fourth 40-39 on a late unsportsmanlike penalty that took away a certain win. Ogden's sprained knee puts Raven offense and young QB Boller in tough spot; they ran ball down Cleveland's throat twice last year, gaining 619 yards just on ground, winning two games by combined score of 68-13, but vet QB Garcia gives Browns instant credibility under center, something they've lacked.
Jacksonville @ Buffalo- Bills won last three series games. Home team lost four of last five in this series, with four of the five decided by six or less points. Bills averaged 12.1 yards per pass vs Jags last year, converting on 8 of 14 third down plays. Last two years, Jax lost its opener by 1 and 3 points; they've covered last five openers, and scored 22+ points in six of last seven road openers. Bills real thin at QB if Bledsoe goes down, as backups Brown, Losman both out for month or more with injuries.
Cincinnati @ Jets- Bengals improved to 8-8 last year with vet QB Kitna, but now second-year QB Palmer gets first NFL start in hostile Swamp, where Jets have an amazingly bad 0-12 mark vs spread in last dozen home openers (2-10 SU). Bengals lost last five visits to this site, with last three by combined total of nine points; dogs covered five of their last six games at the Jets, who covered just four of last twelve season openers Bengals have been bad for so long that they have all these negative trends that are no longer relevant, but giving new QB his first start on road seems like tough duty.
Detroit @ Chicago- Lions 0-24 on road since Millen has been GM; with new QB under center (Grossman), new coach and Urlacher hurting, Chicago is ripe to be taken here, but Lions lost last three visits here, and scored just two TDs in last 23 possessions vs Chicago a year ago. Bears had ton of penalties in preseason, and have QB with less than a year of NFL experience. Dogs covered seven of last ten series games, four of five at this site. Bears 2-4 vs spread in last six tries as favorite in their home opener.
Arizona @ Rams- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Arizona road openers, with Cardinals giving up 27.4 ppg in last nine; they started out 0-1 in 11 of last 12 years, covering just three of last ten season openers, with six of last seven going over. Rams won last four series games, with last three totals 50+; dogs are 9-4 vs spread in last 13 series games. Over is 6-1 in last seven Ram openers, with St Louis 1-4-1 vs spread in last six openers. Male Sheep averaging 31.6 ppg in last five home openers; their OL is little shaky, but it should be adequate to protect prolific passer Bulger.
Seattle @ New Orleans- Saints lost 27-10 at Seattle in last year's opener, with Hawks running ball for 151 yards; Seahawks touted as Super contender, but last time they had winning road record was in '84, also last time they won a playoff game. Saints won five of last six home openers, with average total in last three, 31.3; five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Seattle split last six openers after losing eight of previous nine. Dogs covered three of last four series games.
San Diego @ Houston- Who starts at QB for Bolts, Brees or Rivers? Guess here is that Texas native Brees gets nod; star Charger RB Tomlinson is also a native Texan and best player on field, but Texans are improved in their third year- they started out 1-0 in each of first two seasons. Chargers covered five of last six road openers, winning four SU; eight of their last twelve road openers went over total. Chargers won only meeting 24-3 in Texans' first-ever road game. You get feeling Houston's program might be further along, at this point.
NYGiants @ Philadelphia- Warner gets nod at QB in Coughlin's first game as Giant coach; biggest Big Blue issue this summer seemed to be their slowish LBs, as many big plays were yielded, often on simple crossing routes. Eagles lost eight of last ten season openers and five of last six home openers; six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Giants lost last three at Philly by 3,14,18 points, with fave covering six of last nine in series, at this site. Frustration of three straight NFC title game losses could bubble over here for Iggles, as Giant OL might be shaky vs fierce Eagle blitzes.
Dallas @ Minnesota- Favorite covered seven of last eight series games, with Vikings winning last three, all by 10+ points; ten of last 11 series totals were 42+. Dallas lost its last four road openers by 24-11 average; six of their last seven road openers went over total. Vikings covered just one of last five home openers; eight of their last eleven home openers stayed under total. 40+-year old Testaverde makes start here for Pokes, who are 4-1 vs spread in last five openers as an underdog.
Atlanta @ San Francisco- 49ers were winless in summer for first time since '74, but Atlanta lost last ten visits to this site, although last year's 49er defensive coordinator, young Mora, is now Falcon head man. Niners won last three series games, with last two coming in OT; game was bet up from opening line of 2, so public is on Vick and Atlanta squad that covered its last six season openers, but is 2-14 SU in its first road game the last sixteen years. 49ers failed to cover their last six home openers, but started out 1-0 in each of last five years.
Kansas City @ Denver- Too big a game for Week 1, but there it is; Chiefs lost last three visits to this site, with last five series totals 47+. Home team won six of last seven series games, with faves covering four of last five. Denver scored 30 ppg in last four openers, while Chiefs scored 40+ points in each of their three road openers under Vermeil; they're averaging 30.3 in Week 1 games last three years. Broncos put up 76 points in last two home games vs KC, so its up to Cunningham's schemes to shut down Plummer, since the Chiefs basically have same defensive players as last year.
Green Bay @ Carolina-Brett Favre getting points on a Monday from a team that had nine of its eleven wins last year by six or less points, and is now hurting on OL? I know, Panthers won the NFC, but they've lost five of seven vs Pack and covered just three of their nine season openers. Under is 11-3 last fourteen Packer road openers and 7-1 in last eight Carolina home openers. Pack is 3-1 in four visits to this site. This is just second time in last sixteen years that Green Bay opens season on road; they won 34-3 at Tampa eight years ago, as 7-point favorite.