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Seminoles have edge in experience
By Steve Muench
Scouts, Inc.
The two deaths in Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden's family, along with the continued concern for the health and safety of those involved in Hurricane Frances, has cast a dark cloud over Friday night's highly anticipated meeting between the Hurricanes and Seminoles.
While these tragic events certainly put things in perspective, when Florida State and Miami take the field for 60 minutes on Friday night, the bitter rivalry will pick up right where it left off in early January.
Revenge, resiliency and two quarterbacks trying to prove they have what it takes to win the big game are just a few reasons this game should be interesting. Miami handed Florida State its first and last loss of the 2003 season. Florida State has now dropped five consecutive games to the Hurricanes and its seniors want to go out with at least one victory in this bitter rivalry.
Miami RB Frank Gore is trying to make a comeback after missing the entire 2002 season and most of the 2003 season with knee injuries. When healthy, he is very dangerous. Gore will want to prove that he has fully recovered.
Quarterbacks Chris Rix and Brock Berlin have failed to live up to expectations. Both are looking to use Monday night's game as a jumping off point for what they hope will be vindicating senior seasons.
This is also Miami's first year in the ACC. With this game significantly impacting the race for the conference championship and possibly the national championship, neither team can afford to get off to a slow start.
When Florida State has the ball
FSU run offense vs. Miami run defense
Florida State has arguably the best offensive line in the nation, which doesn't bode well for a Miami defense that lost DT Vince Wilfork (New England) and LBs D.J. Williams and Jonathan Vilma (N.Y. Jets). While Santonio Thomas played well as Wilfork's backup last year, how he handles the starting role remains to be seen. Backup Kareem Brown, who is expected to see plenty of playing time, has good quickness off the line but is undersized.
The Seminoles should have some success pounding the ball between the tackles with RB Leon Washington, who excels at picking up yards after contact. Washington will also benefit from sharing carries with Lorenzo Booker, because it will keep him fresh as Miami's front seven starts to wear down. This advantage should show up more in the second half.
Booker has great speed and Florida State will look to get him on the perimeter. He should enjoy success running behind OT Alex Barron – a powerful run blocker who is capable of driving Miami's undersized defensive ends off the ball. The key to the running game could be Rix. If Rix doesn't play well, Miami will consistently crowd the line of scrimmage with eight-man fronts.
Advantage: Florida State
FSU pass offense vs. Miami pass defense
Bowden wants to get his backs and tight ends more involved in the passing game. The Seminoles should waste little time working toward that goal. With Miami losing all three starting linebackers from a year ago, Florida State can help the inconsistent Rix get into a rhythm by throwing to the backs and tight ends underneath. Washington and Booker have the ability to turn the short pass into a long gain, so Miami's linebackers must make sure to wrap them up quickly.
After primarily playing a base cover-2 defense in 2002, Miami defensive coordinator Randy Shannon was far more aggressive last year. With the speed and talent at corner to hold up in man coverage again this year, Shannon can keep Rix off-balance by mixing his schemes up. Don't be misled by Rix's four years of starting experience. He is a poor decision-maker who has problems reading defenses and will throw into coverage. The key will be the play of the two new starters at safety. The Seminoles run a lot of play action so FS Brandon Merriweather and SS Greg Threat must be disciplined without losing their aggressiveness against the run. If they stay in position, the newcomers should have some opportunities to make big plays.
One of the biggest weapons in this game is Florida State WR Craphonso Thorpe. Thorpe caught 11 touchdowns and averaged 19.5 yards a catch last year. However, don't expect him to post great numbers against the Hurricanes, as he is matched up one-on-one against one of the finest cover corners in the nation, Antrel Rolle. Rolle, who has terrific size, strength and speed for the position, played a critical part in holding Larry Fitzgerald to just three catches for 26 yards last year. He has good size and is fast enough to run with Thorpe downfield, so Rix shouldn't test him often. With Rolle blanketing Thorpe, the rest of the Seminoles' receiving corps, including Chauncey Stovall and Lorne Sam, will need to come of age quickly.
Advantage: Miami
When Miami has the ball
Miami run offense vs. Florida State run defense
The biggest wildcard in this game is Gore. Gore has sustained two serious knee injuries and there is reason to believe he has lost the explosiveness he showed earlier in his career. Florida State's linebacking corps is talented and deep despite losing Michael Boulware (Seahawks) to the draft. SLB Ernie Sims and WLB A.J. Nicholson are both capable of preventing a less-than 100-percent Gore from turning the corner.
Miami may have the second best offensive line in the nation. The unit is quick and athletic. Berlin's inconsistency last year and the lack of a playmaking receiver will ensure that Gore will face plenty of eight-man fronts. SS Jerome Carter plays with a mean streak and does a good job of filling against the run. Without the receiving threat at tight end that Miami had in Kellen Winslow last year, Carter won't be as worried about play action.
Advantage: Florida State
Miami pass offense vs. Florida State pass defense
LOT Eric Winston's ability to handle RDE Eric Moore will be critical to Miami's success in the passing game. If the Hurricanes don't have to help out Winston, who is an outstanding pass blocker, they can then send their back or tight end out as receivers.
The Miami backs need to play a big role in this game. While WR Ryan Moore is an emerging superstar, Florida State CB Bryant McFadden has the size and speed to limit his production in this game. WR Roscoe Parish, who will start opposite Moore, is an undersized possession receiver coming off a second knee surgery. Seminoles' defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews is expected to run a lot of press coverage this year. Until Parrish proves he can beat them over the top, the Florida State corners will be extremely aggressive and will try to muscle Parrish out of his routes.
The second reason Winston must have a big game is to help keep Berlin comfortable. Berlin doesn't always handle pressure well and is a streaky quarterback. If Moore has success getting to him early, Berlin may start to rush his throws and make some mistakes.
Advantage: Florida State
Special teams
Florida State PK Xavier Beitia missed the potential game-winning field goal wide right in the Orange Bowl last year. With this game at the Orange Bowl and Beitia seeing his first action this year, the potential for a missed field goal attempt is there.
Miami has the weapons to make a big play in the return game. Parrish, Rolle and Devin Hester are all threats to go the distance every time they touch the ball. Although PK Jon Peattie can be somewhat inconsistent, he has a powerful leg and connected on five of his seven field-goal attempts from beyond 40 yards last year. The Hurricane's special teams have played a big role in their five-game win streak over the Seminoles and this unit will have to play exceptionally well for Miami to make it six straight wins.
Advantage: Miami
Bottom line
Expect Florida State to end Miami's streak and stake its claim as the team to beat in a stronger and deeper ACC. The Hurricanes will keep this close with strong offensive line play. They will also force Rix into some critical mistakes. Home-field advantage will help, but Miami has too many questions at key positions (QB, RB, No. 2 WR, DT, LB, DS) to come out on top in this one. If this game was played later in the season, the outcome might be different, but the 'Noles are catching the 'Canes just at the right time.
While Rix will make some mistakes, he will also make some big plays. The Seminoles have more talent and depth at running back. Their offensive line should eventually wear down the Hurricane's front seven, which will lead to a dominating second half for the Florida State running game. FSU's cornerbacks will prevent the Hurricanes from producing enough big plays The Seminoles' kicking game is still a concern, but it won't prevent them from breaking the five-game losing streak.
Prediction: Florida State 29, Miami 26
Seminoles have edge in experience
By Steve Muench
Scouts, Inc.
The two deaths in Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden's family, along with the continued concern for the health and safety of those involved in Hurricane Frances, has cast a dark cloud over Friday night's highly anticipated meeting between the Hurricanes and Seminoles.
While these tragic events certainly put things in perspective, when Florida State and Miami take the field for 60 minutes on Friday night, the bitter rivalry will pick up right where it left off in early January.
Revenge, resiliency and two quarterbacks trying to prove they have what it takes to win the big game are just a few reasons this game should be interesting. Miami handed Florida State its first and last loss of the 2003 season. Florida State has now dropped five consecutive games to the Hurricanes and its seniors want to go out with at least one victory in this bitter rivalry.
Miami RB Frank Gore is trying to make a comeback after missing the entire 2002 season and most of the 2003 season with knee injuries. When healthy, he is very dangerous. Gore will want to prove that he has fully recovered.
Quarterbacks Chris Rix and Brock Berlin have failed to live up to expectations. Both are looking to use Monday night's game as a jumping off point for what they hope will be vindicating senior seasons.
This is also Miami's first year in the ACC. With this game significantly impacting the race for the conference championship and possibly the national championship, neither team can afford to get off to a slow start.
When Florida State has the ball
FSU run offense vs. Miami run defense
Florida State has arguably the best offensive line in the nation, which doesn't bode well for a Miami defense that lost DT Vince Wilfork (New England) and LBs D.J. Williams and Jonathan Vilma (N.Y. Jets). While Santonio Thomas played well as Wilfork's backup last year, how he handles the starting role remains to be seen. Backup Kareem Brown, who is expected to see plenty of playing time, has good quickness off the line but is undersized.
The Seminoles should have some success pounding the ball between the tackles with RB Leon Washington, who excels at picking up yards after contact. Washington will also benefit from sharing carries with Lorenzo Booker, because it will keep him fresh as Miami's front seven starts to wear down. This advantage should show up more in the second half.
Booker has great speed and Florida State will look to get him on the perimeter. He should enjoy success running behind OT Alex Barron – a powerful run blocker who is capable of driving Miami's undersized defensive ends off the ball. The key to the running game could be Rix. If Rix doesn't play well, Miami will consistently crowd the line of scrimmage with eight-man fronts.
Advantage: Florida State
FSU pass offense vs. Miami pass defense
Bowden wants to get his backs and tight ends more involved in the passing game. The Seminoles should waste little time working toward that goal. With Miami losing all three starting linebackers from a year ago, Florida State can help the inconsistent Rix get into a rhythm by throwing to the backs and tight ends underneath. Washington and Booker have the ability to turn the short pass into a long gain, so Miami's linebackers must make sure to wrap them up quickly.
After primarily playing a base cover-2 defense in 2002, Miami defensive coordinator Randy Shannon was far more aggressive last year. With the speed and talent at corner to hold up in man coverage again this year, Shannon can keep Rix off-balance by mixing his schemes up. Don't be misled by Rix's four years of starting experience. He is a poor decision-maker who has problems reading defenses and will throw into coverage. The key will be the play of the two new starters at safety. The Seminoles run a lot of play action so FS Brandon Merriweather and SS Greg Threat must be disciplined without losing their aggressiveness against the run. If they stay in position, the newcomers should have some opportunities to make big plays.
One of the biggest weapons in this game is Florida State WR Craphonso Thorpe. Thorpe caught 11 touchdowns and averaged 19.5 yards a catch last year. However, don't expect him to post great numbers against the Hurricanes, as he is matched up one-on-one against one of the finest cover corners in the nation, Antrel Rolle. Rolle, who has terrific size, strength and speed for the position, played a critical part in holding Larry Fitzgerald to just three catches for 26 yards last year. He has good size and is fast enough to run with Thorpe downfield, so Rix shouldn't test him often. With Rolle blanketing Thorpe, the rest of the Seminoles' receiving corps, including Chauncey Stovall and Lorne Sam, will need to come of age quickly.
Advantage: Miami
When Miami has the ball
Miami run offense vs. Florida State run defense
The biggest wildcard in this game is Gore. Gore has sustained two serious knee injuries and there is reason to believe he has lost the explosiveness he showed earlier in his career. Florida State's linebacking corps is talented and deep despite losing Michael Boulware (Seahawks) to the draft. SLB Ernie Sims and WLB A.J. Nicholson are both capable of preventing a less-than 100-percent Gore from turning the corner.
Miami may have the second best offensive line in the nation. The unit is quick and athletic. Berlin's inconsistency last year and the lack of a playmaking receiver will ensure that Gore will face plenty of eight-man fronts. SS Jerome Carter plays with a mean streak and does a good job of filling against the run. Without the receiving threat at tight end that Miami had in Kellen Winslow last year, Carter won't be as worried about play action.
Advantage: Florida State
Miami pass offense vs. Florida State pass defense
LOT Eric Winston's ability to handle RDE Eric Moore will be critical to Miami's success in the passing game. If the Hurricanes don't have to help out Winston, who is an outstanding pass blocker, they can then send their back or tight end out as receivers.
The Miami backs need to play a big role in this game. While WR Ryan Moore is an emerging superstar, Florida State CB Bryant McFadden has the size and speed to limit his production in this game. WR Roscoe Parish, who will start opposite Moore, is an undersized possession receiver coming off a second knee surgery. Seminoles' defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews is expected to run a lot of press coverage this year. Until Parrish proves he can beat them over the top, the Florida State corners will be extremely aggressive and will try to muscle Parrish out of his routes.
The second reason Winston must have a big game is to help keep Berlin comfortable. Berlin doesn't always handle pressure well and is a streaky quarterback. If Moore has success getting to him early, Berlin may start to rush his throws and make some mistakes.
Advantage: Florida State
Special teams
Florida State PK Xavier Beitia missed the potential game-winning field goal wide right in the Orange Bowl last year. With this game at the Orange Bowl and Beitia seeing his first action this year, the potential for a missed field goal attempt is there.
Miami has the weapons to make a big play in the return game. Parrish, Rolle and Devin Hester are all threats to go the distance every time they touch the ball. Although PK Jon Peattie can be somewhat inconsistent, he has a powerful leg and connected on five of his seven field-goal attempts from beyond 40 yards last year. The Hurricane's special teams have played a big role in their five-game win streak over the Seminoles and this unit will have to play exceptionally well for Miami to make it six straight wins.
Advantage: Miami
Bottom line
Expect Florida State to end Miami's streak and stake its claim as the team to beat in a stronger and deeper ACC. The Hurricanes will keep this close with strong offensive line play. They will also force Rix into some critical mistakes. Home-field advantage will help, but Miami has too many questions at key positions (QB, RB, No. 2 WR, DT, LB, DS) to come out on top in this one. If this game was played later in the season, the outcome might be different, but the 'Noles are catching the 'Canes just at the right time.
While Rix will make some mistakes, he will also make some big plays. The Seminoles have more talent and depth at running back. Their offensive line should eventually wear down the Hurricane's front seven, which will lead to a dominating second half for the Florida State running game. FSU's cornerbacks will prevent the Hurricanes from producing enough big plays The Seminoles' kicking game is still a concern, but it won't prevent them from breaking the five-game losing streak.
Prediction: Florida State 29, Miami 26